Three Words: PE-CO-TA (Player Projections)

[JGalt73]

gross. i sure hope he doesn't get 400 ABs.

yeah and how do they figure cedeno/walker/neifi are going to get 1200 PA. Guess Hairston is getting 0 PA at 2nd.

 

PECOTA forecasts playing time in addition to a player's rate statistics. These forecasts are based on a player's previous record of performance, and do not incorporate any additional information about managerial decisions."

Later in the year BP sets up more accurate playing time scenarios for a given roster to predict runs scored/allowed.

[Rob]

I'm diggin the comparables list for Julio Franco. :lol:

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Walker's finished here. If PECOTA wants to be realistic it should do a projection for Neifi.

 

Heeeeeere's Neifi...

 

.263/.295/.358 in 407 PA, 1.7 VORP

 

Yikes, I'm less optimistic than BP when it comes to predicting Neifi's 2006 numbers.

[stitchface]

Walker's finished here. If PECOTA wants to be realistic it should do a projection for Neifi.

 

Heeeeeere's Neifi...

 

.263/.295/.358 in 407 PA, 1.7 VORP

 

Yikes, I'm less optimistic than BP when it comes to predicting Neifi's 2006 numbers.

 

 

less optimistic? Meaning he'll have more ABs?

[frostwyrm]

Walker's finished here. If PECOTA wants to be realistic it should do a projection for Neifi.

 

Heeeeeere's Neifi...

 

.263/.295/.358 in 407 PA, 1.7 VORP

 

.295 OBP? He's gotten 57% of his career at bats with the Rockies and still only has a career .301 OBP. He'll be 33 in June and he's not in Colorado anymore. .295 seems very optimistic to me.

[bhogg]

IF maddux is allowed to be the 4th starter, I think he'll flourish.

 

I don't know what this means. His job will be the same regardless. And over the course of the year, he'll face the same level of competition regardless. If those guys are hurt and they try to get him to throw 8-9 innings a game, it will have an effect, but I don't see that happening. Spot in the rotation doesn't really have an effect on performance. The only exception might be if you took an unstable unproven kid and made him your opening day guy and put all your hopes on him. That stress might affect him.

 

But Greg's spot in the order is not going to affect how he pitches.

 

 

It just means that I think there is less pressure on Maddux when the big guns are ahead of him. Seems like the past few years, Maddux has been relied on to be as high as the #2 starter.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Walker's finished here. If PECOTA wants to be realistic it should do a projection for Neifi.

 

Heeeeeere's Neifi...

 

.263/.295/.358 in 407 PA, 1.7 VORP

 

Yikes, I'm less optimistic than BP when it comes to predicting Neifi's 2006 numbers.

 

 

less optimistic? Meaning he'll have more ABs?

 

I don't think he can put up a .295 OBP.

[mhuber92211]

Actually if the starting 6 can get those numbers and Williams can improve on his (I doubt with those numbers they would stay with him for that many starts) then thats a pretty solid rotation. Any bullpen numbers yet?

 

I do think that Barrett, Lee & Ramirez are pretty low. The only person above .300 BA will be Pierre? That seems off.

[JGalt73]

Actually if the starting 6 can get those numbers and Williams can improve on his (I doubt with those numbers they would stay with him for that many starts) then thats a pretty solid rotation. Any bullpen numbers yet?

 

I do think that Barrett, Lee & Ramirez are pretty low. The only person above .300 BA will be Pierre? That seems off.

 

Bullpen:

Demptster 1.45 WHIP, 3.97 ERA, 7.0 VORP

Eyre 1.40 WHIP, 4.28 ERA, 5.6 VORP

Howry 1.29 WHIP, 3.98 ERA, 6.7 VORP

Novoa 1.36 WHIP, 4.16 ERA, 4.9 VORP

Ohman 1.42 WHIP, 3.88 ERA, 6.5 VORP

Williamson 1.29 WHIP, 3.43 ERA, 9.3 VORP

Wuertz 1.36 WHIP, 4.10 ERA, 8.3 VORP

 

With just these numbers can you pick out the $3M+ players from the $1M (or less) players?

Edited January 28, 2006 by JGalt73

[jyoung55]

Available now at BP, no work for me today...

 

The "rookies" projections:

 

Cedeno .274/.320/.387, 13.4 VORP in 473 PA

Murton .281/.343/.418, 8.5 VORP in 542 PA

 

...more to come...

 

Is VORP normalized to position, or is defense included, or both? Why does Cedeno get more VORP with lower rate stats over fewer PAs?

 

VORP is additive, position dependent, and only includes offense.

 

Then why is Barrett's so low? He is near the top of the list for offensive catchers.

[jyoung55]

Actually if the starting 6 can get those numbers and Williams can improve on his (I doubt with those numbers they would stay with him for that many starts) then thats a pretty solid rotation. Any bullpen numbers yet?

 

I do think that Barrett, Lee & Ramirez are pretty low. The only person above .300 BA will be Pierre? That seems off.

 

Bullpen:

Demptster 1.45 WHIP, 3.97 ERA, 7.0 VORP

Eyre 1.40 WHIP, 4.28 ERA, 5.6 VORP

Howry 1.29 WHIP, 3.98 ERA, 6.7 VORP

Novoa 1.36 WHIP, 4.16 ERA, 4.9 VORP

Ohman 1.42 WHIP, 3.88 ERA, 6.5 VORP

Williamson 1.29 WHIP, 3.43 ERA, 9.3 VORP

Wuertz 1.36 WHIP, 4.10 ERA, 8.3 VORP

 

With just these numbers can you pick out the $3M+ players from the $1M (or less) players?

 

If those numbers are correct, it's going to be a looooooonngg year.

 

Probably unfair on Dempster's numbers, as I imagine starting numbers are included in there, thus inflating the ERA significantly.

[rocket]

Walker's finished here. If PECOTA wants to be realistic it should do a projection for Neifi.

 

Heeeeeere's Neifi...

 

.263/.295/.358 in 407 PA, 1.7 VORP

 

Yikes, I'm less optimistic than BP when it comes to predicting Neifi's 2006 numbers.

 

 

less optimistic? Meaning he'll have more ABs?

 

I don't think he can put up a .295 OBP.

 

You're probably forgetting to take into account Neifi's inevitable .368/.403/.559 April line Neifi will put up to assure he starts at SS every day.

[CubFanPhilly]

I plugged the PECOTA projections into Tim's runs created calculator and I come up with 727 runs. Better than the 703 from '05, worse than '04 and probably not good enough to contend in '06.

[JGalt73]

I plugged the PECOTA projections into Tim's runs created calculator and I come up with 727 runs. Better than the 703 from '05, worse than '04 and probably not good enough to contend in '06.

 

Nice, what did you use for playing time?

 

By comparison, in a BP chat they have the Cards scoring 750-775 runs next year.

[frostwyrm]

Bullpen:

Demptster 1.45 WHIP, 3.97 ERA, 7.0 VORP

Eyre 1.40 WHIP, 4.28 ERA, 5.6 VORP

Howry 1.29 WHIP, 3.98 ERA, 6.7 VORP

 

If the above projections prove correct Hendry deserves to be fired.

[CubinNY]

Does anyone have data on the accuracy of PECTOA projections over the last three years? What I am looking for are standard deviations or + or - percentages.

 

I am interested in determining if these data are worthwhile or are just fun food for thought stuff. I bookmarked the ones from the baseball think factory for 2005 at the begininning of last season but when I returned the page wasn't there.

 

Thanks in Advance

[abuck1220]

Actually if the starting 6 can get those numbers and Williams can improve on his (I doubt with those numbers they would stay with him for that many starts) then thats a pretty solid rotation. Any bullpen numbers yet?

 

I do think that Barrett, Lee & Ramirez are pretty low. The only person above .300 BA will be Pierre? That seems off.

 

Bullpen:

Demptster 1.45 WHIP, 3.97 ERA, 7.0 VORP

Eyre 1.40 WHIP, 4.28 ERA, 5.6 VORP

Howry 1.29 WHIP, 3.98 ERA, 6.7 VORP

Novoa 1.36 WHIP, 4.16 ERA, 4.9 VORP

Ohman 1.42 WHIP, 3.88 ERA, 6.5 VORP

Williamson 1.29 WHIP, 3.43 ERA, 9.3 VORP

Wuertz 1.36 WHIP, 4.10 ERA, 8.3 VORP

 

With just these numbers can you pick out the $3M+ players from the $1M (or less) players?

 

If those numbers are correct, it's going to be a looooooonngg year.

 

Probably unfair on Dempster's numbers, as I imagine starting numbers are included in there, thus inflating the ERA significantly.

 

that, or they think his 2006 will be more like the nearly 1000 bad innings he threw from 1998-2004 than the 60 or whatever it was good innings he threw last year.

 

as i've said before, i'm concerned about this bullpen...much more so than the rotation. dempster has the potential to really be bad. hopefully he found a niche as a reliever because he's never been much good as a starter.

[USSoccer]

How accurate was PECOTA last season? I'm looking at the pen numbers and they seem really bad. Also, I think Ramirez and Barrett's lines are low.

[CubFanPhilly]

I plugged the PECOTA projections into Tim's runs created calculator and I come up with 727 runs. Better than the 703 from '05, worse than '04 and probably not good enough to contend in '06.

 

Nice, what did you use for playing time?

 

By comparison, in a BP chat they have the Cards scoring 750-775 runs next year.

 

Probably too optimistic regarding Walker, Murton & Cedeno, but here you go:

 

              ABs  AVG   OBP   SLG   SB  CS 
Barrett       450  .272  .336  .443    1   1 
Blanco       150  .210  .270  .330    0   0 
Lee           600  .298  .383  .570    8   4 
Walker        350  .279  .341  .424    1   1 
Hairston     325  .260  .320  .360    7   4  
Ramierez      500  .293  .356  .540    1   1 	
Cendeno       400  .274  .320  .387   12   3  
Perez        375  .270  .300  .370    6   2  
Murton        400  .281  .343  .418    7   3  
Grissom      175  .220  .265  .325    0   0  
Pierre        625  .297  .348  .361   40  15 	
Jones         500  .268  .327  .441   12   5  
Mabry        300  .260  .310  .375    0   0   
Pitchers      350  .200  .230  .300    0   0 
                                             RC
Totals       5500  .271  .328  .420   95  39 727
2004 Cubs    5584  .270  .324  .440   65  39 703

[USSoccer]

I plugged the PECOTA projections into Tim's runs created calculator and I come up with 727 runs. Better than the 703 from '05, worse than '04 and probably not good enough to contend in '06.

 

Nice, what did you use for playing time?

 

By comparison, in a BP chat they have the Cards scoring 750-775 runs next year.

 

Probably too optimistic regarding Walker, Murton & Cedeno, but here you go:

 

              ABs  AVG   OBP   SLG   SB  CS 
Barrett       450  .272  .336  .443    1   1 
Blanco       150  .210  .270  .330    0   0 
Lee           600  .298  .383  .570    8   4 
Walker        350  .279  .341  .424    1   1 
Hairston     325  .260  .320  .360    7   4  
Ramierez      500  .293  .356  .540    1   1 	
Cendeno       400  .274  .320  .387   12   3  
Perez        375  .270  .300  .370    6   2  
Murton        400  .281  .343  .418    7   3  
Grissom      175  .220  .265  .325    0   0  
Pierre        625  .297  .348  .361   40  15 	
Jones         500  .268  .327  .441   12   5  
Mabry        300  .260  .310  .375    0   0   
Pitchers      350  .200  .230  .300    0   0 
                                             RC
Totals       5500  .271  .328  .420   95  39 727
2004 Cubs    5584  .270  .324  .440   65  39 703

 

Why did you give Ramirez 100 fewer AB's than Lee?

[BigbadB]

Walks alone would probably account for a difference in close to 40-50 at bats. Lee batting 3rd and Ramirez hitting 4th is another 15+ at bats (guestimate) for Lee.

 

Combine that with the fact Lee has been more durable throughout a full season and voila!

[USSoccer]

Walks alone would probably account for a difference in close to 40-50 at bats. Lee batting 3rd and Ramirez hitting 4th is another 15+ at bats (guestimate) for Lee.

 

Combine that with the fact Lee has been more durable throughout a full season and voila!

 

So you think that Ramirez will draw more walks than Lee?

[BigbadB]

Walks alone would probably account for a difference in close to 40-50 at bats. Lee batting 3rd and Ramirez hitting 4th is another 15+ at bats (guestimate) for Lee.

 

Combine that with the fact Lee has been more durable throughout a full season and voila!

 

So you think that Ramirez will draw more walks than Lee?

 

Whoops. I calculated that wrong, didn't I? Because Lee will have more walks, he'll show less at bats per plate appearance, so I did that backwards. Nevermind. But, the batting higher in the line up and durability argument I'll still argue. :P

[USSoccer]

Walks alone would probably account for a difference in close to 40-50 at bats. Lee batting 3rd and Ramirez hitting 4th is another 15+ at bats (guestimate) for Lee.

 

Combine that with the fact Lee has been more durable throughout a full season and voila!

 

So you think that Ramirez will draw more walks than Lee?

 

Whoops. I calculated that wrong, didn't I? Because Lee will have more walks, he'll show less at bats per plate appearance, so I did that backwards. Nevermind. But, the batting higher in the line up and durability argument I'll still argue. :P

 

I am not going to argue with durability (although Lee plays the position with the least wear and tear), but I can forsee a scenario where Ramirez bats 3rd, and draws more walks. I think that Ramirez will be the more dangerous hitter by the time 06 is done.

[JGalt73]

Does anyone have data on the accuracy of PECTOA projections over the last three years? What I am looking for are standard deviations or + or - percentages.

 

I am interested in determining if these data are worthwhile or are just fun food for thought stuff. I bookmarked the ones from the baseball think factory for 2005 at the begininning of last season but when I returned the page wasn't there.

 

Thanks in Advance

 

After year one of PECOTA, BP compared it to other prediction systems here.

 

Correlation coefficients for OPS: .700-.711

Correlation coefficients for ERA: .479-.486

 

PECOTA performs better than most, but its certainly not ironclad. On the pitching side, no one's got a good prediction system. The Bill James Handbook took its first crack at pitcher projections this year, without the help of James who doesn't believe a good system can be made.