Rumor - Murton for Soriano?

[rjchapma]

I apologize Im just getting frustrated about this. My point is you cant say someone who has only played less than half a season in the pros is better than someone who is one of the best lead off hitter in baseball. I know Pierre had a bad year last year, but that doesnt mean a prospect is better than him. On the other hand I think Murton will pan out and be much better than Patterson I just dont think you can say something like that when he hasn't played enough to prove that.

 

Your point is taken, and I think you're dead wrong. I don't see anything wrong with saying Murton could be the Cubs best OF this season. We don't know how good he'll be, maybe he'll be the worst, but he could be the best. We don't know how good Pierre will be, but his track record gives us a pretty good idea. If he repeats 2005, it won't take much for Murton to be better. Production is production, no matter where it comes from. It doesn't matter if Pierre is one of the best leadoff men, if Murton outproduces him from the 2 spot, 7th spot or 8th spot, he'll be the better OF. Right now we don't know who is the best OF on the Cubs. I'd wait until after the season is well under way to claim it's impossible to rank one ahead of the other. They could all be similarly mediocre, or worse. Hopefully they all outproduce expectations.

 

I agree with you that production is production and thats right. The problem I have is saying a Minor League player will out produce a Major leauge ready player who has had a pretty good career. Also with the fielding part i know hes not great, but he also was playin in Florida which isn't the easiest stadium to play CF. I understand Goonie that you disagree with me we'll see what happens you could be right if Pierre repeats last year that's all.

[UK1679666180]

I took it from an offensive standpoint, production and value are two separate issues, Lee will be better offensively than Tejada, but Tejada with a productive year will have more value than Lee b/c of positional changes.

 

Murton will likely bring more production offensively then Pierre, something that Pierre's speed likely won't be able to compensate for.

 

Defensively, Pierre is better b/c of the range, Juan can cover alot more ground than Murton, both have avg. instincts, neither have strong arms w/Murton's probably stronger than Pierre, who has below avg. arm strength w/similar accuracy.

[goonys evil twin]

The problem I have is saying a Minor League player will out produce a Major leauge ready player who has had a pretty good career.

 

Why do you have a problem saying that? Nobody is saying Murton is going to outproduce Brian Giles this year. They are saying Murton could outproduce Juan Pierre and Jacque Jones this year. Some think he will. Others are unsure. There's absolutely nothing wrong with it. The only absurd things to say would be Murton will definitely outproduce Pierre, or Pierre will definitely outproduce Murton.

[RynoRules]

I think what he means is that, as a rule, he gives the benefit of the doubt to guys who have shown they can hit ML pitching. This, of course, is problematic b/c if one is never given the chance to hit ML pitching, how can one prove he can do so?

[goonys evil twin]

I think what he means is that, as a rule, he gives the benefit of the doubt to guys who have shown they can hit ML pitching. This, of course, is problematic b/c if one is never given the chance to hit ML pitching, how can one prove he can do so?

 

That's fine. But the point is, it was initially written that Murton is likely to be the best OF on the team this year. Others responsed, many in some sort of agreement with that statement. And this guy then called that thought ridiculous, and anybody who thought that ridiculous.

 

If you want to give the benefit of the doubt to a vet, go right ahead. But don't start calling people ridiculous for having a different opinion.

 

Minor league players will outperform established major leaguers when they get the chance. That is not to say all minor leaguers will do that, but it does happen, and it happens quite frequently as a matter of fact. It would be rather foolish to simply assume an established vet will outperform a prospect every time.

 

People who think Murton is likely to outproduce Pierre don't say that simply because he is a kid and because Pierre is a veteran. They think that because they know what Pierre has done in his career, and think they have a pretty good idea of what he is likely to do this year. And people know what Murton has done as a pro, including major league time, and they think they have a pretty good idea what he will do.

 

Suggesting Murton will outproduce Pierre is hardly a major proclamation. Unless your CF is a superstar (which Pierre is not) you better hope your corner OF can outproduce him.

[DiamondMind]

Until Murton proves he can succeed at the major league level, Soriano is the better player. However, one could say Murton is better due to his age and contract status. Still, the point remains, end of story, no arguments, that right now Soriano is the better player. Let me know when Murton posts 4 years straight of 800+ OPS. I don't want to hear about stadiums or leagues or whatever. Four years of 800+ is all that matters, you can't pick and choose what stats you want to use.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Until Murton proves he can succeed at the major league level, Soriano is the better player. However, one could say Murton is better due to his age and contract status. Still, the point remains, end of story, no arguments, that right now Soriano is the better player. Let me know when Murton posts 4 years straight of 800+ OPS. I don't want to hear about stadiums or leagues or whatever. Four years of 800+ is all that matters, you can't pick and choose what stats you want to use.

 

Isn't blindly looking at OPS without respect to ballpark or anything else picking and choosing?

[goonys evil twin]

Until Murton proves he can succeed at the major league level, Soriano is the better player. However, one could say Murton is better due to his age and contract status. Still, the point remains, end of story, no arguments, that right now Soriano is the better player. Let me know when Murton posts 4 years straight of 800+ OPS. I don't want to hear about stadiums or leagues or whatever. Four years of 800+ is all that matters, you can't pick and choose what stats you want to use.

 

Soriano probably is better than Murton right now. But I wouldn't be shocked if Murton finishes the year with better numbers, and I expect him to be better by next year. Regardless, that is not the question. The question is what does that do for the team. That trade would leave you with no LF and a second baseman who is, at best, a minor upgrade to Walker, but may be a downgrade. Not to mention, it's a hell of a lot more expensive and very damaging to the team's future without really helping the 2006 club.

 

Oh, and if you insist on waiting for 4 year of 800+ OPS before saying Murton is better, you'll be very late for the boat. Do you need to wait for Chase Utley to have 4 years under his belt before you say he's better than Brett Boone?

[CubfaninCA]

Pierre's more valuable than Murton. I think the obvious indicator is that Pierre's one of the best leadoff men in the game and Murton's currently a mere 6 or 7 hitter. Pierre's speed is quite an important asset.

[Neuby]

If Soranio can some how net us Manny Ramirez you can trade Murton.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Pierre's more valuable than Murton. I think the obvious indicator is that Pierre's one of the best leadoff men in the game and Murton's currently a mere 6 or 7 hitter. Pierre's speed is quite an important asset.

 

His speed has value, and it's already reflected in his production by means of beat out singles, extra bases on balls in the gap, stolen bases, etc. Murton's still pretty likely to match or better Pierre's production, and there's not a lot outside of that helping Pierre's cause.

[CubfaninCA]

Pierre's more valuable than Murton. I think the obvious indicator is that Pierre's one of the best leadoff men in the game and Murton's currently a mere 6 or 7 hitter. Pierre's speed is quite an important asset.

 

His speed has value, and it's already reflected in his production by means of beat out singles, extra bases on balls in the gap, stolen bases, etc. Murton's still pretty likely to match or better Pierre's production, and there's not a lot outside of that helping Pierre's cause.

 

Speed can't only be measured as tangible. This has been argued over and over here though, so I'll leave it at that.

Edited February 23, 2006 by CubfaninCA

[goonys evil twin]

Pierre's more valuable than Murton. I think the obvious indicator is that Pierre's one of the best leadoff men in the game and Murton's currently a mere 6 or 7 hitter. Pierre's speed is quite an important asset.

 

He's a "mere 6 or 7 hitter" only because Dusty is likely to put him there (or lower). He could hit 2nd, and outproduce Pierre, or hit 7th and outproduce Pierre. Either way, he's better. And when you consider the Cubs at least have Pie in the minors who could be a decent CF to replace Pierre, while they have no corner OF depth, the whole "value" thing could go further in Murton's direction.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Pierre's more valuable than Murton. I think the obvious indicator is that Pierre's one of the best leadoff men in the game and Murton's currently a mere 6 or 7 hitter. Pierre's speed is quite an important asset.

 

His speed has value, and it's already reflected in his production by means of beat out singles, extra bases on balls in the gap, stolen bases, etc. Murton's still pretty likely to match or better Pierre's production, and there's not a lot outside of that helping Pierre's cause.

 

Speed can't only be measured as only tangible. This has been argued over and over here though, so I'll leave it at that.

 

Whatever you want to attribute to speed, Murton is a pretty fast guy as well. There's not an enormous difference.

[CubfaninCA]

Pierre's more valuable than Murton. I think the obvious indicator is that Pierre's one of the best leadoff men in the game and Murton's currently a mere 6 or 7 hitter. Pierre's speed is quite an important asset.

 

He's a "mere 6 or 7 hitter" only because Dusty is likely to put him there (or lower). He could hit 2nd, and outproduce Pierre, or hit 7th and outproduce Pierre. Either way, he's better. And when you consider the Cubs at least have Pie in the minors who could be a decent CF to replace Pierre, while they have no corner OF depth, the whole "value" thing could go further in Murton's direction.

 

I recall you preferring Murton as the 4th outfielder. Has Murton's stock went up in your opinion or do you just really dislike Pierre??

[CubfaninCA]

Pierre's more valuable than Murton. I think the obvious indicator is that Pierre's one of the best leadoff men in the game and Murton's currently a mere 6 or 7 hitter. Pierre's speed is quite an important asset.

 

His speed has value, and it's already reflected in his production by means of beat out singles, extra bases on balls in the gap, stolen bases, etc. Murton's still pretty likely to match or better Pierre's production, and there's not a lot outside of that helping Pierre's cause.

 

Speed can't only be measured as only tangible. This has been argued over and over here though, so I'll leave it at that.

 

Whatever you want to attribute to speed, Murton is a pretty fast guy as well. There's not an enormous difference.

 

Top 10 speed guy vs. middle of the packer?? Can't agree.

[BigbadB]

I'm the one that was hoping to see Murton as a 4th outfielder. Mainly because a 4th outfielder gets a lot of at bats/playing time, and we don't have a good one. A Jones/Murton platoon in left field would have worked for me if we had a good production guy in RF. Unfortunately, we don't have that.

[CubinNY]

Pierre's more valuable than Murton. I think the obvious indicator is that Pierre's one of the best leadoff men in the game and Murton's currently a mere 6 or 7 hitter. Pierre's speed is quite an important asset.

 

He's a "mere 6 or 7 hitter" only because Dusty is likely to put him there (or lower). He could hit 2nd, and outproduce Pierre, or hit 7th and outproduce Pierre. Either way, he's better. And when you consider the Cubs at least have Pie in the minors who could be a decent CF to replace Pierre, while they have no corner OF depth, the whole "value" thing could go further in Murton's direction.

 

I recall you preferring Murton as the 4th outfielder. Has Murton's stock went up in your opinion or do you just really dislike Pierre??

 

I won't answer for Goony, but Murton is a fourth outfielder for a team that has competent outfielders. He would be a 4th outfielder on the Mets for example. Pierre is a one trick pony. If his BABIP isn't high his speed will add little value becuase he doesn't walk.

 

Aside from "proven closer" I have a hard time thinking of a more overvalued faux-position then leadoff man.

[CubfaninCA]

Pierre's more valuable than Murton. I think the obvious indicator is that Pierre's one of the best leadoff men in the game and Murton's currently a mere 6 or 7 hitter. Pierre's speed is quite an important asset.

 

He's a "mere 6 or 7 hitter" only because Dusty is likely to put him there (or lower). He could hit 2nd, and outproduce Pierre, or hit 7th and outproduce Pierre. Either way, he's better. And when you consider the Cubs at least have Pie in the minors who could be a decent CF to replace Pierre, while they have no corner OF depth, the whole "value" thing could go further in Murton's direction.

 

I recall you preferring Murton as the 4th outfielder. Has Murton's stock went up in your opinion or do you just really dislike Pierre??

 

I won't answer for Goony, but Murton is a fourth outfielder for a team that has competent outfielders. He would be a 4th outfielder on the Mets for example. Pierre is a one trick pony. If his BABIP isn't high his speed will add little value becuase he doesn't walk.

 

Aside from "proven closer" I have a hard time thinking of a more overvalued faux-position then leadoff man.

 

Considering 3 & 4 is where teams put their most productive hitters, the leadoff spots pretty important.

[MPrior]

I guess I have two things to say:

 

First, with regards to the production vs. value thing, it's worth pointing out that, 1.) As far as scoring runs goes, production matters, while value does not; and 2.) if we are to discuss value, we also must consider how much each player is costing the team. And Murton costs much, much less than Pierre, and especially Soriano, and has a pretty good shot at significantly outproducting both of them.

 

My second thing is in response to this:

 

Aside from "proven closer" I have a hard time thinking of a more overvalued faux-position then leadoff man.

Considering 3 & 4 is where teams put their most productive hitters, the leadoff spots pretty important.

 

I don't think it's the leadoff spot that's overvalued. It's the leadoff hitter. Especially when people laud someone with the moniker "true leadoff hitter" as though that made them drastically more valuable; if I were given the opportunity to construct what I thought was the best possible lineup from all of the available players, it would not have a "true leadoff hitter" in it. I would pick the most productive player at each position, and construct a lineup with what I've got.

 

The most distinguishing characteristic of a leadoff hitter is a lack of power; OBP and speed are important, but if I've got someone with OBP, speed, and significant power, he's gonna hit in the middle of my order, not at the top. Bobby Abreu is a good example. The one thing that Juan Pierre has that pigeonholes him as a leadoff hitter is the fact that he can't hit for power.

[fromthestretch]

Considering 3 & 4 is where teams put their most productive hitters, the leadoff spots pretty important.

 

I don't think anyone is arguing the importance of a leadoff hitter. However, what I think people are arguing is what is important to have in a leadoff hitter. Running fast isn't at the top of the list. Getting on base is. If Pierre doesn't hit over .300, his OBP won't be all that great. The only other thing he provides is speed, and I don't care how fast he can run, his speed is worthless if he's not on base to use it.

 

Pierre is a decent leadoff hitter. He's shown that there are seasons where he can be among the league's best table-setters. He's also had two seasons where he probably would have been better off batting eighth. Regardless, he's an improvement over Neifi Perez and the 2005 version of Corey Patterson. But I would have been just as happy had the Cubs plugged Walker into the leadoff spot, pencilled Murton in as the #2 hitter, and overpaid for a better right-fielder either via trade or free agency.

 

As for the Murton vs. Pierre issue, I think there's a very good chance that Murton could outproduce Pierre in 2006...if he's given 500+ plate appearances.

 

This is all moot though. If the Cubs are going to contend, they need decent years out of both players.

[BigbadB]

Considering 3 & 4 is where teams put their most productive hitters, the leadoff spots pretty important.

 

I don't think anyone is arguing the importance of a leadoff hitter. However, what I think people are arguing is what is important to have in a leadoff hitter. Running fast isn't at the top of the list. Getting on base is. If Pierre doesn't hit over .300, his OBP won't be all that great. The only other thing he provides is speed, and I don't care how fast he can run, his speed is worthless if he's not on base to use it.

 

Pierre is a decent leadoff hitter. He's shown that there are seasons where he can be among the league's best table-setters. He's also had two seasons where he probably would have been better off batting eighth. Regardless, he's an improvement over Neifi Perez and the 2005 version of Corey Patterson. But I would have been just as happy had the Cubs plugged Walker into the leadoff spot, pencilled Murton in as the #2 hitter, and overpaid for a better right-fielder either via trade or free agency.

 

As for the Murton vs. Pierre issue, I think there's a very good chance that Murton could outproduce Pierre in 2006...if he's given 500+ plate appearances.

 

This is all moot though. If the Cubs are going to contend, they need decent years out of both players.

 

Well put. Pierre has had over 700 plate appearances in each of the last 3 years and he's scored no more than 100 runs in any of those years. He's had Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Delgado and Todd Helton hitting behind him during that span.

 

He's durable, I'll give him that. But, anyone who can supply a respectable OBP at the top of the order can score 100 runs, speed or no speed, in 700 plate appearances.

 

Grady Sizemore scored 1 more run than Pierre last year in 120 less plate appearances. Grady probably possesses speed more like Murton than Pierre. David Dellucci had 426 plate appearances in the lead off spot last year, and scored 76 times. That's 275 less plate appearances than Pierre. Dellucci is slower than molasses.

 

Who will ever forget Mark Bellhorn's run at the lead off spot back in 2002, when he scored 48 runs in just 250 plate appearances. That's almost 1/3 of the trips to the plate as Pierre last year, or the year before that, or even the year before that. Bellhorn is probably slower than Dellucci.

 

The Cubs used Todd Walker as a lead off hitter in 2004. He had 260 plate appearances and 45 runs scored. Given another 440 plate appearances to equal 700 like Pierre, I don't think it's a stretch to think Walker might have been able to achieve 100. We all know how fast Walker is. Walker isn't as durable as Pierre, I'll give you that. And he is on the wrong side of 30. Walker got next to no at bats in the lead off spot in 2005 after doing a tremendous job in 2004. Meanwhile, pathetic excuse of a lead off hitter after another ran out there day after day. I have no doubt Murton would have been better than most of them. Speed is nice. But, I see no evidence that Pierre's speed creates more production than a less speedy guy who can hit for more power and get on base at a higher percentage.

 

Getting on base for a lead off hitter is priority #1. Staying on base so that the big boppers can bring you in is priority #2.

 

I don't dislike Pierre. I'm just not all that enamored with him. Pierre and Walker at the top of the order could be a nice tandem for our production team of Lee and Ramirez. But, would it be more productive than Matt Murton hitting 1st and Walker hitting 2nd? Murton was on pace to score close to 90 runs hitting mostly at the bottom of the order of a really bad offensive team last year in 700 plate appearances.

 

Walker 2.5m, Murton 350K, Pierre 6m. I like Pierre in general, but he's overpriced, I felt we overpaid in talent to get him, and he wasn't the biggest need on this team. Overall improvement in OBP was the major need of this team, and they traded for a guy fresh off a .326 OBP season. He doesn't draw walks, and this team needs guys who can draw walks AND provide quality offensive production.

[Brian]

I like Pierre in general, but he's overpriced, I felt we overpaid in talent to get him, and he wasn't the biggest need on this team.

 

Pierre imo was a classic example of setting up a team around the personel. A Pierre type was one of the biggest needs, becuase with this mananager we need to have a slam dunk no doubt about it leadoff hitter, or else he'll make stupid decisions about who to put there. Pierre was the guy that Hendry could get, and I really bet by the end of the season having Juan Pierre in center and leading off is not going to be near a problem for the success or failure of this team. Giving up 3 pitchers including 2 top prospects (within or system) may have been a bit much, but i'm not sure that they are going to haunt Jim down the line.

[BigbadB]

Well, I'd love to tell Hendry what I think of the concept of building a team around how the manager will use each individual player.

 

In the end, I agree that Pierre won't be the problem when we look back at all the things that went wrong in 2006. I think we will be discussing the same thing we've been discussing the last several years though. And that is lack of plate discipline and the inability of the manager to use the right tools for the job (ie. batting Neifi 2nd behind Pierre).

[Tim]

Well, I'd love to tell Hendry what I think of the concept of building a team around how the manager will use each individual player.

 

In the end, I agree that Pierre won't be the problem when we look back at all the things that went wrong in 2006. I think we will be discussing the same thing we've been discussing the last several years though. And that is lack of plate discipline and the inability of the manager to use the right tools for the job (ie. batting Neifi 2nd behind Pierre).

I think when I look back at this year, I'll look to the same thing as last year -- the pitching health. If we get fully healthy years from Prior, Z & Wood I think we'll be very happy at the end of the year. If we don't get healthy years from those guys, I don't think the offense is going to matter much.

 

The best reason I can think of for stressing "guys who can catch the ball" is to reduce the number of pitches those guys have to throw per game.