You know, we aren't really out of the wild card...

[Wheelimus]

Call me nuts, but just think about the following

 

We're 6 & a half games out

 

We're 6-1 this month

 

We have seven games left with the Astros, who lead the Wild Card. Of our remaining games, we have 3 against the Giants who are reeling, 3 against the Reds who we can, in theory, beat, as we are, in theory, more talented. 4 against the Cardinals who should be coasting and getting in playoff shape by that time. 3 against the Brewers who, again, we're better than in theory. And then 7 of our final 9 games are against the Astros, with a couple of (in theory) easy games against the Pirates sandwhiched in between.

 

Now, lets look at what the competition has, their last 10 game records included

 

Astros (7-3) - Brewers (3), Marlins (4), Brewers (3), Pirates (4), Cubs (3), Cardinals (2), Cubs (4)

 

Phillies (3-7) - Marlins (3), Braves (4), Marlins (3), Braves (3), Reds (3), Mets (3), Nationals (3)

 

Marlins (6-4) - Philly (3), Houston (4), Philly (3), Mets (3), Braves (3), Nationals (3), Braves (3)

 

Nationals (4-6) - Braves (3), Mets (3), Padres (3), Giants (3), Mets (3), Marlins (3), Phillies (3)

 

Mets (2-8) - Cardinals (3), Nationals (3), Braves (3), Marlins (3), Nationals (3), Philly (3), Rockies (3)

 

The first thing that jumps out is, all the teams from the East are playing each other again and again over this last month (which, you know, duh). So it's not a huge stretch to assume they continue to beat each other up and the wild card doesn't come out of the East.

 

So, it's pretty much us chasing the Astros when it comes down to it, and we play them 7 times. So lets break down the Astros (because if you catch them you catch everyone else by proxy, pretty much) schedule and how they've fared against those teams this year.

 

Brewers (6) Season to date, 6-3

Marlins (4) Season to date, 1-2

Pirates (4) Season to date, 6-6

Cubs (7) Season to date, 4-5

Cardinals (2) Season to date, 3-11

 

So lets just take out the Cubs games, since we're drinking blue kool-aid and assuming the Cubs have just hit their stride, and are going to play above their results this season. Lets just base the Astros results against everyone else on their season average and recent trends...

 

Brewers, 6 games, 2-2 in their last 4 meetings (their only 4 meetings since 5/29). Lets say 4-2, though 3-3 would not be a stretch.

 

Marlins, 4 games, 1-2 thus far. Lets say 2-2, though worse (or better) is possible.

 

Pirates, 4 games, have lost 2 in a row, but won 5 in a row before that. Lets say 3-1, but they could do worse is the Pirates really want to play spoilers.

 

Cardinals, 2 games, 1-5 since 7/15, i'm going to go out on a limb and say, 0-2.

 

So, this has the Astros going 9-7 in every game except the ones they play us in.

 

Lets look at the Cubs remaining schedule just like the Astros.

 

Giants, 3 games, 3-1 this season, lets say 2-1

 

Reds, 3 games, 5-7 this season, go out on a limb and say with Griffey out and the Reds with little to play for, we go 3-0

 

Cardinals, 4 games, 8-4 this season, with them hopefully being in playoff readyness mode, lets go out on another limb and say 3-1

 

Brewers, 3 games, 6-7 this season, another limb, and 2-1

 

Pittsburgh, 2 games, won 4 straight, lets say 2-0

 

So, this has the cubs going 12-3

 

Which puts ours and the Astros records at the following

 

Cubs - 81-74

Astros - 84-71

 

3 games back

 

7 games against the the Astros, so in those 7 games, we'd have to go 5-2 to tie the Astros for the Wild Card.

 

As noted above, both teams could in theory do better or worse than I noted.

 

So...highly unlikely, but we still have a chance in the wild card :D

[erik316wttn]

Hope springs eternal in every Cub fan, I guess.

[Notorious]

Read your own message and look at your sig that you've had since halfway through the season :) I sense some internal dissagreement.

[The Voice of Reason]

Do you also believe in Santa Claus, the Easter bunny, the tooth fairy and that Barry Bonds didn't know "the clear" was steroids?

[Rob]

I know it's a longshot at this point, but hey... I guess that's what being a Cubs fan is all about.

 

I've still got my Believe bracelet on... how about you guys?

[littleburr24]

I know it's a longshot at this point, but hey... I guess that's what being a Cubs fan is all about.

 

I've still got my Believe bracelet on... how about you guys?

 

I'm not takin my Believe bracelet off for a long time.

[Derwood]

Had the Cubs not been swept by the Mets and lost 2 of 3 to the Phillies during that 8 game skid, I might agree.

[moorecg]

Had the Cubs not been swept by the Mets and lost 2 of 3 to the Phillies during that 8 game skid, I might agree.

 

Yeah...its not as bad as last year...but there are just so many "what ifs" out there...the 8 games right before the break against Wash and Atlanta still sting quite a bit too...we were 4 games over before that disaster...just winning 2 or 3 of those.....what might have been.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

For anyone who thinks the Cubs have a chance, please. Don't do this to yourself. It isn't healthy.

[Rob]

For anyone who thinks the Cubs have a chance, please. Don't do this to yourself. It isn't healthy.

 

It's gonna take a lot more than that to stop me.

[Wheelimus]

Hehe, nah, just playing devils advocate.

 

If the above were to happen, I fully believe it would be despite their manager and his toys, not because of. It would be because of guys like Cedeno and Murton stepping up, etc.

 

I still feel that, without Dusty Baker, we're either leading the wild card or just a game or two back. He needs fired, and he needs fired now...

 

Read your own message and look at your sig that you've had since halfway through the season :) I sense some internal dissagreement.

[ZMovieman]

The way I look at it is this: I hope the Cubs finish this season strong due to the contributions of Murton and Cedeno. If this pushes us to playoff contention then so be it, but that should be the furthest thing from our minds.

 

However, if Cedeno and Murton do not get playing time, I hope the Cubs plummeting record tells Hendry that enough is enough and that Baker gets fired.

 

More than likely, reality falls in the middle....

[Chocolate Milk]

The Cubs are still playing?

[JC]

The Cubs are still playing?

 

They must be. Maddux's option just vested.

 

:twisted:

[UMFan83]

So you need the Cubs to go 17-5, the astros to go 11-12 and all other teams to beat up on each other just for the Cubs to tie the wild card?

 

Theoretically we are better then most of the teams that we play yet realistically we don't beat them at a regular pace.

 

I am really just cheering for a .500 season. No need to have unnecessary expectations.

 

If they win 9 in a row, I will begin to think about the playoffs.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

if dusty keeps starting the rookies, we'll at least have a chance to pull off a miracle. Edited September 9, 2005 by Meat&PotatoesMan

[bobbyd20]

I might actually pull for 0-22 because I feel that's the only way Dusty won't be managing the 2006 Chicago Cubs. If he's back they will probably also feature Neifi Perez leading off and playing shortstop on opening day.

 

I don't think I can stand another season (much less a contract extention) of poor fundamentals, continued lack of accontability by the manager, lineups featuring low OBP guys at the top, Jose Macias in a Cubs uniform, struggling veterans still in the lineup instead of promising youngsters, and Burnitz batting between D. Lee and Ramirez to create a balanced lineup even though Lee and Ramirez were hot and Burnitz was swooning. I could go on, but I'm starting to get frustrated again.

[Roast]

I agree with the idea of the origional post. About three weeks to a month ago I STOPPED following baseball. Period. I was so frustrated, I just couldnt take it. I still posted on here. But I know almost nothing of anything that's happened since the begining of August. I assumed the cubs were like 126 games out of the WC till now. I went to cubs.com yesterday and about died. My jaw dropped. Literally.

 

So last night I'm watching the NFL kickoff and browsing NSBB and decide to hop over to the Game Threads forum. I see the game is in process, so i flip over and watched about two or three innings. I enjoyed it. Tonight, I plan to watch the game. I didnt miss baseball while I was gone, but I'm sure glad its back.

[AlwaysaCub]

I agree with the idea of the origional post. About three weeks to a month ago I STOPPED following baseball. Period. I was so frustrated, I just couldnt take it.

 

I did that during all three losing streaks. I know the feeling. Pretty much I watched the first inning where they always fell behind, conceded the game, and turned the game off. But 6-1 on this trip has certainly brought back some excitement.

[biittner77]

I'd have an easier time believing the Cubs were going to keep playing well if they hadn't just spent this entire season alternating long winning and even longer losing streaks.

 

The assumption has always been that the East teams will continue to beat each other up. I've always believed that one of them will step up and start playing better. With the Mets fading fast, whoever has the most games left with them probably wins the WC. I hope it's the Phillies as I hate them the least of the contenders.

 

That being said, I'm gald to see the Cubs playing better.

[Fro]

Gotta love how this team comes back from the dead to possibly tease us.

[CubfaninCA]

Shhhhhhhhhhhhh :D

 

None of these teams will run away with it, but the Cubs starting pitching isn't strong enough.

[MPrior]

I don't remember who said it, but I agree with them: Let's just hope for the Cubs to finish above .500, so we can have back-to-back-to-back winning seasons (as long as none of the credit goes to Dusty). If we happen to fall ass-first into the playoffs as well (as that's the only way we're gonna do it), so be it. The other thing we can hope for is for Dusty to experience a revelation and give up baseball to found his own religion, and take Macias and Neifi along as his disciples. And oh yeah. Also for Hendry to pick up Brian Giles and (at least) some bullpen help.

[Backtobanks]

I don't remember who said it, but I agree with them: Let's just hope for the Cubs to finish above .500, so we can have back-to-back-to-back winning seasons (as long as none of the credit goes to Dusty). If we happen to fall ass-first into the playoffs as well (as that's the only way we're gonna do it), so be it. The other thing we can hope for is for Dusty to experience a revelation and give up baseball to found his own religion, and take Macias and Neifi along as his disciples. And oh yeah. Also for Hendry to pick up Brian Giles and (at least) some bullpen help.

 

Are you kidding me? If the Cubs get to .500, they will probably extend Dusty for 10 more years. He will get all of the credit, just like he has gotten most of the credit for the last 2 years of over .500 ball. I'm still watching and rooting for the Cubs, but any success will be proof that Dusty's the man and his system is working.

[frostwyrm]

Baseball Prospectus gives us a 1.03662% chance at the wild card, but not to worry. Last year, with about 10 days to go in the season they gave us a 70+% chance at the wild card, so what do they know.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php