Don't look now..

[imb]

The Cubs still have a chance, and really, 9.5 games isn't that much ground to make up (just ask the 69 Mets). If we win four straight we could feasibly be just 5.5 games out.

 

This is highly unlikely, of course, but there's a chance.

 

Now with that said, this happens all the time. The Cubs play a good stretch of games, get me all excited, then proceed to lose their next 8.

 

That isn't how it works, at all. 9.5 games back may not seem like a large number, but it is compounded greatly by the fact that there are eleven teams in front of the Cubs. The fact that three of those eleven, not counting St. Louis, which makes it four (out of twelve, that's 33%) are from our own conference make it just about as impossible as impossible can be that the Cubs can make the postseason.

[wekse]

c'mon imb....you're such a buzz kill.

[Mizzou]

The Cubs still have a chance, and really, 9.5 games isn't that much ground to make up (just ask the 69 Mets). If we win four straight we could feasibly be just 5.5 games out.

 

This is highly unlikely, of course, but there's a chance.

 

Now with that said, this happens all the time. The Cubs play a good stretch of games, get me all excited, then proceed to lose their next 8.

 

That isn't how it works, at all. 9.5 games back may not seem like a large number, but it is compounded greatly by the fact that there are eleven teams in front of the Cubs. The fact that three of those eleven, not counting St. Louis, which makes it four (out of twelve, that's 33%) are from our own conference make it just about as impossible as impossible can be that the Cubs can make the postseason.

What do you mean that's not how it works? Prior to tonight's games, I said that if the Cubs won their next 4, they could FEASIBLY be 5.5 games out. And... well, that was true. Of course, the Reds won so that no longer can be said, but it was 100% accurate at the time.

[hawkeyecub]

Look at it this way, there are 50 games remaining. The Cubs would have to go 35-15 to get to 83-79 and have a slim chance. That's playing .700 ball for almost 1/3 of the season. Plus that would have to come on top of the 11 games we've won in our last 15. That means finishing the season 46-19.

Possible, yes. But it's incredibly unlikely with this team.

 

When you go 5-26 for a month, even playing .700 baseball for over 40% of the season (in a very down league) won't save you.

[FergieJ31]

Earlier this year someone posted a link to this BP site that posts updated playoff probabilities:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

 

One thing struck me when I glanced at it earlier today: the probability the Cubs make the playoffs is almost exactly the probability the Mets don't make the playoffs.

[soccer10k]

Earlier this year someone posted a link to this BP site that posts updated playoff probabilities:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

 

One thing struck me when I glanced at it earlier today: the probability the Cubs make the playoffs is almost exactly the probability the Mets don't make the playoffs.

 

One thing that struck me: Even though the Tigers are 9 games ahead of the Mets for the best record in the league, the Mets had a higher probability of making the playoffs.

[NorthsideAvenger]

That's the funny thing about baseball, anything can happen.

 

With that said....even before the Cubs could realisitically start talking Wild Card, they'd have to catch the Brewers, then the next team, then the following team.

 

So for me to have rooting interests in the Cubs they would have to do the following before September:

 

1: The Cubs have 21 games left in August. So far the Cubs are 5-2 in August. Meaning they have a total of 28 games this month. They would have to go somewhere along the lines of 20-8 for the month (15-6 from NOW) anything worse, then forget it.

 

2: If the Cubs managed to pull off said HOT month, and finish the month at 20-8, they'd still have to jump at least 4 teams (Milwaukee/Houston and TWO NL west teams).

 

In other words, by the start of September, the Cubs would have to be in no worse then 3rd place in the NL Central, and within atleast 5 games of both the NL Central and the Wild Card. And for that to happen, what breaks they DIDN'T get earlier this yr, this must get now. The Cubs would have to be the hottest team in baseball, and a few teams in the Wild Card would have to go "cold turkey" for the Cubs to have a chance.

 

Again with that said, I don't see that happening, cause the Cubs are not mentally tough for that assignment, especially with Lee out.

[soccer10k]

If the Cubs played the Cardinals in Wrigley every day for the rest of the year, then I would put money on them to make the playoffs. Otherwise, not going to happen.

[RynoRules]

The Cubs still have a chance, and really, 9.5 games isn't that much ground to make up (just ask the 69 Mets). If we win four straight we could feasibly be just 5.5 games out.

 

This is highly unlikely, of course, but there's a chance.

 

Now with that said, this happens all the time. The Cubs play a good stretch of games, get me all excited, then proceed to lose their next 8.

 

That isn't how it works, at all. 9.5 games back may not seem like a large number, but it is compounded greatly by the fact that there are eleven teams in front of the Cubs. The fact that three of those eleven, not counting St. Louis, which makes it four (out of twelve, that's 33%) are from our own conference make it just about as impossible as impossible can be that the Cubs can make the postseason.

What do you mean that's not how it works? Prior to tonight's games, I said that if the Cubs won their next 4, they could FEASIBLY be 5.5 games out. And... well, that was true. Of course, the Reds won so that no longer can be said, but it was 100% accurate at the time.

 

Not trying to kill your buzz man - really I am not - but if any of those nine or ten teams in front of us play each other, I don't think it is mathematically possible for use to pick up four games in the way you describe.

[Bull]

Earlier this year someone posted a link to this BP site that posts updated playoff probabilities:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

 

One thing struck me when I glanced at it earlier today: the probability the Cubs make the playoffs is almost exactly the probability the Mets don't make the playoffs.

 

One thing that struck me: Even though the Tigers are 9 games ahead of the Mets for the best record in the league, the Mets had a higher probability of making the playoffs.

 

One thing that struck me...

 

Because of the number of teams ahead of them in the Wild Card, the Cubs are more likely to win the division than the wild card.

 

Not gonna happen, boys.

[cheapseats]

Earlier this year someone posted a link to this BP site that posts updated playoff probabilities:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

 

One thing struck me when I glanced at it earlier today: the probability the Cubs make the playoffs is almost exactly the probability the Mets don't make the playoffs.

 

One thing that struck me: Even though the Tigers are 9 games ahead of the Mets for the best record in the league, the Mets had a higher probability of making the playoffs.

 

There are two other good teams in the AL Central and two very good teams in the AL East. The AL West will get one playoff spot, of course, so there are five contenders playing for the three remaining spots.

 

The Mets could falter and still make the playoffs because of the mediocrity in the NL.

[Abe Frohman]

The Cubs can't win it with only Zambrano. This is not a playoff team, I keep telling myself.

 

This is baseball, however. The Cubs have been underacheiving ALL YEAR. You never know, but you have to realize that it is a pipe dream.

[CheeseHead Cubs Fan]

Realism = no, they are not going to the playoffs. However, as a fan, it is enjoyable to watch them as of late. I would like to see them dig out of the under .500 hole and at least make 06 a somewhat respectable season.

 

Now, go sweep Milwaukee please!

[goonys evil twin]

Realism = no, they are not going to the playoffs. However, as a fan, it is enjoyable to watch them as of late. I would like to see them dig out of the under .500 hole and at least make 06 a somewhat respectable season.

 

Now, go sweep Milwaukee please!

 

Respectable to me is a very bad goal to set. Respectable reaks of mediocrity, and appreciating respectability is akin to accepting mediocrity. Even if they finish 82-80, what would be a strong finish, this season would be a disaster. You can't just judge a season based on how you play the last two months. Games in April, May and June count, even though the Cubs often downplay the risk of losing lots of them. A "respectable" finish to 2006 is only going to mean sustained mediocrity, which is going to keep this team locked into the cycle of mediocrity that has plagued them for so many years.

[hawkeyecub]

Realism = no, they are not going to the playoffs. However, as a fan, it is enjoyable to watch them as of late. I would like to see them dig out of the under .500 hole and at least make 06 a somewhat respectable season.

 

Now, go sweep Milwaukee please!

 

Respectable to me is a very bad goal to set. Respectable reaks of mediocrity, and appreciating respectability is akin to accepting mediocrity. Even if they finish 82-80, what would be a strong finish, this season would be a disaster. You can't just judge a season based on how you play the last two months. Games in April, May and June count, even though the Cubs often downplay the risk of losing lots of them. A "respectable" finish to 2006 is only going to mean sustained mediocrity, which is going to keep this team locked into the cycle of mediocrity that has plagued them for so many years.

 

I don't think anyone set that as a goal until that was the highest goal to set. This season has been a total disaster and will be a major failure unless we pull off an incredible run over the last 50 games.

 

If they get to 81 wins it will have meant that they went 51-30 in the last half of the season. That doesn't mean the season isn't a failure and I agree with you that it shouldn't mean this season is viewed in a positive light or excuses anyone from blame. But it's pretty much the best possible result after an incredibly horrible two months.

Most importantly it will mean that a lot of pieces we'll be counting on next year (Ramirez, Murton, Barrett, Zambrano, the young starters, the bullpen) likely played pretty well for about half of the season. That's important heading into next year where this team can win if the right moves are made.

Plus I still watch/listen to most all of the games and it's a lot more enjoyable to see them play like they have for the last two weeks than they did in May and June.

[goonys evil twin]

I don't think anyone set that as a goal until that was the highest goal to set. This season has been a total disaster and will be a major failure unless we pull off an incredible run over the last 50 games.

 

If they get to 81 wins it will have meant that they went 51-30 in the last half of the season. That doesn't mean the season isn't a failure and I agree with you that it shouldn't mean this season is viewed in a positive light or excuses anyone from blame.

 

The problem is that it will be viewed as a trememdous accomplishment, by the media, by Dusty, by Hendry and management. They will all pat themselves on the back and try the same failed crap next season, mistakenly thinking that 3 months of success will carry into 6 months of success next season. That reinforces that mediocrity is still an acceptable goal for the team.

 

But it's pretty much the best possible result after an incredibly horrible two months.

 

No it isn't. The best possible result was firing Hendry and Baker 2 months ago and completely changing the direction of this misguided franchise. Stabile mediocrity is still mediocrity.

 

Most importantly it will mean that a lot of pieces we'll be counting on next year (Ramirez, Murton, Barrett, Zambrano, the young starters, the bullpen) likely played pretty well for about half of the season. That's important heading into next year where this team can win if the right moves are made.

Plus I still watch/listen to most all of the games and it's a lot more enjoyable to see them play like they have for the last two weeks than they did in May and June.

 

It is more enjoyable to see them play well and win. The big picture problem, however, is that winning a few more games now does absolutely nothing to ensure 2007 is better. And we can always count on the Cubs to screw up the offseason.

[wild_cubs71]

Realism = no, they are not going to the playoffs. However, as a fan, it is enjoyable to watch them as of late. I would like to see them dig out of the under .500 hole and at least make 06 a somewhat respectable season.

 

Now, go sweep Milwaukee please!

 

Respectable to me is a very bad goal to set. Respectable reaks of mediocrity, and appreciating respectability is akin to accepting mediocrity. Even if they finish 82-80, what would be a strong finish, this season would be a disaster. You can't just judge a season based on how you play the last two months. Games in April, May and June count, even though the Cubs often downplay the risk of losing lots of them. A "respectable" finish to 2006 is only going to mean sustained mediocrity, which is going to keep this team locked into the cycle of mediocrity that has plagued them for so many years.

 

He's just saying the same thing your Sig says...

[goonys evil twin]

Realism = no, they are not going to the playoffs. However, as a fan, it is enjoyable to watch them as of late. I would like to see them dig out of the under .500 hole and at least make 06 a somewhat respectable season.

 

Now, go sweep Milwaukee please!

 

Respectable to me is a very bad goal to set. Respectable reaks of mediocrity, and appreciating respectability is akin to accepting mediocrity. Even if they finish 82-80, what would be a strong finish, this season would be a disaster. You can't just judge a season based on how you play the last two months. Games in April, May and June count, even though the Cubs often downplay the risk of losing lots of them. A "respectable" finish to 2006 is only going to mean sustained mediocrity, which is going to keep this team locked into the cycle of mediocrity that has plagued them for so many years.

 

He's just saying the same thing your Sig says...

 

I know, and my inclusion of that line (Dusty said something like that several weeks ago) is a sarcastic reminder of how pathetic this team is. They aren't a threat for world series contention, this year or anytime soon, because all they want to do is contend within the division and make it respectable.

[CubinNY]

I don't think anyone set that as a goal until that was the highest goal to set. This season has been a total disaster and will be a major failure unless we pull off an incredible run over the last 50 games.

 

If they get to 81 wins it will have meant that they went 51-30 in the last half of the season. That doesn't mean the season isn't a failure and I agree with you that it shouldn't mean this season is viewed in a positive light or excuses anyone from blame.

 

The problem is that it will be viewed as a trememdous accomplishment, by the media, by Dusty, by Hendry and management. They will all pat themselves on the back and try the same failed crap next season, mistakenly thinking that 3 months of success will carry into 6 months of success next season. That reinforces that mediocrity is still an acceptable goal for the team.

 

Exactly. They will talk about injuries and being "snake bitten".

[wild_cubs71]

Realism = no, they are not going to the playoffs. However, as a fan, it is enjoyable to watch them as of late. I would like to see them dig out of the under .500 hole and at least make 06 a somewhat respectable season.

 

Now, go sweep Milwaukee please!

 

Respectable to me is a very bad goal to set. Respectable reaks of mediocrity, and appreciating respectability is akin to accepting mediocrity. Even if they finish 82-80, what would be a strong finish, this season would be a disaster. You can't just judge a season based on how you play the last two months. Games in April, May and June count, even though the Cubs often downplay the risk of losing lots of them. A "respectable" finish to 2006 is only going to mean sustained mediocrity, which is going to keep this team locked into the cycle of mediocrity that has plagued them for so many years.

 

He's just saying the same thing your Sig says...

 

I know, and my inclusion of that line (Dusty said something like that several weeks ago) is a sarcastic reminder of how pathetic this team is. They aren't a threat for world series contention, this year or anytime soon, because all they want to do is contend within the division and make it respectable.

 

Oh, I agree 150%, it was just there :wink:

[Guest]

I want a top three draft pick as compensation for this ugly season.

 

The Cubs are screwing that up, too.

[ZiggyTaxi]

I want a top three draft pick as compensation for this ugly season.

 

The Cubs are screwing that up, too.

 

Exactly. The Cubs can't get anything right. It is weird to root for your team to lose, but I feel it would do the team a lot better; however, that is all moot if Hendry goes after his toolsy guys once again.

[CheeseHead Cubs Fan]

Realism = no, they are not going to the playoffs. However, as a fan, it is enjoyable to watch them as of late. I would like to see them dig out of the under .500 hole and at least make 06 a somewhat respectable season.

 

Now, go sweep Milwaukee please!

 

Respectable to me is a very bad goal to set. Respectable reaks of mediocrity, and appreciating respectability is akin to accepting mediocrity. Even if they finish 82-80, what would be a strong finish, this season would be a disaster. You can't just judge a season based on how you play the last two months. Games in April, May and June count, even though the Cubs often downplay the risk of losing lots of them. A "respectable" finish to 2006 is only going to mean sustained mediocrity, which is going to keep this team locked into the cycle of mediocrity that has plagued them for so many years.

 

First off, I never set "respectable" as a goal for the Cubs season. We all wanted different, I can't stand the way the team has played the majority of they year and once again will be disappointed come October.

 

However, given the first half of the season and literally feeling like we wouldn't score a run the entire series; it is a welcome change since the Milwaukee series just before the AS break. Outside of the Nationals series and a few loses that we should have won, I enjoy seeing the Cubs win as of late.

 

I am not sure how you can argue wanting the Cubs win and then spin your argument into accepting mediocrity.

[UMFan83]

This thread sucks

[C.C.]

Realism = no, they are not going to the playoffs. However, as a fan, it is enjoyable to watch them as of late. I would like to see them dig out of the under .500 hole and at least make 06 a somewhat respectable season.

 

Now, go sweep Milwaukee please!

 

Respectable to me is a very bad goal to set. Respectable reaks of mediocrity, and appreciating respectability is akin to accepting mediocrity. Even if they finish 82-80, what would be a strong finish, this season would be a disaster. You can't just judge a season based on how you play the last two months. Games in April, May and June count, even though the Cubs often downplay the risk of losing lots of them. A "respectable" finish to 2006 is only going to mean sustained mediocrity, which is going to keep this team locked into the cycle of mediocrity that has plagued them for so many years.

 

First off, I never set "respectable" as a goal for the Cubs season. We all wanted different, I can't stand the way the team has played the majority of they year and once again will be disappointed come October.

 

However, given the first half of the season and literally feeling like we wouldn't score a run the entire series; it is a welcome change since the Milwaukee series just before the AS break. Outside of the Nationals series and a few loses that we should have won, I enjoy seeing the Cubs win as of late.

 

I am not sure how you can argue wanting the Cubs win and then spin your argument into accepting mediocrity.

 

I agree with you. I understand the whole "Respectable should not be accepted", but it's nice to see the team battling everyday and winning on a regular basis. It certainly helps players like Murton, Pagan, Cedeno, Marshall, Marmol, Hill gain confidence, and hopefully they can continue to progress into next year. I'd rather see this, then the team just packing in the season.