Furcal another FA gone from the market?

[fearthecubs]

ATLANTA -- Expectations are that Rafael Furcal will file for free agency some time next week. But he and his agent, Paul Kinzer, will first meet with the Braves to evaluate where contract negotiations stand.

Furcal will return from his native Dominican Republic on Monday and likely meet with Braves general manager John Schuerholz on Tuesday or Wednesday. The two parties have discussed a contract extension for the past three months.

 

"All things being equal or even if the Braves were close [to other offers], this would be his first option," Kinzer said. "We'll just see what [schuerholz] has to say on Tuesday."

 

http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20051028&content_id=1261804&vkey=news_atl&fext=.jsp&c_id=atl

[RockTheIvy]

Good, then maybe we will resign Nomar!

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

That's good news. I don't want Furcal.

[Backtobanks]

Or trade for Marcus Giles!

[Jazz]

If furcal is resigned for anything close to 8 mil, then Giles becomes very available IMO.

 

Im guessing if furcal, Hendrys alleged number #1 target, becomes unavailable, he could pursue the same kind of mix of defense, speed, and contact hitting (with OBP that we need no less, but dont tell him that ;)), from Giles. And of course the reprocutions of having Brian look at the cubs more seriously arent that bad either :)

 

Giles for Walker+Williams/Hill?

 

Giles+C. Jones for Walker+Williams/Hill+Patterson

 

The latter i believe the braves would jump on because they come out excepetionally well ahead in the money dept., as they unload Chippers 17 Mil contract + giles potentially 5 mil contract, and only take on about 4.5 back, leaving them +17.5 mil. Also, they find replacements rather quickly with the players they have/acquire. Jones can be replaced with Wilson Betemit, their young 3B whos line last year in 246 AB's was .305/.359/.435, and walker to start at 2nd.

 

the cubs find their starting LF, who can back up 3B, and play some RF i believe. His bat might not be worth his contract, but at 17 mil for 1 more year (with a 15 Mil option in 07 that vests only after 450 PA's), the risk is moderate, for a .400+ OBP. This also makes murton expendable, and could be a very valuable trade chip in acquiring a RF, a CF, or an SP.

 

I would shop murton to every ML team looking for a cheap productive LFer , those would be:

 

Marlins

Yankees

Athletics

Padres

Rangers

Nationals

Dodgers

 

I think there are many oppurtunities among this list to acquire an innings eater, a stopgap CF with good defense, or a Big Bat in RF.

I like a murton + williams/hill + Sing/Harvey for Zito deal.

How does this sound (speculating):

 

 

2B M. Giles (5M) .366 Career OBP

CF Lofton (4M?) .373

1B Lee (8.7) .363

3B Ramirez (11M) .329

RF B. Giles (13M?) .413

LF Jones (17M) .401

SS Cedeno (.5M) .356 (in 80 AB's)

C Barrett (3M) .320

 

SP Prior (3M)

SP Zambrano (5M)

SP Zito (7M)

SP Wood (11M)

SP Maddux (9M)

 

RP Rusch (3M)

RP Van Buren (.3M)

RP Williamson (1M)

RP Novoa (.5M)

RP Ohman (.5M)

RP Howry (3.5M?)

RP Dempster (5M)

 

Bench

C Blanco (1.5)

IF Fontenot (.3M)

IF Theriot (.3M)/D'Angelo Jimenez? (1.5M)

OF Hairston (.5M)

OF Sweeney (1.5M)

 

Total = 100M without breaking a sweat :)

Edited October 30, 2005 by Jazz

[rawaction]

If Furcal is re-signed, I think you could see Andruw and/or Chipper available too. If they give Furcal close to $10M, I bet they would be dying for someone to take on Chipper's contract. Estrada would be a darkhorse to be available too.

[Brian]

isn't Estrada already on the block, with McCann ready to go.

[Jazz]

If Furcal is re-signed, I think you could see Andruw and/or Chipper available too. If they give Furcal close to $10M, I bet they would be dying for someone to take on Chipper's contract. Estrada would be a darkhorse to be available too.

 

refer to edited post. :)

[Gunned]

For those not wanting Furcal, and just for discussion's sake, I'll quote a post made on another message board by a very good, knowledgeable poster:

 

Baseball Prospectus has attempted to quantify baserunning ability by adjusting OBP:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4344

 

In this article, they create a new stat called Speed-adjusted On Base percentage or S.O.B. This statistic takes into account stolen bases and the ability to take an extra base to provide an adjusted OBP.

 

For years, fans have suggested integrating SBs into SLG...this article argues that it is more appropriate to add SB into OBP. The cause of a high OBP is putting guys on base--in other words, putting the team in a position to score runs. The result of a high SLG is usually extra runs scored. Stolen bases and taking the extra base--like OBP--put the team in a position to score runs.

 

Here's an example of S.O.B at work. In 2004, Furcal had a .344 OBP. However, due to his good stolen base rate (29 SB in 35 attempts) and his ability to take extra bases and contribute additional value on the bases, his S.O.B was .370--by the method introduced in this article, Furcal had the same value as an average baserunner with a .370 OBP.

 

To calculate S.O.B, an additional statistic--Equivalent Baserunning (EqBR)--is needed as the component that measures taking the extra base, etc. That stat is not readily available on BP's website. However, Furcal has always had a high percentage of success stealing bases, indicating that his EqBR has always been high. So, I'm going to assume different levels of EqBR in the following calculations. Here is how valuable Furcal has been based on S.O.B:

 

2000: OBP: .394; S.O.B (EqBR 4.0): .412; S.O.B (EqBR 4.5): .414; S.O.B (EqBR 4.9): .416

2001: OBP: .321; S.O.B (EqBR 4.0): .352; S.O.B (EqBR 4.5): .356; S.O.B (EqBR 4.9): .358

2002: OBP: .323; S.O.B (EqBR 4.0): .329; S.O.B (EqBR 4.5): .331; S.O.B (EqBR 4.9): .332

2003: OBP: .352; S.O.B (EqBR 4.0): .374; S.O.B (EqBR 4.5): .375; S.O.B (EqBR 4.9): .377

2004: OBP: .344; S.O.B (EqBR 4.0): .366; S.O.B (EqBR 4.5): .368; S.O.B (EqBR 4.9): .370

2005: OBP: .348; S.O.B (EqBR 4.0): .371; S.O.B (EqBR 4.5): .373; S.O.B (EqBR 4.9): .374

 

Again, I don't have the exact calculations because EqBR is not available on BP's website. But these numbers are probably close. The bottom line is Furcal is substantially more valuable than his OBP alone would appear to make him, and we can reasonably expect that pattern to continue in the future.

 

Not a perfect methodology, but it makes a good point that Furcal has additional value beyond just his OBP because he's a smart, effective baserunner.

[YearofDaCubs]

After having a pathetic 1 and 2 spots a Furcal woudl make a difference. How can Baker not try and put Walker at the 1 hole? The man is terrible.

[Exile on Waveland]

For those not wanting Furcal, and just for discussion's sake, I'll quote a post made on another message board by a very good, knowledgeable poster:

 

Baseball Prospectus has attempted to quantify baserunning ability by adjusting OBP:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4344

 

In this article, they create a new stat called Speed-adjusted On Base percentage or S.O.B. This statistic takes into account stolen bases and the ability to take an extra base to provide an adjusted OBP.

 

For years, fans have suggested integrating SBs into SLG...this article argues that it is more appropriate to add SB into OBP. The cause of a high OBP is putting guys on base--in other words, putting the team in a position to score runs. The result of a high SLG is usually extra runs scored. Stolen bases and taking the extra base--like OBP--put the team in a position to score runs.

 

Here's an example of S.O.B at work. In 2004, Furcal had a .344 OBP. However, due to his good stolen base rate (29 SB in 35 attempts) and his ability to take extra bases and contribute additional value on the bases, his S.O.B was .370--by the method introduced in this article, Furcal had the same value as an average baserunner with a .370 OBP.

 

To calculate S.O.B, an additional statistic--Equivalent Baserunning (EqBR)--is needed as the component that measures taking the extra base, etc. That stat is not readily available on BP's website. However, Furcal has always had a high percentage of success stealing bases, indicating that his EqBR has always been high. So, I'm going to assume different levels of EqBR in the following calculations. Here is how valuable Furcal has been based on S.O.B:

 

2000: OBP: .394; S.O.B (EqBR 4.0): .412; S.O.B (EqBR 4.5): .414; S.O.B (EqBR 4.9): .416

2001: OBP: .321; S.O.B (EqBR 4.0): .352; S.O.B (EqBR 4.5): .356; S.O.B (EqBR 4.9): .358

2002: OBP: .323; S.O.B (EqBR 4.0): .329; S.O.B (EqBR 4.5): .331; S.O.B (EqBR 4.9): .332

2003: OBP: .352; S.O.B (EqBR 4.0): .374; S.O.B (EqBR 4.5): .375; S.O.B (EqBR 4.9): .377

2004: OBP: .344; S.O.B (EqBR 4.0): .366; S.O.B (EqBR 4.5): .368; S.O.B (EqBR 4.9): .370

2005: OBP: .348; S.O.B (EqBR 4.0): .371; S.O.B (EqBR 4.5): .373; S.O.B (EqBR 4.9): .374

 

Again, I don't have the exact calculations because EqBR is not available on BP's website. But these numbers are probably close. The bottom line is Furcal is substantially more valuable than his OBP alone would appear to make him, and we can reasonably expect that pattern to continue in the future.

 

Yeah, as long as he's a good S.O.B., I'm all for it.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

That explanation didn't really tell me why baserunning should be included in OBP and not SLG. OBP's greatest value as an evaluation is how many times you don't make an out. If you want to increase the accuracy of how many runs a player helps you contribute, you calculate how often you get past first base by yourself, or SLG. That's where steals and baserunning should be incorporated. His logic for putting steals in OBP could be applied for 2B, 3B, and HR under that logic.

[Backtobanks]

If Furcal is re-signed, I think you could see Andruw and/or Chipper available too. If they give Furcal close to $10M, I bet they would be dying for someone to take on Chipper's contract. Estrada would be a darkhorse to be available too.

 

Andruw would look good in CF. Trade for Lugo, Castillo, or M. Giles to go along with Cedeno in the infield. B. Giles would be incredible in RF if they could fit him in the budget, but if not, they would have a pretty solid lineup:

 

Lugo, Castillo, or M. Giles

Murton (or B. Giles)

Lee

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

RF? (or Murton)

Cedeno

 

With B. Giles, we lead the league in scoring. Without B. Giles, we have a very solid lineup capable of winning the Central Division.

[fearthecubs]

The most recent news off the wire has the Mets getting into the bidding as well......at second base.

 

Big Apple beckons?

Nov 1 - Furcal's agent told the New York Daily News that free agent shortstop would be interested in playing second base for the Mets alongside shortstop Jose Reyes.

Kaz Matsui still has one year and $8 million left on his contract, but the Mets are still pursuing second base options. And Furcal has experience playing second base during winter ball. In addition, Furcal's brother and extended family live in the Bronx.

 

Furcal and his agent meet with the Braves on Wednesday, but he may be too pricey to keep. The Cubs are also expected to bid for Furcal.

[Bgbird68]

http://www.ajc.com/braves/content/sports/braves/1105/02braves.html

 

The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets already told his agent they will be big players in the Furcal sweepstakes if the free-agent shortstop doesn't re-sign with the Braves during an exclusive 15-day negotiating period before Nov. 11.

 

I think if the Mets have their heart set on Furcal, they will win a bidding war.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

http://www.ajc.com/braves/content/sports/braves/1105/02braves.html

 

The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets already told his agent they will be big players in the Furcal sweepstakes if the free-agent shortstop doesn't re-sign with the Braves during an exclusive 15-day negotiating period before Nov. 11.

 

I think if the Mets have their heart set on Furcal, they will win a bidding war.

 

I think we have as much money to spend as the Mets. If it comes down to the Cubs and Mets, I doubt money will be the factor. It will come down to whether Furcal would rather go to the Mets and play 2b or go to the Cubs as a SS.

[CUBZ99]

Glad to hear that the Cubs are serious about persuing Furcal.

 

If the Cubs sign Furcal does that end their pursuit of Pierre or another CF possibly Lofton or Damon? I'm hoping that is not the case. It would be nice for Hendry to actually prove that he wants guys that get on base. A combo of any two of the three would make a nice improvement at the top of the order.

[E.J.]

I just can't see Furcal moving over to play 2b for the Mets. He's only played 2b in 5 games in the last 5 years, he's got a cannon for an arm that will probably kill the 1b if he plays 2b, and I just don't see the Mets throwing a bunch of money at him when they are already paying quite a bit of money for Matsui. I'm just worried that Hendry is going to overpay for Furcal by a lot.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

The Braves are meeting with Furcal today.

 

It could take a four-year contract worth at least $9 million annually to retain Furcal, who was scheduled to return to Atlanta late Tuesday and meet today with general manager John Schuerholz and assistant GM Frank Wren.

 

"This meeting is going to be just to see what everybody's feeling," agent Paul Kinzer said. "After this, we'll probably get more to discussing [terms].

 

"It isn't going to take long. We've got a pretty good idea what the market is."

 

 

We may know where Atlanta fits into all of this very shortly.

[CUBZ99]

I just can't see Furcal moving over to play 2b for the Mets. He's only played 2b in 5 games in the last 5 years, he's got a cannon for an arm that will probably kill the 1b if he plays 2b, and I just don't see the Mets throwing a bunch of money at him when they are already paying quite a bit of money for Matsui. I'm just worried that Hendry is going to overpay for Furcal by a lot.

 

When is the last time that Hendry vastly overpaid for a big time free agent? Sure he slightly over pays on 1 to 3 year deals, but I can't think of a deal of 4 or more years that he has overpaid.

[E.J.]

I just can't see Furcal moving over to play 2b for the Mets. He's only played 2b in 5 games in the last 5 years, he's got a cannon for an arm that will probably kill the 1b if he plays 2b, and I just don't see the Mets throwing a bunch of money at him when they are already paying quite a bit of money for Matsui. I'm just worried that Hendry is going to overpay for Furcal by a lot.

 

When is the last time that Hendry vastly overpaid for a big time free agent? Sure he slightly over pays on 1 to 3 year deals, but I can't think of a deal of 4 or more years that he has overpaid.

 

I'm just worried that he's so set on getting Furcal as a leadoff hitter that he's going to give him way more money than he's worth. I'd rather the Cubs go in a different direction and let Cedeno start or try and trade for Lugo if Furcal is going to cost way too much. I'd love to have Furcal, but I just don't think he brings that much more to the table than say Cedeno or Lugo if he's going to cost $10 mil a year for 4 years.

 

I'm not so much worried about what Furcal will cost this coming year because the Cubs obviously have a lot of money to spend this offseason. I'm more worried about how Furcal's contract is going to look 3-4 years down the road.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

I just can't see Furcal moving over to play 2b for the Mets. He's only played 2b in 5 games in the last 5 years, he's got a cannon for an arm that will probably kill the 1b if he plays 2b, and I just don't see the Mets throwing a bunch of money at him when they are already paying quite a bit of money for Matsui. I'm just worried that Hendry is going to overpay for Furcal by a lot.

 

When is the last time that Hendry vastly overpaid for a big time free agent? Sure he slightly over pays on 1 to 3 year deals, but I can't think of a deal of 4 or more years that he has overpaid.

 

Chicago told Furcal's agent that we'd be "big players" in the "Furcal sweepstakes." That sounds like overpaying to me.

[David]

I just can't see Furcal moving over to play 2b for the Mets. He's only played 2b in 5 games in the last 5 years, he's got a cannon for an arm that will probably kill the 1b if he plays 2b, and I just don't see the Mets throwing a bunch of money at him when they are already paying quite a bit of money for Matsui. I'm just worried that Hendry is going to overpay for Furcal by a lot.

 

When is the last time that Hendry vastly overpaid for a big time free agent? Sure he slightly over pays on 1 to 3 year deals, but I can't think of a deal of 4 or more years that he has overpaid.

 

Chicago told Furcal's agent that we'd be "big players" in the "Furcal sweepstakes." That sounds like overpaying to me.

 

I think you're reading a little too much into that. All I take it to mean is that they have a strong interest. It's just wording.

 

That's not to say that I don't think Hendry will overpay for Furcal if we end up with him, though. I think whoever ends up with Furcal is going to be overpaying.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Rollins signed a 5/40 deal. Renteria a 4/40 deal. I think that's the range Furcal will get. My guess it will be 4/36 but could be as high as 4/40 or 5/48 or somewhere in that range.

 

If you think that's overpaying, then yes, I think we would overpay.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

I just can't see Furcal moving over to play 2b for the Mets. He's only played 2b in 5 games in the last 5 years, he's got a cannon for an arm that will probably kill the 1b if he plays 2b, and I just don't see the Mets throwing a bunch of money at him when they are already paying quite a bit of money for Matsui. I'm just worried that Hendry is going to overpay for Furcal by a lot.

 

When is the last time that Hendry vastly overpaid for a big time free agent? Sure he slightly over pays on 1 to 3 year deals, but I can't think of a deal of 4 or more years that he has overpaid.

 

Chicago told Furcal's agent that we'd be "big players" in the "Furcal sweepstakes." That sounds like overpaying to me.

 

I think you're reading a little too much into that. All I take it to mean is that they have a strong interest. It's just wording.

 

That's not to say that I don't think Hendry will overpay for Furcal if we end up with him, though. I think whoever ends up with Furcal is going to be overpaying.

 

For us to be involved the the Furcal sweepstakes, Atlanta will already have to be out of the bidding (4/36M probably) as Furcal has said he'd stay in Atlanta "if all things are equal." I don't think Hendry will vastly overpay, but 4/36 is still over fair market value for Furcal (looking at Rollin's contract). Furcal isn't a "must have," but he's going to get more than he's worth.