Could we contend with this team?

[soapy]

With the added flexibility the Braves have because of Chipper's contract restructuring, and assuming the Braves win "ties," do you outbid a 5 year $10 million dollar Braves offer for Furdcal? Assuming the S.S Nomar has sailed, what do you do about shortstop?

 

With the restructured contract of Chipper Jones, I'd see if Atlanta would rather just resign Furcal and trade Chipper to the Cubs.

 

Cedeno plays SS since he is one.

 

 

Overall I'd prefer Julio Lugo.

 

I'd make Cedeno my SS and use all my resources to try to sign Giles and trade for Bradley or Wilkerson. If I can't sign Giles, I do everything I can to facilitate a trade for and impact RF. I try to sign or trade for another SP (not named Burnett) and possibly another reliable RP. I keep Walker.

 

Walker

Murton

Lee

Giles/Abreu/etc.

Ramirez

Bradley

Barrett

Cedeno

 

Give Baker that roster and Neifi's leading off.

 

Then I fire him. Hey, the question was, "what would you do?", not "what would Dusty or Hendry do?"

[CubfaninCA]

Just curious... Is Texas a far superior hitter's park when compared to Wrigley?

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

 

Around 15% better.

 

I forgot they changed the name. They've had a weird run, going from among the top, back toward the middle, toward the top and back to the middle.

 

Either way, it's a better hitter's park than Wrigley, and Mench has been brutal away from it.

 

Well, he does play a lot of games @ pitcher parks (Oakland, Anaheim & Seattle). He's pretty far down the list of who I want tho. Give me Giles or Abreu or Dunn or Floyd or Burrell or Ichiro or Drew instead.

[KingCubsFan]

Give Baker that roster and Neifi's leading off.

That's exactly what I was going to say. Baker never saw Walker as a leadoff hitter last year, and I don't think that will change.

Furthermore, I don't think you can pencil in Cedeno in any lineup at shortstop. Dusty didn't play him when we were out of the race last year, so why should we expect him to play Cedeno when we have something to play for? Unfortunately, the best we can hope for would be a 60/40 split between Cedeno and Neifi, but I'm not sure even that is possible.

[kroth1342]

Give Baker that roster and Neifi's leading off.

That's exactly what I was going to say. Baker never saw Walker as a leadoff hitter last year, and I don't think that will change.

Furthermore, I don't think you can pencil in Cedeno in any lineup at shortstop. Dusty didn't play him when we were out of the race last year, so why should we expect him to play Cedeno when we have something to play for? Unfortunately, the best we can hope for would be a 60/40 split between Cedeno and Neifi, but I'm not sure even that is possible.

 

Co-sign^^

[nick23]

Just curious... Is Texas a far superior hitter's park when compared to Wrigley?

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

 

Around 15% better.

 

I forgot they changed the name. They've had a weird run, going from among the top, back toward the middle, toward the top and back to the middle.

 

Either way, it's a better hitter's park than Wrigley, and Mench has been brutal away from it.

 

 

Well, he does play a lot of games @ pitcher parks (Oakland, Anaheim & Seattle). He's pretty far down the list of who I want tho. Give me Giles or Abreu or Dunn or Floyd or Burrell or Ichiro or Drew instead.

I'm asking this question because I have no idea. You just mentioned trading for Drew. I know the Dodgers are talking of drastically cutting payroll this year. Do you guys think theres any chance that they're shopping Drew this offseason? I would love to have him for right. Especially now that we're 1 year into his contract.

[soapy]

Give Baker that roster and Neifi's leading off.

That's exactly what I was going to say. Baker never saw Walker as a leadoff hitter last year, and I don't think that will change.

Furthermore, I don't think you can pencil in Cedeno in any lineup at shortstop. Dusty didn't play him when we were out of the race last year, so why should we expect him to play Cedeno when we have something to play for? Unfortunately, the best we can hope for would be a 60/40 split between Cedeno and Neifi, but I'm not sure even that is possible.

 

Co-sign^^

 

You guys are right to some extent and that's the problem. I'm so freakin' sick of people making excuses and saying that we need to taylor our roster to Dusty's (mis)management. THAT IS ABSURD. If we have to worry about Dusty putting our worst hitter at the top of the order, guess what, that hitter isn't your biggest problem. Your manager is.

 

Having said that, the question was "what would you do?" That is what I would do. Cedeno is my SS, Walker is my 2B and leadoff hitter. Dusty gets with the program, or he finds a new job.

[snoodmonger]

I'm with Gooney and BK. I want no part of Mench, except maybe as a bench player. bench/Mench. It even rhymes. So it has to make sense.

 

As for the lineup, it's definitely an improvement over last year, but it still requires a heavy reliance on our pitching, and that worries me. I realize no matter what we do, we'll live and die by our SP, but I'd like to give us a little margin for error. That lineup is one Wood bum elbow away from being a third place team again. An impact bat in RF gives us a chance to compete even with a few injuries.

[CubfaninCA]

Just curious... Is Texas a far superior hitter's park when compared to Wrigley?

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

 

Around 15% better.

 

I forgot they changed the name. They've had a weird run, going from among the top, back toward the middle, toward the top and back to the middle.

 

Either way, it's a better hitter's park than Wrigley, and Mench has been brutal away from it.

 

 

Well, he does play a lot of games @ pitcher parks (Oakland, Anaheim & Seattle). He's pretty far down the list of who I want tho. Give me Giles or Abreu or Dunn or Floyd or Burrell or Ichiro or Drew instead.

I'm asking this question because I have no idea. You just mentioned trading for Drew. I know the Dodgers are talking of drastically cutting payroll this year. Do you guys think theres any chance that they're shopping Drew this offseason? I would love to have him for right. Especially now that we're 1 year into his contract.

 

Well, he's far from a fan favorite in LA. People are pretty upset that he only played 70some games last year. Since LA is trying to appease fans, I can see them moving Drew, but they'll need to get a name player or two for him. Can't see it being just some salary dump.

[BigbadB]

I'd be fine if LA wanted to throw Drew in on a Bradley trade. :D

 

To get Drew, we'd have to get a 3rd team involved. They aren't going to trade an impact bat unless they get an impact bat in return.

 

Cincinnati sends Dunn and/or Kearns to LA, LA sends Bradley and Drew, Cubs send pitching prospects galore to Cincy. Something of that nature, I would presume.

Edited November 18, 2005 by BigbadB

[CubfaninCA]

Give Baker that roster and Neifi's leading off.

That's exactly what I was going to say. Baker never saw Walker as a leadoff hitter last year, and I don't think that will change.

Furthermore, I don't think you can pencil in Cedeno in any lineup at shortstop. Dusty didn't play him when we were out of the race last year, so why should we expect him to play Cedeno when we have something to play for? Unfortunately, the best we can hope for would be a 60/40 split between Cedeno and Neifi, but I'm not sure even that is possible.

 

Co-sign^^

 

You guys are right to some extent and that's the problem. I'm so freakin' sick of people making excuses and saying that we need to taylor our roster to Dusty's (mis)management. THAT IS ABSURD. If we have to worry about Dusty putting our worst hitter at the top of the order, guess what, that hitter isn't your biggest problem. Your manager is.

 

Having said that, the question was "what would you do?" That is what I would do. Cedeno is my SS, Walker is my 2B and leadoff hitter. Dusty gets with the program, or he finds a new job.

 

It's not excusues. It's just reality. Baker could be in Chicago for a while. We aren't going to see him ever start some Moneyballer dream lineup. He wants guy's @ the top of the order w/ speed. Hopefully, Hendry can get guys who can get on base and have speed. Hence why I'm hoping for Furcal or Pierre.

[CubfaninCA]

I'd be fine if LA wanted to throw Drew in on a Bradley trade. :D

 

To get Drew, we'd have to get a 3rd team involved. They aren't going to trade an impact bat unless they get an impact bat in return.

 

Cincinnati sends Dunn and/or Kearns to LA, LA sends Bradley and Drew, Cubs send pitching prospects galore to Cincy. Something of that nature, I would presume.

 

That could work. I wouldn't mind seeing Wood, Walker and Patterson sent to LA for Drew, Lowe and Bradley.

[Guest]

Just curious... Is Texas a far superior hitter's park when compared to Wrigley?

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

 

Around 15% better.

ESPN uses a less sophisticated and less accurate method for calculating park factors. Baseball-Reference.com's PFs are more reliable. At any rate, Texas' park (which will always be The Ballpark to me) has consistently shown the most bias towards hitters of all parks in the AL, and is second only to Coors in the majors. (Though Kauffman was up there until the Royals moved the fences back a few years ago.)

[soapy]

Give Baker that roster and Neifi's leading off.

That's exactly what I was going to say. Baker never saw Walker as a leadoff hitter last year, and I don't think that will change.

Furthermore, I don't think you can pencil in Cedeno in any lineup at shortstop. Dusty didn't play him when we were out of the race last year, so why should we expect him to play Cedeno when we have something to play for? Unfortunately, the best we can hope for would be a 60/40 split between Cedeno and Neifi, but I'm not sure even that is possible.

 

Co-sign^^

 

You guys are right to some extent and that's the problem. I'm so freakin' sick of people making excuses and saying that we need to taylor our roster to Dusty's (mis)management. THAT IS ABSURD. If we have to worry about Dusty putting our worst hitter at the top of the order, guess what, that hitter isn't your biggest problem. Your manager is.

 

Having said that, the question was "what would you do?" That is what I would do. Cedeno is my SS, Walker is my 2B and leadoff hitter. Dusty gets with the program, or he finds a new job.

 

It's not excusues. It's just reality. Baker could be in Chicago for a while. We aren't going to see him ever start some Moneyballer dream lineup. He wants guy's @ the top of the order w/ speed. Hopefully, Hendry can get guys who can get on base and have speed. Hence why I'm hoping for Furcal or Pierre.

 

I wouldn't even consider that a "moneyballer" lineup though. Walker is not slow. Murton is fast. Those guys aren't going to steal a bunch of bases, but they're going to take extra bases on singles and balls in the gap.

 

Like I've said many times before; I'm not against signing Furcal. But I'm against giving him a 5 year $50 mil contract when we have a guy who can likely fill the position in-house (for $350,000) and a hole the size the Grand Canyon in RF (which has zero chance of being filled in-house). Tayloring to Dusty's fetishes doesn't make this team any stronger. It only uses up money that can be allocated better elsewhere IMO.

[CubfaninCA]

Give Baker that roster and Neifi's leading off.

That's exactly what I was going to say. Baker never saw Walker as a leadoff hitter last year, and I don't think that will change.

Furthermore, I don't think you can pencil in Cedeno in any lineup at shortstop. Dusty didn't play him when we were out of the race last year, so why should we expect him to play Cedeno when we have something to play for? Unfortunately, the best we can hope for would be a 60/40 split between Cedeno and Neifi, but I'm not sure even that is possible.

 

Co-sign^^

 

You guys are right to some extent and that's the problem. I'm so freakin' sick of people making excuses and saying that we need to taylor our roster to Dusty's (mis)management. THAT IS ABSURD. If we have to worry about Dusty putting our worst hitter at the top of the order, guess what, that hitter isn't your biggest problem. Your manager is.

 

Having said that, the question was "what would you do?" That is what I would do. Cedeno is my SS, Walker is my 2B and leadoff hitter. Dusty gets with the program, or he finds a new job.

 

It's not excusues. It's just reality. Baker could be in Chicago for a while. We aren't going to see him ever start some Moneyballer dream lineup. He wants guy's @ the top of the order w/ speed. Hopefully, Hendry can get guys who can get on base and have speed. Hence why I'm hoping for Furcal or Pierre.

 

I wouldn't even consider that a "moneyballer" lineup though. Walker is not slow. Murton is fast. Those guys aren't going to steal a bunch of bases, but they're going to take extra bases on singles and balls in the gap.

 

Like I've said many times before; I'm not against signing Furcal. But I'm against giving him a 5 year $50 mil contract when we have a guy who can likely fill the position in-house (for $350,000) and a hole the size the Grand Canyon in RF (which has zero chance of being filled in-house). Tayloring to Dusty's fetishes doesn't make this team any stronger. It only uses up money that can be allocated better elsewhere IMO.

 

How many bases you think those 2 would steal in total?? Maybe 10? That top of the order seems pretty Moneyballish to me where the stolen base or threat of is pretty much insignificant.

[soapy]

Give Baker that roster and Neifi's leading off.

That's exactly what I was going to say. Baker never saw Walker as a leadoff hitter last year, and I don't think that will change.

Furthermore, I don't think you can pencil in Cedeno in any lineup at shortstop. Dusty didn't play him when we were out of the race last year, so why should we expect him to play Cedeno when we have something to play for? Unfortunately, the best we can hope for would be a 60/40 split between Cedeno and Neifi, but I'm not sure even that is possible.

 

Co-sign^^

 

You guys are right to some extent and that's the problem. I'm so freakin' sick of people making excuses and saying that we need to taylor our roster to Dusty's (mis)management. THAT IS ABSURD. If we have to worry about Dusty putting our worst hitter at the top of the order, guess what, that hitter isn't your biggest problem. Your manager is.

 

Having said that, the question was "what would you do?" That is what I would do. Cedeno is my SS, Walker is my 2B and leadoff hitter. Dusty gets with the program, or he finds a new job.

 

It's not excusues. It's just reality. Baker could be in Chicago for a while. We aren't going to see him ever start some Moneyballer dream lineup. He wants guy's @ the top of the order w/ speed. Hopefully, Hendry can get guys who can get on base and have speed. Hence why I'm hoping for Furcal or Pierre.

 

I wouldn't even consider that a "moneyballer" lineup though. Walker is not slow. Murton is fast. Those guys aren't going to steal a bunch of bases, but they're going to take extra bases on singles and balls in the gap.

 

Like I've said many times before; I'm not against signing Furcal. But I'm against giving him a 5 year $50 mil contract when we have a guy who can likely fill the position in-house (for $350,000) and a hole the size the Grand Canyon in RF (which has zero chance of being filled in-house). Tayloring to Dusty's fetishes doesn't make this team any stronger. It only uses up money that can be allocated better elsewhere IMO.

 

How many bases you think those 2 would steal in total?? Maybe 10? That top of the order seems pretty Moneyballish to me where the stolen base or threat of is pretty much insignificant.

 

How many bases are Neifi/Macias going to steal? Neifi had a grand total of 8 (in 12 attempts) last year. You don't think Walker or Murton could match those lofty numbers?

[Dr. Cub]

If you look at the production in terms of OPS from our OF last year compared to what it would likely be with that OF, you will see a vast improvement. In '05 we received the following production values:

 

LF .738 OPS, CF .643 OPS, RF .746 OPS

 

You can take a minute to expel the rest of the vomit now.

 

With the OF Vance listed an .800+ OPS from each OF position should be expected. At that level of production you would be suggesting drop offs for each of those OF'ers . Murton was at .908 last year, Bradley was at .835, and Mench at .818 OPS.

 

Mench hit .254/.317/.452 away from Arlington last year. He was .262/.315/.476 from 2002-2004. I would not assume an 800+ OPS out of a guy whose 818 career is help up only by his time playing in Arlington.

 

I stand corrected. However, that 20-30 point drop still doesn't nullify the fact that the proposed lineup by Vance still outproduces the 2005 lineup. His question was simply whether or not that lineup would contend, and I have to believe that it would. Is it a great offensive OF? Of course not. It isn't want I envision as ideal, but it may be what JH goes after unfortunately; which is sort of what Vance was suggesting. The lineup he suggested is by far a better lineup than the one we put out there in 2005, and would contend for the playoffs with decent pitching. By NO MEANS though do I advocate making a run at Mench or a similar RF. I want Giles or Bradley or Wilkerson or any combination of the three.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

I know Dusty is the wrong manager to correctly implement something like this, but what if you went with a "super platoon" system in the OF? Murton and Jacque Jones in LF, Kevin Mench and Jeromy Burnitz in RF? If you play to their split strengths, the offense would be pretty good, and the bench would be dramatically improved. And, the combined $$ cost of Jones + Mench + Burnitz would be about equal to one Brian Giles.

[goonys evil twin]

I know Dusty is the wrong manager to correctly implement something like this, but what if you went with a "super platoon" system in the OF? Murton and Jacque Jones in LF, Kevin Mench and Jeromy Burnitz in RF? If you play to their split strengths, the offense would be pretty good, and the bench would be dramatically improved. And, the combined $$ cost of Jones + Mench + Burnitz would be about equal to one Brian Giles.

 

Other than the fact that I don't see Jones signing onto a plan like that (and that there's no way Dusty would sit Jones for Murton), it's an interesting idea.

[JeffH]

I don't hate Jones as much as some here do, but I don't have any interest in him at the length of contract he's likely to get.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

I know Dusty is the wrong manager to correctly implement something like this, but what if you went with a "super platoon" system in the OF? Murton and Jacque Jones in LF, Kevin Mench and Jeromy Burnitz in RF? If you play to their split strengths, the offense would be pretty good, and the bench would be dramatically improved. And, the combined $$ cost of Jones + Mench + Burnitz would be about equal to one Brian Giles.

 

Other than the fact that I don't see Jones signing onto a plan like that (and that there's no way Dusty would sit Jones for Murton), it's an interesting idea.

 

Looking at the numbers more closely, I guess I'd want someone other than Burnitz, but the other three absolutely. Jones' split against RHP: 814 OPS. Murton's split against LHP: 1006 OPS. Mench's split against LHP: 980 OPS. Those are some fearsome numbers. Who could the 4th OF be, a lefty bat, instead of Burnitz?

[BigbadB]

I know Dusty is the wrong manager to correctly implement something like this, but what if you went with a "super platoon" system in the OF? Murton and Jacque Jones in LF, Kevin Mench and Jeromy Burnitz in RF? If you play to their split strengths, the offense would be pretty good, and the bench would be dramatically improved. And, the combined $$ cost of Jones + Mench + Burnitz would be about equal to one Brian Giles.

 

Other than the fact that I don't see Jones signing onto a plan like that (and that there's no way Dusty would sit Jones for Murton), it's an interesting idea.

 

Looking at the numbers more closely, I guess I'd want someone other than Burnitz, but the other three absolutely. Jones' split against RHP: 814 OPS. Murton's split against LHP: 1006 OPS. Mench's split against LHP: 980 OPS. Those are some fearsome numbers. Who could the 4th OF be, a lefty bat, instead of Burnitz?

 

Stick Walker out there. He'd be cheaper than Burnitz.

[JeffH]

Todd Walker - The Worst Defensive Right Fielder in the History of Major League Baseball

[BigbadB]

Todd Walker - The Worst Defensive Right Fielder in the History of Major League Baseball

 

Well, I meant LF with Murton. Personally, I'm not advocating this scenario.

 

Just get Giles and be done with it already.

[frostwyrm]

Stick Walker out there. He'd be cheaper than Burnitz.

 

I'm not saying I want Burnitz, but I don't think he'll be real expensive anymore. He's now at the level where he'll probably get offers to start from hopeless small market teams, but not from any contenders.

[JeffH]

He's now at the level where he'll probably get offers to start from hopeless small market teams

 

Like the Cubs!

 

Oh, wait - you said small market.