Trade negotiations

[Backtobanks]

I agree with CFICT. It's unlikely that any of those prospects will reach the heights Hernandez will. It's the old trade the unknown for the proven. Except the proven is 20 years old an pre-arbitration.

 

And not really "proven." There are lots of 20-year-old pitchers who don't reach their potential, due to injuries or other things (like Doc). Felix has a very high ceiling, but being a pitching prospect means he also comes with a great deal of risk. It's not like you're dealing all of those guys and getting a guarantee that he'll have a Clemens-type career rather than an injury-riddled one.

 

True, I'm very leery of pitching prospects injuries wise however I think Felix's talent is too great not to do the deal.

 

Think about where the organization would be after doing that trade. We'd have basically nothing in the system worth trading, and we'd be up one stud pitcher. It'd take years to get the system back, and the Cubs aren't one Felix Hernandez away from winning the pennant. If you were that committed to trading all those guys, you could probably get better value receiving multiple players in return.

 

I guess it all comes down to how much you value Wuertz, Hill, Guzman, Pawelek, Pie, Harvey. Personally I don't think it's a very exciting bunch. I also disagree about getting better value with multiple players in return. Again, Felix is one of the greatest pitching prospects in the history of baseball. That said, I certainly understand your position.

 

See Brian Taylor, JR Richard, etc.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

But then again, out of Pie, Pawalek, Guzman, and Harvey, there's a very good chance that one of those guys is a future all-star, and out of those and the rest of the guys, there's a possibility that there's another 2 solid every-dayers.

 

 

This is highly unlikely.

 

Look, my point isn't to dis Cub prospects however Felix Hernandez is more heralded prospect than Prior ever was - he's that amazing.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

I agree with CFICT. It's unlikely that any of those prospects will reach the heights Hernandez will. It's the old trade the unknown for the proven. Except the proven is 20 years old an pre-arbitration.

 

And not really "proven." There are lots of 20-year-old pitchers who don't reach their potential, due to injuries or other things (like Doc). Felix has a very high ceiling, but being a pitching prospect means he also comes with a great deal of risk. It's not like you're dealing all of those guys and getting a guarantee that he'll have a Clemens-type career rather than an injury-riddled one.

 

True, I'm very leery of pitching prospects injuries wise however I think Felix's talent is too great not to do the deal.

 

Think about where the organization would be after doing that trade. We'd have basically nothing in the system worth trading, and we'd be up one stud pitcher. It'd take years to get the system back, and the Cubs aren't one Felix Hernandez away from winning the pennant. If you were that committed to trading all those guys, you could probably get better value receiving multiple players in return.

 

I guess it all comes down to how much you value Wuertz, Hill, Guzman, Pawelek, Pie, Harvey. Personally I don't think it's a very exciting bunch. I also disagree about getting better value with multiple players in return. Again, Felix is one of the greatest pitching prospects in the history of baseball. That said, I certainly understand your position.

 

See Brian Taylor, JR Richard, etc.

 

True, I understand the risks however Seattle won't allow him to pitch 240 innings or throw 120 pitches in a game. They are learning from the sins of the past.

[Rob]

King Felix scares me.

 

Don't get me wrong, he's perhaps the greatest prospect I've ever seen... and that's even without him throwing that slider yet.

 

But his delivery is just so violent. He is always going to have this black cloud of injury hanging over his head, even if the Mariners do their very best taking care of him (and with their suspect record with pitchers to boot)

 

I couldn't pull the trigger on the proposed trade... but I'd sure want to.

[Tracer Bullet]

I agree with CFICT. It's unlikely that any of those prospects will reach the heights Hernandez will. It's the old trade the unknown for the proven. Except the proven is 20 years old an pre-arbitration.

 

And not really "proven." There are lots of 20-year-old pitchers who don't reach their potential, due to injuries or other things (like Doc). Felix has a very high ceiling, but being a pitching prospect means he also comes with a great deal of risk. It's not like you're dealing all of those guys and getting a guarantee that he'll have a Clemens-type career rather than an injury-riddled one.

 

But think of how much it took to bring Doc down.

 

Right, I'm not saying Felix will do enough coke to kill a horse. I'm just saying that, in addition to the huge injury risk associated with any young pitcher, there are just risks associated with being young, relatively rich, and seemingly invincible.

[Andy]

I agree with CFICT. It's unlikely that any of those prospects will reach the heights Hernandez will. It's the old trade the unknown for the proven. Except the proven is 20 years old an pre-arbitration.

 

And not really "proven." There are lots of 20-year-old pitchers who don't reach their potential, due to injuries or other things (like Doc). Felix has a very high ceiling, but being a pitching prospect means he also comes with a great deal of risk. It's not like you're dealing all of those guys and getting a guarantee that he'll have a Clemens-type career rather than an injury-riddled one.

 

True, I'm very leery of pitching prospects injuries wise however I think Felix's talent is too great not to do the deal.

 

Think about where the organization would be after doing that trade. We'd have basically nothing in the system worth trading, and we'd be up one stud pitcher. It'd take years to get the system back, and the Cubs aren't one Felix Hernandez away from winning the pennant. If you were that committed to trading all those guys, you could probably get better value receiving multiple players in return.

 

I guess it all comes down to how much you value Wuertz, Hill, Guzman, Pawelek, Pie, Harvey. Personally I don't think it's a very exciting bunch. I also disagree about getting better value with multiple players in return. Again, Felix is one of the greatest pitching prospects in the history of baseball. That said, I certainly understand your position.

 

See Brian Taylor, JR Richard, etc.

 

True, I understand the risks however Seattle won't allow him to pitch 240 innings or throw 120 pitches in a game. They are learning from the sins of the past.

Dusty Baker? He doesn't learn.

[fromthestretch]

I agree with CFICT. It's unlikely that any of those prospects will reach the heights Hernandez will. It's the old trade the unknown for the proven. Except the proven is 20 years old an pre-arbitration.

 

And not really "proven." There are lots of 20-year-old pitchers who don't reach their potential, due to injuries or other things (like Doc). Felix has a very high ceiling, but being a pitching prospect means he also comes with a great deal of risk. It's not like you're dealing all of those guys and getting a guarantee that he'll have a Clemens-type career rather than an injury-riddled one.

 

But think of how much it took to bring Doc down.

 

People can point to the drug use, but I'd say that throwing an average of 234 innings per year in his first five seasons prior to the age of 24 probably didn't help matters.

[Guancous]

Felix Hernandez is obviously supremely talented. The problem is that you can't mortgage that much of your future unless it is for a sure thing. The problem is those players are expensive. I would make that trade for Johan Santana. Any pitcher under 25 is still in the injury nexus. A pitcher can recover from surgery and still lose a mile or two off their fastball. I prefer to package minor leaguers with veterans to upgrade the position. You'll get more with Jacque Jones and Rich Hill than you will with Hill, Aardsma, and Pawalek.

[Jehrico]

But then again, out of Pie, Pawalek, Guzman, and Harvey, there's a very good chance that one of those guys is a future all-star, and out of those and the rest of the guys, there's a possibility that there's another 2 solid every-dayers.

 

 

This is highly unlikely.

 

Look, my point isn't to dis Cub prospects however Felix Hernandez is more heralded prospect than Prior ever was - he's that amazing.

 

How do you figure thatit's unlikely that the cream of our farm system may produce one all-star caliber player and maybe 2 everyday players? That includes what we could get for trades. i.e. Bobby Hill and Hee Seop Choi netted us two all-stars...

[RyCubsFan]

There's no one player worth crippling your minor league system that much for.

 

I agree. One superstar player is not a substitute for a quality team of players. Felix is good, but we would be mortgaging the teams future.

 

Felix is one the greatest pitching prospects in the history of baseball.

 

So was Mark Prior. Is he worth mortgaging the team's future for?

 

Pie has a very good shot of being an allstar. Pawelek, because of his age the odds are against him, but he has an extremely high ceiling. Wuertz is a capable reliever. Guzman could be a #2 starter in the rotation for years. Add Harvey and Hill....this trade could cripple the Cubs.

[RyCubsFan]

But then again, out of Pie, Pawalek, Guzman, and Harvey, there's a very good chance that one of those guys is a future all-star, and out of those and the rest of the guys, there's a possibility that there's another 2 solid every-dayers.

 

 

This is highly unlikely.

 

Look, my point isn't to dis Cub prospects however Felix Hernandez is more heralded prospect than Prior ever was - he's that amazing.

 

While Felilx is indeed a great prospect, I think you are overstating his case a tad. I haven't seen reports saying he's that much better than what Prior was.

[Guest]

Pitchers get hurt too often to trade the entire top end of the farm system for 1 guy.

[FergieJ31]

This fluff piece is certainly on par with what we heard about Prior in 2002:

 

http://www.minorleaguenews.com/baseball/features/articles2005/08/15/01.html

 

This quote is interesting:

 

Still not impressed? Veteran pitchers tell us that Hernandez has a great high nineties fastball that has only become better as he's moved through the system. His high heat runs in the mid to upper nineties and should actually increase over the next year or two into the 97 mph range as his arm matures. He has a clocked 90mph slider and a high-eighties curve ball. The Mariners have to actually have him back off of the slider's speed to preserve his arm! He keeps the ball down with ease, but he can easily blow by hitters right in their sweet spots, a feat in the majors that was last witnessed with regularity back in the early years of Fernando Valenzuela.

 

If this is true, I'm impressed with the Mariners coaching philosophy. I wish the Cubs had the foresight to ask their young flamethrowers to turn it down a notch and learn to pitch effectively first (and I hope I'm not dangerously sounding like Steve Stone here).

[CoolHandLuke]

Maybe instead of talking about trading the farm for one phenom we should start to get more active again in the international scouting department. Maybe we could find our own felix hernandez?

[Productive Outs]

I'd trade Wuertz, Hill, Guzman, Pawelek, Pie, Harvey for Felix Hernandez in a heartbeat.

 

i think you just want to cripple the cubs' farm system :P

 

i would not make this trade. if he was a positional player, and was this heralded at 20, i would think about it more, but would still be very cautious.

[BigbadB]

Maybe instead of talking about trading the farm for one phenom we should start to get more active again in the international scouting department. Maybe we could find our own felix hernandez?

 

Here is your winner, folks. :cheers:

[Clogged Basepaths]

Maybe instead of talking about trading the farm for one phenom we should start to get more active again in the international scouting department. Maybe we could find our own felix hernandez?

 

What about Carlos Zambrano? Or Pie? I can't remember which round we drafted those guys in, maybe we did acquire them through international scouting.

[YearofDaCubs]

Maybe instead of talking about trading the farm for one phenom we should start to get more active again in the international scouting department. Maybe we could find our own felix hernandez?

I totally agree. I'm disappointed to hear we are no longer scouting that much internationally.

[cheapseats]

But then again, out of Pie, Pawalek, Guzman, and Harvey, there's a very good chance that one of those guys is a future all-star, and out of those and the rest of the guys, there's a possibility that there's another 2 solid every-dayers.

 

 

This is highly unlikely.

 

Look, my point isn't to dis Cub prospects however Felix Hernandez is more heralded prospect than Prior ever was - he's that amazing.

 

While Felilx is indeed a great prospect, I think you are overstating his case a tad. I haven't seen reports saying he's that much better than what Prior was.

 

A recent BP article pegged Felix as the best pitching prospect in the last 20 years.

 

Yeah, he's more hyped than Prior.

[RyCubsFan]

But then again, out of Pie, Pawalek, Guzman, and Harvey, there's a very good chance that one of those guys is a future all-star, and out of those and the rest of the guys, there's a possibility that there's another 2 solid every-dayers.

 

 

This is highly unlikely.

 

Look, my point isn't to dis Cub prospects however Felix Hernandez is more heralded prospect than Prior ever was - he's that amazing.

 

While Felilx is indeed a great prospect, I think you are overstating his case a tad. I haven't seen reports saying he's that much better than what Prior was.

 

A recent BP article pegged Felix as the best pitching prospect in the last 20 years.

 

Yeah, he's more hyped than Prior.

 

BP also hyped Brendan Harris as the next Albert Pujols. I'm just saying...

 

No doubt Felix will be great if he remains healthy. But with prospects, the next best thing always seems to be considered the best prospect ever. Prior at the time was said by many to be the BEST pitching prospect to ever be drafted...and the best college pitcher ever. I don't see how the superlatives could get any higher for Felix.

[CoolHandLuke]

But then again, out of Pie, Pawalek, Guzman, and Harvey, there's a very good chance that one of those guys is a future all-star, and out of those and the rest of the guys, there's a possibility that there's another 2 solid every-dayers.

 

 

This is highly unlikely.

 

Look, my point isn't to dis Cub prospects however Felix Hernandez is more heralded prospect than Prior ever was - he's that amazing.

 

While Felilx is indeed a great prospect, I think you are overstating his case a tad. I haven't seen reports saying he's that much better than what Prior was.

 

A recent BP article pegged Felix as the best pitching prospect in the last 20 years.

 

Yeah, he's more hyped than Prior.

 

BP also hyped Brendan Harris as the next Albert Pujols. I'm just saying...

 

No doubt Felix will be great if he remains healthy. But with prospects, the next best thing always seems to be considered the best prospect ever. Prior at the time was said by many to be the BEST pitching prospect to ever be drafted...and the best college pitcher ever. I don't see how the superlatives could get any higher for Felix.

 

Hernandez wasn't drafted.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

But then again, out of Pie, Pawalek, Guzman, and Harvey, there's a very good chance that one of those guys is a future all-star, and out of those and the rest of the guys, there's a possibility that there's another 2 solid every-dayers.

 

 

This is highly unlikely.

 

Look, my point isn't to dis Cub prospects however Felix Hernandez is more heralded prospect than Prior ever was - he's that amazing.

 

How do you figure thatit's unlikely that the cream of our farm system may produce one all-star caliber player and maybe 2 everyday players? That includes what we could get for trades. i.e. Bobby Hill and Hee Seop Choi netted us two all-stars...

 

I really wouldn't count on a trade like that happening again. The reason the Cubs were able to make those deal is they were willing to take on payroll when no one else was. Again, I would be shocked if those produce like you've stated.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

But then again, out of Pie, Pawalek, Guzman, and Harvey, there's a very good chance that one of those guys is a future all-star, and out of those and the rest of the guys, there's a possibility that there's another 2 solid every-dayers.

 

 

This is highly unlikely.

 

Look, my point isn't to dis Cub prospects however Felix Hernandez is more heralded prospect than Prior ever was - he's that amazing.

 

While Felilx is indeed a great prospect, I think you are overstating his case a tad. I haven't seen reports saying he's that much better than what Prior was.

 

A recent BP article pegged Felix as the best pitching prospect in the last 20 years.

 

Yeah, he's more hyped than Prior.

 

BP also hyped Brendan Harris as the next Albert Pujols. I'm just saying...

 

No doubt Felix will be great if he remains healthy. But with prospects, the next best thing always seems to be considered the best prospect ever. Prior at the time was said by many to be the BEST pitching prospect to ever be drafted...and the best college pitcher ever. I don't see how the superlatives could get any higher for Felix.

 

Many believe Felix is a better prospect than Prior was because of rookie age and peripherals.

[Fro]

Yeah Prior had a ton of hype, plus the "he has perfect mechanics, they analyzed it with computers and his are the best of all time so he'll never ever get hurt, blah blah blah" factor which puts him above Hernandez, imho.

[stitchface]

BP also hyped Brendan Harris as the next Albert Pujols. I'm just saying...

 

no, they didn't. they said they had comparable A-ball numbers.