Howry signs with Cubs (yes, it's official)

[Mark Priors Calves]

Here's hoping Hendry is now setting his sights on improving RF and helping stabilize CF. I'm really hoping there's an expanded payroll with all this money being spent on the bullpen, but I get that feeling the Cubs will be going on the cheap to help their OF.

[Gunned]

Anyway, regarding the significance of strikeout rate...

 

Individual strikeout rate vs ERA, 1993-2002

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/images/2617_01.gif

Source: Baseball Prospectus

 

That's called correlation. Negative correlation, actually. Essentially, what that graph shows is that pitchers with lower ERAs on average strikeout more batters. It's not a co-incidence. More strikeouts mean fewer balls in play. Fewer balls in play mean fewer hits allowed. And fewer hits allowed mean fewer runs allowed. A strikeout is an out every single time. A ball in play, well, it could go just past the dive of your shortstop with lousy range.

 

So why doesn't that hold true for hitters? Prospectus are the same people who believe that a strikeout for a hitter is the same as any other out, right?

 

I'm not trying to be contrarian ... I just want to know what the difference is.

[Win for Santo]

21 pages, huh? I wonder how many pages there will be if Hendry actually signs Howry to the rumored 3-year deal.

 

Has there been anything new about the deal today?[/quote]

 

 

Bruce Levine has been reporting the Cubs are close to a 4 yr/$12 million deal with Howry. Also, ESPN insider headline is stating the Cubs may be close to adding a set up man (assume it's Howry). Sorry no access to the Insider article (too cheap).

 

Anyone with ESPN insider access please post the article.

 

I just looked at the Insider blurb...it just references today's Chicago Tribune article ("the Cubs may be close to landing righty setup man Bobby Howry, The Chicago Tribune reports."

 

This is what I pay for? The online version of the Tribune is free!

[JWCUB]

Per Bruce Levine ESPN 1000 the deal for Howry is done pending physical next week. 3 year $12mm. Will be announced next week. Now lets get some bats.

 

Exactly.

 

And now that it sems that the signing will be announced, does anyone care to wager on how many pages this thread will top off at? Shall we set the over/under at 51?

 

I say under. We can move on to bigger and better things. No more speculation about will he sign, or won't he. He is ours pending the physical :)

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

If this signing happens, we have the following guaranteed in the bullpen:

 

Dempster, Williamson, Howry, and Eyre. (This is with Rusch in the rotation.)

 

If we go with a seven man pen, which I believe is a bad idea, we have three spots for the following candidates:

Ohman, Wuertz, Novoa, Williams, Hill, Wellemeyer, JVB, Mitre and Koronka. A trade of at least one, if not two or three of those guys, must be in the works. Mitre, Ohman, and Wellemeyer are all out of options. Hill and Williams could be used as starters at AAA however.

 

My guess is Ohman, Wuertz and Novoa round out the pen. Hill is likely at AAA and Welly and Mitre and likeluy Williams are on the trade block.

[The Voice of Reason]

Per Bruce Levine ESPN 1000 the deal for Howry is done pending physical next week. 3 year $12mm. Will be announced next week. Now lets get some bats.

 

Hmm. $6m/yr locked up in 2 relievers?

Whatever, I was resigned to this a couple days ago. If Hendry signs/trades for an impact OF, all will be forgiven, in my eyes, anyway.

 

Lot of $ but heading into spring training you gotta like Eyre, Howry and Dempster a lot better that Remlinger, Hawkins and Borowski.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Anyway, regarding the significance of strikeout rate...

 

Individual strikeout rate vs ERA, 1993-2002

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/images/2617_01.gif

Source: Baseball Prospectus

 

That's called correlation. Negative correlation, actually. Essentially, what that graph shows is that pitchers with lower ERAs on average strikeout more batters. It's not a co-incidence. More strikeouts mean fewer balls in play. Fewer balls in play mean fewer hits allowed. And fewer hits allowed mean fewer runs allowed. A strikeout is an out every single time. A ball in play, well, it could go just past the dive of your shortstop with lousy range.

 

So why doesn't that hold true for hitters? Prospectus are the same people who believe that a strikeout for a hitter is the same as any other out, right?

 

I'm not trying to be contrarian ... I just want to know what the difference is.

 

Like I said earlier in the thread, the big benefit of K's is that the pitcher has control over what happens. When the ball is put in play, he has much much less control. Therefore, the pitcher will be better off the more control he has, or the more K's he gets. In the case of the batter, whether or not he puts the ball in play, he's the one making the result. The detriment to K'ing a lot is that it cuts down on the amount of balls in play, and makes it more difficult to achieve a higher batting average. However, that doesn't preclude a player from being productive. A batter that K's a lot and still produces at a high rate isn't less productive than one with the same numbers and lower K's(aside from the marginal detriment of productive outs).

[USSoccer]

Per Bruce Levine ESPN 1000 the deal for Howry is done pending physical next week. 3 year $12mm. Will be announced next week. Now lets get some bats.

 

Hmm. $6m/yr locked up in 2 relievers?

Whatever, I was resigned to this a couple days ago. If Hendry signs/trades for an impact OF, all will be forgiven, in my eyes, anyway.

 

Lot of $ but heading into spring training you gotta like Eyre, Howry and Dempster a lot better that Remlinger, Hawkins and Borowski.

 

Well, yeah, that pretty much goes without saying. But I still think a bullpen is the last place you want to spend money long term.

[SeldomSeen]

Now that it appears to be done, I'm coming around on these signings. Say what you will about the $$$, Hendry is addressing needs and it is still really early. I wonder if there were specific time-frame goals set, such as Thanksgiving, winter meetings, etc. I'd imagine there is a feeling of momentum going into the winter meetings being able to focus on leadoff and OF at this point. I think the tone was set by getting Dempster done early and that has carried over to the rest of the bullpen. As long as the $ given out so far doesn't restrict the acquisition of a big bat I think we all may be pretty pleased with this offseason in the end.

 

No JJ, JB, or JE comments please. I'm trying to be positive.

Edited November 23, 2005 by SeldomSeen

[Guest]

Anyway, regarding the significance of strikeout rate...

 

Individual strikeout rate vs ERA, 1993-2002

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/images/2617_01.gif

Source: Baseball Prospectus

 

That's called correlation. Negative correlation, actually. Essentially, what that graph shows is that pitchers with lower ERAs on average strikeout more batters. It's not a co-incidence. More strikeouts mean fewer balls in play. Fewer balls in play mean fewer hits allowed. And fewer hits allowed mean fewer runs allowed. A strikeout is an out every single time. A ball in play, well, it could go just past the dive of your shortstop with lousy range.

 

So why doesn't that hold true for hitters? Prospectus are the same people who believe that a strikeout for a hitter is the same as any other out, right?

 

I'm not trying to be contrarian ... I just want to know what the difference is.

The big difference is that a hitter has control over many variables that can offset a high K rate; namely take some walks and hit for power. (And it's not uncommon for the same traits that lead to a lot of strikeouts to also lead to a lot of walks and HR.) It's true that a hitter who Ks alot will tend to have a lower batting average, but if he walks enough to keep a respectable OBP and/or has enough power to maintain a high SLG, then the low AVG doesn't really matter that much.

 

Pitchers, on the other hand, don't have a lot of influence over balls in play -- once a hitter makes contact the play is pretty much out of the hurler's control. Strikeouts, therefore, about the only significant positive contribution they can make to the defense. A pitcher can be successful without a high K rate, but he needs to have really good control and be able to keep the ball in the park to do so.

[KingCubsFan]

If this signing happens, we have the following guaranteed in the bullpen:

 

Dempster, Williamson, Howry, and Eyre. (This is with Rusch in the rotation.)

I think Ohman is guaranteed a spot as well. At Eyre's press conference, Hendry talked about how the left side of the bullpen will be strong now with both Ohman and Eyre.

Also, I don't know if this has been posted anywhere else, but both Hendry and Baker were on WGN 720 last night. Baker basically confirmed that Howry will be signed by early next week. Hendry didn't mention Howry by name, but he said he hoped something would be done by early next week as well.

[goonys evil twin]

Now that it appears to be done, I'm coming around on these signings. Say what you will about the $$$, Hendry is addressing needs and it is still really early.

 

I don't mean to suggest you're wrong. But remember what happened in 2004 and 2005 during the seasons. A lot of people spent a lot of time talking about how early it was. I don't think it's really early anymore. I don't think it's even somewhat early. Now is the time to make your moves. Other teams are making big trades. In three weeks it'll be late.

[JWCUB]

Now that it appears to be done, I'm coming around on these signings. Say what you will about the $$$, Hendry is addressing needs and it is still really early. I wonder there were specific time-frame goals set, such as Thanksgiving, winter meetings, etc. I'd imagine there is a feeling of momentum going into the winter meetings being able to focus on leadoff and OF at this point. I think the tone was set by getting Dempster done early and that has carried over to the rest of the bullpen. As long as the $ given out so far doesn't restrict the acquisition of a big bat I think we all may be pretty pleased with this offseason in the end.

 

No JJ, JB, or JE comments please. I'm trying to be positive.

 

I agree Seldom. Hendry has said this fall that this will be a winter of trades. Hendry seems to have a plan, and is aggressivly acting on it. I think the Sox sucess has Hendry on a mission. IMO I think we will aquired 1, maybe 2 power bats via trade, and either a starter or another big bat through FA. I personally want Manny, but.......

[SeldomSeen]

So you're saying I'm wrong.:lol:

 

"Man, it gets late early around here."

[Guest]

If this signing happens, we have the following guaranteed in the bullpen:

 

Dempster, Williamson, Howry, and Eyre. (This is with Rusch in the rotation.)

 

If we go with a seven man pen, which I believe is a bad idea, we have three spots for the following candidates:

Ohman, Wuertz, Novoa, Williams, Hill, Wellemeyer, JVB, Mitre and Koronka. A trade of at least one, if not two or three of those guys, must be in the works. Mitre, Ohman, and Wellemeyer are all out of options. Hill and Williams could be used as starters at AAA however.

 

My guess is Ohman, Wuertz and Novoa round out the pen. Hill is likely at AAA and Welly and Mitre and likeluy Williams are on the trade block.

Was Williams added to SF's 40-man in 2002 or 2003? If it was 2003 he still has an option to burn, but if it was in 2002 he'd be out of options, as well.

[goonys evil twin]

So you're saying I'm wrong.:lol:

 

"Man, it gets late early around here."

 

Yeah, I know that sounded weird. My point is that I agree with you to an extent. But you can go from early to late really quickly in the hot stove.

[CuseCubFan69]

IMO Hendry is paying a lot for the pen in order to move a lot of young pitching in a trade(s). I'm hoping among hope that he gets 2 impact bats.

[SeldomSeen]

So you're saying I'm wrong.:lol:

 

"Man, it gets late early around here."

 

Yeah, I know that sounded weird. My point is that I agree with you to an extent. But you can go from early to late really quickly in the hot stove.

Oh, I agree. I'm just glad to see something resembling a plan being worked. The big bats are still there outside of Delgado, but he wouldn't fill a need anyway.

[YearofDaCubs]

Per Bruce Levine ESPN 1000 the deal for Howry is done pending physical next week. 3 year $12mm. Will be announced next week. Now lets get some bats.

 

Hmm. $6m/yr locked up in 2 relievers?

 

Whatever, I was resigned to this a couple days ago. If Hendry signs/trades for an impact OF, all will be forgiven, in my eyes, anyway.

Yeah, that and a leadoff hitter, the removal of Macias and all will be forgiven.

[JWCUB]

IMO Hendry is paying a lot for the pen in order to move a lot of young pitching in a trade(s). I'm hoping among hope that he gets 2 impact bats.

 

Manny, Huff, Dunn, Kearns?????

[Schwarber Fan]

Someone on prosportsdaily is saying that Levine announced it 3 yrs at 12 million.

 

http://www.prosportsdaily.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28475

 

They r also saying it can't be announced till after the holiday

 

According to Bruce Levine on am1000, Cubs have signed Howry- 3 years for 12 mil.

it is official pending a physical-it should be announced next week because of the holiday the physical won't be until the weekend

[Schwarber Fan]

srry JWCubs, I didn't see ur post

[Jehrico]

If this signing happens, we have the following guaranteed in the bullpen:

 

Dempster, Williamson, Howry, and Eyre. (This is with Rusch in the rotation.)

 

If we go with a seven man pen, which I believe is a bad idea, we have three spots for the following candidates:

Ohman, Wuertz, Novoa, Williams, Hill, Wellemeyer, JVB, Mitre and Koronka. A trade of at least one, if not two or three of those guys, must be in the works. Mitre, Ohman, and Wellemeyer are all out of options. Hill and Williams could be used as starters at AAA however.

 

My guess is Ohman, Wuertz and Novoa round out the pen. Hill is likely at AAA and Welly and Mitre and likeluy Williams are on the trade block.

Don't forget Bartosh, who I don't think has a chance at making the team. He's likely trade bait as well, don't know if he has any options left. I agree on Ohman and Wuertz. I think Novoa has a fine future ahead of him as a middle reliever, but I'm not so sure he's going to be in the pen this year. I'd give him a 50/50 chance. I think Mitre, Welly, and Bartosh are certainly gone via trade or ???. Koronka and Hill likely will be gone, JVB back in AAA to close.

[maandig]

The Sun-Times carried an article today reporting on Baker's comments regarding Howry last night:

 

''We're in the progress of talking to Bobby, and hopefully we can get something done by next week,'' Cubs manager Dusty Baker told WGN-AM (720) on Tuesday.

 

But Howry, who was paid $900,000 last season, is coveted by a number of teams. He is expected to seek a reported three-year deal worth some $10.5 million to $12 million, according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer.

 

http://www.suntimes.com/output/cubs/cst-spt-cub23.html#

[Mark Priors Calves]

I'd like to see Hendry turning some of these young arms, who seemingly are out of 25 man roster spots, into offensive production. It seems the bullpen will really be an assett to this team, hopefully the offense can produce enough runs to have to hold a lead.