Howry signs with Cubs (yes, it's official)

[Tim]

lol - If you look at the stats of the AL playoff teams in other years it tells a different story. So what?

 

Baseball is a simple game. You have to score more than the other team. Scoring runs = 50%, preventing runs = 50%. Preventing runs is split between pitching and defense. Pitching is split between starting (majority) and bullpen (minority). The bullpen is split between 6-7 guys (under Dusty).

 

Spending $3M on a single reliever isn't the answer, either.

 

The $10M on the OF will help a heck of a lot more.

 

I'm not neccessarily saying signing these relievers is a good thing. And I do view an impact RF as a necessity.

 

But if you are gonna take away the importance of each bullpen by spreading his worth over the other 5-6 guys in the pen, you should do the same for RF.

 

hitting is 1/2, one player contributes 1/8 of that 1/2 or 1/16 to the team total. BP on the same type of rating would come out to about 1/36, depending on how much importance you place on the value of defense vs. pitching and starters vs. relievers.

 

Technically a RF also adds to run prevention, but lets be honest we aren't looking for that. If you really wanna add in defense their importance is maybe 1/12.

 

So a guy who contributes 1/12 to the team contributes 3times as much as the guy who contributes 1/36. So their salary should be 3 times as much. 3mil reliever x 3= 9mil RF.

 

Now actually using such a system to actually evaluate how much to give players is ridiculous. I think you would agree. Plus it would be much more complicated.

 

EDIT- kinda unrelated. But it helps the reading if you cut out quotes that occured 5 pages ago. It is usually pretty sufficent to have just the last thing you are quoting shown. It gets pretty annoying to scroll through all that. So for courtesy of poster trying to read, I request that everyone tries to do so. (At another site I visit, they automatically snip quotes. Any chance you could set something like that up Tim?)

Change out Burnitz' offense in 2005 for Giles and the Cubs improve from #20 in offense to close to the top 10.

 

Change out Ohman for Eyre in 2005 and the Cubs improve from #19 in bullpen ERA to --maybe-- #18 or so.

 

The difference in the situations for RF and the pen is that we have capable guys in place in the pen. We have an enormous gaping hole of suckage in RF.

[nolanwood]

I'm guessig by the way things go around here we're gonna hit 15-20 pages before we find out that Howry isnt even coming to the northside :?

 

And yes, Tim, I would have to agree we do have an enormous gaping hole of suckage in RF - CF too, imo.

Edited November 22, 2005 by nolanwood

[Tim]

I'm guessig by the way things go around here we're gonna hit 15-20 pages before we find out that Howry isnt even coming to the northside :?

I'd do a jig, but of the two, I'd rather have Howry than Eyre.

[WrigleyField 22]

I'm guessig by the way things go around here we're gonna hit 15-20 pages before we find out that Howry isnt even coming to the northside :?

 

And yes, Tim, I would have to agree we do have an enormous gaping hole of suckage in RF - CF too, imo.

 

We did have two separate threads on consecutive days about Dunn coming to the Cubs.

[sethuel1]

I'm guessig by the way things go around here we're gonna hit 15-20 pages before we find out that Howry isnt even coming to the northside :?

 

And yes, Tim, I would have to agree we do have an enormous gaping hole of suckage in RF - CF too, imo.

 

We did have two separate threads on consecutive days about Dunn coming to the Cubs.

 

Dunn's coming to the Cubs?

 

/goes off to make a Dunn thread

[nolanwood]

I'm guessig by the way things go around here we're gonna hit 15-20 pages before we find out that Howry isnt even coming to the northside :?

 

And yes, Tim, I would have to agree we do have an enormous gaping hole of suckage in RF - CF too, imo.

 

We did have two separate threads on consecutive days about Dunn coming to the Cubs.

 

That was outta control too - I just knew Dunn was coming back to St Louis with us....oh, what a MAJOR let down that was.

Edited November 22, 2005 by nolanwood

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I'm guessig by the way things go around here we're gonna hit 15-20 pages before we find out that Howry isnt even coming to the northside :?

 

And yes, Tim, I would have to agree we do have an enormous gaping hole of suckage in RF - CF too, imo.

 

Given Eyre got an 8-page thread when he was close to signing and then a 30-pager when he did sign, I think your guess is a good one.

[Tim]

I'm guessig by the way things go around here we're gonna hit 15-20 pages before we find out that Howry isnt even coming to the northside :?

 

And yes, Tim, I would have to agree we do have an enormous gaping hole of suckage in RF - CF too, imo.

 

Given Eyre got an 8-page thread when he was close to signing and then a 30-pager when he did sign, I think your guess is a good one.

I'm trying to make up for lost time. :jocolor:

[frostwyrm]

lol - If you look at the stats of the AL playoff teams in other years it tells a different story. So what?

 

Baseball is a simple game. You have to score more than the other team. Scoring runs = 50%, preventing runs = 50%. Preventing runs is split between pitching and defense. Pitching is split between starting (majority) and bullpen (minority). The bullpen is split between 6-7 guys (under Dusty).

 

Spending $3M on a single reliever isn't the answer, either.

 

The $10M on the OF will help a heck of a lot more.

 

I'm not neccessarily saying signing these relievers is a good thing. And I do view an impact RF as a necessity.

 

But if you are gonna take away the importance of each bullpen by spreading his worth over the other 5-6 guys in the pen, you should do the same for RF.

 

hitting is 1/2, one player contributes 1/8 of that 1/2 or 1/16 to the team total. BP on the same type of rating would come out to about 1/36, depending on how much importance you place on the value of defense vs. pitching and starters vs. relievers.

 

Technically a RF also adds to run prevention, but lets be honest we aren't looking for that. If you really wanna add in defense their importance is maybe 1/12.

 

So a guy who contributes 1/12 to the team contributes 3times as much as the guy who contributes 1/36. So their salary should be 3 times as much. 3mil reliever x 3= 9mil RF.

 

Now actually using such a system to actually evaluate how much to give players is ridiculous. I think you would agree. Plus it would be much more complicated.

 

Another way of looking at it: preventing runs is 50% of the game, and is comprised of roughly 85% pitching and 15% defense, so pitching is 42.5% of the game. In 2005 Cubs relievers pitched 31% of the total innings, so their contibution to the overall team effort was 31% of 42.5%, which is 13.175%, and this is spread over a bullpen of 6-7 guys. A marginal improvement of the bullpen's 13-odd percentage contribution to the overall team effort is not worth the $7.7M that Eyre/Howry will make in 2006. They are not difference-makers except in terms of the salary they waste.

[Tim]

It's been real, but my subcontractors showed up.

 

Time to get back to work. :(

[WrigleyField 22]

Change out Burnitz' offense in 2005 for Giles and the Cubs improve from #20 in offense to close to the top 10.

 

Change out Ohman for Eyre in 2005 and the Cubs improve from #19 in bullpen ERA to --maybe-- #18 or so.

 

The difference in the situations for RF and the pen is that we have capable guys in place in the pen. We have an enormous gaping hole of suckage in RF.

 

Yes We do suck at RF. I agree. We do need to upgrade it.

Just curious, what did you do to calculate the change in offense/ERA rank? Just a guess?

 

You can crunch numbers to figure out why somebody is more important. But sometimes numbers aren't going to tell the whol story. Especially just select numbers. You could manipulate numbers to make any point you want. Theres gotta be some element of gut when putting a team together. A whole plan of going with your gut would be bad, but so it strictly looking at numbers/formulas/etc

[CubsWin]

Now you're putting words in my mouth with the HR rate, now. I said he was well below his career norm (I resevered the word ridiculous for the BABIP rates of Howry and Eyre in 2005). And it was well below that rate. Keep in mind, he's pitching at SBC, too.

Certainly not my intention. Anything I misquoted you on I take back. (Now if only others would do the same around here.)

 

Saying Eyre is well below his career norm in HRs allowed last season may be an accurate statement, but how relevant is it? Not very.

 

Again, if you have the stats to show that he isn't capable of consistently holding hitters in the low .200s, what are they?

 

I agree with you that Hendry is spending a lot on players that aren't great, but I think you are off in comparing Eyre to Ohman. Why, was Eyre signed as Ohman's replacement? No. Is there only a need for 2 or 3 good arms in a pen? Eyre was signed as an improvement over Novoa. Would Dempster, Ohman, Wuertz and Williamson be enough? Williamson is still a bit of a question mark. If Hendry went to battle with that pen, he would get strung up on this board.

 

He is adding quality depth to the bullpen. And this is apparently what it costs. It is completely valid to say he shouldn't spend the money on Eyre, but no one has suggested a way for him to get someone just as good if not better for less.

[WrigleyField 22]

Would any of you feel any different about signing guys like Howry/Eyre if it meant we were able to package some of out other arms for contributions to say CF?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Would any of you feel any different about signing guys like Howry/Eyre if it meant we were able to package some of out other arms for contributions to say CF?

 

No, middle relievers for pricey 3 year deals are bad ideas. Especially ones like Eyre who don't have any sustained success.

 

As an aside, does anyone know what happened to Howry's K's this year?

[CubsWin]

Would any of you feel any different about signing guys like Howry/Eyre if it meant we were able to package some of out other arms for contributions to say CF?

 

No, middle relievers for pricey 3 year deals are bad ideas. Especially ones like Eyre who don't have any sustained success.

 

As an aside, does anyone know what happened to Howry's K's this year?

Three years of sustained success isn't enough?

 

Can't anyone look beyond the one stat of ERA in '04 to gain a more complete picture of Eyre?

[CubsWin]

Would any of you feel any different about signing guys like Howry/Eyre if it meant we were able to package some of out other arms for contributions to say CF?

 

No, middle relievers for pricey 3 year deals are bad ideas. Especially ones like Eyre who don't have any sustained success.

 

As an aside, does anyone know what happened to Howry's K's this year?

Look, I agree that 3-years and 3.75 mill is a lot more than any of us wanted to spend. But you certainly don't think that going to battle with a pen of Dempster, Ohman, Wuertz and the question mark of Williamson would be enough, do you?

 

Assuming you don't and you agree with the need to improve the bullpen, who would you have gotten instead of Eyre who would have been just as good but much cheaper?

[fearthecubs]

Would any of you feel any different about signing guys like Howry/Eyre if it meant we were able to package some of out other arms for contributions to say CF?

 

No, middle relievers for pricey 3 year deals are bad ideas. Especially ones like Eyre who don't have any sustained success.

 

As an aside, does anyone know what happened to Howry's K's this year?

Three years of sustained success isn't enough?

 

Can't anyone look beyond the one stat of ERA in '04 to gain a more complete picture of Eyre?

 

I agree with you on quite a few things you've put into this thread CW, including the ridiculous sarcasm exhibited by a lot of people here. Looking at one year of stats is insane. Patterson hit 300 with 15 jacks and some steals or whatever before he tore his ACL, everyone thought he'd be great the next year, then he hits 260 with a million K's and gets sent to AAA the next year. Like I said, if not Eyre, who? It was printed EVERYWHERE that the Yanks wanted Eyre too, why is it so crazy to think we HAD to pay that much? Instead of complaining you should be thrilled the Tribune is spending some cheese.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

If we're going to throw money at a set-up man, why not throw it at Dotel? Sure he's coming back from TJS, but he actually was dominating when he was healthy.

[fearthecubs]

If we're going to throw money at a set-up man, why not throw it at Dotel? Sure he's coming back from TJS, but he actually was dominating when he was healthy.

 

Obviously Dotel is going to command more money than Eyre, so wouldn't people complain even more? What's the difference? Dotel hasn't shown me anything that Novoa cant do - and I absolutely guarantee you thats how the Cubs view him.

Edited November 22, 2005 by fearthecubs

[sethuel1]

Would any of you feel any different about signing guys like Howry/Eyre if it meant we were able to package some of out other arms for contributions to say CF?

 

No, middle relievers for pricey 3 year deals are bad ideas. Especially ones like Eyre who don't have any sustained success.

 

As an aside, does anyone know what happened to Howry's K's this year?

Three years of sustained success isn't enough?

 

Can't anyone look beyond the one stat of ERA in '04 to gain a more complete picture of Eyre?

 

 

I agree with you on quite a few things you've put into this thread CW, including the ridiculous sarcasm exhibited by a lot of people here. Looking at one year of stats is insane. Patterson hit 300 with 15 jacks and some steals or whatever before he tore his ACL, everyone thought he'd be great the next year, then he hits 260 with a million K's and gets sent to AAA the next year. Like I said, if not Eyre, who? It was printed EVERYWHERE that the Yanks wanted Eyre too, why is it so crazy to think we HAD to pay that much? Instead of complaining you should be thrilled the Tribune is spending some cheese.

The Tribune has been spending some cheese for several years now and doesn't have much to show for it. I want them to spend some cheese wisely

[fearthecubs]

Would any of you feel any different about signing guys like Howry/Eyre if it meant we were able to package some of out other arms for contributions to say CF?

 

No, middle relievers for pricey 3 year deals are bad ideas. Especially ones like Eyre who don't have any sustained success.

 

As an aside, does anyone know what happened to Howry's K's this year?

Three years of sustained success isn't enough?

 

Can't anyone look beyond the one stat of ERA in '04 to gain a more complete picture of Eyre?

 

 

I agree with you on quite a few things you've put into this thread CW, including the ridiculous sarcasm exhibited by a lot of people here. Looking at one year of stats is insane. Patterson hit 300 with 15 jacks and some steals or whatever before he tore his ACL, everyone thought he'd be great the next year, then he hits 260 with a million K's and gets sent to AAA the next year. Like I said, if not Eyre, who? It was printed EVERYWHERE that the Yanks wanted Eyre too, why is it so crazy to think we HAD to pay that much? Instead of complaining you should be thrilled the Tribune is spending some cheese.

The Tribune has been spending some cheese for several years now and doesn't have much to show for it. I want them to spend some cheese wisely

 

For about the 800th time, if not Eyre, who?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Would any of you feel any different about signing guys like Howry/Eyre if it meant we were able to package some of out other arms for contributions to say CF?

 

No, middle relievers for pricey 3 year deals are bad ideas. Especially ones like Eyre who don't have any sustained success.

 

As an aside, does anyone know what happened to Howry's K's this year?

Three years of sustained success isn't enough?

 

Can't anyone look beyond the one stat of ERA in '04 to gain a more complete picture of Eyre?

 

Come on. Look through the thread, I've gone to WHIP, K/BB and in previous threads more than that to make my case about Eyre. Eyre in 2005 was great. He had a WHIP near 1, OPS against under 600, 2.5 K/BB, etc. Aside from that, there's not a whole lot to be impressed about IMO. 2003-2004 he was about 1.4 WHIP, near 700 OPS against, K/BB under 2, etc. Those numbers are similar(K/BB, WHIP) or marginally better(OPS against, K/9) than the rest of his career as a reliever, which is far from stellar. Furthermore, and probably most importantly, we gave him three years. Almost 1100 days. The Cubs will play almost 500 games in that span. When Eyre's contract runs out we'll be voting for another president. For a middle reliever that's never had more than one year of production that would be deserving of 3-4 million a year, that's terrible. If we gave Eyre 1 year 3-4 mil, or 1+ an option, I wouldn't be upset, since you're taking the gamble he can sustain it. I may be upset about how much they're paying for a gamble, but ultimately it's not a terrible move. Giving that same gamble 3 guaranteed years when he's 32 years old and you aren't in dire straits for a LH reliever? Unacceptable IMO.

[Sarcastic]

I agree with you on quite a few things you've put into this thread CW, including the ridiculous sarcasm exhibited by a lot of people here. Looking at one year of stats is insane. Patterson hit 300 with 15 jacks and some steals or whatever before he tore his ACL, everyone thought he'd be great the next year, then he hits 260 with a million K's and gets sent to AAA the next year. Like I said, if not Eyre, who? It was printed EVERYWHERE that the Yanks wanted Eyre too, why is it so crazy to think we HAD to pay that much? Instead of complaining you should be thrilled the Tribune is spending some cheese.

 

The thing is, the Cubs didn't have to sign Eyre. They could have let the Yankees pay him $11,000,000 over 3 years if they liked. There are other ways to spend the money. If it was a choice between spending the money on Eyre or doing nothing with it for the next three years, I'd choose Eyre, but I think it is reasonable to assume that the Trib was going to spend the money. If they were spending it on something that would really help us a lot, I'd be celebrating.

 

That said, I don't think these signings will crush our season. I expect both pitchers to be reasonably useful over the next three years, and it makes a few more of the young pitchers useful for trading purposes. Hopefully Hendry has something better in mind than giving them away for players to be named later.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Would any of you feel any different about signing guys like Howry/Eyre if it meant we were able to package some of out other arms for contributions to say CF?

 

No, middle relievers for pricey 3 year deals are bad ideas. Especially ones like Eyre who don't have any sustained success.

 

As an aside, does anyone know what happened to Howry's K's this year?

Look, I agree that 3-years and 3.75 mill is a lot more than any of us wanted to spend. But you certainly don't think that going to battle with a pen of Dempster, Ohman, Wuertz and the question mark of Williamson would be enough, do you?

 

Assuming you don't and you agree with the need to improve the bullpen, who would you have gotten instead of Eyre who would have been just as good but much cheaper?

 

Dotel, Howry, and maybe some others I haven't stumbled upon would be good FA's for 1-2 year deals. I've been campaigning for quite a while to make an acquisition via trade. Minnesota, Cleveland, and maybe a few others have overloaded bullpens and are under cash constraints. Romero and Riske are both arby eligible set up men with cheap, capable replacements. Prime trade targets. I'd also target Betancourt from the Cleveland pen, I've advocated trying to get him and Crisp in a deal where we give up a bit of talent. This is another indictment of the Eyre signing. Making it as early as it was, before other options potentially open up.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

If we're going to throw money at a set-up man, why not throw it at Dotel? Sure he's coming back from TJS, but he actually was dominating when he was healthy.

 

Obviously Dotel is going to command more money than Eyre, so wouldn't people complain even more? What's the difference? Dotel hasn't shown me anything that Novoa cant do - and I absolutely guarantee you thats how the Cubs view him.

 

Dotel's recent numbers:

2002: 1.85 ERA, 173 BAA, 10.91 K/9

2003: 2.48 ERA 172 BAA, 10.03 K/9

2004: 3.69 ERA, 217 BAA, 12.87 K/9

2005: 3.52 ERA, 185 BAA, 9.39 K/9

 

If Novoa can do that, we don't need to spend money on Howry.

 

There's nothing in Novoa's numbers that indicate he can be any where near Dotel's level. If the Cubs really view him that way, they're dumber than anyone has already portrayed them.

Edited November 22, 2005 by vance_the_cubs_fan