To Pie Or Not To Pie...

[mg420]

i guess people didnt read the blurb about hendry turning away when other clubs inquire about pie or hill. they aint going anywhere and certainly not both for abreu. a silly trade proposal imo and one that hendry wouldnt consider for a second.

I guess you didn't read that quoteless story very carefully and took the assumptions you made as verifiable fact.

 

Was there a quote in that story from Hendry saying, "I will never trade Pie or Hill for anyone, so any GM out there that wants them shouldn't bother asking"? No.

 

Did the author of the aritcle say that Hendry wouldn't trade Pie or Hill period, that they are completely untouchable? No.

 

All the author wrote was that Hendry had been turning trades away that were asking for Pie. Did you ever consider that maybe who was being offered wasn't good enough to warrant trading away Pie?

 

actually it was pie, hill or murton. regardless, hendry has said in the past that pie was an untouchable and i dont see his performance this year as changing that. not much in the realm baseball trades is verifiable fact anyway and this board is no exception. that said, i would take odds on pie being a cub for a long time to come as hendry does not have a history of trading his top farm prospects.

[1908]

Impressive? Yes. But to count on him as the centerfielder of the future in Chicago? That's a little much for a good 1/2 of a season.

He's only had one good season now? What sources are you using to evaluate Pie?

 

He has value. No question about it. however, I think we overvalue him as our farm system doesn't have many upper tier position players.

He was a top 20 prospect the last time Baseball America did their rankings. I don't see how anything I've said has overvalued him.

[Tim]

If Pie can get us a top caliber proven bat, then I'd trade him. He hasn't shown me he's a can't miss. All he really is now is a prospect with potential. And his K/BB ratio really does bother me. He could very easily be a flop, like so many other top tier Cub offensive prospects in recent years.

 

If the deal was right for Abreu, I'd do it and not think twice about it.

 

Don't forget Pie is 20 years old and expected to be playing regularly in the majors at 21. I don't know what you consider a "can't miss" prospect (or if there is such a player), but he's the closest this organization has had in a long, long time.

Yep, pretty much since Patterson was rated the #1 prospect in baseball. ;)

 

However, we have had a couple of pitchers come up since then that were pretty much "can't miss". For example, there was the kid named Prior...

[imb]

dont forget juan the duan cruz

[beowulf28]

No thanks. I don't want Abreu.

 

I've probably missed it, but based on your stance on a couple other players, I have to ask... who exactly DO you want?

 

Adam Dunn

Wilkerson

Bradley

Marcus Giles

Coco Crisp

 

pitchers:

zito/burnett/beckett (i.e. another front line starter)

howry

 

I realize we're probably not going to get any of these players.

 

I just don't get the desire for Bradley. And I certainly wouldn't give up Pie for him. Abreu has a good arm...does Bradley? He can hit 40+ HR's...can Bradley? Bradley has speed, but there are plenty of other guys out there I'd rather have than Bradley. I would certainly give up Pie for Abreu, Dunn, Ichiro, M. Giles, Zito, Beckett, and maybe a few others.

[David]

Anyone remember when Abreu's little (or was it big?) brother was an infielder in the Cubs system?

 

Dennis, I think?

[David]

If Pie can get us a top caliber proven bat, then I'd trade him. He hasn't shown me he's a can't miss. All he really is now is a prospect with potential. And his K/BB ratio really does bother me. He could very easily be a flop, like so many other top tier Cub offensive prospects in recent years.

 

If the deal was right for Abreu, I'd do it and not think twice about it.

 

Don't forget Pie is 20 years old and expected to be playing regularly in the majors at 21. I don't know what you consider a "can't miss" prospect (or if there is such a player), but he's the closest this organization has had in a long, long time.

Yep, pretty much since Patterson was rated the #1 prospect in baseball. ;)

 

However, we have had a couple of pitchers come up since then that were pretty much "can't miss". For example, there was the kid named Prior...

 

Good call, Tim. They don't come anymore "can't miss" than Prior. He was Major League ready straight out of college.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

No thanks. I don't want Abreu.

 

I've probably missed it, but based on your stance on a couple other players, I have to ask... who exactly DO you want?

 

Adam Dunn

Wilkerson

Bradley

Marcus Giles

Coco Crisp

 

pitchers:

zito/burnett/beckett (i.e. another front line starter)

howry

 

I realize we're probably not going to get any of these players.

 

I just don't get the desire for Bradley. And I certainly wouldn't give up Pie for him. Abreu has a good arm...does Bradley? He can hit 40+ HR's...can Bradley? Bradley has speed, but there are plenty of other guys out there I'd rather have than Bradley. I would certainly give up Pie for Abreu, Dunn, Ichiro, M. Giles, Zito, Beckett, and maybe a few others.

 

Bradley could be had for a used jockstrap right now. No one I know suggested we trade Pie for him.

 

Bradley and Abreu don't play the same positions, cost the same in prospects and $ to acquire and keep on the payroll. i don't get the comparison between the two.

 

I do like Abreu. Don't get me wrong, but we shouldn't trade our top position prospect for a 32 year old outfielder. I'd willingly trade pitching for Abreu b/c we have plenty of that in the pipeline, but I'm not sure Philly would accept that.

Edited November 21, 2005 by Meat&PotatoesMan

[Transmogrified Tiger]

No thanks. I don't want Abreu.

 

I've probably missed it, but based on your stance on a couple other players, I have to ask... who exactly DO you want?

 

Adam Dunn

Wilkerson

Bradley

Marcus Giles

Coco Crisp

 

pitchers:

zito/burnett/beckett (i.e. another front line starter)

howry

 

I realize we're probably not going to get any of these players.

 

I just don't get the desire for Bradley. And I certainly wouldn't give up Pie for him. Abreu has a good arm...does Bradley? He can hit 40+ HR's...can Bradley? Bradley has speed, but there are plenty of other guys out there I'd rather have than Bradley. I would certainly give up Pie for Abreu, Dunn, Ichiro, M. Giles, Zito, Beckett, and maybe a few others.

 

People like Bradley because he's one of the most productive CF's in the game. That said, I don't think that M&PM was advocating trading Pie to get Milton.

[mg420]

If Pie can get us a top caliber proven bat, then I'd trade him. He hasn't shown me he's a can't miss. All he really is now is a prospect with potential. And his K/BB ratio really does bother me. He could very easily be a flop, like so many other top tier Cub offensive prospects in recent years.

 

If the deal was right for Abreu, I'd do it and not think twice about it.

 

Don't forget Pie is 20 years old and expected to be playing regularly in the majors at 21. I don't know what you consider a "can't miss" prospect (or if there is such a player), but he's the closest this organization has had in a long, long time.

Yep, pretty much since Patterson was rated the #1 prospect in baseball. ;)

 

However, we have had a couple of pitchers come up since then that were pretty much "can't miss". For example, there was the kid named Prior...

 

thats exactly what makes the can't miss label so useless. if a player who is labeled can't miss like prior lives up to the hype while another cant miss like patterson doesn't (if he wasnt a can't miss why was he labeled the #1 prospect in baseball?), the label of can't miss seems to be a hindsight evaluation without much value.

[Outshined_One]

Pie to me represents something important for this Cubs' team. There is A LOT to like about Pie. Along with his age, continuing maturity, and developing power, you also have a guy who bring with him an intense dedication to make himself a better player. Every report I've read about him talks about how he brings this incredibly exuberant to the table that is just infectious. He's won championships everywhere he's gone. I think that, given at least another half season down in the minors, he could improve his K/BB to an acceptable level.

 

Is he the guy who could bring the Cubs to the World Series? Possibly.

 

On the other hand, he's one of those rare and special players that many teams covet. If I'm the GM of any team in baseball and Jim Hendry asks me for any of my players (let's say I'm Jim Bowden and Hendry inquires about Livan), Pie is the first name to come out of my mouth. I don't care if he's asking for one of my superstars or a 25th man.

 

Pie is the only guy in this system right now who falls under that category. There are some players who could end up reaching that point (Harvey, Dopirak, Guzman, Pawelek, and possibly one or two others), but none of them are there right now. This is pretty much expected since most farm systems aren't exactly overflowing with them (unless you're the Dodgers or Angels).

 

I think the Phillies would be willing to do a trade for Abreu that didn't involve Pie, but it would be more costly. Murton, Williams, Moore, Pinto, and one lower level pitcher could do it. I don't think the Phillies have a ton of interest in pitchers like Hill, who are vulnerable to the homer. They also have pretty good depth at CF (nothing special, but some decent guys), so I think they'd be more interested in a guy who could fill in at a corner than Patterson.

 

I'd love to see Abreu manning RF next season for the Cubs, that's for sure.

[RynoRules]

One of my problems w/ Hendry has been that, while he has done a good job stockpiling minor league talent, he has allowed much of it to go stale. In other words, we all know that 90% of more of these guys won't make it (okay may be a little less, but then most who do get to the Bigs won't make any significant impact). Thus, I would prefer that he trade a few of them to get some established ML talent. Follow the Yankees model of the early to mid 90s: keep 4 or so cornerstone players who you developed in your system, and deal the rest for established talent.

[1908]

Follow the Yankees model of the early to mid 90s: keep 4 or so cornerstone players who you developed in your system, and deal the rest for established talent.

The Cubs have a long way to go to follow that model from a talent development standpoint.

[mg420]

One of my problems w/ Hendry has been that, while he has done a good job stockpiling minor league talent, he has allowed much of it to go stale. In other words, we all know that 90% of more of these guys won't make it (okay may be a little less, but then most who do get to the Bigs won't make any significant impact). Thus, I would prefer that he trade a few of them to get some established ML talent. Follow the Yankees model of the early to mid 90s: keep 4 or so cornerstone players who you developed in your system, and deal the rest for established talent.

 

thats sounds so easy but who to keep & who to trade? how many guys were above willis on the list when the cubs traded him? it's always a gamble whenever a player with alot of talent is traded. hill could be the next willis or the next lance dickson (now my age is showing).

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Just out of curiosity what do you guys think the odds of Pie becoming a 5x all-star type player? I understand this is a Cubs board but he seems a little overrated on NSBB to me.

[imb]

5%

[RynoRules]

One of my problems w/ Hendry has been that, while he has done a good job stockpiling minor league talent, he has allowed much of it to go stale. In other words, we all know that 90% of more of these guys won't make it (okay may be a little less, but then most who do get to the Bigs won't make any significant impact). Thus, I would prefer that he trade a few of them to get some established ML talent. Follow the Yankees model of the early to mid 90s: keep 4 or so cornerstone players who you developed in your system, and deal the rest for established talent.

 

thats sounds so easy but who to keep & who to trade? how many guys were above willis on the list when the cubs traded him? it's always a gamble whenever a player with alot of talent is traded. hill could be the next willis or the next lance dickson (now my age is showing).

 

My age shows too: I was in attendance for Lance Dickson's first ML start vs. the Houston Astros. He stunk.

 

The point isn't that some of the guys you trade don't wind up being good ML players, its that the vast majority will not, and therefore they should be dealt while their value is highest. Exhibit A is Juan Cruz; we just waited too long.

 

And in response to 1908's post, I agree that those blocks are not necessarily in place, but here is a start:

 

SP: Prior

IF: Ramirez (or if you prefer, Lee, but I think ARam b/c he is a bit younger)

OF: ?

Bullpen: ?

C: Barrett

 

Now, I will grant you that we developed only of those three, so we have a ways to go. But, like I said, its a start.

[RynoRules]

One of my problems w/ Hendry has been that, while he has done a good job stockpiling minor league talent, he has allowed much of it to go stale. In other words, we all know that 90% of more of these guys won't make it (okay may be a little less, but then most who do get to the Bigs won't make any significant impact). Thus, I would prefer that he trade a few of them to get some established ML talent. Follow the Yankees model of the early to mid 90s: keep 4 or so cornerstone players who you developed in your system, and deal the rest for established talent.

 

thats sounds so easy but who to keep & who to trade? how many guys were above willis on the list when the cubs traded him? it's always a gamble whenever a player with alot of talent is traded. hill could be the next willis or the next lance dickson (now my age is showing).

 

My age shows too: I was in attendance for Lance Dickson's first ML start vs. the Houston Astros. He stunk.

 

The point isn't that some of the guys you trade don't wind up being good ML players, its that the vast majority will not, and therefore they should be dealt while their value is highest. Exhibit A is Juan Cruz; we just waited too long.

 

And in response to 1908's post, I agree that those blocks are not necessarily in place, but here is a start:

 

SP: Prior

IF: Ramirez (or if you prefer, Lee, but I think ARam b/c he is a bit younger) and maybe Cedeno?

OF: Murton

Bullpen: ?

C: Barrett

 

Now, I will grant you that we developed only of those three, so we have a ways to go. But, like I said, its a start.

[goonys evil twin]

Just out of curiosity what do you guys think the odds of Pie becoming a 5x all-star type player? I understand this is a Cubs board but he seems a little overrated on NSBB to me.

 

I'd set the line at 18/1 that Pie becomes a 5 time all star or better. Perhaps if he was traded to a lesser team, the odds would be lower, and he's the type of guy who could be the mandatory pick from a team based solely on all his tools and flashiness rather than production.

[JeffH]

I didn't hear this first hand, but, evidently, Von Joshua was on the radio one day and couldn't stop gushing over him. The radio guys asked him if Pie might one day get strong enough to hit double digit HR. Joshua laughed and said something to the effect of "Try forty plus".

 

It has to be taken with a grain of salt, but it's worth more than the uninformed opinions of most of us.

[RynoRules]

:oops:

 

Double post (the second one has a couple of edits though)

[RynoRules]

5%

 

I think it might be a little higher, but I agree with the sentiment.

[Outshined_One]

Just out of curiosity what do you guys think the odds of Pie becoming a 5x all-star type player? I understand this is a Cubs board but he seems a little overrated on NSBB to me.

 

Substantially better than anyone else in the farm system right now.

 

He's not a can't miss player (few guys in the minors are), but his ceiling is something that is so incredibly tantalizing right now, especially since he started developing his power last season down in AA. You look at what could be with a player like Pie and you would likely see something along the lines of numerous All Star appearances.

 

But, you also have to look at his floor. Pie does have his fair share of issues and will have to make adjustments as he moves along in baseball. There's the possibility that he could bust anywhere along the way, yes, but that's a given for any player.

 

Given where Pie is now, I think that, if he had been brought up this past season, he would have been fairly similar to Patterson. Dusty would have seen him and horribly misused him as a leadoff hitter (he projects better as a middle/bottom of the order guy). Yet, he would have made some exciting plays in the outfield and would have shown flashes of what could be. His speed and arm are already well-developed and both are good enough to allow him to play CF quite well.

 

The difference is, unlike Corey, Pie is not even old enough to drink legally. He's still growing into his body and maturing. There is plenty of reason to believe that he'll improve his K/BB given time and patience.

 

This club could very well screw up Pie like they did with Patterson. I really hope that won't be the case.

 

But...if they play their cards right, Pie will be a special player for the Cubs.

[Andy]

Just out of curiosity what do you guys think the odds of Pie becoming a 5x all-star type player? I understand this is a Cubs board but he seems a little overrated on NSBB to me.

I'll put the odds of that at about 15 percent. If he ended up on Atlanta the odds would become more like 75 percent, but let's hope the Cubs' penchant for running prospects into the ground doesn't happen with Felix.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

5%

 

That would be about my guess but given the choice I would take the under.