Analyzing the Market: Buyers and Sellers: July 3 Edition

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

It's time to look at the market again and try to assess what the Cubs should do in regards to it.

 

I've come up with three simple categories: buyers, sellers, and bubble.

To be considered a seller, the team must meet both of the criteria (and I admit it's rather arbitrary).

 

1. Be within 8 games of a playoff spot (Either division or wild card).

2. Be no more than two games under .500

 

If a team met both, I consider them a buyer. If a team met none, they became a seller. If a team met one or the other, I put them on the bubble.

 

Buyers (In no particular order):

1. Boston Red Sox

2. NY Yankees

3. Toronto Blue Jays

4. Detroit Tigers

5. Chicago White Sox

6. Minnesota Twins

7. Oakland A's

8. Seattle Mariners

9. Texas Rangers

10. NY Mets

11. St. Louis Cardinals

12. Houston Astros

13. SD Padres

14. Colorado Rockies

15. SF Giants

16. LA Dodgers

17. Arizona Diamondbacks

18. Cincinnatti Reds

 

Sellers

1. Baltimore Orioles

2. Tampa Devil Rays

3. Cleveland Indians

4. KC Royals

5. Atlanta Braves

6. Washington Nationals

7. Pitates

8. Cubs

 

Bubble

1. Milwaukee Brewers- My guess here is that they become sellers and realize that with the right moves they will be a tough team next season.

 

2. LA Angels- I figure they will buy in an attempt to get back into a weak AL West race.

 

3. Phillies- I figure they become sellers as it seems that Gillick never liked the team he took over and will use the lacksidascial play as a way to blow it up and begin with the players of his choosing.

 

4. Marlins- I don't expect them to sell (They don't have much left to sell, but they likely won't buy either.)

 

So, after looking at that list, a little over half the teams are going to be in buying mode this year.

 

What do the Cubs have to sell?

 

1. Juan Pierre. Pierre should be the Cubs first priority in the market. First, we paid dearly for him, so getting something back is a necessity. Secondly, there will be teams that might think he's just the spark they are looking for. He's hitting a little better lately and that could improve his value for teams in need of a CF/lead-off threat.

 

Would the White Sox be willing to supplant Anderson with Pierre and could the Cubs get Lance Broadway for him? If the Cubs could net Broadway from their cross-town rivals, that would at least replace some of the pitching they paid to get Pierre.

 

Another team that might have an interest in Pierre could be the Rockies. Right now, they aren't getting much production from CF with Freeman and Sullivan splitting time. Add to that their catching production is dismal, packaging Pierre with Blanco might get the Cubs a better return. Colorado might be more than willing to let the Cubs have Ryan Shealy in a deal for Pierre. While Shealy doesn't really have a spot in Chicago's line-up, he might be a nice trade chip to have in the offseason. I'd also have some interest in Franklin Morales, Chris Nelson, or Chris Iannetta.

 

The Mariners had interest in Pierre this offseason and Reed is hardly setting the world on fire as of late. They might would like to get Pierre to pair with Ichiro at the top of the order. In fact, the Mariners might be willing to send Reed back in a package for Pierre and the Cubs could hope the young CF rebounds in Chicago.

Edited July 3, 2006 by vance_the_cubs_fan

[Mark Priors Calves]

It's July 3.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

2. Greg Maddux- Trading Maddux is trickier than trading Pierre. The Cubs may feel it's a bad PR move to let the popular veteran go a second time. On the other hand, Maddux's agent is Scott Boras. It isn't likely Maddux is going to sign quickly and the arbitration deadline is going to be tricky to navigate, so it might be best for the Cubs to get something for him than wait too late and get nothing.

 

Waiting too late may be what the Cubs have already done, however. Maddux's value is dropping faster than your Beanie Baby collection did in the late nineties. There may be a few teams (namely those in the NL West) that will want the veteran down the stretch, but while the Cubs might have commanded a top prospect in late May or early June for Maddux, that isn't likely to happen now.

 

So where could Maddux go? As much as it makes me cringe, how about St. Louis? The injury to Mulder has forced Ponson back into the rotation. Would LaRussa and Duncan feel more comfortable with Maddux on the hill. The Cardinals would have a good defense behind him and Maddux may fit in well with that team. If Maddux were packaged with Scott Williamson would the Cardinals sweeten the pot to include one of their better prospects in either Colby Rasmus or Tyler Greene?

 

Another possible destination for Maddux could be San Diego. George Kottaras might be a decent target if we send Maddux that direction.

 

Arizona also could be a prime destination for Maddux. The Diamondbacks need pitching and have a very deep farm system. Carlos Gonzalez would be my target and the Cubs likely have to sweeten the deal beyond Maddux to get him. A bullpen arm like Williamson, Wuertz, or Ohman might do the trick.

 

The Dodgers might also have interest as would the Mets.

 

After dealing Pierre, Maddux would be the second to go on my list.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

It's July 3.

 

fixed

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

3. Todd Walker.

 

This one is tough for me. Walker is a personal favorite and I would love to keep him beyond this season. Howver, when a season is in the crapper like this one, any player not a part of the long term plans has to be viewed as tradeable.

 

Detroit has been known to be looking for a left-handed bat. They would prefer Cliff Floyd (whom the Mets said would not be traded) or Bobby Abreu (who may or may not be on the market.) If the Tigers move on to lesser targets, they might be willing to focus on Walker. Walker would give the Tigers a left-handed bat they could use at DH and they could also use him to spell Polanco at second or Shelton at first. With the promotion of Zumaya and Veerlander this season, Detroit doesn't have the top prospect we would desire, but Walker likely doesn't command such a price as well.

 

Walker might be more valuable if the Cubs paired him with a bullpen arm. Todd Jones is about to pitch himself out of the closer's role, and while Zumaya or Rodney are capable replacements, the Tigers might have some interest in Williamson. Kyle Sleeth was once a talented prospect for the Tigers and has suffered some injuries. He might be a high risk/high reward type of target in dealing with Detroit.

 

The Mets could be another destination for Walker. A Walker for Victor Diaz swap could be in order. The Mets might also have some interest in Maddux, so packaging the two vets may be able to get the Mets to offer both Diaz and Anderson Hernadez or another package of prospects.

 

A third possible place for Walker could be Oakland. His skills would be more valued by Beane than most GM's. Oakland could use a more offensive secondbaseman and Walker fits the bill.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

The sad part is that parts of this team that should be sold will not. I see very few leaving (probably Walker and Williamson).

[Geech]

A third possible place for Walker could be Oakland. His skills would be more valued by Beane than most GM's. Oakland could use a more offensive secondbaseman and Walker fits the bill.

 

I don't think that's likely. Ellis recently came off the DL and he's probably a better hitter as well as a better fielder.

[cheapseats]

A third possible place for Walker could be Oakland. His skills would be more valued by Beane than most GM's. Oakland could use a more offensive secondbaseman and Walker fits the bill.

 

I don't think that's likely. Ellis recently came off the DL and he's probably a better hitter as well as a better fielder.

 

Yep.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

A third possible place for Walker could be Oakland. His skills would be more valued by Beane than most GM's. Oakland could use a more offensive secondbaseman and Walker fits the bill.

 

I don't think that's likely. Ellis recently came off the DL and he's probably a better hitter as well as a better fielder.

 

Ellis is a better fielder, but he's not a better hitter.

 

2006

Ellis: 231/307/329/636

Walker: 293/366/382/748

 

Career

Ellis: 271/343/402/745

Walker: 291/349/437/786

[Geech]

Ellis is a better fielder, but he's not a better hitter.

 

2006

Ellis: 231/307/329/636

Walker: 293/366/382/748

 

Career

Ellis: 271/343/402/745

Walker: 291/349/437/786

 

Ellis' 2005 is better than anything Todd has done ever. Even if he never quite reaches those levels again, Ellis will still be a better overall player than Todd.

[NewUserName]

If we were to trade Pierre to the White Sox I actually wouldnt mind getting Brian Anderson in return. I know he has struggled so far this season but can become a very solid CF in the next couple of years. Adding any kind of position prospect would be a plus for the Cubs.

 

Exactly what kind of PR problem would it be to trade Maddux? I dont think the Cubs owe him any kind of loyalty. If we can get any kind of prospect for him I would jump at the chance.

 

Walker for some reason isnt going to garner much. Since Patterson isnt going to be up next season and they probably wont give Fontenot the job and the last thing we want is Perez and Womack doing it I would just as soon keep Walker for at least one more season. Unfortunatly we have probably burnt that bridge and he will not be coming back. I wonder if Murton can be taught how to turn the DP.

[baseball7897]

If we were to trade Pierre to the White Sox I actually wouldnt mind getting Brian Anderson in return. I know he has struggled so far this season but can become a very solid CF in the next couple of years. Adding any kind of position prospect would be a plus for the Cubs.

 

Exactly what kind of PR problem would it be to trade Maddux? I dont think the Cubs owe him any kind of loyalty. If we can get any kind of prospect for him I would jump at the chance.

 

Walker for some reason isnt going to garner much. Since Patterson isnt going to be up next season and they probably wont give Fontenot the job and the last thing we want is Perez and Womack doing it I would just as soon keep Walker for at least one more season. Unfortunatly we have probably burnt that bridge and he will not be coming back. I wonder if Murton can be taught how to turn the DP.

 

Why would the cubs want a guy who cannot hit his weight? Plus they have Pie in AAA

[JC]

The only thing dumber than bringing Pierre back after a poor season like this one is if some team traded three prospects for him after 2005 despite their top positional prospect being a center fielder.

 

Hold it...

[CubinNY]

I'd trade Walker for Victor Diaz. Diaz can play second (not well). He's rotting in AAA, kind of like Hill.

[CubsBullsBears]

I would not trade Mad Dog to St. Louis unless we get an arm or leg from them b/c they are a division team. If the Sox want Pierre, go ahead have him. You can mask one bad OF arm (Podsednic), but you can't mask 2. Brian Anderson is playing like Pierre, but w/ a cannonball arm and better defense. I wouldn't want to put him near our coaching staff anyways. If we could get Anderson and Broadway for Pierre from the White Sox, I'd be willing to do it. We'd help ourselves and hurt the White Sox. Just keep them away from our coaching staff. Play Pagan in CF. This is where dead weight is useful

 

 

The only thing I must say is Howry, Eyre and Dempster should be off-limits to the White Sox and Cardinals, no matter what, and off-limits to the rest of the league, unless it's an offer too good to give up.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I would not trade Mad Dog to St. Louis unless we get an arm or leg from them b/c they are a division team.

 

Why does it matter? He helps them this year and then is a free agent. We aren't competing for the division this year, so who wins it shouldn't matter one iota. If we were trading someone who could help them long term, then that might be a valid argument. As it is, the trade would likely come back to haunt them more than us as Maddux helps them in a year that we aren't going anywhere while whoever we get could be a useful cog in the future.

 

If the Sox want Pierre, go ahead have him. You can mask one bad OF arm (Podsednic), but you can't mask 2. Brian Anderson is playing like Pierre, but w/ a cannonball arm and better defense. I wouldn't want to put him near our coaching staff anyways. If we could get Anderson and Broadway for Pierre from the White Sox, I'd be willing to do it. We'd help ourselves and hurt the White Sox. Just keep them away from our coaching staff. Play Pagan in CF. This is where dead weight is useful

 

I doubt we get Broadway and Anderson. Probably one, not both.

 

The only thing I must say is Howry, Eyre and Dempster should be off-limits to the White Sox and Cardinals, no matter what, and off-limits to the rest of the league, unless it's an offer too good to give up.

 

There's a reason I didn't include Howry, Eyre, and Dempster. They all could be a part of the team next year since they are under contract. However, if the White Sox offered a nice package for one of them, I have no problem trading with an AL team. Trading with the White Sox is no different than trading with the Rangers.

[NCCubFan]

The only thing I must say is Howry, Eyre and Dempster should be off-limits to the White Sox and Cardinals, no matter what, and off-limits to the rest of the league, unless it's an offer too good to give up.

Correction: They should not be off limits to ANYBODY if the Cubs get a great offer.

[Sammy Sofa]

I would not trade Mad Dog to St. Louis unless we get an arm or leg from them b/c they are a division team. If the Sox want Pierre, go ahead have him. You can mask one bad OF arm (Podsednic), but you can't mask 2. Brian Anderson is playing like Pierre, but w/ a cannonball arm and better defense. I wouldn't want to put him near our coaching staff anyways. If we could get Anderson and Broadway for Pierre from the White Sox, I'd be willing to do it. We'd help ourselves and hurt the White Sox. Just keep them away from our coaching staff. Play Pagan in CF. This is where dead weight is useful

 

 

The only thing I must say is Howry, Eyre and Dempster should be off-limits to the White Sox and Cardinals, no matter what, and off-limits to the rest of the league, unless it's an offer too good to give up.

 

The logic of this trading mentality is nothing short of insane given how bad this team is.

[HoopsCubs]

A third possible place for Walker could be Oakland. His skills would be more valued by Beane than most GM's. Oakland could use a more offensive secondbaseman and Walker fits the bill.

 

I don't think that's likely. Ellis recently came off the DL and he's probably a better hitter as well as a better fielder.

 

There's also the fact that Ellis is under contract for $3.5M in 2007.

[HoopsCubs]

I would not trade Mad Dog to St. Louis unless we get an arm or leg from them b/c they are a division team.

 

Why does it matter? He helps them this year and then is a free agent. We aren't competing for the division this year, so who wins it shouldn't matter one iota. If we were trading someone who could help them long term, then that might be a valid argument. As it is, the trade would likely come back to haunt them more than us as Maddux helps them in a year that we aren't going anywhere while whoever we get could be a useful cog in the future.

 

If the Sox want Pierre, go ahead have him. You can mask one bad OF arm (Podsednic), but you can't mask 2. Brian Anderson is playing like Pierre, but w/ a cannonball arm and better defense. I wouldn't want to put him near our coaching staff anyways. If we could get Anderson and Broadway for Pierre from the White Sox, I'd be willing to do it. We'd help ourselves and hurt the White Sox. Just keep them away from our coaching staff. Play Pagan in CF. This is where dead weight is useful

 

I doubt we get Broadway and Anderson. Probably one, not both.

 

The only thing I must say is Howry, Eyre and Dempster should be off-limits to the White Sox and Cardinals, no matter what, and off-limits to the rest of the league, unless it's an offer too good to give up.

 

There's a reason I didn't include Howry, Eyre, and Dempster. They all could be a part of the team next year since they are under contract. However, if the White Sox offered a nice package for one of them, I have no problem trading with an AL team. Trading with the White Sox is no different than trading with the Rangers.

 

I have probably been one of the biggest Dempster proponents I know, but his nightmarish season has even convinced me that if anyone comes along wanting him (and takes most of the $10M he's due in 2007 and 2008), then Hendry should deal him. I don't see any reason to trade Eyre -he'll be an important piece for next season. Howry has been a nice addition, and my preference would be to keep him too, but if I were Hendry I'd be open to dealing him if I got back a nice package of prospects.

[rawaction]

I would not trade Mad Dog to St. Louis unless we get an arm or leg from them b/c they are a division team.

 

Why does it matter? He helps them this year and then is a free agent. We aren't competing for the division this year, so who wins it shouldn't matter one iota. If we were trading someone who could help them long term, then that might be a valid argument. As it is, the trade would likely come back to haunt them more than us as Maddux helps them in a year that we aren't going anywhere while whoever we get could be a useful cog in the future.

 

If the Sox want Pierre, go ahead have him. You can mask one bad OF arm (Podsednic), but you can't mask 2. Brian Anderson is playing like Pierre, but w/ a cannonball arm and better defense. I wouldn't want to put him near our coaching staff anyways. If we could get Anderson and Broadway for Pierre from the White Sox, I'd be willing to do it. We'd help ourselves and hurt the White Sox. Just keep them away from our coaching staff. Play Pagan in CF. This is where dead weight is useful

 

I doubt we get Broadway and Anderson. Probably one, not both.

 

The only thing I must say is Howry, Eyre and Dempster should be off-limits to the White Sox and Cardinals, no matter what, and off-limits to the rest of the league, unless it's an offer too good to give up.

 

There's a reason I didn't include Howry, Eyre, and Dempster. They all could be a part of the team next year since they are under contract. However, if the White Sox offered a nice package for one of them, I have no problem trading with an AL team. Trading with the White Sox is no different than trading with the Rangers.

 

I have probably been one of the biggest Dempster proponents I know, but his nightmarish season has even convinced me that if anyone comes along wanting him (and takes most of the $10M he's due in 2007 and 2008), then Hendry should deal him. I don't see any reason to trade Eyre -he'll be an important piece for next season. Howry has been a nice addition, and my preference would be to keep him too, but if I were Hendry I'd be open to dealing him if I got back a nice package of prospects.

 

I would definitely look to trade 2 of the 3 back of the bullpen guys, along with Williamson. Howry and Eyre could probably close if needed. The Cubs have Wuertz and Aardsma in AAA who have shown flashes of being just as good as anybody in the pen. I'd actually trade Howry first and lean toward keeping Dempster. Eyre's left arm makes him possibly the most valuable. I still think Dempster can turn it around when he has a consistent chance to close games.

 

In a perfect world, I package Williamson with Pierre or Jones or Maddux. I trade Howry for a decent prospect. I trade Dempster and all his salary for a couple good prospects. And I have a bullpen of:

 

Eyre, Wuertz, Novoa, Ohman, Aardsma, and Miller (Lightenberg if they insist on 12 pitchers)

 

And a rotation of: Zambrano, Prior, Marshall, Hill, Guzman/Marmol

[TheDude]

I wouldn't trade any of the back 3 bullpen guys. Bullpen pitchers simply will not command upper prospects and the Cubs don't need lesser prospects right now.

[goonys evil twin]

I wouldn't trade any of the back 3 bullpen guys. Bullpen pitchers simply will not command upper prospects and the Cubs don't need lesser prospects right now.

 

Plenty of high quality baseball players have been acquired by trading away relievers. But it doesn't just have to be a 1 man deal. Throw him in with Walker, Jones or Pierre and the deal could be sweetened.

[snoodmonger]

I wouldn't trade any of the back 3 bullpen guys. Bullpen pitchers simply will not command upper prospects and the Cubs don't need lesser prospects right now.

 

Plenty of high quality baseball players have been acquired by trading away relievers. But it doesn't just have to be a 1 man deal. Throw him in with Walker, Jones or Pierre and the deal could be sweetened.

 

Jon Garland/Matt Karchner leaps to mind.

[Tracer Bullet]

I wouldn't trade any of the back 3 bullpen guys. Bullpen pitchers simply will not command upper prospects and the Cubs don't need lesser prospects right now.

 

I'd actually look to deal Dempster first (teams might give a pretty good prospect for a closer), but I'd have no problem dealing Eyre, Howry, Williamson or any other BP arm. If we could come up with 2-3 more good starters, we wouldn't need 5 good BP pitchers anyway. And if we don't come up with 2-3 good starters (either from in-house or elsewhere), we're not going to be any good next year anyway - so these guys wouldn't help us.