Furcal

[CuseCubFan69]

I think Furcal helps Marcus Giles greatly. Pitchers don't only have to concentrate on getting Giles out, but also have to concentrate on holding Furcal to first base.

 

That's a popular theory, but to my knowledge no objective analysis actually backs it up.

 

I think if a pitcher throws over to first he's thinking about he runner and they would do so if a Furcal type is on first. If you have ARam on first I see the pitcher giving all his time to the batter.

[goonys evil twin]

I think Furcal helps Marcus Giles greatly. Pitchers don't only have to concentrate on getting Giles out, but also have to concentrate on holding Furcal to first base.

 

That's a popular theory, but to my knowledge no objective analysis actually backs it up.

 

I think if a pitcher throws over to first he's thinking about he runner and they would do so if a Furcal type is on first. If you have ARam on first I see the pitcher giving all his time to the batter.

 

Like I said, that's a popular theory, but to my knowledge no objective analysis actually backs it up. Simply thinking about the runner doesn't necessarily make it easier for the hitter. It's similar to the theory of "protection" for a hitter. It makes sense on paper, but it practice it hasn't really been proven to exist.

[CubfaninCA]

I think Furcal helps Marcus Giles greatly. Pitchers don't only have to concentrate on getting Giles out, but also have to concentrate on holding Furcal to first base.

 

That's a popular theory, but to my knowledge no objective analysis actually backs it up.

 

Just because you can't quantify something doesn't mean it should be disregarded. Probably a third of baseball is intangibles.

[goonys evil twin]

I'm sure if we don't get some big name SS like Furcal Dusty will lobby hard to have Neifi start in 2006. Hendry seems to dislike confrontation so I think there's a good chance we'll see Neifi return.

 

Nightmare scenario of course. But in my opinion, it's not going to happen. I think Jim made it somewhat clear that he was appreciative of what Neifi did AS A FILL-IN. I do not believe he will consider Neifi for the starter, unless they fill out the rest of the roster to productivity capacity.

[CuseCubFan69]

I think Furcal helps Marcus Giles greatly. Pitchers don't only have to concentrate on getting Giles out, but also have to concentrate on holding Furcal to first base.

 

That's a popular theory, but to my knowledge no objective analysis actually backs it up.

 

I think if a pitcher throws over to first he's thinking about he runner and they would do so if a Furcal type is on first. If you have ARam on first I see the pitcher giving all his time to the batter.

 

Like I said, that's a popular theory, but to my knowledge no objective analysis actually backs it up. Simply thinking about the runner doesn't necessarily make it easier for the hitter. It's similar to the theory of "protection" for a hitter. It makes sense on paper, but it practice it hasn't really been proven to exist.

 

I've talked to major league ptichers who have said it bothers them to have a fast basestealer on first. That shows that they are not concentrating on the batter as much as they should. That's enough for me.

[goonys evil twin]

I think Furcal helps Marcus Giles greatly. Pitchers don't only have to concentrate on getting Giles out, but also have to concentrate on holding Furcal to first base.

 

That's a popular theory, but to my knowledge no objective analysis actually backs it up.

 

Just because you can't quantify something doesn't mean it should be disregarded. Probably a third of baseball is intangibles.

 

 

:lol:

 

Yeah, I don't prescribe to such notions.

[TB_11]

i really don't want to see Furcal as a Cub. his obp is cheaply replaceable. Todd Walker anyone? ...as far as Walker not stealing goes, I'd rather not have my leadoff hitter gifting the other team an out (and therefore a run).

 

Furcal's D is easily replaceable as well...by Cedeno.

 

I can't fathom a reason we need Furcal. If we get him it will be b/c he is a "big name FA" and not b/c it will actually help the team.

 

Furcal's speed will create more runs than Walker. Furcal's more likely to score from first on a double, and to score from second on a hard hit single or shallowly hit flyball to the outfield.

 

That's just a few examples of how Furcal's speed puts more pressure on the defense.

 

Fair points. I think the Walker supporters here would say the extra performance/speed won't be worth the additional money it would take to upgrade from Furcal to Walker in the lineup.

[goonys evil twin]

I've talked to major league ptichers who have said it bothers them to have a fast basestealer on first. That shows that they are not concentrating on the batter as much as they should. That's enough for me.

 

I've listened to enough former pitchers BS about their past so much not to take their theories seriously.

 

I don't doubt that pitchers think about the runner more. And I don't doubt that people think it has an affect. What I do doubt is that there is a substantial affect on the at-bats, over time. Just like the theory that Furcal is worth more than Walker because he can score from first more often, I'm sure there are specific cases where it's helped a batter to have a speedy guy on base in front of them. But I do not know that there is a substantial affect. And neither do you, no matter who told you what.

[frostwyrm]

I'm sure if we don't get some big name SS like Furcal Dusty will lobby hard to have Neifi start in 2006. Hendry seems to dislike confrontation so I think there's a good chance we'll see Neifi return.

 

Nightmare scenario of course. But in my opinion, it's not going to happen. I think Jim made it somewhat clear that he was appreciative of what Neifi did AS A FILL-IN. I do not believe he will consider Neifi for the starter, unless they fill out the rest of the roster to productivity capacity.

 

I'm not so sure. Dusty was absolutely thrilled with Neifi's "contribution" this year and absent Furcal I'd bet Hendry would cave and give Dusty what he wants(more Neifi). Personally I don't think Furcal will be worth what he's going to get, but I'm inclined to believe one reason Hendry will get in the Furcal bidding is to avoid an ugly fight with Dusty over resigning Neifi.

[CuseCubFan69]

I've talked to major league ptichers who have said it bothers them to have a fast basestealer on first. That shows that they are not concentrating on the batter as much as they should. That's enough for me.

 

I've listened to enough former pitchers BS about their past so much not to take their theories seriously.

 

I don't doubt that pitchers think about the runner more. And I don't doubt that people think it has an affect. What I do doubt is that there is a substantial affect on the at-bats, over time. Just like the theory that Furcal is worth more than Walker because he can score from first more often, I'm sure there are specific cases where it's helped a batter to have a speedy guy on base in front of them. But I do not know that there is a substantial affect. And neither do you, no matter who told you what.

 

Substantial....I don't know but it does have an effect. It has a huge effect at my level and it has to at the highest level...not at the same effect, but an impact. I also think the more the pressure the situation the more the effect.

 

Plus...I've been agreeing with you all day and I just can't accept doing that.

[YearofDaCubs]

I've talked to major league ptichers who have said it bothers them to have a fast basestealer on first. That shows that they are not concentrating on the batter as much as they should. That's enough for me.

 

I've listened to enough former pitchers BS about their past so much not to take their theories seriously.

 

I don't doubt that pitchers think about the runner more. And I don't doubt that people think it has an affect. What I do doubt is that there is a substantial affect on the at-bats, over time. Just like the theory that Furcal is worth more than Walker because he can score from first more often, I'm sure there are specific cases where it's helped a batter to have a speedy guy on base in front of them. But I do not know that there is a substantial affect. And neither do you, no matter who told you what.

 

Substantial....I don't know but it does have an effect. It has a huge effect at my level and it has to at the highest level...not at the same effect, but an impact. I also think the more the pressure the situation the more the effect.

 

Plus...I've been agreeing with you all day and I just can't accept doing that.

2004 playoffs Red Sox vs Yankees. Dave Roberts on base Rivera pitching. need I say more? C;early, having a burner on base does make a difference in the game.

[goonys evil twin]

Plus...I've been agreeing with you all day and I just can't accept doing that.

 

Understandable, my boss said the same thing.

[dalgreen]

I'm sure if we don't get some big name SS like Furcal Dusty will lobby hard to have Neifi start in 2006. Hendry seems to dislike confrontation so I think there's a good chance we'll see Neifi return.

 

Nightmare scenario of course. But in my opinion, it's not going to happen. I think Jim made it somewhat clear that he was appreciative of what Neifi did AS A FILL-IN. I do not believe he will consider Neifi for the starter, unless they fill out the rest of the roster to productivity capacity.

 

I'm not so sure. Dusty was absolutely thrilled with Neifi's "contribution" this year and absent Furcal I'd bet Hendry would cave and give Dusty what he wants(more Neifi). Personally I don't think Furcal will be worth what he's going to get, but I'm inclined to believe one reason Hendry will get in the Furcal bidding is to avoid an ugly fight with Dusty over resigning Neifi.

 

What is it that makes you think Hendry doesn't want these types of players like Perez and Macias, but just "gives in" to Dusty? For crying out loud, he was after Jeromy Burnitz back in 2003 when Patterson got hurt.

[goonys evil twin]

2004 playoffs Red Sox vs Yankees. Dave Roberts on base Rivera pitching. need I say more? C;early, having a burner on base does make a difference in the game.

 

I said there are instances where it's happened. I just don't think it's wise to make personel decisions based on specific circumstances that might happen in the future. It was the stolen base that mattered more than anything. And it wasn't like Rivera was great other than that at bat. He had a pretty good string of blowing it in the past few postseasons, especially against the Red Sox. Remember, Millar got on 1st in order for Roberts to even get to 2nd. That was the 2nd baserunner Rivera allowed that game. And Mueller was already hitting like .400 against Mariano going into that at bat. The romantics like to say that Roberts got in Mo's head, but that was no sure save to begin with.

[CubfaninCA]

I've talked to major league ptichers who have said it bothers them to have a fast basestealer on first. That shows that they are not concentrating on the batter as much as they should. That's enough for me.

 

I've listened to enough former pitchers BS about their past so much not to take their theories seriously.

 

I don't doubt that pitchers think about the runner more. And I don't doubt that people think it has an affect. What I do doubt is that there is a substantial affect on the at-bats, over time. Just like the theory that Furcal is worth more than Walker because he can score from first more often, I'm sure there are specific cases where it's helped a batter to have a speedy guy on base in front of them. But I do not know that there is a substantial affect. And neither do you, no matter who told you what.

 

Substantial....I don't know but it does have an effect. It has a huge effect at my level and it has to at the highest level...not at the same effect, but an impact. I also think the more the pressure the situation the more the effect.

 

Plus...I've been agreeing with you all day and I just can't accept doing that.

 

Did you play college?? Minor leagues??

 

Basically it throws some pitchers off rhythm correct?? That seems to be pretty big. Of course, it doesn't bother a guy like Petitte, who iirc is one of the best @ holding runners on. However, Furcal and Lofton could drive some pitchers up the wall. I remember those old CArdinal teams w/ Coleman and Ozzie. They cause some havoc. Also, I still remember all the trouble Pierre and Castillo caused in 2003.

 

Altogether, additional speed would make the Cubs a better situational team.

[frostwyrm]

I'm sure if we don't get some big name SS like Furcal Dusty will lobby hard to have Neifi start in 2006. Hendry seems to dislike confrontation so I think there's a good chance we'll see Neifi return.

 

Nightmare scenario of course. But in my opinion, it's not going to happen. I think Jim made it somewhat clear that he was appreciative of what Neifi did AS A FILL-IN. I do not believe he will consider Neifi for the starter, unless they fill out the rest of the roster to productivity capacity.

 

I'm not so sure. Dusty was absolutely thrilled with Neifi's "contribution" this year and absent Furcal I'd bet Hendry would cave and give Dusty what he wants(more Neifi). Personally I don't think Furcal will be worth what he's going to get, but I'm inclined to believe one reason Hendry will get in the Furcal bidding is to avoid an ugly fight with Dusty over resigning Neifi.

 

What is it that makes you think Hendry doesn't want these types of players like Perez and Macias, but just "gives in" to Dusty? For crying out loud, he was after Jeromy Burnitz back in 2003 when Patterson got hurt.

 

No doubt Hendry overvalues Perez/Macias types, but I really doubt he wants Neifi as next year's opening day starter at SS. Baker, on the hand, would be perfectly comfortable with that, which is why I believe if we don't get a top-tier veteran SS Neifi probably comes back.

[CubfaninCA]

2004 playoffs Red Sox vs Yankees. Dave Roberts on base Rivera pitching. need I say more? C;early, having a burner on base does make a difference in the game.

 

I said there are instances where it's happened. I just don't think it's wise to make personel decisions based on specific circumstances that might happen in the future. It was the stolen base that mattered more than anything. And it wasn't like Rivera was great other than that at bat. He had a pretty good string of blowing it in the past few postseasons, especially against the Red Sox. Remember, Millar got on 1st in order for Roberts to even get to 2nd. That was the 2nd baserunner Rivera allowed that game. And Mueller was already hitting like .400 against Mariano going into that at bat. The romantics like to say that Roberts got in Mo's head, but that was no sure save to begin with.

 

The romantics... I like that. :D

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

I think the figure for having a man on second (getting on first and stealing second) with no outs is 1.1 runs (on the average team). When you get caught stealing you effectively cost your team 1.1 runs (obviously the numbers change for 1 and 2 out cases).

 

Stealing doesn't give you enough runs (on average) to cover the times you are caught stealing. You might as well play station to station baseball, and if you do steal, you'd better do it with upwards of 80% to break even (it's somewhere around 80%, IIRC).

[Tim]

Okay, so if having Furcal on first helps Giles so much, he obviously must have much better splits with runners on base, right? Well, not so much. His OPS actually goes down with runners on base.

 

None on: .296/.353/.482/.835 (328 ABs)

Runners on: .285/.379/.434/.813 (249 ABs)

 

But that's all runners on all bases. Surely, the at bats he had with a runner on first would be more indicative of the effect Furcal would have, right? Again, not so much.

 

On First: .278/.355/.361/.716 (108 ABs)

 

Now, I recognize that not all of those 108 at bats with a runner on first were with Furcal. But surely, enough of them were that if having Furcal on first base actually helped Giles, it would show up in the numbers.

 

It actually looks like Furcal on first base hurts Marcus quite a bit.

 

But don't let data get in the way of a good theory.

[CubfaninCA]

I think the figure for having a man on second (getting on first and stealing second) with no outs is 1.1 runs (on the average team). When you get caught stealing you effectively cost your team 1.1 runs (obviously the numbers change for 1 and 2 out cases).

 

Stealing doesn't give you enough runs (on average) to cover the times you are caught stealing. You might as well play station to station baseball, and if you do steal, you'd better do it with upwards of 80% to break even (it's somewhere around 80%, IIRC).

 

So is the economist/mathmetician argument ~ speed's not useful??

[goonys evil twin]

I think the figure for having a man on second (getting on first and stealing second) with no outs is 1.1 runs (on the average team). When you get caught stealing you effectively cost your team 1.1 runs (obviously the numbers change for 1 and 2 out cases).

 

Stealing doesn't give you enough runs (on average) to cover the times you are caught stealing. You might as well play station to station baseball, and if you do steal, you'd better do it with upwards of 80% to break even (it's somewhere around 80%, IIRC).

 

So is the economist/mathmetician argument ~ speed's not useful??

 

That's not it at all.

 

Attempting to steal bases is not useful unless you are incredibly good at it.

[JeffH]

Having Furcal around to lead off will keep Crusty from trying to put square peg Felix Pie into the round hole of the #1 spot in the batting order.

[CubfaninCA]

Okay, so if having Furcal on first helps Giles so much, he obviously must have much better splits with runners on base, right? Well, not so much. His OPS actually goes down with runners on base.

 

None on: .296/.353/.482/.835 (328 ABs)

Runners on: .285/.379/.434/.813 (249 ABs)

 

But that's all runners on all bases. Surely, the at bats he had with a runner on first would be more indicative of the effect Furcal would have, right? Again, not so much.

 

On First: .278/.355/.361/.716 (108 ABs)

 

Now, I recognize that not all of those 108 at bats with a runner on first were with Furcal. But surely, enough of them were that if having Furcal on first base actually helped Giles, it would show up in the numbers.

 

It actually looks like Furcal on first base hurts Marcus quite a bit.

 

But don't let data get in the way of a good theory.

 

It could have been worse... Perhaps Furcal hits some pitcher's better than Giles??

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

I think the figure for having a man on second (getting on first and stealing second) with no outs is 1.1 runs (on the average team). When you get caught stealing you effectively cost your team 1.1 runs (obviously the numbers change for 1 and 2 out cases).

 

Stealing doesn't give you enough runs (on average) to cover the times you are caught stealing. You might as well play station to station baseball, and if you do steal, you'd better do it with upwards of 80% to break even (it's somewhere around 80%, IIRC).

 

So is the economist/mathmetician argument ~ speed's not useful??

 

That's not it at all.

 

Attempting to steal bases is not useful unless you are incredibly good at it.

 

speed is useful, but it's overrated on the basepaths.

[soapy]

Okay, so if having Furcal on first helps Giles so much, he obviously must have much better splits with runners on base, right? Well, not so much. His OPS actually goes down with runners on base.

 

None on: .296/.353/.482/.835 (328 ABs)

Runners on: .285/.379/.434/.813 (249 ABs)

 

But that's all runners on all bases. Surely, the at bats he had with a runner on first would be more indicative of the effect Furcal would have, right? Again, not so much.

 

On First: .278/.355/.361/.716 (108 ABs)

 

Now, I recognize that not all of those 108 at bats with a runner on first were with Furcal. But surely, enough of them were that if having Furcal on first base actually helped Giles, it would show up in the numbers.

 

It actually looks like Furcal on first base hurts Marcus quite a bit.

 

But don't let data get in the way of a good theory.

 

Yeah, but Tim, how much have you actually seen him play?? These are just random numbers!

 

 

:wink: