Dempster's Sticking Around For 3 More Years

[RockTheIvy]

We're not going to see '05 Dempster for a full season next year (well, the odds are against it). Why don't/didn't we spend the money to get an elite (and proven) closer?

 

I disagree with the concept that a "proven" closer exists outside of Rivera. There are many of these "elite" pitchers that all of some question marks to them. I think that a closer is more made then purchased. I can't think of one successful closer that has been acquired on the FA market that has been worth their contract. Look at our history as a prime example. Our most successful closers are the ones that we didn't sign in that role. I think that developing a closer is much more important and I believe that Dempster has been an example of that development. Will he be successful for 3 years in that role? I hope so. If not, then it is important to continue to develop a closer as a setup guy, ala Dotel & Lidge in Houston while Wagner was there and Rivera while Wetteland was there. Successful closer stories come from being thrown into the fire or being taught specificall for that role. I believe that Dempster has an opportunity to become a "Percvial/Benitez" type of closer. He will have his ups and downs but overall be effective.

 

P.S. I wouldn't count on having Novoa in the pen but I would count on Rusch being there.

 

K-Rod, Wagner, Gagne- They exist, but just like everyone else, they can screw it up.

[CubsWin]

There's a rumor that Minnesota would trade J.C. Romero, Jesse Crain, or Juan Rincon for some offense.

How good of a rumor? What's the source?

 

I ask because I would gladly trade some offense for Jesse Crain.

[delroy lindo]

Ryan seems to measure up pretty darn well:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=52

[RockTheIvy]

There's a rumor that Minnesota would trade J.C. Romero, Jesse Crain, or Juan Rincon for some offense.

How good of a rumor? What's the source?

 

I ask because I would gladly trade some offense for Jesse Crain.

 

Any clue what the deal is with his K rate? The last time I saw a K rate that low was Kolb last year, and well, the wheels kinda fell off his following year.

[CubsWin]

There's a rumor that Minnesota would trade J.C. Romero, Jesse Crain, or Juan Rincon for some offense.

How good of a rumor? What's the source?

 

I ask because I would gladly trade some offense for Jesse Crain.

 

Any clue what the deal is with his K rate? The last time I saw a K rate that low was Kolb last year, and well, the wheels kinda fell off his following year.

Speaking of Kolb reminds me just how many bullets the Cubs dodged last year by not acquiring Kolb, Benitez or Percival. If the Cubs had successfully traded for Kolb and he blew up like that, almost everyone on this board would have blamed somebody for ruining him or not being able to turn him around. Yet, the God of pitching coaches, Leo Mazzone, couldn't do it either. It just goes to show, our analysis of who to blame, isn't always accurate.

 

Back on topic, I can't explain Kolb's blow-up at all. But I don't think there is much evidence to suggest that just because someone shares one characteristic with Danny Kolb, a low strikeout rate, that he will befall the same fate as him. It is true that both Kolb and Crain don't strikeout a lot of guys. Whether a low strikeout rate is a clear portent for failure in the future is a whole different matter. Let's look deeper.

 

Kolb has never been much of a strikeout guy on any level of baseball. From rookie-ball all the way to the majors, he has averaged less than a K per inning. He never even came close. His ERA has also been consistently average to above average. At rookie level, he had his best ERA at 2.20. In A-ball, it was 3.77, and at AA it was 4.14. In AAA, it was 2.94. His career ERA in the majors is 4.17. Maybe, Kolb is just an up and down, inconsistent pitcher from year-to-year and '05 was one of his down years while '03 and '04 were both up years. Whatever the reason, his history shows a pattern of inconsistency with his norm being that he is an average to slightly above average pitcher. I think he is better than '05 suggests and now would be the time to trade for him, keeping in mind, of course, that he isn't normally as good as he looked in '03 and '04.

 

Crain's history is quite different. He did average more than a K per inning until coming to the majors. It then fell off quite a bit, but his effectiveness did not. Crain has been getting guys out at every level. I'm not aware of his injury history. I don't think he has one. But I do know that he has been used exclusively as a reliever throughout his minor and major league careers. so, there shouldn't be a lot of wear and tear on his arm. He is only 24. Scouting reports have his fastball in the mid-90s with the ability to touch 100 and a wicked slider that was described as "unfair". He was the 2nd round pick of the Twins in the 2002 draft and between rookie and A-ball that year, he appeared in 18 games, pitching 27 innings and finishing with an ERA of 1.00. In '03, he started in High A, pitched 19 innings before being promoted to AA where he pitched 39 innings finishing with a combined ERA of 1.40. He finished '03 at AAA Rochester posting a 3.12 ERA. Before being brought up near the end of '04, he pitched 50 innings at Rochester compiling a 2.49 ERA. Since reaching the majors, nothing has changed except his K rate has dropped. His career ERA currently stands at 2.29.

 

That's both player's histories in a nutshell. What do you think?

Edited October 2, 2005 by CubsWin

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Another take on Crain from a little earlier in the year.

 

Link

[RockTheIvy]

There's a rumor that Minnesota would trade J.C. Romero, Jesse Crain, or Juan Rincon for some offense.

How good of a rumor? What's the source?

 

I ask because I would gladly trade some offense for Jesse Crain.

 

Any clue what the deal is with his K rate? The last time I saw a K rate that low was Kolb last year, and well, the wheels kinda fell off his following year.

Speaking of Kolb reminds me just how many bullets the Cubs dodged last year by not acquiring Kolb, Benitez or Percival. If the Cubs had successfully traded for Kolb and he blew up like that, almost everyone on this board would have blamed somebody for ruining him or not being able to turn him around. Yet, the God of pitching coaches, Leo Mazzone, couldn't do it either. It just goes to show, our analysis of who to blame, isn't always accurate.

 

Back on topic, I can't explain Kolb's blow-up at all. But I don't think there is much evidence to suggest that just because someone shares one characteristic with Danny Kolb, a low strikeout rate, that he will befall the same fate as him. It is true that both Kolb and Crain don't strikeout a lot of guys. Whether a low strikeout rate is a clear portent for failure in the future is a whole different matter. Let's look deeper.

 

Kolb has never been much of a strikeout guy on any level of baseball. From rookie-ball all the way to the majors, he has averaged less than a K per inning. He never even come close. His ERA has also been consistently average to above average. At rookie level, he had his best ERA at 2.20. In A-ball, it was 3.77, and at AA it was 4.14. In AAA, it was 2.94. His career ERA in the majors is 4.17. Maybe, Kolb is just an up and down, inconsistent pitcher from year-to-year and '05 was one of his down years while '03 and '04 were both up years. Whatever the reason, his history shows a pattern of inconsistency with his norm being that he is an average to slightly above average pitcher. I think he is better than '05 suggests and now would be the time to trade for him, keeping in mind, of course, that he isn't normally as good as he looked in '03 and '04.

 

Crain's history is quite different. He did average more than a K per inning until coming to the majors. It then fell off quite a bit, but his effectiveness did not. Crain has been getting guys out at every level. I'm not aware of his injury history. I don't think he has one. But I do know that he has been used exclusively as a reliever throughout his minor and major league careers. so, there shouldn't be a lot of wear and tear on his arm. He is only 24. Scouting reports have his fastball in the mid-90s with the ability to touch 100 and a wicked slider that was described as "unfair". He was the 2nd round pick of the Twins in the 2002 draft and between rookie and A-ball that year, he appeared in 18 games, pitching 27 innings and finishing with an ERA of 1.00. In '03, he started in High A, pitched 19 innings before being promoted to AA where he pitched 39 innings finishing with a combined ERA of 1.40. He finished '03 at AAA Rochester posting a 3.12 ERA. Before being brought up near the end of '04, he pitched 50 innings at Rochester compiling a 2.49 ERA. Since reaching the majors, nothing has changed except his K rate has dropped. His career ERA currently stands at 2.29.

 

That's both player's histories in a nutshell. What do you think?

 

I think the fact that he is only 24, and has a history of high K numbers makes him a totally different story. I was just wondering if there was any reason for his K numbers being so low. I don't think he'll be another Kolb. Also, for all the crappy moves the cubs have made, not shelling out for a closer (Percival or Kolb) was a pretty good decision.

 

Also, that's some pretty good detective work. Timely too! Do you have like a business card or something?

[Crash]

 

That said, I like dempster. I'd love to have him set up (4M next year...less than what Hawkins made) and get a stud to close (like BJ Ryan).

 

Perhaps because the the money (7-9 million) spent on a "stud closer" can be better spent on other team needs (any of the outfield spots). Even if Dempster regresses slightly the difference between what he can give us and what a "stud closer" could give us isn't worth the extra money.

 

If we are going to spend money on the bullpen I would rather spend signficantly less on a solid setup man for Dempster for something like 2-3 million and use the extra 5-6 million on our outfield offense.

[EricG]

Dempster is one of the few bright spots of this team. He deserves the raise.

[NCCubFan]

I like the signing. Something positive at the end of a very disappointing season. I would have preferred signing him for two years, but if three is what it took to get it done I have no problems with it. There's never any guarantee, but I see no reason why he can't continue to be the latest failed starter turned elite closer.

[CubsWin]

Also, that's some pretty good detective work. Timely too! Do you have like a business card or something?

I'm sleuthy like that. :wink:

[CubsWin]

Another take on Crain from a little earlier in the year.

 

Link

An interesting read, but the author presupposes that it is just happenstance that Crain's DER is so much higher than everybody else. Essentially, the author chalks it up to luck because he lacks any other logical explanation. What if his ball moves late and so he gets more weakly hit ground balls than other guys, or he is deceptive enough in his delivery that hitter get fewer good swings on him than other pitchers and thus when they do make contact, its less likely to be a crisply hit ball and easier to field?

 

I think the author might be right. But, I think he could also be missing the bigger picture. I guess only time will tell. Or someone a lot smarter than me.

[frostwyrm]

Decent move, not without risk, but there aren't any sure things out there at a resonable price. Dempster will be making about the same as Burnitz, who I thought was a lousy investment, so in my eyes this is improvement.

[NorthsideAvenger]

ERA 1.85 2.43

BAA .218 .207

WHIP 1.25 1.14

S/SO 33/35 35/40

BB:K 27:53 24/100

 

(I'm comparing the two as RELIEVERS, and did not include Demspter's stint as a starter, seeing as Ryan will never be used as a stater)

 

Would somebody please tell me where in those stats lies a rationality in spending prolly another 6-8 mill on somebody who throws left-handed? BJ Ryan is talented, no question, but enough to justify him as an upgrade over Dempster, I'm not so sure. At best he would ba A LATERAL MOVE. Take out Dempster's starter's #'s and make him a full-time closer to begin 2005, and I am willing to bet, his numbers are closer if not better then BJ Ryan's.

 

But to continue to prove my point:

 

(Ohman numbers are represented by a * .v. Ryan in 2005)

.v. lefties

*.177/.278/.329/.607

.211/.275/352/.627

 

righties

.209/282/267/549

*.227/.363/.333/.696

 

So you saying, Ryan was significantly better .v. righties then Ohman in 2005, so let's take it back a yr to 2004 (a yr before Ryan became a "stud" closer):

 

.v. lefties .177/.278/.329/.607 Ohman in 2005 (at 28 yrs old)

.v. righties.227/.363/.333/.696

 

.v. lefties .94/.164/.160/.324 Ryan in 2004 as set-up (then 28 )

.v. righties .252/.331/.327.658

 

Anyway you cut it, you CAN'T justfy paying BJ Ryan $6-8 mill per (or more) for say 4 yrs, when the Cubs already have an in-house candidate very similar to Ryan in Will Ohman, in terms of being a lefty, stuff, and stats. And the Cubs already have an in-house candidate might be as good as Ryan as a closer. And to justify going after BJ Ryan because he throws the ball lefty, isn't a real reason. If the Cubs didn't have Ohman, then yeah, but as a closer and/or set-up he would be a expensive redundacy. And he is an luxury we can afford not to persue.

 

I like BJ Ryan, but he is NOT a need. This teams should go after NEEDS, and if/when they accomplish that goal, then look for wants. Sidenote: Will Ohman was taken by the Cubs in the 8th rd of the 1998 (one pick after the A's took Eric Byrnes who was later dealt to the Rockies for Joe Kennedy who went 2nd to the last pick of the 8th rd) draft while,BJ Ryan was taken in the 17th rd of the 1998 draft (3 picks after Cubs taking Eric Hinske and 2 picks before the Padres too Brian Lawrence).

Edited October 2, 2005 by NorthsideAvenger

[CubsWin]

Anyway you cut it, you CAN'T justfy paying BJ Ryan $6-8 mill per (or more) for say 4 yrs, when the Cubs already have an in-house candidate very similar to Ryan in Will Ohman, in terms of being a lefty, stuff, and stats. And the Cubs already have an in-house candidate might be as good as Ryan as a closer. And to justify going after BJ Ryan because he throws the ball lefty, isn't a real reason. If the Cubs didn't have Ohman, then yeah, but as a closer and/or set-up he would be a expensive redundacy. And he is an luxury we can afford not to persue.

 

I like BJ Ryan, but he is NOT a need. This teams should go after NEEDS, and if/when they accomplish that goal, then look for wants. Sidenote: Will Ohman was taken by the Cubs in the 8th rd of the 1998 (one pick after the A's took Eric Byrnes who was later dealt to the Rockies for Joe Kennedy who went 2nd to the last pick of the 8th rd) draft while,BJ Ryan was taken in the 17th rd of the 1998 draft (3 picks after Cubs taking Eric Hinske and 2 picks before the Padres too Brian Lawrence).

Great stuff, NA.

 

I agree that the Cubs should not go after B.J. Ryan to be their closer. I also am convinced that a team like the Red Sox or Mets will throw gobs of money at him to be their closer so it won't even be an issue.

 

But, that said, if the Cubs had the opportunity to sign Ryan for 5-6 million, I think they might have the financial resources to do it. With Murton and Walker coming cheap and the possibilty of resigning Nomar to an incentive laden contract, after the expense of landing Giles for RF and Lofton as a stopgap in CF, the Cubs should have some money left over.

 

Given the choice between going after every 5th day guys like A.J. Burnett or Kevin Millwood for way more than 6 million or solidfying the bullpen with a guy who will appear in 75 games, signing a reliever like Ryan for 6 mill, starts to look a little better.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

When Ohman consistently improves like BJ Ryan has year after year, then we can compare the two releivers. I hope Ohman isn't a flash in the pan. BJ Ryan sure isn't.

 

Why spend the extra money on BJ? Look at that k/bb ratio again. Dempster is playing with fire. Do you honestly think he deserved that save on Thursday? CPat saved his backside with his play in center. Dempster often does just enough to get the save. I'd rather have someone who can dominate the inning, not luck out. Luck doesn't last year in and year out (we get 3 more years of Dempster).

 

When Dempster "regresses slightly" it's going to have a large impact on his save percentage. I'll guess we can wait and see who's right on this one. I hope it's not me.

 

Yes, we have money to spend in the OF. With Murton taking up one slot (possibly Pie in CF...which i'm not in favor of), how much money do we need to spend out there (for RF)? we'd better have a solid pen ready when the wheels come off our rotation. we can't afford the difference in a setup man and BJ Ryan/Billy Wagner? of course we can.

[LeftCoastCubFan]

Dempster really will get 5 million next year, it's just that 1 mil of that is the signing bonus. I can't imagine them prorating it considering the structure is set up to be 5/5/5.5 if he gets it up front.

Not likely. Signing bonuses are accounted for in the year they are paid. In most cases they are prorated and over the life of the guaranteed portion of the contract. So 4.33/5.33/5.83 is the likely numbers.

 

Given Benitez and Percival received 3 year deals last year in the 5 to 6 mil range, the fact that the prices are rising again, and the deals Wagner and Ryan and Wagner are likely to receive; this at worse a market value contract. More likely it will turn out to be a bargain if Dempster remains effective.

[Cubfanintheknow]

A good signing. Price is right and so is the length of the contract. With so many other positions to address, it's going to help Hendry a lot going into the offseason. One less position to focus on.

[rawaction]

Not a bad move. Dempster was absolutely fabulous in the closer's role this year. I doubt he'll be this good at any point over the next 3 years, but he should still be in the top 1/2 of closers in baseball at the least. I don't see the 3 years as being that big of a deal. The Cubs got out of the Hawkins situation, and he's a little older.

 

BJ Ryan would have been nice, but it's not gonna happen. The Cubs can still get a pretty good setup man (Howry, Romero, Riske, Mota, etc) for just over the cost per year they would have had to pay Ryan or Wagner.

[mg420]

Anyway you cut it, you CAN'T justfy paying BJ Ryan $6-8 mill per (or more) for say 4 yrs, when the Cubs already have an in-house candidate very similar to Ryan in Will Ohman, in terms of being a lefty, stuff, and stats. And the Cubs already have an in-house candidate might be as good as Ryan as a closer. And to justify going after BJ Ryan because he throws the ball lefty, isn't a real reason. If the Cubs didn't have Ohman, then yeah, but as a closer and/or set-up he would be a expensive redundacy. And he is an luxury we can afford not to persue.

 

I like BJ Ryan, but he is NOT a need. This teams should go after NEEDS, and if/when they accomplish that goal, then look for wants. Sidenote: Will Ohman was taken by the Cubs in the 8th rd of the 1998 (one pick after the A's took Eric Byrnes who was later dealt to the Rockies for Joe Kennedy who went 2nd to the last pick of the 8th rd) draft while,BJ Ryan was taken in the 17th rd of the 1998 draft (3 picks after Cubs taking Eric Hinske and 2 picks before the Padres too Brian Lawrence).

Great stuff, NA.

 

I agree that the Cubs should not go after B.J. Ryan to be their closer. I also am convinced that a team like the Red Sox or Mets will throw gobs of money at him to be their closer so it won't even be an issue.

 

But, that said, if the Cubs had the opportunity to sign Ryan for 5-6 million, I think they might have the financial resources to do it. With Murton and Walker coming cheap and the possibilty of resigning Nomar to an incentive laden contract, after the expense of landing Giles for RF and Lofton as a stopgap in CF, the Cubs should have some money left over.

 

Given the choice between going after every 5th day guys like A.J. Burnett or Kevin Millwood for way more than 6 million or solidfying the bullpen with a guy who will appear in 75 games, signing a reliever like Ryan for 6 mill, starts to look a little better.

 

i think williams will get the # 5 spot next year and hope the cubs sign rusch as the #4.

[RockTheIvy]

ERA 1.85 2.43

BAA .218 .207

WHIP 1.25 1.14

S/SO 33/35 35/40

BB:K 27:53 24/100

 

(I'm comparing the two as RELIEVERS, and did not include Demspter's stint as a starter, seeing as Ryan will never be used as a stater)

 

Would somebody please tell me where in those stats lies a rationality in spending prolly another 6-8 mill on somebody who throws left-handed? BJ Ryan is talented, no question, but enough to justify him as an upgrade over Dempster, I'm not so sure. At best he would ba A LATERAL MOVE. Take out Dempster's starter's #'s and make him a full-time closer to begin 2005, and I am willing to bet, his numbers are closer if not better then BJ Ryan's.

 

But to continue to prove my point:

 

(Ohman numbers are represented by a * .v. Ryan in 2005)

.v. lefties

*.177/.278/.329/.607

.211/.275/352/.627

 

righties

.209/282/267/549

*.227/.363/.333/.696

 

So you saying, Ryan was significantly better .v. righties then Ohman in 2005, so let's take it back a yr to 2004 (a yr before Ryan became a "stud" closer):

 

.v. lefties .177/.278/.329/.607 Ohman in 2005 (at 28 yrs old)

.v. righties.227/.363/.333/.696

 

.v. lefties .94/.164/.160/.324 Ryan in 2004 as set-up (then 28)

.v. righties .252/.331/.327.658

 

Anyway you cut it, you CAN'T justfy paying BJ Ryan $6-8 mill per (or more) for say 4 yrs, when the Cubs already have an in-house candidate very similar to Ryan in Will Ohman, in terms of being a lefty, stuff, and stats. And the Cubs already have an in-house candidate might be as good as Ryan as a closer. And to justify going after BJ Ryan because he throws the ball lefty, isn't a real reason. If the Cubs didn't have Ohman, then yeah, but as a closer and/or set-up he would be a expensive redundacy. And he is an luxury we can afford not to persue.

 

I like BJ Ryan, but he is NOT a need. This teams should go after NEEDS, and if/when they accomplish that goal, then look for wants. Sidenote: Will Ohman was taken by the Cubs in the 8th rd of the 1998 (one pick after the A's took Eric Byrnes who was later dealt to the Rockies for Joe Kennedy who went 2nd to the last pick of the 8th rd) draft while,BJ Ryan was taken in the 17th rd of the 1998 draft (3 picks after Cubs taking Eric Hinske and 2 picks before the Padres too Brian Lawrence).

 

Like CubsWin said, it's all about cost. If he could be had for 5-6 million? I think you do it. I really don't think you can have too many quality bullpen arms. Remember the 03 Astros? The back of their bullpen went Lidge, Dotel and Wagner. That was insane. I don't think that can be easily replicated, but having BJ and Dempster would not hurt. But I also think Win is right again when he says that Boston or NY will pay close to double-digit millions for him. If that's the case, we should look somewhere else. But I still believe we need to find some bullpen guys who have low walk rates, because as it stands now, they walk far too many guys.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Esseintially, we're paying Dempster what we would've owed Hawkins next year if we hadn't moved him. It's not a bad deal.

 

B.J. Ryan is a pipe dream. The Cubs aren't going to pay anyone else closer's money.

 

The Cubs should show some serious interest in Dotel. Does anyone know if he'll be well enough to pitch early in 06?

[Jazz]

we need to trade for a BP arm, spending 6-8 million on one in FA is not the answer. Get one in a package deal like the Walker and Patterson for Hunter and Crain deals.

[NorthsideAvenger]

When Ohman consistently improves like BJ Ryan has year after year, then we can compare the two releivers. I hope Ohman isn't a flash in the pan. BJ Ryan sure isn't.

 

Why spend the extra money on BJ? Look at that k/bb ratio again. Dempster is playing with fire. Do you honestly think he deserved that save on Thursday? CPat saved his backside with his play in center. Dempster often does just enough to get the save. I'd rather have someone who can dominate the inning, not luck out. Luck doesn't last year in and year out (we get 3 more years of Dempster).

 

When Dempster "regresses slightly" it's going to have a large impact on his save percentage. I'll guess we can wait and see who's right on this one. I hope it's not me.

 

Yes, we have money to spend in the OF. With Murton taking up one slot (possibly Pie in CF...which i'm not in favor of), how much money do we need to spend out there (for RF)? we'd better have a solid pen ready when the wheels come off our rotation. we can't afford the difference in a setup man and BJ Ryan/Billy Wagner? of course we can.

 

First: Ohman is following Ryan's development. Now I am not saying Ohman will be a closer like Ryan, I'm just saying tht Ohman can do the same things (minus not the k/ip) that Ryan can, minus ALOT of money.

 

Second: I personally think Dempster will improve on his numbers as closer in 2006. I really think, he will become comfortable and allow his stuff to take over. It wouldn't surprise me if Dempster is the better pitcher in 2006 then BJ Ryan.

[CoolHandLuke]

That would really suprise me, but it would be a welcome surprise.