Vance Breaks Down the NL Central

[CheeseHead Cubs Fan]

They are counting on JJ Hardy to hit - something he struggled with most of the year.

 

Post All-Star break, JJ put up a .308 BA and a .866 OPS. I wouldnt exactly call that struggling. Also, when looking at his numbers the first half of last year, you have to take into consideration that JJ basically skipped AAA because of a shoulder injury he suffered early in the 2004 season.

 

Why focus on just Post-AS stats? He hit .187 before the AS break.

That being said, he is going to have to hit better than a combined .247 for the year for the Brewers to make any noise.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

They are counting on JJ Hardy to hit - something he struggled with most of the year.

 

Post All-Star break, JJ put up a .308 BA and a .866 OPS. I wouldnt exactly call that struggling. Also, when looking at his numbers the first half of last year, you have to take into consideration that JJ basically skipped AAA because of a shoulder injury he suffered early in the 2004 season.

 

Why focus on just Post-AS stats? He hit .187 before the AS break.

That being said, he is going to have to hit better than a combined .247 for the year for the Brewers to make any noise.

 

Because he's a young player breaking into the big leagues? Making adjustments and improvements after struggling to start his rookie year is a good sign.

[CheeseHead Cubs Fan]

They are counting on JJ Hardy to hit - something he struggled with most of the year.

 

Post All-Star break, JJ put up a .308 BA and a .866 OPS. I wouldnt exactly call that struggling. Also, when looking at his numbers the first half of last year, you have to take into consideration that JJ basically skipped AAA because of a shoulder injury he suffered early in the 2004 season.

 

Why focus on just Post-AS stats? He hit .187 before the AS break.

That being said, he is going to have to hit better than a combined .247 for the year for the Brewers to make any noise.

 

Because he's a young player breaking into the big leagues? Making adjustments and improvements after struggling to start his rookie year is a good sign.

 

That I understand, I am not saying he will do horrible, but in the context of this thread JJ is going to have to hit well over .240 for the Brewers to win 90+ games and be Division champs.

[Drew Doughty]

And he's shown that he can over an extended period of time, although his season stats don't show that.

[Drew Doughty]

They are overrated, but the NL Central is probably the second weakest division in the league right now, just ahead of the NL West. They'll benefit from that. They'll also benefit from age.

 

I think they'll end up somewhere between 85-95 wins, depending on how well they play in the division. If they suck against the division, 3rd place, 85 wins. If they're good, 94-95 wins, 1st. That can also be said for at least the Cubs and Cardinals, probably the Astros too.

 

There's no way the Brewers can win 95 games. That being said, the Cards are still the favorites and the Cubs need them to come down to the 90-win plateau. The Cubs and the Cards have a chance of winning 90 games, but not the Astros or Brewers and certainly not the Pirates or Reds.

 

Why can't they? they have a solid top 3 with Sheets, Capuano, and Davis. They have a decent pen. A good young lineup. The only problem they'll run into is how much their age will hurt them, rather than help.

[SouthSideRyan]

Capuano? Did his one above average year with poor peripherals really establish him as anything??

[wolf stansson]

Capuano? Did his one above average year with poor peripherals really establish him as anything??

Whatever bro...Wins and K's are the only things that matter.

[rocket]

They are overrated, but the NL Central is probably the second weakest division in the league right now, just ahead of the NL West.

 

There's only 3 divisions. Based on your sentence, the NL Central is also the 2nd strongest division in the league.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

They are counting on JJ Hardy to hit - something he struggled with most of the year.

 

Post All-Star break, JJ put up a .308 BA and a .866 OPS. I wouldnt exactly call that struggling. Also, when looking at his numbers the first half of last year, you have to take into consideration that JJ basically skipped AAA because of a shoulder injury he suffered early in the 2004 season.

 

Why focus on just Post-AS stats? He hit .187 before the AS break.

That being said, he is going to have to hit better than a combined .247 for the year for the Brewers to make any noise.

 

Because he's a young player breaking into the big leagues? Making adjustments and improvements after struggling to start his rookie year is a good sign.

 

That I understand, I am not saying he will do horrible, but in the context of this thread JJ is going to have to hit well over .240 for the Brewers to win 90+ games and be Division champs.

 

And given what he's done in the minors and the adjustments he apparently made in the latter half of his first season (after the book had gotten out on him, no less), I don't think it's a stretch to believe Hardy will post a BA over .240.

[Drew Doughty]

They are overrated, but the NL Central is probably the second weakest division in the league right now, just ahead of the NL West.

 

There's only 3 divisions. Based on your sentence, the NL Central is also the 2nd strongest division in the league.

 

...

 

I was talking about the MLB as a whole.

[Drew Doughty]

Capuano? Did his one above average year with poor peripherals really establish him as anything??

 

Kind of tough to judge, seeing as how he's only had one full year to judge him on. If he puts up another season like last year, even if it's slightly worse, he'll be fine as a 3rd starter behind Davis and Sheets.

[TruffleShuffle]

i think the cards are the favorites until they display why they shouldn't be.

 

i also think that the cubs are behind the brewers, and, depending on clemens, the astros. and they deserve to be until THEY display why they shouldn't be.

 

Last year I was really fighting the tide of Cub Kool-Aid drinkers (not saying you were one of them) when I believed the team possessed too many problems in the bullpen and in low OBP players to do well. From what I've read on this board so far, I think there are a few more people that will join me on the pessimistic side of the aisle.

[Jake]

Capuano? Did his one above average year with poor peripherals really establish him as anything??

 

Kind of tough to judge, seeing as how he's only had one full year to judge him on. If he puts up another season like last year, even if it's slightly worse, he'll be fine as a 3rd starter behind Davis and Sheets.

 

If he puts up another season like last year,

Based on this line, the Pirates will win the division. If Duke puts together a full season like his partial. If Malholom does the same thing. If Ollie pitches like he did two years ago. If Kip pitches like he did three years ago. If Jack Wilson hits like he did two years ago. If Duffy hits 340 over a full season. And, I could go on.... Then, we'll win the division. How many people are picking the Pirates to win the division (Besides the Dallas Morning News?)

[UK1679666180]

Cards 89-95 wins

Cubs 82-88 wins

Astros 82-88 wins

Brewers 78-84 wins

Reds 75-81 wins

Pirates 69-75 wins

[abuck1220]

The Brewers are criminally overrated.

 

Couldn't agree with you more.

 

They were at .500 last year, honestly what have they done so well this offseason to push them into WC or Division champs?

 

the cubs were below .500 last year, and what have they done to push them into contention for the WC or the division?

[abuck1220]

They are overrated, but the NL Central is probably the second weakest division in the league right now, just ahead of the NL West. They'll benefit from that. They'll also benefit from age.

 

I think they'll end up somewhere between 85-95 wins, depending on how well they play in the division. If they suck against the division, 3rd place, 85 wins. If they're good, 94-95 wins, 1st. That can also be said for at least the Cubs and Cardinals, probably the Astros too.

 

There's no way the Brewers can win 95 games. That being said, the Cards are still the favorites and the Cubs need them to come down to the 90-win plateau. The Cubs and the Cards have a chance of winning 90 games, but not the Astros or Brewers and certainly not the Pirates or Reds.

 

i don't know how you can say there's 'no way' the brewers can improve by 14 games, but that the cubs 'have a chance' to improve by 11 games.

[CheeseHead Cubs Fan]

The Brewers are criminally overrated.

 

Couldn't agree with you more.

 

They were at .500 last year, honestly what have they done so well this offseason to push them into WC or Division champs?

 

the cubs were below .500 last year, and what have they done to push them into contention for the WC or the division?

 

More than the Brewers have and the Cubs are not "criminally overrated" as I was referencing SSR post.

[Balsa]

Brewers: I'm sorry, I think Sheets has the talent to be a #1 starter, but his frequent trips to the DL will soon resemble our own Wood. He has some kind of inner ear thing that throws off his balance, and I'd say that would prevent the Brew Crew from going anywhere.

 

In fact, I wouldn't say the Brew Crew are much improved from last year, whereas the Cubs have made several improvements over last year. We've upgraded at CF, leadoff, SS, LF, bench (no more Macias), we have more speed, and an improved bullpen.

 

Our pitching is the same situation as it is every year, but the Cubs have done a lot of improving in other areas. So I don't understand "The Brewers are Coming" attitude when the cubs have made a lot more improvements, and more significant ones at that. Hell, even if our starters do the same, we should win about 10 more games just through a better bullpen and a real leadoff hitter. How many games did you watch DLee get a hit with no one on board or the bullpen piss away a lead? Too many for me to count that's for sure...

[Balsa]

As far as the Cardinals, I hear that Braden Looper is a clone of LaTroy Hawkins in respect to pressure. (This coming from Mets fans)

[ManEatingTarp]

As far as the Cardinals, I hear that Braden Looper is a clone of LaTroy Hawkins in respect to pressure. (This coming from Mets fans)

 

I guess it's a good thing they won't try and make him the closer then.

[Outshined_One]

Ned Yost is a moron.

 

You know how awesome Dusty is when it comes to bullpen overmanagement, confusing lineups, strange calls, and seemingly no understanding of the game on the field?

 

Yost is equally awesome. The only difference is that he doesn't have much of a problem with playing young players.

 

The hype the Brewers are getting is reminiscent of the hype the Arizona Cardinals got this past offseason in the NFL. Weak division, hungry young talent, etc. Problem is, they're becoming a chic playoff pick before the season. That's like the kiss of death.

[CheeseHead Cubs Fan]

Ned Yost is a moron.

 

You know how awesome Dusty is when it comes to bullpen overmanagement, confusing lineups, strange calls, and seemingly no understanding of the game on the field?

 

Yost is equally awesome. The only difference is that he doesn't have much of a problem with playing young players.

 

The hype the Brewers are getting is reminiscent of the hype the Arizona Cardinals got this past offseason in the NFL. Weak division, hungry young talent, etc. Problem is, they're becoming a chic playoff pick before the season. That's like the kiss of death.

 

I completely agree regarding Yost. Many casual Brewers fans do not see the idiot lineups the guy puts together. To have Miller batting 6th is pathetic. To not slide Jenkins down in the line up when he was 2-21 is equal to Sammy's disaster in 04.

 

He is over hyped because he comes from the Braves org and the Brewers as a whole are way overrated.

[Mike Scott]

I know the Brewers have some good talent but I would be shocked if they won 90. I'm not sure how many people outside of Illinios and Wisconsin are calling the Brewers "overrated".

 

Most of the assessments on the Astros in this thread have been fair. Most.

 

Astros- At this point you cannot expect Ensberg to hit the way he did last year. The outfield is the worst in the division(now that berkman is heading to first) and the relief pitching behind lidge is average.

 

I'm not going to claim that the Astros have an amazing outfield. While it's not spectacular, it's pretty respectable.

 

Taveras .291/.324/.341

Pierre .276/.326/.354

 

Statistically, Pierre and Taveras were pretty much equal at the plate last year. Pierre's had better years so he could improve. Taveras as a rookie got his feet wet so he could improve as well. He needs to get on base at a better clip. Seeing as though he skipped AAA and in his 409 ABs in AA his OBP was .402, I expect he'll make some improvements. He's a very good centerfielder with a great arm.

 

Wilson .261/.329/.443

Jones .249/.319/.438

 

Again, not a huge difference statistically last year. Wilson's knees are a concern but if he can stay healthy. He and Jones should be equals at the plate.

 

I'm not going to do a statistical comparison of Murton and Lane. Murton's stats over 140 ABs as a rookie don't translate to a full season. I haven't seen the guy play but seeming as though he spent all of 2004 in A ball hitting 13 HRs in 460 ABs, I'm a little skeptical that he can hit anywhere near what he did last year for the Cubs.

 

Anyway, my point is not that my player is better than your player. My point is that for Cubs' fans to be dogging on the Astros OF is, how do you say...Pot meet Kettle.

 

As far as the bullpen goes, Qualls and Wheeler are EXCELLENT relievers. The Astros have so much faith in Qualls that Lidge almost was traded to Baltimore. Rumor has it if the Astros can get a quality bat, he's the bait. The rest of the bullpen is nothing special: Two decent lefties in Miller and Gallo and a veteran righy in Springer. The Astros bullpen should be excellent again. Other than a couple of monumental homers given up by Lidge, the Astros pen was fantastic in the playoffs.

 

My biggest concern is that one of the young starters needs to step it up, especially if Roger doesn't come back. I'm also not convinced that Ensberg can keep up his allstar production. In short, the bullpen is really solid, the outfield is respectable, the offense is mediocre and the bottom of the rotation could pretty bad.

[CheeseHead Cubs Fan]

I know the Brewers have some good talent but I would be shocked if they won 90. I'm not sure how many people outside of Illinios and Wisconsin are calling the Brewers "overrated".

 

Most of the assessments on the Astros in this thread have been fair. Most.

 

Astros- At this point you cannot expect Ensberg to hit the way he did last year. The outfield is the worst in the division(now that berkman is heading to first) and the relief pitching behind lidge is average.

 

I'm not going to claim that the Astros have an amazing outfield. While it's not spectacular, it's pretty respectable.

 

Taveras .291/.324/.341

Pierre .276/.326/.354

 

Statistically, Pierre and Taveras were pretty much equal at the plate last year. Pierre's had better years so he could improve. Taveras as a rookie got his feet wet so he could improve as well. He needs to get on base at a better clip. Seeing as though he skipped AAA and in his 409 ABs in AA his OBP was .402, I expect he'll make some improvements. He's a very good centerfielder with a great arm.

 

Wilson .261/.329/.443

Jones .249/.319/.438

 

Again, not a huge difference statistically last year. Wilson's knees are a concern but if he can stay healthy. He and Jones should be equals at the plate.

 

I'm not going to do a statistical comparison of Murton and Lane. Murton's stats over 140 ABs as a rookie don't translate to a full season. I haven't seen the guy play but seeming as though he spent all of 2004 in A ball hitting 13 HRs in 460 ABs, I'm a little skeptical that he can hit anywhere near what he did last year for the Cubs.

 

Anyway, my point is not that my player is better than your player. My point is that for Cubs' fans to be dogging on the Astros OF is, how do you say...Pot meet Kettle.

 

As far as the bullpen goes, Qualls and Wheeler are EXCELLENT relievers. The Astros have so much faith in Qualls that Lidge almost was traded to Baltimore. Rumor has it if the Astros can get a quality bat, he's the bait. The rest of the bullpen is nothing special: Two decent lefties in Miller and Gallo and a veteran righy in Springer. The Astros bullpen should be excellent again. Other than a couple of monumental homers given up by Lidge, the Astros pen was fantastic in the playoffs.

 

My biggest concern is that one of the young starters needs to step it up, especially if Roger doesn't come back. I'm also not convinced that Ensberg can keep up his allstar production. In short, the bullpen is really solid, the outfield is respectable, the offense is mediocre and the bottom of the rotation could pretty bad.

 

Nice post, until the Astros and Cardinals begin to show signs of weakness, they are the teams that concern me, not the Brewers!

[treebird]

the cubs outfield is horrible, if you compare your outfield to the cubs outfield and you think they are similar, that means your outfield is horrible too.