PECOTA Bottom 5 NL Center Fielders

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Player Team Projected VORP

Eric Reed FLO -3.6

Willy Taveras HOU 4.6

Cory Sullivan COL 5.5

Kenny Lofton LAN 11.7

Juan Pierre CHN 13.4

 

 

 

awesome. sign that man to an extension, pronto.

[texascub]

I don't know a whole lot about VORP or any stats like that, but it just seems to me like it is favoring power-hittering CFs over lead-off CFs.

[anemic offense]

I don't think PECOTA does the Juan Pierre's of the world justice. So much of his skill set and impact can't be statistically measured, such as his clubhouse presense, scoring ability (with Lee and Arams doubles he will score a TON of runs from 1st), situational hitting (being able to lay down a bunt when the team REALLY needs a run), things like that.

 

Don't get the idea I'm lobbying Juan Pierre to be on the All-World team. I'm not. Howver this is why I'm not so high on these projection when it comes to players with a unique skillset. They just don't do them justice (Eckstein consistently comes to mind).

[anemic offense]

I don't know a whole lot about VORP or any stats like that, but it just seems to me like it is favoring power-hittering CFs over lead-off CFs.

 

Exactly. The heavy RBI, HR, OPS guys consistently get all the love. That doesn't necessarily mean they are any more important to their team than Juan Pierre is to this team. We have enough RBI men, we just need guys who can reak some havoc on the bases and give our mashers the opportunites. Hopefully Juan will do that for us.

[rawaction]

I don't think PECOTA does the Juan Pierre's of the world justice. So much of his skill set and impact can't be statistically measured, such as his clubhouse presense, scoring ability (with Lee and Arams doubles he will score a TON of runs from 1st), situational hitting (being able to lay down a bunt when the team REALLY needs a run), things like that.

 

Don't get the idea I'm lobbying Juan Pierre to be on the All-World team. I'm not. Howver this is why I'm not so high on these projection when it comes to players with a unique skillset. They just don't do them justice (Eckstein consistently comes to mind).

 

I'm sorry, I have to object to a lot of this post.

 

1. If the team REALLY needs a run, I don't want someone bunting.

 

2. I'd rather have guys who's performance can be statistically measured over clubhouse presences.

 

3. Patterson could score from first, and that didn't work out. Heck, with the way Lee and Ramirez hit (doubles tend to be more gappers than down the RF or LF lines) Walker can score from 1st.

[CoolHandLuke]

Pecota favors guys who hit for power because power is more valuable to an offense.

[ManEatingTarp]

Pecota favors guys who hit for power because power is more valuable to an offense.

 

And that is not a failure to communicate!

[Rob]

I'm sorry, I have to object to a lot of this post.

 

1. If the team REALLY needs a run, I don't want someone bunting.

 

 

Actually, it's been proven that bunting can increase the odds of scoring in some situations.

 

It simply increases the odds of scoring one run for sacrificing the odds of scoring more than that.

 

So if we REALLY need a run, sometimes it is actually beneficial to lay down the bunt... but pretty much only if it advances a runner to third.

[Sarcastic]

What is the PECOTA projection for Pierre? Apparently they think that 2005 is a trend, because in 2004 he had a VORP of over 30, and in 2003 he had a VORP of 29.0. I'd say it is more likely that Pierre will rebound towards his previous numbers than have a year similar to his last.

[Rob]

What is the PECOTA projection for Pierre? Apparently they think that 2005 is a trend, because in 2004 he had a VORP of over 30, and in 2003 he had a VORP of 29.0. I'd say it is more likely that Pierre will rebound towards his previous numbers than have a year similar to his last.

 

His weighted mean forecast is .297/.348/.361 with 49 SB and 16 CS and costing us 6 runs in the outfield.

[Sarcastic]

What is the PECOTA projection for Pierre? Apparently they think that 2005 is a trend, because in 2004 he had a VORP of over 30, and in 2003 he had a VORP of 29.0. I'd say it is more likely that Pierre will rebound towards his previous numbers than have a year similar to his last.

 

His weighted mean forecast is .297/.348/.361 with 49 SB and 16 CS and costing us 6 runs in the outfield.

 

Could you explain what you mean by weighted mean average, and what his stats for that category would be for the last few years.

[BWcubs21]

sometimes you can look to much into stats and miss the fact that this guy can do a lot of things that isnt measured via stats, such as taking pitches, being able to get to get from 1st to 3rd when most cant, etc. Stats are a great tool in measuring a player, but sometimes you have to look beyond them...3 good leadoff guys are in the bottom 5, that should tell you something.

[cheapseats]

sometimes you can look to much into stats and miss the fact that this guy can do a lot of things that isnt measured via stats, such as taking pitches, being able to get to get from 1st to 3rd when most cant, etc. Stats are a great tool in measuring a player, but sometimes you have to look beyond them...3 good leadoff guys are in the bottom 5, that should tell you something.

 

Going from 1st to 3rd can be measured, and there's a lot in the new Bill James handbook, I believe, about baserunning.

 

Taking pitches can be measured as well.

 

Pierre's an upgrade over Corey Patterson of 2005, but just about every CF in baseball would be an upgrade over CPatt of 05.

[harrdb00]

I'm not really sure why everyone on this board is so down on Pierre. I remember watching him in '03 and every other time the Cubs played the Marlins, thinking how I wish the Cubs had a guy like him. Now we have him and I couldn't be happier.

 

Let's not bury him because he had a below average spring training. He is not a rookie, he does not need to prove himself in ST. He is a veteran who has proven to be a very good lead-off man.

 

I can't wait to watch him play!

[ltb]

I'm not really sure why everyone on this board is so down on Pierre. I remember watching him in '03 and every other time the Cubs played the Marlins, thinking how I wish the Cubs had a guy like him.

 

according to stats, this isn't juan pierre circa 2003.

[Monco]

I'm not really sure why everyone on this board is so down on Pierre. I remember watching him in '03 and every other time the Cubs played the Marlins, thinking how I wish the Cubs had a guy like him. Now we have him and I couldn't be happier.

 

Let's not bury him because he had a below average spring training. He is not a rookie, he does not need to prove himself in ST. He is a veteran who has proven to be a very good lead-off man.

 

I can't wait to watch him play!

I feel a major reason why people are down on Pierre is because of what was given up for him for 1 year.

[Productive Outs]

PECOTA's Weighted Mean VORP for Juan Pierre in 2006: 13.0

PECOTA's Weighted Mean VORP for Corey Patterson in 2006: 14.1

[Warpticon]

3 good leadoff hitters? Where?

[cheapseats]

And PECOTA expects Lofton to get about half the atbats that Pierre does and still produce about as much offense.

 

Now that Pierre's a Cub, I hope he does well, and I'll root for him, but we should have done a lot better.