Being optimistic not realistic

[LuvChicagoSports]

Alright so let's just be optimistic for a bit and ignore the reality of things. Let's say that we got out and manage a way to land both Giles and Furcal. Also ignoring reality, Kerry Wood returns to 2003 playoff form and stays healthy for all of '06. Prior also is healthy all season, although I argue against those that say he is an injury concern. Running into Giles (albeit stupid) isn't an injury that could've been prevented in any way, same with the line drive off the elbow. So let's say all of this happens and Hendry makes a few other additions to help the club. I'd love to see Walker and Nomar stay, but let's just say they are gone. We'll say this opening day lineup looks like this.

 

1. Furcal-SS

2. Murton-LF

3. Lee-1b

4. Giles-RF

5. Ramirez-3b

6. Barrett-C

7. Patterson-CF

8. Cedeno-2b

 

Rotation

1. Prior

2. Wood

3. Zambrano

4. Maddux

5. Rusch, Williams, Hill, Guzman, whoever earns it or a FA addition.

 

Pen

Dempster-Closer

Ohman

Wuertz

Novoa

Howry

Van Buren

possibly another lefty

 

Bench

Hairston

Blanco

Sweeney

2 more solid guys

 

To me that would be a very solid team with the addition of 4 players in Giles, Furcal, Howry, and Sweeney. Obviously it is pretty far fetched because lets face it the likelyhood of Giles being in a Cubs uniform just isn't that great. I think finicially this could happen relatively easily. I know a lot of people are down on Furcal and only want Giles. I agree we need to worry about obp. much more as an organization that we do, but another big problem with this team is a lack of a leadoff hitter. Also I think Furcal would be a long term situation at the position and would look nice next to E-Pat in a few years. I'm not sold on Patterson at all, but to be blunt trading him now would be a mistake. His value has never been lower, so if he doesn't show any improvement you go ahead and get rid of him during the season, but you won't get any more by dealing him now than if you did then. Maybe he will get his head on straight and prove to at least be good enough to stick around til Pie is ready. I think this team would be MUCH improved from last year both defensively and offensively. Giles isn't a great fielder, but more than makes up for it with his bat. Murton will be fine in the field. Furcal is a stud with the glove and has a cannon. Cedeno has gold glove potential. Aramis well he's not good with the glove, but again makes up for it with his stick. D-Lee exceptional with both bat and glove.

 

Let me know what you guys think. I know it is dreaming, but hey we're Cubs fans and dreaming is ok. Especially when we have to watch a team in our city play for the championship. Maybe just maybe some of our dreams will finally come true.

Edited October 21, 2005 by LuvChicagoSports

[AAApittsburgh]

How is that lineup much better than what we had this past season? Nomar could outproduce Furcal. Walker can outproduce Cedeno. Giles is an upgrade, but not really big enough to outweigh the downgrades in the middle infield. Plus, Patterson is still in CF.

[CoolHandLuke]

How is that lineup much better than what we had this past season? Nomar could outproduce Furcal. Walker can outproduce Cedeno. Giles is an upgrade, but not really big enough to outweigh the downgrades in the middle infield. Plus, Patterson is still in CF.

 

Well for one thing our SS last year was Neifi for pretty much the entire season, not Nomar. Also Giles is a huge upgrade over Burnitz.

[AAApittsburgh]

How is that lineup much better than what we had this past season? Nomar could outproduce Furcal. Walker can outproduce Cedeno. Giles is an upgrade, but not really big enough to outweigh the downgrades in the middle infield. Plus, Patterson is still in CF.

 

Well for one thing our SS last year was Neifi for pretty much the entire season, not Nomar. Also Giles is a huge upgrade over Burnitz.

You'd still be making an unnecessary change to the middle infield. I don't believe Cedeno is anything special and he'd give us terrible production from 2B even after you factor in his defense. Keep the entire infield intact and upgrade RF and CF, and we have a better team than we did at the start of last season.

[NorthsideAvenger]

I don't believe Cedeno is anything special and he'd give us terrible production from 2B even after you factor in his defense. Keep the entire infield intact and upgrade RF and CF, and we have a better team than we did at the start of last season.

 

But to be honest, there are what.....2 LEGITIMATE "SPECIAL" SS in ALL of baseball: Tejada, and ARod (and I do still count ARod as a SS). So getting a special ss is not an easy thing for any team. Now I do see Cedeno being a multi-time AS, slightly more powerful version of Adam Everett. I really believe Cedeno is going to be one heck of a player.

[CubinNY]

Please, somebody tell why Furcal is an upgrade over Nomar or Cedeno given who much he will cost?

[Bull]

Please, somebody tell why Furcal is an upgrade over Nomar or Cedeno given who much he will cost?

 

I'm in favor of taking a (another) chance on Nomar.

 

But the argument for Furcal is that Nomar is injury prone, and Cedeno could be a AAAA player. So overpriced production is better than Neifi's anti-production.

[BigbadB]

Furcal is just an aggressive swing or two away from having a below average OBP. This team believes in an aggressive plate approach.

 

Will you still be excited about Furcal if he has a .325 OBP in the lead off spot, while earning 8m+ to do so?

 

And I don't think that team is "much" better than the team the Cubs had last year.

[David]

Please, somebody fix the spelling in the thread title, already... It's driving me NUTS... :lol:

 

As for Furcal...If he weren't so aggressive and were less of a threat to regress to a crappy OBP, I'd be more interested. At this point, the risk in signing Nomar is very low and the possible reward very high. If I knew they'd go to Cedeno and not Neifi in the event of a possible Nomar injury, I'd be all for it.

 

However, if it came down to Nomar with Neifi as a backup plan, vs. Furcal, I'd have to go with Rafael.

 

I just cannot take another season of Neifi Perez as our starting SS...

[mg420]

Please, somebody tell why Furcal is an upgrade over Nomar or Cedeno given who much he will cost?

 

I'm in favor of taking a (another) chance on Nomar.

 

But the argument for Furcal is that Nomar is injury prone, and Cedeno could be a AAAA player. So overpriced production is better than Neifi's anti-production.

 

so could murton but there is nothing to indicate that either of them are. if cedeno can play great d and hit .280 with 15 hr's and a good obp (he also has very good speed and might steal a few bases), i would be very satisfied with him playing ss.

[Bull]

Please, somebody tell why Furcal is an upgrade over Nomar or Cedeno given who much he will cost?

 

I'm in favor of taking a (another) chance on Nomar.

 

But the argument for Furcal is that Nomar is injury prone, and Cedeno could be a AAAA player. So overpriced production is better than Neifi's anti-production.

 

so could murton but there is nothing to indicate that either of them are. if cedeno can play great d and hit .280 with 15 hr's and a good obp (he also has very good speed and might steal a few bases), i would be very satisfied with him playing ss.

 

I didn't say I agree with it, I simply stated that was the argument.

You'll find that I seldom offer strong opinions. This tendancy makes me a very boring read.

 

But since you mentioned it....

 

No there's nothing to indicate that Cedeno is a AAAA player. Given the sample size there's little to suggest that he's not. He had limited playing time, and as much as I hate that he used it as an excuse not to play them, it is true that given a larger sample size, and more exposure to the league, Cedeno's numbers could plummet. Its been called the sophomore slump (see Williams, Jerome). The truth is that starting the season with Cedeno as a starter would be a risk.

 

A worthwhile risk? Perhaps. If Neifi is the other option, Cedeno is absolutely a worthwhile risk (Baker's Neifi love notwithstanding). If Furcal is the other option, perhaps Cedeno is not my guy.

[MPrior]

I agree we need to worry about obp. much more as an organization that we do, but another big problem with this team is a lack of a leadoff hitter.

 

Question: What's the single most important thing about your leadoff hitter, almost to the exclusion of all others?

 

Answer: OBP. Hands down. Speed is nice to have, but it's truly a secondary asset. So finding a leadoff hitter and addressing our OBP need are two sides of the same coin.

 

Furcal's OBP this year: .348 (career .348). Way better than Neifi, Macias, and Patterson, yes, but is he worth paying a lot of money to get rid of the middle infield that we already have?

 

Todd Walker's OBP this year: .355 (.348 career), with better AVG, slugging, and costs much much less.

Nomar's OBP: .320 this year (which is hardly a good indicator), .367 career. Obviously not a leadoff hitter, but still way outproduces Furcal. Also for much less, probably. So replacing Nomar with Furcal does not address our OBP problem (in fact, it makes it worse), and getting rid of Todd Walker takes away one of our best leadoff/#2 hitter options.

 

Signing Furcal is, at best, a lateral move that costs a lot of money. At worst, it's a steep dropoff in production.

 

And another question for you all: if our MI is Furcal and Cedeno next year, who do you think the backup will be? My guess is Neifi Perez. If Nomar and Walker are our MI, I think Cedeno gets the backup job, and Perez walks. The second option seems in every way to be a big upgrade.

[BigbadB]

I agree we need to worry about obp. much more as an organization that we do, but another big problem with this team is a lack of a leadoff hitter.

 

Question: What's the single most important thing about your leadoff hitter, almost to the exclusion of all others?

 

Answer: OBP. Hands down. Speed is nice to have, but it's truly a secondary asset. So finding a leadoff hitter and addressing our OBP need are two sides of the same coin.

 

Furcal's OBP this year: .348 (career .348). Way better than Neifi, Macias, and Patterson, yes, but is he worth paying a lot of money to get rid of the middle infield that we already have?

 

Todd Walker's OBP this year: .355 (.348 career), with better AVG, slugging, and costs much much less.

Nomar's OBP: .320 this year (which is hardly a good indicator), .367 career. Obviously not a leadoff hitter, but still way outproduces Furcal. Also for much less, probably. So replacing Nomar with Furcal does not address our OBP problem (in fact, it makes it worse), and getting rid of Todd Walker takes away one of our best leadoff/#2 hitter options.

 

Signing Furcal is, at best, a lateral move that costs a lot of money. At worst, it's a steep dropoff in production.

 

And another question for you all: if our MI is Furcal and Cedeno next year, who do you think the backup will be? My guess is Neifi Perez. If Nomar and Walker are our MI, I think Cedeno gets the backup job, and Perez walks. The second option seems in every way to be a big upgrade.

 

Very well done. Nomar does have a good career OBP, but his OBP is magnified by his AVG, rather than his ability to draw a walk. Because he isn't a good plate patience guy, he's better suited using that AVG to hit runners in, IMO. 5th or 6th is an ideal spot in the order for Nomar.

 

I think it's a waste to use Nomar at the top of the order. I'd rather put Murton there.

[MPrior]

Very well done. Nomar does have a good career OBP, but his OBP is magnified by his AVG, rather than his ability to draw a walk. Because he isn't a good plate patience guy, he's better suited using that AVG to hit runners in, IMO. 5th or 6th is an ideal spot in the order for Nomar.

 

I think it's a waste to use Nomar at the top of the order. I'd rather put Murton there.

 

I totally agree. I was just pointing out that he still has a better OBP than Furcal, so Furcal doesn't address our OBP needs, and that we have a guy in Todd Walker who could (if necessary) lead off with about the same effectiveness as Furcal. And I'm ALL about Murton in the 2 spot.

[Fanzones trumpet]

I agree we need to worry about obp. much more as an organization that we do, but another big problem with this team is a lack of a leadoff hitter.

 

Question: What's the single most important thing about your leadoff hitter, almost to the exclusion of all others?

 

Answer: OBP. Hands down. Speed is nice to have, but it's truly a secondary asset. So finding a leadoff hitter and addressing our OBP need are two sides of the same coin.

 

Furcal's OBP this year: .348 (career .348). Way better than Neifi, Macias, and Patterson, yes, but is he worth paying a lot of money to get rid of the middle infield that we already have?

 

Todd Walker's OBP this year: .355 (.348 career), with better AVG, slugging, and costs much much less.

Nomar's OBP: .320 this year (which is hardly a good indicator), .367 career. Obviously not a leadoff hitter, but still way outproduces Furcal. Also for much less, probably. So replacing Nomar with Furcal does not address our OBP problem (in fact, it makes it worse), and getting rid of Todd Walker takes away one of our best leadoff/#2 hitter options.

 

Signing Furcal is, at best, a lateral move that costs a lot of money. At worst, it's a steep dropoff in production.

 

And another question for you all: if our MI is Furcal and Cedeno next year, who do you think the backup will be? My guess is Neifi Perez. If Nomar and Walker are our MI, I think Cedeno gets the backup job, and Perez walks. The second option seems in every way to be a big upgrade.

 

It's not just about OBP; it should be also about defense at SS and durability. So the real question is whether you (1) spend big bucks for an excellent and durable all-around player in his prime(Furcal), (2) take your your chances with a medium priced, injury-prone defensive liability (Garciappara), or (3) go with a cheap, talented kid who may not give you much offense next year. I'm not sure about choosing between 1 and 3, but I'd definitely avoid #2.

[BigbadB]

I agree we need to worry about obp. much more as an organization that we do, but another big problem with this team is a lack of a leadoff hitter.

 

Question: What's the single most important thing about your leadoff hitter, almost to the exclusion of all others?

 

Answer: OBP. Hands down. Speed is nice to have, but it's truly a secondary asset. So finding a leadoff hitter and addressing our OBP need are two sides of the same coin.

 

Furcal's OBP this year: .348 (career .348). Way better than Neifi, Macias, and Patterson, yes, but is he worth paying a lot of money to get rid of the middle infield that we already have?

 

Todd Walker's OBP this year: .355 (.348 career), with better AVG, slugging, and costs much much less.

Nomar's OBP: .320 this year (which is hardly a good indicator), .367 career. Obviously not a leadoff hitter, but still way outproduces Furcal. Also for much less, probably. So replacing Nomar with Furcal does not address our OBP problem (in fact, it makes it worse), and getting rid of Todd Walker takes away one of our best leadoff/#2 hitter options.

 

Signing Furcal is, at best, a lateral move that costs a lot of money. At worst, it's a steep dropoff in production.

 

And another question for you all: if our MI is Furcal and Cedeno next year, who do you think the backup will be? My guess is Neifi Perez. If Nomar and Walker are our MI, I think Cedeno gets the backup job, and Perez walks. The second option seems in every way to be a big upgrade.

 

It's not just about OBP; it should be also about defense at SS and durability. So the real question is whether you (1) spend big bucks for an excellent and durable all-around player in his prime(Furcal), (2) take your your chances with a medium priced, injury-prone defensive liability (Garciappara), or (3) go with a cheap, talented kid who may not give you much offense next year. I'm not sure about choosing between 1 and 3, but I'd definitely avoid #2.

 

You can't necessarily frame it like this, though. Furcal is not for the Cubs taking. There are 29 other teams that might bid on his services. He may not even become available if the Braves decide to keep him. If that happens, you just took option #1 off the board.

 

Cedeno, I'm assuming, is the cheap, talented kid. He's already ours. He's under contract for cheap. We don't have to go out and get him. Doesn't he make a nice replacement if the medium priced, injury prone, defensive liability gets injured? I say yes. He's also a nice late inning defensive replacement. He also spells Nomar frequently to keep Nomar fresh. Nomar is currently employed by the Cubs until the Cubs decide they don't want him anymore. Once they make that decision (pursuing Furcal would all it would really take) and Nomar's as good as gone.

 

Now, Furcal is not an option, Nomar leaves since the Cubs obviously don't feel the need to reward Nomar's loyalty in wanting to stay, and all you have is a unproven, young player who Dusty wouldn't hesitate to bench for Neifi Perez, who would be brought back once it was obvious they have no shot at Furcal or Nomar.

 

Dusty is the manager of this team.

 

It may not work out this way, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did.

[Fanzones trumpet]

I agree we need to worry about obp. much more as an organization that we do, but another big problem with this team is a lack of a leadoff hitter.

 

Question: What's the single most important thing about your leadoff hitter, almost to the exclusion of all others?

 

Answer: OBP. Hands down. Speed is nice to have, but it's truly a secondary asset. So finding a leadoff hitter and addressing our OBP need are two sides of the same coin.

 

Furcal's OBP this year: .348 (career .348). Way better than Neifi, Macias, and Patterson, yes, but is he worth paying a lot of money to get rid of the middle infield that we already have?

 

Todd Walker's OBP this year: .355 (.348 career), with better AVG, slugging, and costs much much less.

Nomar's OBP: .320 this year (which is hardly a good indicator), .367 career. Obviously not a leadoff hitter, but still way outproduces Furcal. Also for much less, probably. So replacing Nomar with Furcal does not address our OBP problem (in fact, it makes it worse), and getting rid of Todd Walker takes away one of our best leadoff/#2 hitter options.

 

Signing Furcal is, at best, a lateral move that costs a lot of money. At worst, it's a steep dropoff in production.

 

And another question for you all: if our MI is Furcal and Cedeno next year, who do you think the backup will be? My guess is Neifi Perez. If Nomar and Walker are our MI, I think Cedeno gets the backup job, and Perez walks. The second option seems in every way to be a big upgrade.

 

It's not just about OBP; it should be also about defense at SS and durability. So the real question is whether you (1) spend big bucks for an excellent and durable all-around player in his prime(Furcal), (2) take your your chances with a medium priced, injury-prone defensive liability (Garciappara), or (3) go with a cheap, talented kid who may not give you much offense next year. I'm not sure about choosing between 1 and 3, but I'd definitely avoid #2.

 

You can't necessarily frame it like this, though. Furcal is not for the Cubs taking. There are 29 other teams that might bid on his services. He may not even become available if the Braves decide to keep him. If that happens, you just took option #1 off the board.

 

Cedeno, I'm assuming, is the cheap, talented kid. He's already ours. He's under contract for cheap. We don't have to go out and get him. Doesn't he make a nice replacement if the medium priced, injury prone, defensive liability gets injured? I say yes. He's also a nice late inning defensive replacement. He also spells Nomar frequently to keep Nomar fresh. Nomar is currently employed by the Cubs until the Cubs decide they don't want him anymore. Once they make that decision (pursuing Furcal would all it would really take) and Nomar's as good as gone.

 

Now, Furcal is not an option, Nomar leaves since the Cubs obviously don't feel the need to reward Nomar's loyalty in wanting to stay, and all you have is a unproven, young player who Dusty wouldn't hesitate to bench for Neifi Perez, who would be brought back once it was obvious they have no shot at Furcal or Nomar.

 

Dusty is the manager of this team.

 

It may not work out this way, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did.

 

There are very few teams with money to spend who need a SS. So if the Braves don't resign him, the Cubs should have the inside track.

 

I don't want Garciappara back as a SS; I don't believe he can play it an acceptable level anymore. As far as Perez is concerned, I'm hopeful that some team will sign him to play everyday. If not, and Hendry believes Cedeno is the real deal, then he should take the decision out of Baker's hands by not re-signing him.

[Fred Hornkohl]

When the CUBS finished up their season with that last series in Houston, I was out of town, so I caught the games on XM radio with Milo Hamilton and Alan Ashby. Nomar was starting at third base in the absence of Ramirez, if you recall. Hamilton and Ashby were so convinced of Nomar's inability to play shortstop anymore, that they made a point of commenting on it at least once in each of the games. I don't know where they got this from... maybe just their own opinion, so I share it here for what it's worth.

[LuvChicagoSports]

Look I know a lot of people are down on Furcal, but my argument isn't as much for him as it is against Nomar. We took a major risk in trading for a hurt Garciaparra when we did. Resigning him this year was a bigger risk, and it proved to be a mistake. He came back and hit the ball well in a month when it didn't make a difference at all. I know the guy was great in his prime, but he is past his prime and is a liability. Nomar is a good guy, I just don't want to depend on him as the everyday SS. I would also rather have good to great defense over Nomar's below average defense. Furcal is an easy target.

 

Also, Giles as an upgrade at obp. is much different than a leadoff hitter. Leading off is different that just having an increased obp. Granted obp. should be the major stat when looking at leadoff hitters, other things should be taken into consideration. No he doesn't HAVE to be a speedy player with the ability to disrupt things while on the basebaths, but that is ceartainly a good thing. Also, at the leadoff spot you want a guy who is able to fight off pitches and force the opposing pitcher to show his stuff early in games. A power hitter with good obp. is not necessarily the same type of hitter. Giles good obp. is a product of pitchers fearing his potent bat and pitching carefully while Giles doesn't bite and earns a walk. Most pitchers go after leadoff hitters.

 

Look I believe this team is MUCH better if Wood and Prior remain healthy for the whole season. I really believe that it is that simple. Starting pitching wins games period. History of baseball has proven that over and over again. That is what I based my opinion of the team being much better on. And you can't say Furcal is a downgrade, because our SS last season was Neifi not Nomar. You can say it wasn't supposed to be that way, but Neifi was kept around because Hendry knew he needed a guy that could play every day because it wasn't unlikely that Nomar would be injured.

[BigbadB]

I have never said I'm down with Furcal. Not once. I think he's a very solid SS. However, he is not currently in the Cubs stable and there is no guarantee he will be.

 

The Cubs seemed pretty intent on getting Beltran last year and everyone here was loving the idea of it. But, when Beltran's price soar as high as it did, was everyone still under the impression that they should outbid the ridiculous bids that were being made? No.

 

That very well could happen with Furcal. He is not only a good lead off hitter, but he's also playing a position that is difficult, and there is little else on the market that compares.

 

As far as leading off, I really don't care that much about speed. Walker is a nice lead off option. His OBP is better than Furcal's and Walker won't get caught stealing as often as Furcal will, which is another boost to Walker's OBP in comparison to Furcal's. Derek Jeter led off for the Yankees this year and his OBP was .391. He scored 119 runs. He had 712 plate appearances as a lead off hitter. As a team, the Yankees had 767 plate appearances. The better OBP a team has, the more opportunities the rest of the team has to make something good happen with someone on base. That's why....

 

The Cubs need to improve OBP throughout the line up, not just lead off. A team with a 100m payroll has no excuse for putting sub .300 OBP's anywhere in the line up. NO EXCUSE!

 

The Yankees pitching staff was not good this year. Their offense carried them. Their .350+ OBP got them where they were this year. Obviously, a combination of good offense and good pitching is where you want to be. I'd like to see the pitching improve, and it probably will with the guys they currently have. But, there are glaring holes on the offense. I certainly do not want to see them sacrifice offense for defense. Poor defense will cost you a game here and there, but bad offense can cost you games all year.

[NewUserName]

A couple of points I would like to make on this subject

 

1. Frucal is probably going to make Renteria money. 8-10 mill for 4 to 5 years. For what he does bring to the table this does seem overpriced. Like most big time free-agents his best value years are before he becomes a free-agent. He is a good but not great lead-off man. He didnt even lead his team in runs scored. So are we sure we want to tie up 10% of our payroll on a slightly above average SS/lead off man.

 

2. Ronny Cedeno seems to be capable of manning SS for alot less. Will he keep his OBP at 350? Who Knows. The same could have been said about Frucal when he was a rookie. Actually Frucal had his career high OBP as a rookie. I am not saying that Cedeno will but I am pretty sure that he could provide us with as good/but probably better production as we had last year. Have another year of development.(yes most players still need to develop when they come to the major leagues) Be alot cheaper. Than in 2 years could be as good as Frucal and alot cheaper. Saving us money to go after positions where we are certain we need an upgrade. If you had 100 thousand dollars would you spend it on a new house if the house you already had was still good. Better yet the house you have is in a neighborhood that property values may be increasing in the next couple of years. If Cedeno doesnt work out there will be SSs available in a couple of years who are as good as Frucal. I would just hate to spend the money on Frucal when we may already have that SS.

 

3. Giles is potentially a major FA bust. He is 35 and will probably get a 3 to 4 year deal. Again do we want to give 10% of our payroll to a guy who may be done in a couple of years. See Jim Thome.

 

4. I feel no matter what the Cubs do this offseason the success of the Cubs next season is still going to fall on how well Prior and Wood do. I think Hendry will do a better job this offseason of preparing for a team that doesnt have these two healthy all year but we will not win a WS without these two guys being very good. If we add every top FA this year we will still not win a WS without them. This is in no way saying they shouldnt try to upgrade RF,SS,CF,2B and pitching. I am just saying that it should be done wisely. Do not go after over hyped(generally overpaid)but guys who can play and add good value.