Aramis

[sunnydoo]

Yea, a lot of people dont like me when i bring this up. But facts are facts. I read the article and, while I wish those Sabremetrics guys will have fun doing their work, the area of trends and Aramis is what is disturbing to me. To wit:

 

April  (BA/OBP/Slug/OPS)
2003  .239/.317/.370/.687
2004 .308/.333/.626/.960
2005 .241/.344/.458/.802
2006 .197/.321/.394/.716

May
2003  .343/.379/.429/.808
2004 .306/.372/.500/.872
2005 .289/.324/.546/.870
2006 .236/.259/.436/.695

 

His splits this season are lefties .190/.749, righties .219/.700. In total now, his stats are .214/.296/.413/.709. And we are complaining about OBP and still championing this guy?

 

He is last in BA among all qualified ML 3b (26th), 23rd in OBP, 18th in Slugging %, and 22nd in OPS. He ranks in the bottom 3 in all 4 categories in the NL.

 

He is also 11th in the least number of pitches per plate appearance in the NL at 3.56, so i am not buying this pitching around thing.

 

Careerwise he is .275/.327/.479/.806. That .806 career OPS is 4th amongst our divisional 3b behind Rolen (.889), Ensberg (.873), and Koskie (.827). Edwin Encarnacion has a (.802) and Joe Randa (.765) for the Pirates are the 2 remaining. Interestingly enough, Randa is on the DL and Freddie Sanchez is now playing for him, and he has a .863 OPS for this season (although his career is .725).

 

So why does Aramis get the free pass, and Jones and Pierre get picked on? Especially Jones and his lefty split? Oh, its because we KNOW Aramis will come around. What if he doesnt? What if the trend/slide continues? Do we really want to keep paying this guy $11M a year if he isnt performing? This guy is supposed to be hitting the peak in his career while nearing his 28th birthday. And it looks as if he is going downhill.

 

Only thing i see besides a slightly lower HR/AB ratio this season is a few more fly ball outs (81% as opposed to his career avg of 87%). Is the power not there anymore?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

His BABIP is still ridiculously low, at .194. He'll be right at previous levels when that levels out.

 

He's also drawing more walks and striking out less than in his previous seasons. I'd be stunned if he didn't pick it up quite a bit over the rest of the season.

Edited May 17, 2006 by Transmogrified Tiger

[soccer10k]

To add to this, when do we stop giving Aramis the benefit of the doubt? Why aren't people booing him yet? Jones gets booed all the time and tonight had something thrown at him by a fan. I went along with the "benefit of the doubt" argument as well as the "small sample size" argument and let it go. But where do you draw the line? Aramis has 130 AB's which is almost a quarter of a season. When do you start asking if something is wrong with him?

[XZero771679666304]

To add to this, when do we stop giving Aramis the benefit of the doubt? Why aren't people booing him yet? Jones gets booed all the time and tonight had something thrown at him by a fan. I went along with the "benefit of the doubt" argument as well as the "small sample size" argument and let it go. But where do you draw the line? Aramis has 130 AB's which is almost a quarter of a season. When do you start asking if something is wrong with him?

 

When/if he gets Lee back in front of him and still doesn't come out of it. As it stands, ARam isn't getting any pitches to hit, nor should he. I just think he's pressing.

[Sammy Sofa]

Personally, if he's still tooling around like this come June, I'm seriously worried.

[goonys evil twin]

To add to this, when do we stop giving Aramis the benefit of the doubt? Why aren't people booing him yet?

 

Pretty simple actually. Aramis has actually done some good in a Cubs uniform, over a long stretch of time. Jones and Pierre have not. Lots of others Cubs have not.

 

I'm annoyed as hell at Aramis's start. But it wasn't stupid for Hendry to trade for him (even though I wrongfully criticized it at the time). It wasn't stupid for Hendry to sign him.

 

The Pierre and Jones moves were bad from the start, and then they make it worse by playing like crap right from the get-go. You have to build up some equity with the fans if you want to get away with crappy play over an extended period. A minor leaguer can build up that equity by having a quality ride through the minor league season, that is, assuming the fans in question actually pay attention and understand what the minor league progression entails. A veteran can build up that equity by playing well for the team and living up to his contract. Aramis did that for most of his 2.5 years here. He isn't now. He's taking a serious hit on that equity and now has a long way to go to build it back up. But he's nowhere near Jones and Pierre territory. They're two transient squatters who haven't paid a dime in rent yet, let alone built up any equity in the house of Cubs.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

To add to this, when do we stop giving Aramis the benefit of the doubt? Why aren't people booing him yet?

 

Pretty simple actually. Aramis has actually done some good in a Cubs uniform, over a long stretch of time. Jones and Pierre have not. Lots of others Cubs have not.

 

I'm annoyed as hell at Aramis's start. But it wasn't stupid for Hendry to trade for him (even though I wrongfully criticized it at the time). It wasn't stupid for Hendry to sign him.

 

The Pierre and Jones moves were bad from the start, and then they make it worse by playing like crap right from the get-go. You have to build up some equity with the fans if you want to get away with crappy play over an extended period. A minor leaguer can build up that equity by having a quality ride through the minor league season, that is, assuming the fans in question actually pay attention and understand what the minor league progression entails. A veteran can build up that equity by playing well for the team and living up to his contract. Aramis did that for most of his 2.5 years here. He isn't now. He's taking a serious hit on that equity and now has a long way to go to build it back up. But he's nowhere near Jones and Pierre territory. They're two transient squatters who haven't paid a dime in rent yet, let alone built up any equity in the house of Cubs.

 

Excellently stated.

[badger1679666666]

Yea, a lot of people dont like me when i bring this up. But facts are facts. I read the article and, while I wish those Sabremetrics guys will have fun doing their work, the area of trends and Aramis is what is disturbing to me. To wit:

 

 

Alot of people dont like how you twist facts and make arbitrary designations like 145 games in a year instead of 142 or 140. Also they don't like how you include years when he wasn't a starter, when trying to prove your points. It's a farce.

[frostwyrm]

His BABIP is still ridiculously low, at .194. He'll be right at previous levels when that levels out.

I really don't think his poor BABIP is bad luck. He's made a lot of weak contact this year and he's certainly not fast enough to leg out an infield hit. I still think he'll get it together though and start hitting the ball harder on a regular basis.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

His BABIP is still ridiculously low, at .194. He'll be right at previous levels when that levels out.

I really don't think his poor BABIP is bad luck. He's made a lot of weak contact this year and he's certainly not fast enough to leg out an infield hit. I still think he'll get it together though and start hitting the ball harder on a regular basis.

 

He's still hitting about 15% line drives, which means at the least his BABIP should be around .250. If that were the case he'd be hitting about .270/.350/.470/.820, and that's assuming all the extra hits are singles.

[wade]

Here's why I'm patient with Aramis and not with the other two-

 

Aramis' last two years-

 

.318/.373/.578/.951

 

.302/.358/.568/.926

 

That's average/OBP/SLG/OPS

 

Here is Jones, same time period, averages

 

.254/.315/.427/.742

 

.264/.301/.472/.773

 

And Pierre

 

.326/.374/.407/.781

 

.276/.326/.354/.680

 

Simply put, I have more faith that Ramirez will return to numbers much like he has put up the past couple of years, incidentally when he was reaching his prime, where he is now.

 

Conversely, Jones is really not far from where he has been the past couple of years, when he was leaving his prime. I don't expect him to get significantly better than he is now.

 

Pierre I still hold out hope for, but he is killing the team right now.

 

Anyway, these numbers are why I think most people assume Ramirez will break out of this slump.

[soccer10k]

To add to this, when do we stop giving Aramis the benefit of the doubt? Why aren't people booing him yet?

 

Pretty simple actually. Aramis has actually done some good in a Cubs uniform, over a long stretch of time. Jones and Pierre have not. Lots of others Cubs have not.

 

I'm annoyed as hell at Aramis's start. But it wasn't stupid for Hendry to trade for him (even though I wrongfully criticized it at the time). It wasn't stupid for Hendry to sign him.

 

The Pierre and Jones moves were bad from the start, and then they make it worse by playing like crap right from the get-go. You have to build up some equity with the fans if you want to get away with crappy play over an extended period. A minor leaguer can build up that equity by having a quality ride through the minor league season, that is, assuming the fans in question actually pay attention and understand what the minor league progression entails. A veteran can build up that equity by playing well for the team and living up to his contract. Aramis did that for most of his 2.5 years here. He isn't now. He's taking a serious hit on that equity and now has a long way to go to build it back up. But he's nowhere near Jones and Pierre territory. They're two transient squatters who haven't paid a dime in rent yet, let alone built up any equity in the house of Cubs.

 

I didn't ask you to compare Aramis from the past couple years to anybody else. I simply asked when do you stop giving him the benefit of the doubt? It's a month and a half into the year and he's hitting .215. This isn't acceptable for a player making $11 mil a year. If he's as great as people make him out to be, he shouldn't be hitting so poorly with DLee out. I know you are going to be affected by the absence of an MVP candidate but he shouldn't be affected this much. Aramis is performing FAR under what he should be doing. People routinely boo Jones. As was posted in another thread, Dempster was booed when he blew the save. Why doesn't Aramis get booed when he gets out late in the game and strands a couple runners on base?

[USSoccer]

 

I didn't ask you to compare Aramis from the past couple years to anybody else. I simply asked when do you stop giving him the benefit of the doubt? It's a month and a half into the year and he's hitting .215. This isn't acceptable for a player making $11 mil a year. If he's as great as people make him out to be, he shouldn't be hitting so poorly with DLee out. I know you are going to be affected by the absence of an MVP candidate but he shouldn't be affected this much. Aramis is performing FAR under what he should be doing. People routinely boo Jones. As was posted in another thread, Dempster was booed when he blew the save. Why doesn't Aramis get booed when he gets out late in the game and strands a couple runners on base?

 

You keep asking this question like no one has answered you. He's got 3 years of really good performance as a Cub under his belt. People know this. People know he started slow last season. People are confident he'll be where he needs to be when all is said and done. No one is absolving him from his share of the struggles, but most people have more faith in a proven player than a player or players that have been proven mediocre. Regarding Dempster, they were booing team performance and the fact that the team was going to lose again, not necessarily Dempster.

 

This is not a difficult concept. Over time, good performance will earn you the benefit of the doubt for a while. If he's still struggling into June, I'm sure he'll get booed.

[soccer10k]

 

I didn't ask you to compare Aramis from the past couple years to anybody else. I simply asked when do you stop giving him the benefit of the doubt? It's a month and a half into the year and he's hitting .215. This isn't acceptable for a player making $11 mil a year. If he's as great as people make him out to be, he shouldn't be hitting so poorly with DLee out. I know you are going to be affected by the absence of an MVP candidate but he shouldn't be affected this much. Aramis is performing FAR under what he should be doing. People routinely boo Jones. As was posted in another thread, Dempster was booed when he blew the save. Why doesn't Aramis get booed when he gets out late in the game and strands a couple runners on base?

 

You keep asking this question like no one has answered you. He's got 3 years of really good performance as a Cub under his belt. People know this. People know he started slow last season. People are confident he'll be where he needs to be when all is said and done.

 

This is not a difficult concept. Over time, good performance will earn you the benefit of the doubt for a while. If he's still struggling into June, I'm sure he'll get booed.

 

Not after a single game last year was Aramis's season-to-date BA below .200. He was under .200 this year for half of April. Here are his stats as of May 16 for the last 2 years:

 

2005: .250/.324/.492/.816

2006: .215/.295/.415/.710

 

That's a big difference.

[badger1679666666]

 

I didn't ask you to compare Aramis from the past couple years to anybody else. I simply asked when do you stop giving him the benefit of the doubt? It's a month and a half into the year and he's hitting .215. This isn't acceptable for a player making $11 mil a year. If he's as great as people make him out to be, he shouldn't be hitting so poorly with DLee out. I know you are going to be affected by the absence of an MVP candidate but he shouldn't be affected this much. Aramis is performing FAR under what he should be doing. People routinely boo Jones. As was posted in another thread, Dempster was booed when he blew the save. Why doesn't Aramis get booed when he gets out late in the game and strands a couple runners on base?

 

You keep asking this question like no one has answered you. He's got 3 years of really good performance as a Cub under his belt. People know this. People know he started slow last season. People are confident he'll be where he needs to be when all is said and done. No one is absolving him from his share of the struggles, but most people have more faith in a proven player than a player or players that have been proven mediocre. Regarding Dempster, they were booing team performance and the fact that the team was going to lose again, not necessarily Dempster.

 

This is not a difficult concept. Over time, good performance will earn you the benefit of the doubt for a while. If he's still struggling into June, I'm sure he'll get booed.

 

Additionally, he's getting NOTHING to hit with the people around him.

 

Even if he struggles until June, he shouldn't get booed, but he probably will.

[goonys evil twin]

I didn't ask you to compare Aramis from the past couple years to anybody else.

 

Are you just going to ignore the answer? Aramis's past is vital to the discussion. Fans aren't coming into this season blind to the past, unless they purposefully try to pretend Jacque Jones didn't suck for two years or that Juan Pierre has been terrific. Aramis gets more slack because he's built up equity with Cubs fans. It's running thin about now, but I'm not going to tell you when people are going to turn on him. Some already have.

[soccer10k]

Aramis has been absolutely pathetic, awful, downright horrible this year. Hey, somebody has to say it.

[goonys evil twin]

Aramis has been absolutely pathetic, awful, downright horrible this year. Hey, somebody has to say it.

 

Yes, he has.

[soccer10k]

If I went to a Cubs game right now I would boo Aramis and deservedly so. I would also boo Pierre, but I would not boo Jacque.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If I went to a Cubs game right now I would boo Aramis and deservedly so. I would also boo Pierre, but I would not boo Jacque.

 

Well as long as your consistent....

[badger1679666666]

If I went to a Cubs game right now I would boo Aramis and deservedly so. I would also boo Pierre, but I would not boo Jacque.

 

Yep. His 15 hop throws, and inability to follow the ball into the outfield should be lauded.

[soccer10k]

If I went to a Cubs game right now I would boo Aramis and deservedly so. I would also boo Pierre, but I would not boo Jacque.

 

Yep. His 15 hop throws, and inability to follow the ball into the outfield should be lauded.

 

I never said I have been completely happy with his play, but Jacque surely isn't boo worthy.

[USSoccer]

If I went to a Cubs game right now I would boo Aramis and deservedly so. I would also boo Pierre, but I would not boo Jacque.

 

Good for you. Jones is your guy. There's nothing wrong with it.

[goonys evil twin]

If I went to a Cubs game right now I would boo Aramis and deservedly so. I would also boo Pierre, but I would not boo Jacque.

 

That's just silly. Going to a Cubs game and booing Cubs players is bad enough. But you are going in have already dediced in advance who you are going to boo, that's worse. And then you pick out two guys who are playing poorly and leave off another.

 

If anybody deserves to be booed, it's the players who makes the same stupid mental mistakes over and over. I have a tough time booing performance. But it's not that hard to boo guys who routinely get picked off base, miss cut-off men and roll the ball in from the outfield.

 

Baseball is a game of failure. You win on the margins. Slumps happen, and have to be tolerated, as annoying as they are. Mental mistakes should not be tolerated, and repeated mental mistakes absolutely cannot be tolerated.

[badger1679666666]

If I went to a Cubs game right now I would boo Aramis and deservedly so. I would also boo Pierre, but I would not boo Jacque.

 

Yep. His 15 hop throws, and inability to follow the ball into the outfield should be lauded.

 

I never said I have been completely happy with his play, but Jacque surely isn't boo worthy.

 

Being picked off 2nd base 3 freaking times in two weeks by being a mental midget is much more boo-worthy than struggling at the plate.