2006 Adam Dunn Thread (trade proposals encouraged)

[rocket]

Anybody notice he had a sac fly in game one this season? He's improving his all-around game, I guess...

What's the old saying about even a blind squirrel finding a nut once in a while?

 

are sac flies really that great? if instead of adam dunn hitting 7 hrs with runners on 3rd less than 2 outs between 2003-2005, he hit 7 deep fly balls, no one would be talking about his lack of sac flies as if it's some kind of detriment to his game.

[gus_dog]

Adam Dunn - the modern day Dave Kingman.

 

Tremendous power, tremendous potential.

 

Anybody notice he had a sac fly in game one this season? He's improving his all-around game, I guess...

 

Kingman's career ops was .780, Dunn's is .891 and he hasn't even reached his prime yet. That's not a very good comparison.

 

Well, ops notwithstanding, he reminds me of Kingman, a very powerful, free-swinging, crappy fielding player. Big guy too.

[ManCrushOnNomar]

Anybody notice he had a sac fly in game one this season? He's improving his all-around game, I guess...

What's the old saying about even a blind squirrel finding a nut once in a while?

 

are sac flies really that great? if instead of adam dunn hitting 7 hrs with runners on 3rd less than 2 outs between 2003-2005, he hit 7 deep fly balls, no one would be talking about his lack of sac flies as if it's some kind of detriment to his game.

I'm more interested in his K's with runners on 3rd with less than 2 outs in direct proportion to his hits in the same scenario. That would be a good judge of the value of the sac fly.

[Guest]

Another sac fly today. Let the kneeling and prostrating commence.

[jjgman21]

I really don't get it. I don't understand how people can talk about how 27 outs are precious, then discount the significance of how important it is to get the other team out 27 times. you can't have it both ways. you can't say Dunn is so valuable because he doesn't make outs, then say the ability to get the other team out doesn't matter. not making outs is very important. getting the other team out when you have an opportunity is just as important.

 

I think an illustration is helpful. Dunn and Kevin Mench are players in similar situations. they both play for teams with great offenses and terrible flyball pitching, and play half their games in launching pads. even that PVR study shows that in fewer innings in leftfield, Mench made 15 more plays than Dunn did. that's 15 outs that Mench created that Dunn would not have. spread it out over a full season, that's probably 22-25 outs in a year or more.

 

what would happen on those outs are difficult to define. but it's safe to say alot of them turned into doubles since a play not made in the outfield turns into a ball finding green either along the line, in the gap, or over the head. the only time it only equals a single is balls in front of the outfielder.

 

so much in the way we evalutated Wilkerson v. Pierre over the winter, let's look at what happens if those outs Dunn didn't get are subtracted from Dunn's offensive numbers.

 

let's say Dunn gives away the equivalent of 12 doubles and 12 singles when compared to Mench. take those twelve doubles and 12 singles away from Dunn, and his numbers are reduced to

 

.351/.473/.824

Mench was .328/.469/.797 last year.

 

outs are outs, no matter if you're on offense or defense. avoiding them on offense and getting them on defense when they are available is equally important. for all the mashing that Dunn does at the plate, his defense kills his team, and reduces his worth significantly. noone that truly values outs could say otherwise.

 

many of the concepts alluded to in Moneyball have been taken too far. this is one of them. defense is extremely important, because getting the other team to make 27 outs is just as important how your team does at avoiding making 27 outs. Dunn is still a plus player all things considered, but his defense makes him considerably less valuable.

[Warpticon]

I really don't get it. I don't understand how people can talk about how 27 outs are precious, then discount the significance of how important it is to get the other team out 27 times.

 

Easy. Pitching is the vast majority of what produces those 27 outs, and the difference between the best fielder and the worst fielder at a given position is rarely anywhere nearly as big as the difference between the best hitter and even an average hitter--especially in the outfield. Dunn is a huge offensive producer and a liability in the field at possibly the least important defensive position. It's not a matter of having it "both ways." When a hitter is at the plate, the only person who can make an out is himself. That is not the case in the field. Outs will be made via strikeout, in the infield, or in other parts of the outfield that he has no effect on whatsoever, but he has an effect every time he comes to the plate. The situations are not parallel, and that's why not making outs at the plate is more important than making outs in the field.

[David]

Not even close. Kingman didn't have near Dunn's AWESOME plate discipline.

Are you being sarcastic?

 

No, I'm not.

[jjgman21]

I really don't get it. I don't understand how people can talk about how 27 outs are precious, then discount the significance of how important it is to get the other team out 27 times.

 

Easy. Pitching is the vast majority of what produces those 27 outs, and the difference between the best fielder and the worst fielder at a given position is rarely anywhere nearly as big as the difference between the best hitter and even an average hitter--especially in the outfield. Dunn is a huge offensive producer and a liability in the field at possibly the least important defensive position. It's not a matter of having it "both ways." When a hitter is at the plate, the only person who can make an out is himself. That is not the case in the field. Outs will be made via strikeout, in the infield, or in other parts of the outfield that he has no effect on whatsoever, but he has an effect every time he comes to the plate. The situations are not parallel, and that's why not making outs at the plate is more important than making outs in the field.

 

it absolutely is a matter of having it both ways. the concept is that outs are precious. avoid them on offense, get them on defense. but you want to say x outs are really important, y outs are not so important. it's all about winning ballgames. both are incredibly important.

 

let's do the math. in about a year's worth of batting, 600 plate appearances, Dunn will avoid making an out approximately 230 times, Mench about 205. in a year's worth of chances to get an out in the field, Dunn will make about 25 fewer catches than a guy like Mench. the difference in outs avoided while at bat and outs given away in the field is equal. now you want to sit here and say that Dunn's 25 outs avoided is hugely important, but the 25 outs he gives back are not important. bs. in this case, the difference between a bad defender and an average defender is just as many outs as the difference between a very good hitter and an average hitter. the thesis in bold above just doesn't carry much weight when actually looking at the situation in terms of outs.

 

as I've heard many times, a pitcher has no control on what happens after he throws the ball. it is up to the fielders to make a play if there is contact. while the leftfielder doesn't ever have an impact on all 27 putouts, he has an effect on every ball in the range of play of the leftfielder. in the case of Dunn, it's fair to say that he gives back a dozen singles and a dozen doubles a year in offense with his poor defense when compared to a player like Kevin Mench. that has an impact on winning ballgames, and when comparing him to other leftfielders, I think it is fair to subtract those two dozen hits from his offensive stats. if he's responsible for his walks and his HRs, he's also responsible for the outs he doesn't get on defense.

 

as I already said, he's still a plus player. furthermore, I would generally prefer the offense over the defense. but pretending like his ineptitude in the field makes no / little difference on winning is absurd. his poor fielding significantly impacts his teams ability to win ballgames, and it significantly impacts his value as a baseball player.

[wolf stansson]

Not even close. Kingman didn't have near Dunn's AWESOME plate discipline.

Are you being sarcastic?

 

No, I'm not.

OBP/walks are the best measure of plate discipline.

 

02 - 158g, 128bb

03 - 116, 74

04 - 161, 108

05 - 160, 114

[Warpticon]

I really don't get it. I don't understand how people can talk about how 27 outs are precious, then discount the significance of how important it is to get the other team out 27 times.

 

Easy. Pitching is the vast majority of what produces those 27 outs, and the difference between the best fielder and the worst fielder at a given position is rarely anywhere nearly as big as the difference between the best hitter and even an average hitter--especially in the outfield. Dunn is a huge offensive producer and a liability in the field at possibly the least important defensive position. It's not a matter of having it "both ways." When a hitter is at the plate, the only person who can make an out is himself. That is not the case in the field. Outs will be made via strikeout, in the infield, or in other parts of the outfield that he has no effect on whatsoever, but he has an effect every time he comes to the plate. The situations are not parallel, and that's why not making outs at the plate is more important than making outs in the field.

 

it absolutely is a matter of having it both ways. the concept is that outs are precious. avoid them on offense, get them on defense. but you want to say x outs are really important, y outs are not so important. it's all about winning ballgames. both are incredibly important.

 

Really? Is that what I want to say? That's surprising. I was pretty sure I wanted to say that an individual player's ability to avoid outs offensively is more valuable than his ability to make outs in the field in regards to winning games. But hey, what do I know?

 

let's do the math. in about a year's worth of batting, 600 plate appearances, Dunn will avoid making an out approximately 230 times, Mench about 205. in a year's worth of chances to get an out in the field, Dunn will make about 25 fewer catches than a guy like Mench. the difference in outs avoided while at bat and outs given away in the field is equal. now you want to sit here and say that Dunn's 25 outs avoided is hugely important, but the 25 outs he gives back are not important. bs. in this case, the difference between a bad defender and an average defender is just as many outs as the difference between a very good hitter and an average hitter. the thesis in bold above just doesn't carry much weight when actually looking at the situation in terms of outs.

 

in the case of Dunn, it's fair to say that he gives back a dozen singles and a dozen doubles a year in offense with his poor defense when compared to a player like Kevin Mench.

 

Why is this fair to say? Because there is a predictive difference between the two? Even the article says that just there can be many other factors, from other fielders to the pitchers to the type of park the player plays in. You're making a rather bold assumption here. The model only takes into account outs recorded versus non-zero out-making opportunities. It doesn't have any quality to suggest that they're anything specific--not bloopers or warning track line shots, or just fly balls he loses in the sun. Assuming that half would be doubles is pretty much just unfounded speculation on your part. I agree that a player should be held accountable for what he surrenders defensively in being evaluated, but you seem to be employing a highly faulty means of doing so.

 

It's also noteworthy that despite your suggestion of this being the difference between a "bad defender and average defender," the stats you got this from suggest it's the difference between an average defender and a good defender. Equally good defenders on the list are Carlos Lee and Moises Alou, who sandwich Mench near the top of the list. And you're not taking into account the difference in the predicted data, which is the entire purpose of the data in that article.

 

as I already said, he's still a plus player. furthermore, I would generally prefer the offense over the defense. but pretending like his ineptitude in the field makes no / little difference on winning is absurd. his poor fielding significantly impacts his teams ability to win ballgames, and it significantly impacts his value as a baseball player.

 

I haven't seen anybody "pretend" that his fielding has no effect. I've seen people suggest that his fielding isn't as inept as frequently suggested, and that his offense far outweighs whatever weaknesses he has in the field.

[jjgman21]

 

 

Why is this fair to say? Because there is a predictive difference between the two? Even the article says that just there can be many other factors, from other fielders to the pitchers to the type of park the player plays in. You're making a rather bold assumption here. The model only takes into account outs recorded versus non-zero out-making opportunities.

 

I haven't ever even taken a stats class. it seemed reasonable to me that stats called "predicted outs by fielder" and "actual outs by fielder" can be subtracted to come up with the number of plays a player makes above some baseline. for Mench, in 108 starts, that total is 17. for Dunn, in 126 starts, that total is 2. so over the course of a full season, that would be closer to 21 or 22. use another defensive metric, zone rating, and Dunn doesn't get to about 10-11 balls a year that Mench does. add to that the fact that range isn't Dunn's biggest problem. harnessing the ball within the glove is. keep in mind that all those times that Dunn oles a ball he should have had, he doesn't get an error. 22-25 plays not made that Mench would is not an outrageous estimation, even without math skills. it's probably more.

 

also, one of the reasons I chose to use Mench as a comparison is their similar situations. they both are in very similar situations in terms of ballparks and pitching staffs.

 

 

It doesn't have any quality to suggest that they're anything specific--not bloopers or warning track line shots, or just fly balls he loses in the sun. Assuming that half would be doubles is pretty much just unfounded speculation on your part. I agree that a player should be held accountable for what he surrenders defensively in being evaluated, but you seem to be employing a highly faulty means of doing so.

 

does it really matter that we don't have this information? I think its safe to assume that Dunn failed to record an out on a variety of different balls that Mench would have/did. now you think about the variety of balls that go to the outfield and where they end up, and make an estimate. if anything, I was being generous to Dunn. bloopers that he doesn't get to are the equivalent to singles. line shots to the warning track, balls he loses in the sun, floaters down the line are doubles. balls that go between his legs are extra bases allowed.

 

speculation yes. not really unfounded. again, I don't have math skills, but this type of analysis doesn't require very precise measurement.

 

 

It's also noteworthy that despite your suggestion of this being the difference between a "bad defender and average defender," the stats you got this from suggest it's the difference between an average defender and a good defender. Equally good defenders on the list are Carlos Lee and Moises Alou, who sandwich Mench near the top of the list. And you're not taking into account the difference in the predicted data, which is the entire purpose of the data in that article.

 

throw out the outliners, and Mench is pretty much right in the middle in that study.

 

so I can assume it's safe to say you think there can be some fault in that study. are you willing to say it might have Dunn rated higher than he belongs?

 

I didn't use the predicted data regarding runs. I'm talking about outs. therefore, I used the same data about outs for a different purpose.

[treebird]

is very bad to make fun of dunn

[Transmogrified Tiger]

is very bad to make fun of dunn

 

He's making a run for the batting title.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

In his weekly chat, Buster Olney opines that Dunn could still be traded.

 

Dave S.: How about the Reds shopping for pitching? Who might get traded and what teams are in play?

 

Buster Olney: Dave S.: I wonder if Adam Dunn might be the big chip that Wayne Krivsky dangles to get young pitching (Boston, perhaps). There was some grumbling coming out of Reds camp that Dunn did not embrace first base as much as the team would've liked, and given Wayne's background, wonder if the high strikeout thing that Dunn has is his kind of player.

[rocket]

dunn is now officially a cubs killer!

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

dunn is now officially a cubs killer!

 

That may make a trade more likely. The Cubs love to get players who've killed them.

(see Blauser, Jeff; Gonzalez, Luis.)

[LoneStarCubFan]

Much like Carlos Lee a year ago, Dunn needs to get earholed.

[SouthSideRyan]

Much like Carlos Lee a year ago, Dunn needs to get earholed.

 

We'll lose half our hits that way.

[treebird]

bad day for dunn today, only one home run

 

better luck tomorrow

 

ps - 308/396/795

[wolf stansson]

ps - 308/396/795

That's not really, really, really good or anything is it?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

ps - 308/396/795

That's not really, really, really good or anything is it?

 

I dunno, but .310/.415/.833 is definitely better.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Give the Reds a couple of months to drop out of the race so I can revive some trade ideas.

[imb]

DOUCHEBAG MCGEE

[Big Z 38]

Dunn is doing this with a broken hand, too.

[ManCrushOnNomar]

DOUCHEBAG MCGEE

Offer is good without any limitation. If it happens anytime in the life of this board it'll happen.