D-Back Dilemma

[erik316wttn]

Whatever happens in AZ, I hope to heck that Gonzo doesn't end up as the Cubs big name acquisition.

 

Exactly.

 

It would be another "Hey, this guy was great 4 years ago! Let's get him!" acquisition.

[rawaction]

I'd take Gonzo if he came with a $6M or less price tag. It would also help if he came with Santos or Drew. Still, unless Quinton's also coming to Chicago (not likely unless the Cubs pick up some major salary), Gonzalez wouldn't be nearly enough.

[goonys evil twin]

I'd take Gonzo if he came with a $6M or less price tag. It would also help if he came with Santos or Drew. Still, unless Quinton's also coming to Chicago (not likely unless the Cubs pick up some major salary), Gonzalez wouldn't be nearly enough.

 

Is he a free agent or are you talking about some kind of trade.

 

Is the BOB a hitters or pitchers park? Gonzo has been better on the road the past few years. But he's also been slipping significantly and inconsistent in the health department. I wouldn't expect much more than a .270/.370/.460 kind of line from him next year, at the most. And that's with no idea how many games he can play. He's pretty much useless in the field as well. And like I said he better not be the big acquisition the Cubs get.

[rawaction]

I'd take Gonzo if he came with a $6M or less price tag. It would also help if he came with Santos or Drew. Still, unless Quinton's also coming to Chicago (not likely unless the Cubs pick up some major salary), Gonzalez wouldn't be nearly enough.

 

Is he a free agent or are you talking about some kind of trade.

 

Is the BOB a hitters or pitchers park? Gonzo has been better on the road the past few years. But he's also been slipping significantly and inconsistent in the health department. I wouldn't expect much more than a .270/.370/.460 kind of line from him next year, at the most. And that's with no idea how many games he can play. He's pretty much useless in the field as well. And like I said he better not be the big acquisition the Cubs get.

 

I'm talking about a trade. I wouldn't give up much to get him, or pay much to have him (meaning he wouldn't be a Cub, which is fine with me).

 

And the BOB is a hitter's park, IIRC. I would expect a line slightly below that for Gonzalez.

 

I'd rate him similar to Cliff Floyd. Nice secondary OF acquisition. Health issues, useless on D.... but should give you a .360 OBP and some power.

[nilodnayr]

A lot. Quentin is better than any two prospects in our minors.

 

Maybe in the short term, but in the long-term, both Felix Pie and Ryan Harvey---IMO---will be better then Quentin. Conor Jackson on the other hand.....

 

Quentin hit .300/.420/.550 in AAA, Neither Pie or Harvey have approached those numbers at any level.

 

Quentin and Jackson are basically the same player. Same age, but Quentin plays OF while Jackson is a first baseman. Quentin also has more HR power, at least for now.

 

As much as I love Quentin, Connor Jackson has the advantage in plate discipline/strike zone judgement (and Carlos Quentin's strike zone judgement is pretty good). I think the Diamondbacks prefer Connor to Carlos, so they definitely think his HR power will come.

 

Just what I was goign to say. Whats better than 72 BB with 71 Ks in 452 ABs? Well 69 BB with 32 Ks in 333 ABs :shock: Plus Connor plays 1B Carlos is an OF. I'd give up anyone in our minors for either one though.

[nilodnayr]

If Hendry could pull off a trade for Carlos without giving up Felix he would make me so happy.

 

If Hendry could pull off a trade for Carlos without giving up anyone else of real significance besides Felix he would make me so happy.

[BigbadB]

I'd take Gonzo if he came with a $6M or less price tag. It would also help if he came with Santos or Drew. Still, unless Quinton's also coming to Chicago (not likely unless the Cubs pick up some major salary), Gonzalez wouldn't be nearly enough.

 

Is he a free agent or are you talking about some kind of trade.

 

Is the BOB a hitters or pitchers park? Gonzo has been better on the road the past few years. But he's also been slipping significantly and inconsistent in the health department. I wouldn't expect much more than a .270/.370/.460 kind of line from him next year, at the most. And that's with no idea how many games he can play. He's pretty much useless in the field as well. And like I said he better not be the big acquisition the Cubs get.

 

I'm talking about a trade. I wouldn't give up much to get him, or pay much to have him (meaning he wouldn't be a Cub, which is fine with me).

 

And the BOB is a hitter's park, IIRC. I would expect a line slightly below that for Gonzalez.

 

I'd rate him similar to Cliff Floyd. Nice secondary OF acquisition. Health issues, useless on D.... but should give you a .360 OBP and some power.

 

The BOB is at the 2nd highest altitude of all major league parks. They also have light air for baseballs to carry. Definitely a hitter's park.

[nilodnayr]

The problem with trading Glaus and Green were they were just signed to deals (which means they are wanted) and if traded could demand a trade next offseason. Nothing has changed in the Dbacks situation since they signed the both of them so Id have to say they have them in the long term plans. Especially considering they ridiculously overpaid for them, making them even more difficult to trade. Tony Clark was just resigned for very cheap, so they obviously want to stick with him. That leaves Gonzo, Tracy, Connor, and Quentin. Who really knows what Tony Clark is going to do next year as well as his durability. They are definitely going to want to keep Tracy should Tony go down or regress. With Glaus being signed through 08, Tracy's days at the hot corner are done. He should take 2/3rds of the 1st base starts at first with the rest going to Clark. The rest of the time he can sub at either corner OF. Tracys a very good hitter, but more valuble taking the majority of his starts at 1B than a corner OF. So we've got RF, 3B, and 1B filled with Green, Glaus, Tracy/Clark. That leaves LF and CF (not a position in question, but a position the Dbacks sorely need to fill). In LF, they currently have Gonzo who is will be making 11.5M next year, and put up an 800 OPS (while leading the team in ABs). He is obviously target #1 for them to dish in this situation and given their financial issues would most likely like to eat as little of his contract as possible. Gonzo is traded. Carlos Quentin starts in left. He gets the nod over Conor Jackson because 1) he has more proven power (not just projecting doubles now into future HRs) and 2) hes an OF by trade, not a 1B. As mentioned earlier Tracy is more valuable at 1b than a corner OF. So, Gonzo and Conor are the odd men out. If the Dbacks want to save money, they package them together. A guy like Patterson could thrive in the BOB and would look good gliding in their OF. Plus IMO the Dbacks are the type of org to still like Pattersons potential. Talk of moving Green to CF is an empty threat to try to leverage their position in the trading market. Im not sure what exactly the Dbacks need but Id have to think their 2006 rotation is set with Javy, Ortiz, Webb, Vargas and Hasley. They could use some bullpen help and some A ball pitching prospects (as their overpriced bad pitchers are signed though 07 and 08). Maybe something like Mitre, Welley, Gallagher, Ryu, and Patterson (I wouldnt mind giving up more). For Gonzo (and the majority of his contract) and Conor Jackson. I then resign Nomar to play short, keep Walker to play second. Use Gonzo in left, Hairston in CF, Conor and Murton in RF. The OF defense is below average, but I dont care. Id think about signing Giles too, using Murton and Conor to back up each corner, but I think I'd rather spend taht money on BJ Ryan (and save some of it) and go after a RF in next years offseason which will be more of a buyers market. Plus I think Conor is ready to be a big league hitter. Some one will have to fill me in on his athleticism as to whether or not he could play RF. But my philosophy is if Alou can do it, anyone can. Use Greive as the 5th OF, Cedeno and Fontenot as back up infielders. I dont mind giving Dusty 12 pitchers because a lot of those players can play multiple positions and the backups (besides Greive) are young and Id like to get them as much playing time as possible. Plus Id like to resign Dempster and Williamson to set up Ryan leaving us with a pen of those three Ohman, Wuertz, Novoa, and Rusch (insurance).

 

 

Hairston

Walker

Lee

ARAM

Nomar

Gonzo

Conor/Murton

Barrett

 

Murton/Conor

Greive

Cedeno

Fontenot

Blanco

 

Z

Prior

Wood

Maddux

Williams

 

Ryan

Dempster

Williamson

Wuertz

Novoa

Ohman

Rusch

[XZero771679666304]

The problem with trading Glaus and Green were they were just signed to deals (which means they are wanted) and if traded could demand a trade next offseason. Nothing has changed in the Dbacks situation since they signed the both of them so Id have to say they have them in the long term plans. Especially considering they ridiculously overpaid for them, making them even more difficult to trade. Tony Clark was just resigned for very cheap, so they obviously want to stick with him. That leaves Gonzo, Tracy, Connor, and Quentin. Who really knows what Tony Clark is going to do next year as well as his durability. They are definitely going to want to keep Tracy should Tony go down or regress. With Glaus being signed through 08, Tracy's days at the hot corner are done. He should take 2/3rds of the 1st base starts at first with the rest going to Clark. The rest of the time he can sub at either corner OF. Tracys a very good hitter, but more valuble taking the majority of his starts at 1B than a corner OF. So we've got RF, 3B, and 1B filled with Green, Glaus, Tracy/Clark. That leaves LF and CF (not a position in question, but a position the Dbacks sorely need to fill). In LF, they currently have Gonzo who is will be making 11.5M next year, and put up an 800 OPS (while leading the team in ABs). He is obviously target #1 for them to dish in this situation and given their financial issues would most likely like to eat as little of his contract as possible. Gonzo is traded. Carlos Quentin starts in left. He gets the nod over Conor Jackson because 1) he has more proven power (not just projecting doubles now into future HRs) and 2) hes an OF by trade, not a 1B. As mentioned earlier Tracy is more valuable at 1b than a corner OF. So, Gonzo and Conor are the odd men out. If the Dbacks want to save money, they package them together. A guy like Patterson could thrive in the BOB and would look good gliding in their OF. Plus IMO the Dbacks are the type of org to still like Pattersons potential. Talk of moving Green to CF is an empty threat to try to leverage their position in the trading market. Im not sure what exactly the Dbacks need but Id have to think their 2006 rotation is set with Javy, Ortiz, Webb, Vargas and Hasley. They could use some bullpen help and some A ball pitching prospects (as their overpriced bad pitchers are signed though 07 and 08). Maybe something like Mitre, Welley, Gallagher, Ryu, and Patterson (I wouldnt mind giving up more). For Gonzo (and the majority of his contract) and Conor Jackson. I then resign Nomar to play short, keep Walker to play second. Use Gonzo in left, Hairston in CF, Conor and Murton in RF. The OF defense is below average, but I dont care. Id think about signing Giles too, using Murton and Conor to back up each corner, but I think I'd rather spend taht money on BJ Ryan (and save some of it) and go after a RF in next years offseason which will be more of a buyers market. Plus I think Conor is ready to be a big league hitter. Some one will have to fill me in on his athleticism as to whether or not he could play RF. But my philosophy is if Alou can do it, anyone can. Use Greive as the 5th OF, Cedeno and Fontenot as back up infielders. I dont mind giving Dusty 12 pitchers because a lot of those players can play multiple positions and the backups (besides Greive) are young and Id like to get them as much playing time as possible. Plus Id like to resign Dempster and Williamson to set up Ryan leaving us with a pen of those three Ohman, Wuertz, Novoa, and Rusch (insurance).

 

 

Hairston

Walker

Lee

ARAM

Nomar

Gonzo

Conor/Murton

Barrett

 

Murton/Conor

Greive

Cedeno

Fontenot

Blanco

 

Z

Prior

Wood

Maddux

Williams

 

Ryan

Dempster

Williamson

Wuertz

Novoa

Ohman

Rusch

 

IMO, Jackson and Murton are the same player. Having both seems redundant.

[nilodnayr]

IMO, Jackson and Murton are the same player. Having both seems redundant.

 

Jackson is probably 10-15 times the player/prospect Murton is. Now tahts an exageration, but Murton was a year older and playing at a level lower for the majority of the year posting 342/403/498 with 17 doubles and 8 HR in 313 ABs with 29 BB and 42 Ks.

 

Jackson hit 354/457/553 with 38 doubles and 8 HR in 333 ABs with 69 BB and 32 Ks. Thats significantly better than Murton. Consider the age, level, and the fact taht this year has been an anomoly for Murton and just the norm for Jackson. I assume you are referring to their power potential but havent really realized it as "same player", but I assure you, they are not.

[nilodnayr]

IMO, Jackson and Murton are the same player. Having both seems redundant.

 

Jackson is probably 10-15 times the player/prospect Murton is. Now tahts an exageration, but Murton was a year older and playing at a level lower for the majority of the year posting 342/403/498 with 17 doubles and 8 HR in 313 ABs with 29 BB and 42 Ks.

 

Jackson hit 354/457/553 with 38 doubles and 8 HR in 333 ABs with 69 BB and 32 Ks. Thats significantly better than Murton. Consider the age, level, and the fact taht this year has been an anomoly for Murton and just the norm for Jackson. I assume you are referring to their power potential but havent really realized it as "same player", but I assure you, they are not.

 

Forgot to mention taht to Murtons credit he has performed at higher levels this year, and looked good doing it, albeit over a small sample size.

[burnt out cubbie fan]

IMO, Jackson and Murton are the same player. Having both seems redundant.

 

Jackson is probably 10-15 times the player/prospect Murton is. Now tahts an exageration, but Murton was a year older and playing at a level lower for the majority of the year posting 342/403/498 with 17 doubles and 8 HR in 313 ABs with 29 BB and 42 Ks.

 

Jackson hit 354/457/553 with 38 doubles and 8 HR in 333 ABs with 69 BB and 32 Ks. Thats significantly better than Murton. Consider the age, level, and the fact taht this year has been an anomoly for Murton and just the norm for Jackson. I assume you are referring to their power potential but havent really realized it as "same player", but I assure you, they are not.

Umm...Connor has WAY more power potential than Matt. Matt figures to be in the 20-25 homer area if he hits his ceiling while Connor can be a 40+ homer kind of guy in the future.

[nilodnayr]

IMO, Jackson and Murton are the same player. Having both seems redundant.

 

Jackson is probably 10-15 times the player/prospect Murton is. Now tahts an exageration, but Murton was a year older and playing at a level lower for the majority of the year posting 342/403/498 with 17 doubles and 8 HR in 313 ABs with 29 BB and 42 Ks.

 

Jackson hit 354/457/553 with 38 doubles and 8 HR in 333 ABs with 69 BB and 32 Ks. Thats significantly better than Murton. Consider the age, level, and the fact taht this year has been an anomoly for Murton and just the norm for Jackson. I assume you are referring to their power potential but havent really realized it as "same player", but I assure you, they are not.

Umm...Connor has WAY more power potential than Matt. Matt figures to be in the 20-25 homer area if he hits his ceiling while Connor can be a 40+ homer kind of guy in the future.

 

I wasnt saying that they had the same power potential, but just guessing theat XZero was referring to the fact that they are the same player because neither has realized their power potential. As evidenced by my citing the 38 doubles opposed to 17, I acknowledge that Conors potential is huge, despite the similar HR numbers. But they both should be hitting a lot more over the fence.

[XZero771679666304]

I know it's small sample size, but I get FSN Arizona down here, and Jackson doesn't look that impressive. Having seen a bit of both, Murton looks a lot better at the plate. His numbers are nowhere near what Murton has put up, and he didn't jump two levels like Matt did. He may have more power potential, but I don't think that is worth aquiring him for.

 

I'm not saying Jackson isn't a great prospect, but I question any opinion that says he is far better than Murton. Jackson's minor league numbers are better, but Matt has looked far better at the ML level in a comparable number of AB's, even if you consider Matt's good luck on many of his hits.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I know it's small sample size, but I get FSN Arizona down here, and Jackson doesn't look that impressive. Having seen a bit of both, Murton looks a lot better at the plate. His numbers are nowhere near what Murton has put up, and he didn't jump two levels like Matt did. He may have more power potential, but I don't think that is worth aquiring him for.

 

I'm not saying Jackson isn't a great prospect, but I question any opinion that says he is far better than Murton. Jackson's minor league numbers are better, but Matt has looked far better at the ML level in a comparable number of AB's, even if you consider Matt's good luck on many of his hits.

 

Depending on your definition of "far better," I think you'll find quite a few rating Jackson as a far better prospect. In its midseason top-25 prospect list, Baseball America rated Connor #20 (Felix Pie was #17 and Carlos Quentin was #19). I would expect a gap between Jackson and Murton to be sizable (say a difference of 50 players), based on how their top-25 broke down. And I wouldn't disagree with BA on that.

[Diffusion]

One thing that really needs to be considered when you're talking about Arizona prospects is their system's minor league park factors, which are all hugely hitter friendly. All numbers based on 2003 courtesy of BA (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/040408parkfactors.html)...

 

Triple-A : TUCSON (League Factor 1070, Park Factor 1294)

Double-A : EL PASO (League Factor 1061, Park Factor 1113)

High-A : LANCASTER (League Factor 1160, Park Factor 1143)

Low-A : SOUTH BEND (League Factor 975, Park Factor 968)

 

As you can see, Lancaster, El Paso, Tucson, these are extremely favourable hitting environments. They're playing in great hitter's leagues, and, not only that, but great hitter's parks relative to those great hitter's leagues.

 

So you really have to take the numbers of Quentin and Jackson with enormous pinches of salt. I think the pair of them are both very overrated as a result. They're both very solid prospects, don't get me wrong, and I love their plate discipline and wish the Cubs could breed more players with that kind of knowledge of the strike zone, as opposed to home run hackers like Harvey, but you guys that are talking about Jackson in terms of 40+ home run power are absolutely out of your mind I think. He hit all of 8 while playing for Tucson aged 23 while weighing 205 pounds, for crying out loud, he's not going to be filling out too much more. It's all very well saying that "doubles will turn into home runs with time", but it's closer to the truth that all he's got is doubles power.

 

As for Quentin, I like him quite a bit more at this stage. He's a better all-round player, a better fielder, a better baserunner. I also think he's a better hitter, simply because he's got more power while he's got the same ability to hit for average and get on-base as Jackson.

[HoopsCubs]

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/articles/0915dbside0915.html

 

Luis Gonzalez thinks he might be shopped (he does have 10/5 veto rights).

[CuseCubFan69]

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/articles/0915dbside0915.html

 

Luis Gonzalez thinks he might be shopped (he does have 10/5 veto rights).

 

I'd take him if Arizona adds Quentin to the deal and the Cubs pay all of Gonzo's salary.

[goonys evil twin]

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/articles/0915dbside0915.html

 

Luis Gonzalez thinks he might be shopped (he does have 10/5 veto rights).

 

I'd take him if Arizona adds Quentin to the deal and the Cubs pay all of Gonzo's salary.

 

Wait, you want the Cubs to pay $11m for a guy who probably won't have much more than an 800 OPS and has a good chance to be sub 800?

[biittner77]

How about Pie for Quentin stright up? That solves the D'Backs problem in that they replace the high tier prospect they lose and gain a couple years before he's big league ready. The Cubs gain a guy that they can more comfortably play in the majors right now.

[Tim]

Thanks for posting that, Diffusion. It is certainly something to keep in mind when looking at the numbers.

 

I think Quentin is a guy with the whole package. He's got the production record. He's got the tools. He also (reportedly) has all the intangibles you could ask for. He was known as a real leader at Stanford. He's a very smart ballplayer.

 

I really think he'd be a great fit for the Cubs. I'd approach AZ and start with an offer of Williams. It would make a lot of sense for both teams.

[CuseCubFan69]

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/articles/0915dbside0915.html

 

Luis Gonzalez thinks he might be shopped (he does have 10/5 veto rights).

 

I'd take him if Arizona adds Quentin to the deal and the Cubs pay all of Gonzo's salary.

 

Wait, you want the Cubs to pay $11m for a guy who probably won't have much more than an 800 OPS and has a good chance to be sub 800?

 

I look at it as as investment in Quentin. If the Cubs can not use this cash to get an impact hitter I'd like to see them get a quality young hitter then. This way the Cubs don't give up a lot in prospects and can move some pitchers for another need.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Thanks for posting that, Diffusion. It is certainly something to keep in mind when looking at the numbers.

 

I think Quentin is a guy with the whole package. He's got the production record. He's got the tools. He also (reportedly) has all the intangibles you could ask for. He was known as a real leader at Stanford. He's a very smart ballplayer.

 

I really think he'd be a great fit for the Cubs. I'd approach AZ and start with an offer of Williams. It would make a lot of sense for both teams.

 

I think the Cubs would have to offer much more than just Jerome Williams. If the Cubs are going to trade Todd Walker (I'm opposed to that, but it looks like that's what they want to do), why don't they send him to Arizona in a Quentin trade?

[Tim]

Thanks for posting that, Diffusion. It is certainly something to keep in mind when looking at the numbers.

 

I think Quentin is a guy with the whole package. He's got the production record. He's got the tools. He also (reportedly) has all the intangibles you could ask for. He was known as a real leader at Stanford. He's a very smart ballplayer.

 

I really think he'd be a great fit for the Cubs. I'd approach AZ and start with an offer of Williams. It would make a lot of sense for both teams.

 

I think the Cubs would have to offer much more than just Jerome Williams. If the Cubs are going to trade Todd Walker (I'm opposed to that, but it looks like that's what they want to do), why don't they send him to Arizona in a Quentin trade?

I think Williams' trade value has gone up quite a bit since mid-year. But I think there are other pieces the Cubs could add that AZ would be interested in. As you say, Walker could be included, Patterson could be moved, etc.

[imb]

I dont have my midseason BA top 100 around anywhere, does anyone have that list handy? I'd liek to see who was rated above the Jackson/Quentin two headed monster.