ARod.....

[soccer10k]

Arod might have broken his toe

 

seeing the season is over for the cubs

 

would any of you do

 

Aram+Jones for Arod and a prospect?

 

Absolutely. I'm with Vance on money in place of a prospect but if this was the only offer on the table I wouldn't think twice about making the deal.

[soccer10k]

This statement is correct, and proves CubColtPacer's point, because the next stat to look at is AVG.

 

Actually, I think the next stat to look at is SLG.

 

Beat me to it.

[davearm]

This statement is correct, and proves CubColtPacer's point, because the next stat to look at is AVG.

 

Actually, I think the next stat to look at is SLG.

 

I second that.

 

I third that

Wow I guess I wasn't clear, because a whole lot of folks missed the point.

 

SLG isn't an element of OBP.

 

If two guys (or teams) have equal OBP, then AVG will tell you which is producing more runs from that same OBP.

 

Remember that the issue at hand is walk rate versus hit rate (AVG).

 

SLG may trump them all, but that wasn't what the argument was about.

[jjgman21]

 

1. No, but Ramirez has. And you can't have this injury argument without including the pitchers.

 

2. Thomas is being paid $500,000 this season. They basically threw very little money at him, hoping he'd provide some pop here and there. They've more than gotten their money's worth for him. Even with injuries, Crosby still has played quite a bit...he's just not producing. Three people that have "hurt" Oakland this season (I use the term "hurt" loosely since they are still in first place) are Chavez (forearm tendinitis), Crosby (various injuries and overall lack of production), and Johnson, who just happened to have a terrible start to the season. Don't get me wrong, other guys are having medicore seasons for them, but those three guys were counted on to be a big part of the offense.

 

Despite all this, he keeps winning. His team was able to withstand injuries and sub-par performances. The Cubs haven't been able to.

 

you brought this argument into the area of "relying on players who were hurt in the past." none of what you said here changes the fact that your boy relied on chronically hurt players just as much as any other GM in baseball. yet of course you wind your way to defend that reliance, even though if flies in the face of your original premise.

 

 

You'd probably get a lot less flack if you'd quit the condescending remarks.

 

 

I don't give a damn about getting flack. I really don't. and if you took what I said as condescending, that's your gig, not mine. I was merely pointing out that people were arguing with nobody.

 

 

 

I think you (or anyone else) would be hard pressed to find a GM that has done everything that was possible with their own situation. Not one person has said Beane is perfect, so don't make it seem like anyone has. He's made decisions that people have questioned. However, his results have been very good.

 

the results of Kenny Williams was good in 2005 even though, in my and many other people's opinion, he did a crap job, but got good results. the point is that results in this game are not always directly related to philosophy and process.

 

and nobody has to say Beane is perfect to give him more credit than may be warranted, which is my point (so again, stop with the strawman arguments).

 

 

Other GMs have had good position in the draft, with more money to offer to higher picks, and have done squat with it. He's managed to be creative with money for draft picks. And you have to give him credit for drafting some of those guys, signing some of them to 3-4 year deals to keep them on the team at a relatively low cost through some of their peak years (and avoiding arbitration), and then getting good return on trades for some of those players when they were going to be too expensive to re-sign. For the others, he got high draft picks. Over the next couple years, we'll see how effective he was with those picks.

 

no, nobody has been in the same position in the draft as Beane the past 6 years. no-bo-dy. great, he's been creative. he still hasn't gotten a "creative" draft pick to the majors. Crosby, Swisher, Harden, Blanton, etc etc are all high picks that got big signing bonuses and were sought by all scouts.

 

signing to 3-4 year deals - I agree.

 

getting good return - - laughable, and part of my point that he hasn't done as good a job as was possible and where he deserves criticism.

 

Mulder - got good return

Hudson - got burned by Schuerholz

Zito - will probably get nothing but a draft pick. maybe not even that.

Rogers - next to nothing (Long)

Harang - next to nothing (half a season of Guillen)

Foulke and Isringhausen - draft picks

Giambi - draft pick

Tejada - draft pick

Chavez - again, picked the wrong one of the three to hold onto

Damon - draft pick

Dye - nothing

McGwire - burned by Jocketty

 

need I go on?

[CP_414]

X-Rays on ARods toe were negative. Looks like he will be back in the lineup tomorrow.

[CubColtPacer]

This statement is correct, and proves CubColtPacer's point, because the next stat to look at is AVG.

 

Actually, I think the next stat to look at is SLG.

 

I second that.

 

I third that

Wow I guess I wasn't clear, because a whole lot of folks missed the point.

 

SLG isn't an element of OBP.

 

If two guys (or teams) have equal OBP, then AVG will tell you which is producing more runs from that same OBP.

 

Remember that the issue at hand is walk rate versus hit rate (AVG).

 

SLG may trump them all, but that wasn't what the argument was about.

 

Thank you Dave ..that is the point I was originally trying to make.

[Geech]

If two guys (or teams) have equal OBP, then AVG will tell you which is producing more runs from that same OBP.

 

But that's not even true. Giambi produces more runs with his OBP than Ichiro because much of his OBP is from extra base hits. You can't just eliminate power from the equation and expect to come up with good results.

[CubColtPacer]

If two guys (or teams) have equal OBP, then AVG will tell you which is producing more runs from that same OBP.

 

But that's not even true. Giambi produces more runs with his OBP than Ichiro because much of his OBP is from extra base hits. You can't just eliminate power from the equation and expect to come up with good results.

 

When we isolate one variable though, we are assuming the other variables are the same. So slugging in this example is equal.

 

Edit: There is one more thing though. A higher average is loosly correlated to a higher slugging percentage. So a higher average usually comes with a greater slugging percentage, but now always.

[Geech]

When we isolate one variable though, we are assuming the other variables are the same. So slugging in this example is equal.

 

That still isn't really useful. If you have two players, one who hits .250/.400/.600 and one who hits .350/.400/.600 the difference between these two players in terms of runs is going to be negligible.

 

Anyway, it's possible that the slight difference would lean in favor of the player batting .350, but that's not even guaranteed. For one thing, it ignores the other advantages of patience, like wearing pitchers down faster and getting into weak middle relief. For another, the first player's superior peripheral stats provide a buffer against BABIP-related flukes. The Big Hurt probably isn't a victim of BABIP, but he's a useful example because his patience and power allow him to be very productive despite a .240 average.

[entbird79]

lot of strawman arguments going here. I don't think anyone but one poster 2 or 3 pages ago slammed Beane or gave an indication that he or his philosophies are bad.

 

if all of this is in response to what I wrote, I was merely stating that I don't think he's done everything that was possible with the situation he's been in, that he's not the boy wonder everyone made him out to be a few years ago, etc. I was not arguing that he is a bad GM.

 

I do take issue with the notion that what the A's have done in his regime is so attributable to him. many GMs could have ripped off a good run with the team, farm system, and draft picks soon to come that he was handed. who couldn't build a good run with Zito, Mulder, Hudson, Giambi, Tejada, Chavez, and the players acquired as a result of trading those guys or via the draft picks they brought.

 

finally, I don't think anyone, including Cubs fans, should be barred from criticizing anybody for any reason, even a GM who has a team that has had a good run recently. I doubt anyone would pay any attention to him whatsoever if not for those who claimed and continue to claim him the boy wonder GM, especially when a pretty solid argument could be made that he hasn't done what was possible with what he was handed and that he's on the verge of some pretty thin years.

 

if he's retained for the next five years and the A's remain competitive like they have the past 5, I'll stop arguing about his greatness. until then, I think his grade has to be an Inc.

 

edit - did he draft one or two of Zito, Hudson, Mulder?

 

Who couldn't build a good run with Wood, Prior, Z, Lee, Aram, and Barrett......

[Guancous]

Chavez - again, picked the wrong one of the three to hold onto

 

Isn't it possible he just picked the guy who wasn't on steroids? (Ducking and running)

[fromthestretch]

you brought this argument into the area of "relying on players who were hurt in the past." none of what you said here changes the fact that your boy relied on chronically hurt players just as much as any other GM in baseball. yet of course you wind your way to defend that reliance, even though if flies in the face of your original premise.

 

I don't give a damn about getting flack. I really don't. and if you took what I said as condescending, that's your gig, not mine. I was merely pointing out that people were arguing with nobody.

 

and nobody has to say Beane is perfect to give him more credit than may be warranted, which is my point (so again, stop with the strawman arguments).

 

I give up. Your ability to read what you want into what everyone posts instead of reading what they actually say, your conspiracy theories about how everyone is in a haste to argue you with you and how sabermatricians are only studying defense to prove it worthless, your begging and pleading for people to read your suggestion of rebuilding the Cubs combined with your unending defensiveness when someone critiques your posts, and your claims that goony constantly insults you while you continue to post the crap above have convinced me that you are a baseball mastermind. Kudos to you.

 

My apologies to the mods if that sounded too much like attacking the poster.

[Rusch33]

Get the Yankees anything they want but Zambrano and Lee for A-Rod.

[jjgman21]

you brought this argument into the area of "relying on players who were hurt in the past." none of what you said here changes the fact that your boy relied on chronically hurt players just as much as any other GM in baseball. yet of course you wind your way to defend that reliance, even though if flies in the face of your original premise.

 

I don't give a damn about getting flack. I really don't. and if you took what I said as condescending, that's your gig, not mine. I was merely pointing out that people were arguing with nobody.

 

and nobody has to say Beane is perfect to give him more credit than may be warranted, which is my point (so again, stop with the strawman arguments).

 

I give up. Your ability to read what you want into what everyone posts instead of reading what they actually say, your conspiracy theories about how everyone is in a haste to argue you with you and how sabermatricians are only studying defense to prove it worthless, your begging and pleading for people to read your suggestion of rebuilding the Cubs combined with your unending defensiveness when someone critiques your posts, and your claims that goony constantly insults you while you continue to post the crap above have convinced me that you are a baseball mastermind. Kudos to you.

 

My apologies to the mods if that sounded too much like attacking the poster.

 

absurd. absolute ridiculousness.

 

you don't like forceful argument that poke holes in the little baseball bubble you've made for yourself, don't take me on.

[stitchface]

in summary,

 

in order of increasing importance,

walks

singles

double

triples

home runs

 

six pages for everyone to agree that a single is better than a walk?

six pages for everyone to agree that a walk is better than an out?

 

Anyone care to argue those two points?

 

incidentally, if I had more time I was going to prove how much more valuable. Alas, I have a job. triples aren't 1.5 times what doubles are though so slugging percentage is decidely imperfect.

[jjgman21]

i

 

six pages for everyone to agree that a single is better than a walk?

 

 

Anyone care to argue those two points?

 

 

yes. I want to argue that a bases empty walk is usually better than a bases empty single.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

i

 

six pages for everyone to agree that a single is better than a walk?

 

 

Anyone care to argue those two points?

 

 

yes. I want to argue that a bases empty walk is usually better than a bases empty single.

 

On what scale? Are you talking about predictability?

[jjgman21]

i

 

six pages for everyone to agree that a single is better than a walk?

 

 

Anyone care to argue those two points?

 

 

yes. I want to argue that a bases empty walk is usually better than a bases empty single.

 

On what scale? Are you talking about predictability?

 

I don't really want to argue it. I just think a walk is better than a single when nobody is on because it always takes at least four pitches, and most singles don't.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Oh, okay, you're talking about in the scope of the individual game.

[jjgman21]

Oh, okay, you're talking about in the scope of the individual game.

 

yeah. translates over the course of a season when looking at stats though, since it is situation specific already.

 

way back before the Pierre trade, when the argument was on going whether the Cubs should acquire him or not, my suggestion was to just bring up Bacon and let him play centerfield. couldn't hit a HR to save his family, but I would rather have kept the prospects and taken his 100 BBs and .235 average for a year (I suppose that does get into the predictability factor).

[soccer10k]

i

 

six pages for everyone to agree that a single is better than a walk?

 

 

Anyone care to argue those two points?

 

 

yes. I want to argue that a bases empty walk is usually better than a bases empty single.

 

Under your stipulations, it is only better if it takes more pitches. A four pitch bases empty walk is equal to a four pitch bases empty single.

[stitchface]

ah, but on a single, there could be an error that lets you advance to second. plus what was just said about number of pitches. plus I would add that this is not reflected in season stats generally used for player evaluation.

[A New Era]

i

 

six pages for everyone to agree that a single is better than a walk?

 

 

Anyone care to argue those two points?

 

 

yes. I want to argue that a bases empty walk is usually better than a bases empty single.

 

Under your stipulations, it is only better if it takes more pitches. A four pitch bases empty walk is equal to a four pitch bases empty single.

 

When was the last time a Cub has hit a 4 pitch single? I'd take the walk myself, because it guarantee's you've atleast worked the picther 4 counts.

[Nobody youd want to know]

When was the last time a Cub has hit a 4 pitch single? I'd take the walk myself, because it guarantee's you've atleast worked the picther 4 counts.

 

This is an interesting idea. I wonder if anyone out there knows of any study, or a way to quantify the edge more pitches seen gives a team. I suspect it would be miniscule; you could start with the difference between, say, starting pitching and relief pitching WHIPs, but it would have to be reduced by how much each walk/hit adds to the possibility that an SP will be removed for an inferior RP. Then you'd have to give it an inning adjustment--knocking a reliever out in the ninth means you'll probably have to face the closer, an assumedly better pitcher.

[goonys evil twin]

If Hendry wasn't so hung up on clutch hitting, I'd be excited over the chance to trade for ARod. This could be a perfect sitaution to set this lineup as one of the best in the NL for 2007. ARod's relationship with NY is as shaky as any player's relationship with his team, and not many teams can think about getting involved in a trade.