2B in 2007

[cubfan1955]

It certainly is possible that Cedeno will be as good or better than Izturis offensively in 3 years. Cedeno can even make up the year he lost (Izturis's 1st year as a starter was when he was 22, Cedeno 23) if he doesn't get injured like Izturis does. I just don't think he's going to get that much better than Izturis is now, and so I'd rather take the sure thing. It is the same way I felt about the Choi-Lee trade-Lee then was about the player that I thought Choi could be if he developed, so we might as well take the sure thing. Izturis also has potential to improve-many of the great defensive shortstops over the years didn't really start hitting any better than Izturis is until they were 28, 29, 30. Izturis has the same hitting progression until he got hurt, and hasn't had the time since then to see if he can continue that progression.

And Ronny won't improve too?

[sethuel1]

How many runs will Izturis save us over the course of a season with his defense?

 

I think he can save us 30-40 runs a year on defense. He can make 4-5 extra outs per week, which will save us 1-2 runs a week. These will come from partly some balls that he can get to that other people cannot, and partly doing things like turning more double plays effectively when he gets the chance.

 

I think he can build a spaceship out of cardboard and dreams.

 

Damn you. I just spit water on computer screen at work.

 

Sorry bout that.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

How many runs will Izturis save us over the course of a season with his defense?

 

I think he can save us 30-40 runs a year on defense. He can make 4-5 extra outs per week, which will save us 1-2 runs a week. These will come from partly some balls that he can get to that other people cannot, and partly doing things like turning more double plays effectively when he gets the chance.

 

I think 30-40 is on the high side, but whatever. How many runs would someone like Tejada get us over the course of a season with his offense?

 

Hmm-well, I'd say again about 4-5 hits a week, but that will cause us to get 2-3 extra runs a week because some of those will be XBH, so more like 55-60 runs. The difference between the top 5 shortstops and everyone else offensively is too high to make up for the change in defense.

 

But defensively, Tejada is actually very close to being right on par with Izturis making this look even uglier to me.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/tejadmi01.shtml

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/izturce01.shtml

[sethuel1]

How many runs will Izturis save us over the course of a season with his defense?

 

I think he can save us 30-40 runs a year on defense. He can make 4-5 extra outs per week, which will save us 1-2 runs a week. These will come from partly some balls that he can get to that other people cannot, and partly doing things like turning more double plays effectively when he gets the chance.

 

I think 30-40 is on the high side, but whatever. How many runs would someone like Tejada get us over the course of a season with his offense?

 

Hmm-well, I'd say again about 4-5 hits a week, but that will cause us to get 2-3 extra runs a week because some of those will be XBH, so more like 55-60 runs. The difference between the top 5 shortstops and everyone else offensively is too high to make up for the change in defense.

 

But defensively, Tejada is actually very close to being right on par with Izturis making this look even uglier to me.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/tejadmi01.shtml

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/izturce01.shtml

 

I personally enjoy the fact that Izturis' Gold Glove came in a season where he had a FRAA that was negative.

[CubColtPacer]

How many runs will Izturis save us over the course of a season with his defense?

 

I think he can save us 30-40 runs a year on defense. He can make 4-5 extra outs per week, which will save us 1-2 runs a week. These will come from partly some balls that he can get to that other people cannot, and partly doing things like turning more double plays effectively when he gets the chance.

 

I think 30-40 is on the high side, but whatever. How many runs would someone like Tejada get us over the course of a season with his offense?

 

Hmm-well, I'd say again about 4-5 hits a week, but that will cause us to get 2-3 extra runs a week because some of those will be XBH, so more like 55-60 runs. The difference between the top 5 shortstops and everyone else offensively is too high to make up for the change in defense.

 

But defensively, Tejada is actually very close to being right on par with Izturis making this look even uglier to me.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/tejadmi01.shtml

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/izturce01.shtml

 

I cannot watch the two shortstops and conclude they are the same defensively. Who has the better range? Izturis. Who commits less errors? Izturis. Getting to balls and not making errors are the two main things that a shortstop is supposed to do on defense, and Izturis is noticeably better on both. (Note: I compared the defensive impact to somebody like Furcal, and I compared offensively to a player like Izturis-I didn't know you wanted to compare to Tejada when this discussion started-Izturis would only have a 15-20 run impact over Tejada on defense, and of course then, Tejada is a much better player than Izturis will probably ever be)

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I personally enjoy the fact that Izturis' Gold Glove came in a season where he had a FRAA that was negative.

 

That's one award that should go away and never come back. It has no meaning, and I hate hearing it used as the only valuable piece of a player's game. In fact, last night I heard 3 different places refer to Izturis as a "2-time Gold Glover and former all-star". First of all, it was 1. Secondly, it doesn't mean a damn thing. And finally, Mark Redman was an all-star.

[Exile on Waveland]

How many runs will Izturis save us over the course of a season with his defense?

 

I think he can save us 30-40 runs a year on defense. He can make 4-5 extra outs per week, which will save us 1-2 runs a week. These will come from partly some balls that he can get to that other people cannot, and partly doing things like turning more double plays effectively when he gets the chance.

 

I think he can build a spaceship out of cardboard and dreams.

 

Damn you. I just spit water on computer screen at work.

 

Sorry bout that.

 

Nah, we need some entertainment here at work.

 

(I'm going to blame some water-induced computer malfunction for the missing "my" in my previous post.)

 

Edited for spelling stupidity.

Edited August 1, 2006 by Exile on Waveland

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I cannot watch the two shortstops and conclude they are the same defensively. Who has the better range? Izturis. Who commits less errors? Izturis. Getting to balls and not making errors are the two main things that a shortstop is supposed to do on defense, and Izturis is noticeably better on both. (Note: I compared the defensive impact to somebody like Furcal, and I compared offensively to a player like Izturis-I didn't know you wanted to compare to Tejada when this discussion started-Izturis would only have a 15-20 run impact over Tejada on defense, and of course then, Tejada is a much better player than Izturis will probably ever be)

 

Izturis is marginally better defensively. He's not the wizard some are proclaiming him to be. He is horrible offensively. Horrible. His defense will not provide enough value to make up for that.

[CubColtPacer]

I cannot watch the two shortstops and conclude they are the same defensively. Who has the better range? Izturis. Who commits less errors? Izturis. Getting to balls and not making errors are the two main things that a shortstop is supposed to do on defense, and Izturis is noticeably better on both. (Note: I compared the defensive impact to somebody like Furcal, and I compared offensively to a player like Izturis-I didn't know you wanted to compare to Tejada when this discussion started-Izturis would only have a 15-20 run impact over Tejada on defense, and of course then, Tejada is a much better player than Izturis will probably ever be)

 

Izturis is marginally better defensively. He's not the wizard some are proclaiming him to be. He is horrible offensively. Horrible. His defense will not provide enough value to make up for that.

 

He is only 50-60 points OPS wise away from being average at shortstop, and I think he could be much closer to average OPS next season (or if he gets hot this season-this season's numbers are going to fluctuate wildly the next couple of weeks). I think he can make up that with his defense to at least become an average player.

[abuck1220]

How many runs will Izturis save us over the course of a season with his defense?

 

I think he can save us 30-40 runs a year on defense. He can make 4-5 extra outs per week, which will save us 1-2 runs a week. These will come from partly some balls that he can get to that other people cannot, and partly doing things like turning more double plays effectively when he gets the chance.

 

I think 30-40 is on the high side, but whatever. How many runs would someone like Tejada get us over the course of a season with his offense?

 

Hmm-well, I'd say again about 4-5 hits a week, but that will cause us to get 2-3 extra runs a week because some of those will be XBH, so more like 55-60 runs. The difference between the top 5 shortstops and everyone else offensively is too high to make up for the change in defense.

 

first of all, no way he takes away 5 hits a week. that's crazy. second of all, i'd love to see a play where a shortstop takes away an extra base hit.

 

Uh-the last one you quoted was Tejada's offense, which is where the XBH came into play.

 

you're right...too many quotes...

[C.C.]

I can't believe all this hatred towards Izturis? I don't get it. We just improved our defense a ton and sure his offense isn't the best, but he's 26 years old. He still is improving. Let him play a game in a Cubs uniform before we start to boo him. I remember all the negative posts when we got Barrett. Now he's one of the best offensive catchers in the game.

[Chocolate Milk]

I can't believe all this hatred towards Izturis? I don't get it. We just improved our defense a ton and sure his offense isn't the best, but he's 26 years old. He still is improving. Let him play a game in a Cubs uniform before we start to boo him. I remember all the negative posts when we got Barrett. Now he's one of the best offensive catchers in the game.

 

No one "hates" Izturis. We just think he sucks, because he does.

[USSoccer]

I can't believe all this hatred towards Izturis? I don't get it. We just improved our defense a ton and sure his offense isn't the best, but he's 26 years old. He still is improving. Let him play a game in a Cubs uniform before we start to boo him. I remember all the negative posts when we got Barrett. Now he's one of the best offensive catchers in the game.

 

Trouble is, Barrett's peripheral numbers indicated room for improvement. Izturis' do not.

 

And as far as his defense goes, until we have a sinkerballer on our staff, defense at SS means relatively little. Going from Cedeno to Izturis isn't that big a leap. He's not going to save us "1 run a game".

Edited August 1, 2006 by USSoccer

[frostwyrm]

I can't believe all this hatred towards Izturis? I don't get it. We just improved our defense a ton and sure his offense isn't the best, but he's 26 years old. He still is improving. Let him play a game in a Cubs uniform before we start to boo him. I remember all the negative posts when we got Barrett. Now he's one of the best offensive catchers in the game.

Izturis' defense is "a ton" better than Neifi's?

[sethuel1]

I can't believe all this hatred towards Izturis? I don't get it. We just improved our defense a ton and sure his offense isn't the best, but he's 26 years old. He still is improving. Let him play a game in a Cubs uniform before we start to boo him. I remember all the negative posts when we got Barrett. Now he's one of the best offensive catchers in the game.

1. Nobody said anything about booing him.

2. We didn't really improve our defense.

3. A lot more people were positive on the Barrett trade, mostly because his contract was cheap, especially as compared to Izturis'.

[rawaction]

i love that those that like this trade are looking for izturis to regain his 2004 form -- when he posted a stellar .711 OPS. yeah, that's something to be excited about.

 

I think those that are somewhat happy with this deal are happy for 2 reasons

1) Yes, a 711 OPS is not that great-but it's about average for a shortstop-average OBP, slightly below average slugging for a shortstop. Combine that with his great defense, and you have a pretty good shortstop.

2)If the choice at short is Izturis or Cedeno, Izturis is a much better player. He is better offensively, and much better defensively. He won't be nearly the hole that Cedeno has been in the lineup-so this is an upgrade in talent. Now we'll see if Hendry can find the offensive player to play at second to go with him.

 

I'm sorry, but none of that is true. Izturis is bad. Defense doesn't make him good. Cedeno can and will get better, Izturis can't and won't (at least when compared to his 04).

 

Why won't he get better? Is there something that you know that no one else knows? Check out Omar Vizquel's stats his first few years in the league. They weren't that good and he turned out to be a pretty good hitter. I've never seen Izturis over an extended period of time, but Vizquel's name seems to pop up a lot when measuring his D against another player.

 

And Vizquel is a career .702 OPS hitter. He's also a career .090 ISOD hitter, something Izturis has never approached. As I said, Izturis won't get better than his 04 numbers, which he is about 80 points off of for his career. I will give you that he can possibly approach those numbers and maintain them for a few years....but a .711 OPS isn't anything to write home about. It still sucks, frankly.

 

Vizquel has always had a better eye at the plate than Izturis. That will always be the difference between the 2.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I can't believe all this hatred towards Izturis? I don't get it. We just improved our defense a ton and sure his offense isn't the best, but he's 26 years old. He still is improving. Let him play a game in a Cubs uniform before we start to boo him. I remember all the negative posts when we got Barrett. Now he's one of the best offensive catchers in the game.

 

It's not hatred toward Izturis. It's hatred toward the idea of Izturis. DEFENSE UP THE MIDDLE WAS NOT THIS TEAM'S PROBLEM.

[C.C.]

Going from Cedeno to Izturis isn't that big a leap.

 

It's a very big leap. How many plays did Cedeno botch up this year? He's got 16 errors in 98 games this year. Izturis is superior to Cedeno at SS. I think Cedeno will fit well at the 2b position. Again lets just let the season play out...

[Pickle]

i love that those that like this trade are looking for izturis to regain his 2004 form -- when he posted a stellar .711 OPS. yeah, that's something to be excited about.

 

I think those that are somewhat happy with this deal are happy for 2 reasons

1) Yes, a 711 OPS is not that great-but it's about average for a shortstop-average OBP, slightly below average slugging for a shortstop. Combine that with his great defense, and you have a pretty good shortstop.

2)If the choice at short is Izturis or Cedeno, Izturis is a much better player. He is better offensively, and much better defensively. He won't be nearly the hole that Cedeno has been in the lineup-so this is an upgrade in talent. Now we'll see if Hendry can find the offensive player to play at second to go with him.

 

I'm sorry, but none of that is true. Izturis is bad. Defense doesn't make him good. Cedeno can and will get better, Izturis can't and won't (at least when compared to his 04).

 

Why won't he get better? Is there something that you know that no one else knows? Check out Omar Vizquel's stats his first few years in the league. They weren't that good and he turned out to be a pretty good hitter. I've never seen Izturis over an extended period of time, but Vizquel's name seems to pop up a lot when measuring his D against another player.

 

And Vizquel is a career .702 OPS hitter. He's also a career .090 ISOD hitter, something Izturis has never approached. As I said, Izturis won't get better than his 04 numbers, which he is about 80 points off of for his career. I will give you that he can possibly approach those numbers and maintain them for a few years....but a .711 OPS isn't anything to write home about. It still sucks, frankly.

 

Vizquel has always had a better eye at the plate than Izturis. That will always be the difference between the 2.

 

That's why I said look at Vizquel's stats for his first few years in the league. Let's even narrow that down into when he played in Seattle. Did you look at those stats? Yeah, not so good. I'd go into posting the numbers, but I'm lazy.

[frostwyrm]

Going from Cedeno to Izturis isn't that big a leap.

 

It's a very big leap. How many plays did Cedeno botch up this year? He's got 16 errors in 98 games this year. Izturis is superior to Cedeno at SS. I think Cedeno will fit well at the 2b position. Again lets just let the season play out...

Then why not just let Neifi be the starting SS? Where's the need for Izturis when Neifi is under contract for 2007?

[USSoccer]

Going from Cedeno to Izturis isn't that big a leap.

 

It's a very big leap. How many plays did Cedeno botch up this year? He's got 16 errors in 98 games this year. Izturis is superior to Cedeno at SS. I think Cedeno will fit well at the 2b position. Again lets just let the season play out...

 

So in your mind if Izturis had played SS instead of Cedeno this season, we'd have how many more wins?

 

Defense means very, very, very little in baseball. Pitching and hitting. That's what wins, in that order. If you have strikeout pitchers, your defense matters little. We have Z and Prior. If you have flyball pitchers, your infield defense doesn't have as much impact on the game as people think. Prior, Marshall, Rusch (ha), Wood, and Hill are all flyball pitchers. Want a FA pitcher? Zito and Schmidt are flyball and strikeout pitchers, not sinkerballers. If we had Derek Lowe, Matt Clement and Brandon Webb on our staff, I'd care more about middle IF defense.

 

Izturis is a better SS at this point, but it's not enough of a difference overall for the team for me to care about it.

Edited August 1, 2006 by USSoccer

[CubColtPacer]

Going from Cedeno to Izturis isn't that big a leap.

 

It's a very big leap. How many plays did Cedeno botch up this year? He's got 16 errors in 98 games this year. Izturis is superior to Cedeno at SS. I think Cedeno will fit well at the 2b position. Again lets just let the season play out...

Then why not just let Neifi be the starting SS? Where's the need for Izturis when Neifi is under contract for 2007?

 

Because Izturis will be better defensively and offensively in 2007. He's been better in 2006 even coming off his injury, and he will probably improve slightly, while Neifi will continue to decline. Neifi's range is much more limited, which makes him a much better defensive second baseman than shortstop right now.

[C.C.]

Going from Cedeno to Izturis isn't that big a leap.

 

It's a very big leap. How many plays did Cedeno botch up this year? He's got 16 errors in 98 games this year. Izturis is superior to Cedeno at SS. I think Cedeno will fit well at the 2b position. Again lets just let the season play out...

Then why not just let Neifi be the starting SS? Where's the need for Izturis when Neifi is under contract for 2007?

 

Again, Izturis upside is greater then Neifi Perez with better range. It's worth the gamble.

[USSoccer]

Going from Cedeno to Izturis isn't that big a leap.

 

It's a very big leap. How many plays did Cedeno botch up this year? He's got 16 errors in 98 games this year. Izturis is superior to Cedeno at SS. I think Cedeno will fit well at the 2b position. Again lets just let the season play out...

Then why not just let Neifi be the starting SS? Where's the need for Izturis when Neifi is under contract for 2007?

 

Again, Izturis upside is greater then Neifi Perez with better range. It's worth the gamble.

 

Calling his upside greater than Neifi with better range is pretty crappy. He'll probably end up like Christian Guzman (his other PECOTA comp along with Vizquel).

[C.C.]

"Defense means very, very, very little in baseball. Pitching and hitting. That's what wins, in that order."

 

C'mon! Without good defense you aren't going to have good pitching. For a pitcher to be good he needs a good defense behind him. What wins in baseball is Pitching, Hitting and Defense. You have to have all three.