Derrek Lee in 2006

[PieOnMyHands]

First, if you don't know, I am a Cards fan, so keep than in mind.

 

I'm hoping the guy has a significant drop-off in production. I'm not trying to troll, though, I just want to state my case and hear what you guys think. Here are a few reasons why I feel he'll come through in my hopes.

 

 

His Power

- His SLG% last year was in the top 75 all time for a single season. (it was actually 76th, but top 75 sounded better). Coming into last year, I did not personally consider Derrek Lee an elite power hitter.

- His SLG% last year was 161 "points" higher than his career average. At .662, it was 154 points higher than his career high.

- He hit 14 more home runs than he had in any other season.

 

 

His Average

- Last year Derrek Lee hit .335. His previous high was .282; that's a 53 point jump.

- Last season was 59 points higher than his career average.

- His 199 hits were a 31-hit increase over his personal high.

 

 

Patience

- Derrek Lee walked 85 times last year. His 162-game average for walks is 72 BB. While it looks like his patience may have increased, when you factor in the 23 IBB, it doesn't really appear that way.

- In his 162-game average, he strikes out right around 136 times a year. If you throw out his 164-strikeout 2002 (which seems to be abnormally high), his average is closer to 129 K. Did 20 strikeouts make -that- much of a difference?

 

 

All Around

- Before last season, his highest OPS was .887. Last year's 1.080 was nearly 200 points above that.

- His career OPS, .864, was also dwarfed by last season.

 

 

Comparison

Lee's year reminded me a lot like what Rolen did two years ago. Look at this comparison:

 

---Career Stats---
AVG     OBP    SLG    OPS     PLAYER
.276 	.363 	.501 	.864      Lee
.284 	.375 	.515 	.890      Rolen

---"Breakout" Year---
AVG     OBP    SLG    OPS     PLAYER
.335 	.418 	.662 	1.080    Lee
.314 	.409 	.598 	1.007    Rolen

 ::: Increases in career averages during "Career Year"::: 
 AVG     OBP    SLG    OPS     PLAYER
 +59 	+55 	+161 	+216 	Lee
 +30 	+34 	+83 	 +117    Rolen

 

If Rolen had his "career year," then what did Lee had? It was almost double the increase in production!

 

 

In Closing

What are you expecting out of Derrek Lee next year? And also, how do you explain this season? Anamoly? A hitter entering his prime? (which still would be hard to believe, given the ridiculous increase...) I know that he "learned" to hit to inside pitches that had given him trouble, but I don't think that was the difference between him being the best hitter in the game or not...

 

I'll predict...

.294/.374/.548 resulting in an OPS of .922

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Maybe I should go to a Cardinals board and explain why I'm hoping for a huge drop off of Chris Carpenter and claim I'm not a troll.

[ManCrushOnNomar]

Maybe I should go to a Cardinals board and explain why I'm hoping for a huge drop off of Chris Carpenter and claim I'm not a troll.

pwn'd

 

What's so hard to understand about him closing up the hole in his swing?He's always been a good hitter, but pitchers would consistantly attack his weakness. He addressed that weakness and corrected it. Until pitchers/scouts find another weakness I see no reason for his numbers to return to his previous averages.

[PieOnMyHands]

Maybe I should go to a Cardinals board and explain why I'm hoping for a huge drop off of Chris Carpenter and claim I'm not a troll.

 

Because he posted a 3.45 ERA in 2004, and then came back in 2005 and had an even better season. Carpenter will not match 2005 next year, but I beleive that he will have 2004-esque numbers. While is 2004 season was unprecedented, his 2005 season was not, so your point does not stand.

 

I guess this topic is comparable: I'm asking if you think that Lee will follow on the path of Chris Carpenter, or if he'll come back down to Earth. (but I don't expect Lee to get signficantly better [which Carp did from '04 to '05].)

 

 

This isn't trolling, I presented my argument and stated why I felt it to be true. If I was trolling I wouldn't waste my time, I would say, "OMFG LEE Sox HE GONNA SUC IN 06."

[PieOnMyHands]

Maybe I should go to a Cardinals board and explain why I'm hoping for a huge drop off of Chris Carpenter and claim I'm not a troll.

 

And you also overlook the fact that the "hoping" statement was tongue-in-cheek. Of course you want Carpenter to do worse and I want Derrek Lee to drop-off. My thoughts are (mostly) biased-free, as I showed with my numbers.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I really think Chris Carpenter is going to experience a decline as well.

 

He had one of the best pitching seasons of the past half century last year. Coming into last season, no one would have thought Carpenter was a CY Young candidate.

 

Last season he posted a 2.83 ERA.

 

The previous seasons, his ERA was 3.46, 5.28, 4.09, 6.26, 4.38,4.37, and 5.09. There's no way he's getting within a run of his last year's ERA.

 

He also threw 241 IP in 2005. He's never done that before. His IP by year- 182, 73, 215, 175, 150, 175, 83.

 

My guess is Carpenter will experience a dead arm and finish with these numbers next season:

 

160 IP, 5-9, 4.67 ERA

 

I really think my predictions have a great chance to be correct and that this post would be well received at both BOTB and Cards Talk.

 

I relied on career stats so my numbers are completely bias free as well.

[PieOnMyHands]

The previous seasons, his ERA was 3.46, 5.28, 4.09, 6.26, 4.38,4.37, and 5.09. There's no way he's getting within a run of his last year's ERA.

 

He also threw 241 IP in 2005. He's never done that before. His IP by year- 182, 73, 215, 175, 150, 175, 83.

 

Thank you for acknowledging his switch to a new, pitching-friendly team, his surgery (and rebuilt arm as a result), his dramatic improvement in K:BB (went from about 4:1 from closer to 2-2.5:1 earler in his career), the implementation of his cut-fastball, etc.

 

I can come up with a lot of things that would suggest why he improved so much.

 

 

My guess is Carpenter will experience a dead arm and finish with these numbers next season:

 

160 IP, 5-9, 4.67 ERA

 

Fair enough, although I think you're wrong.

 

 

I really think my predictions have a great chance to be correct and that this post would be well received at both BOTB and Cards Talk.

 

If I felt that way I would've posted them there.

 

 

I relied on career stats so my numbers are completely bias free as well.

 

But you openly entertained the "Carpenter on Cards Talk" trolling scenario earlier, so you're clearly not telling the truth when you say "bias free."

 

 

By the way, did you even read my post? Or did you just read the opening line and post your retaliation? You realize that my prediction would give him (by a big margin) his second-best season of his career, right?

[UK1679666180]

A prediction of regression is nothing special. Especially, when it dwarfed any season he had ever had before.

 

Some are probably questioning your intentions on making that post, personally, I don't care either way.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

The previous seasons, his ERA was 3.46, 5.28, 4.09, 6.26, 4.38,4.37, and 5.09. There's no way he's getting within a run of his last year's ERA.

 

He also threw 241 IP in 2005. He's never done that before. His IP by year- 182, 73, 215, 175, 150, 175, 83.

 

Thank you for acknowledging his switch to a new, pitching-friendly team, his surgery (and rebuilt arm as a result), his dramatic improvement in K:BB (went from about 4:1 from closer to 2-2.5:1 earler in his career), the implementation of his cut-fastball, etc.

 

I can come up with a lot of things that would suggest why he improved so much.

 

 

My guess is Carpenter will experience a dead arm and finish with these numbers next season:

 

160 IP, 5-9, 4.67 ERA

 

Fair enough, although I think you're wrong.

 

 

I really think my predictions have a great chance to be correct and that this post would be well received at both BOTB and Cards Talk.

 

If I felt that way I would've posted them there.

 

 

I relied on career stats so my numbers are completely bias free as well.

 

But you openly entertained the "Carpenter on Cards Talk" trolling scenario earlier, so you're clearly not telling the truth when you say "bias free."

 

 

By the way, did you even read my post? Or did you just read the opening line and post your retaliation? You realize that my prediction would give him (by a big margin) his second-best season of his career, right?

 

Just as you can suggest a lot of reasons why Carpenter improved, we could suggest Lee is finally comfortabe hitting in Wrigley as opposed to Dolphin Stadium, that he has closed the hole in his swing, and that he figured how to get himself ready for the season. (Previously, Lee had been a slow starter while in 2005 he was hot out of the gate.)

 

Those reasons for Lee maintaining his production are just as reasonable for yours on Carpenter maintaining his.

 

As far as liklihood goes, let me just say I think Lee has as much chance o remain among the best hitters in the NL as Carpenter has being among the best pitchers.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Both will most likely regress and both will most likely still be pretty darn good.

 

:shrug:

Edited December 28, 2005 by CardsFanInChiTown

[PieOnMyHands]

As far as liklihood goes, let me just say I think Lee has as much chance o remain among the best hitters in the NL as Carpenter has being among the best pitchers.

 

I don't think that Carpenter will match his 2005. In fact, I know he won't. 2004 is reasonable, though.

 

I already stated what I thought Lee did. In case you didn't read it the first time (which I don't think you did), I predicted he'd be well above-average.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

As far as liklihood goes, let me just say I think Lee has as much chance o remain among the best hitters in the NL as Carpenter has being among the best pitchers.

 

I don't think that Carpenter will match his 2005. In fact, I know he won't. 2004 is reasonable, though.

 

I already stated what I thought Lee did. In case you didn't read it the first time (which I don't think you did), I predicted he'd be well above-average.

 

I read it. Like I said, I think the amount of regression from both will be about the same.

[UK1679666180]

As far as liklihood goes, let me just say I think Lee has as much chance o remain among the best hitters in the NL as Carpenter has being among the best pitchers.

 

I don't think that Carpenter will match his 2005. In fact, I know he won't. 2004 is reasonable, though.

 

I already stated what I thought Lee did. In case you didn't read it the first time (which I don't think you did), I predicted he'd be well above-average.

 

I read it. Like I said, I think the amount of regression from both will be about the same.

 

Honestly, I think Carpenter will regress more.

 

His Opp. OPS was .622 last year, if you set the avg. OPS at .750, his OPS was 17% better than the avg. OPS. If you were to say he was only 15% better, it would put his OPS at .638.

 

Lee's OPS was at 1.060 as his OPS was 30% than the avg. OPS, cut that improvement down to 15% and his OPS is down to .883.

 

Personally, I think it more likely that Carpenter reaches that 15% while Lee will likely have it higher than the 15%.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Trade Lee.

[MPrior]

So Lee is likely to regress - it would be hard for anyone not to regress from a season like that. I think, though, that he will definitely not regress to his career averages. I expect him to put up a .900+ OPS next season, which is pretty much in line with what you said, PoMH.

[Chris]

Trade Lee.

 

Now.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Trade Lee.

 

Now.

 

I'd rather trade Lee for Tejada than Prior for Tejada.

[SeldomSeen]

Trade Lee.

 

Now.

 

I'd rather trade Lee for Tejada than Prior for Tejada.

 

I'd rather assess our needs more accurately at the beginning of the offseason, and not trade either.:headache:

[BigbadB]

Trade Lee.

 

Now.

 

I'd rather trade Lee for Tejada than Prior for Tejada.

 

I'd rather assess our needs more accurately at the beginning of the offseason, and not trade either.:headache:

 

=D>

[Balsa]

Trade Lee.

 

Now.

 

I'd rather trade Lee for Tejada than Prior for Tejada.

 

I agree.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Both will most likely regress and both will most likely still be pretty darn good.

 

:shrug:

 

Agreed with the Cards fan.

 

For the original poster, remeber that Lee was posting that almost .900 OPS in 2003 in one of the largest pitchers parks in baseball. When he came over to the Cubs I was with many people that Lee could easily see a big jump in HRs, and see his average go up a bit too.

 

Not to say that I expect .335/.418/.662 or whatever, but I could definitely see him putting up a .290-.300/.390/.580 kind of year.

 

It's a big dropoff which I guess was your point. But its still damn good production. Derrek Lee is the least of our problems heading into 2006.

[Butterscup1679666578]

Trade Lee.

 

No way dude, Lee is a gold glove winner. Even if his offense declines, he's still got the D that we need to be a World Series contender.

[goonys evil twin]

I don't think Lee will come all that close to his 2005 numbers, but I think he'll be above his career mark. Maybe somewhere around a 950 OPS.

[CuseCubFan69]

I see Lee with 35 HR's 290 average and 104 RBI's. 91 RBI's if Perez is in the 2 slot.

[wastra]

There are a lot of different factors to weigh here.

 

1. His numbers were far better than his career averages.

 

2. He has a different stance and swing now. This could mean that he's closed holes/increased vision/etc. Possibly, though, he just hit a long hot streak.

 

3. He's batting higheri n the order. He hit 6th in Florida most of the time, with the bottom of hte order behind him. At Chicago, he's had Ramirez who, before the season, was talked about by many as an MVP candidate.

 

4. He didn't have his normal 3-4-week slump to start the season. If you take the 3 or 4 worst weeks from most good players' seasons and replace them with really great weeks, their numbers start looking REAL good.

 

So IMO, Lee should be better than his career numbers had been but he'll have a hard time duplicating 2005. He's maturing (still fairly young, mind you) and seems to have really grasped onto the new approach at the plate. He actually has the team's best hitter BEHIND him now in chicago unlike Florida. He's in a more hitter-friendly park than Florida was. He's now had two full seasons to adjust to the day games and colder weather.

 

Ultimately, he's simply progressed. I don't know if that first-half of 2005 is easily repeatable or not, though I'll admit that it will be tough, but either way, he was a different hitter in '05 than before, and the outside factors are in his favor for being better than he was in Florida.