Is Chipper Jones a HOFer?

[Sabermetrician]

Just arguing with a friend of mine and we disagree on this. One of us thinks Jones is a lock for a HOFer when he retires, the other says Chipper doesn't have the numbers to get there. What do you think?

[WindyCity]

Not yet -- but he could be if he has several more productive years before he retires.

[AAApittsburgh]

No, but I think Andruw will.

[treebird]

I say yes.

[ConstableRabbit]

Not yet -- but he could be if he has several more productive years before he retires.

 

I agree. He certainly has the awards (5 time all-star, 1999 MVP, and 2-time silver slugger), and I think he has the elite status many hall of fame voters look for. He's also been excellent in the postseason. It's still going to take a few more seasons to make his career numbers appear more top notch, (i.e. his 2,000th hit, 350th and 400th homerun, etc.)

[katway]

He's had a great career thus far, but I'd imagine he would need a couple more years before becoming a Hall of Famer. Had he given the same performance as a Yankee he would probably be a lock.

[imb]

I say yes without looking at his stats, so give me a sec and I might change my mind.

 

EDIT

 

3 or 4 more 300/400/500 30-100 seasons, and i think yes, he's in.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

He's a bubble candidate in my mind. I'd lean toward saying yes, but I still think it's a little close to tell.

[1908]

His move back to 3B certainly helps his chances.

[OleMissCub]

I think we'll see alot more of these bubble candidates i.e. 400 homers, 2500 hit type players as time moves on. These people 20 years ago would not be bubble candiates but sure fire inductees. But of course, the statistical climate has changed somewhat in baseball.

[rawaction]

I think he has Hall of Fame talent and numbers, but I don't know about the longevity. He's starting to become oft-injured. At 33 years old, I don't see it getting much better. He will finish with few than 110 games this year, after going on the DL for the first time ever last year. I think if he can stay healthy enough to get to 450 HRs (130 or so away), then he will be in.

 

As 1908 said, being back at 3B helps. Being a switch hitter helps also.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

His move back to 3B certainly helps his chances.

 

It definitely does. His numbers look much better if he is viewed as a thirdsacker instead of a left fielder.

[TC3_Hinrich12]

He would have to be a good player when he gets in the upper 30's to be in the HOF. I think he still has some work to do.

[reggiemiller rules]

While were talking about borderline HOF's what do you guys think about Edmonds chances if he has another 3 or 4 years of 30 to 40 HRs and 100 rbis he will have over 2,000 hits over 450 HR's and by that time he could have close to 9 or 10 gold gloves. I know hes not that well liked by Cubs fans but what do you think his chances are?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

While were talking about borderline HOF's what do you guys think about Edmonds chances if he has another 3 or 4 years of 30 to 40 HRs and 100 rbis he will have over 2,000 hits over 450 HR's and by that time he could have close to 9 or 10 gold gloves. I know hes not that well liked by Cubs fans but what do you think his chances are?

 

I'd say no.

[reggiemiller rules]

He has a chance to have more hits, hr, rbis then Duke Snider, and his average would be close to me if he does that with his Gold Gloves to he gets in. There is no saying that he will do that he would have to stay healthy for another 4 years but if he does adn puts up the numbers he has put up the last few years I think he has a chance.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'm going to say no on Edmonds as well. While he'll have some good numbers, considering the offensive explosion that occurred in the nineties, I think it's going to take more numbers than that to get in.

[Mark_R]

I'm going to say no on Edmonds as well. While he'll have some good numbers, considering the offensive explosion that occurred in the nineties, I think it's going to take more numbers than that to get in.

 

You were on the fence with Chipper yet you're against Edmonds? Chipper's OPS career is .938 and Edmonds is .928. Keep in mind that Chipper has been much more injury prone this season and the numbers aren't all that impressive. Moving to third does help Chipper, but what about playing CF for Edmonds? Centerfield is traditionally a more defensive position and 3B is typically viewed as a power spot, yet Edmonds has bucked that trend. If Edmonds stays healthy and puts up a 900+ OPS for another season or two, it'd be real tough to keep him out, especially if most who have responded thus far are in favor of Jones getting in.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm going to say no on Edmonds as well. While he'll have some good numbers, considering the offensive explosion that occurred in the nineties, I think it's going to take more numbers than that to get in.

 

You were on the fence with Chipper yet you're against Edmonds? Chipper's OPS career is .938 and Edmonds is .928. Keep in mind that Chipper has been much more injury prone this season and the numbers aren't all that impressive. Moving to third does help Chipper, but what about playing CF for Edmonds? Centerfield is traditionally a more defensive position and 3B is typically viewed as a power spot, yet Edmonds has bucked that trend. If Edmonds stays healthy and puts up a 900+ OPS for another season or two, it'd be real tough to keep him out, especially if most who have responded thus far are in favor of Jones getting in.

 

Position makes a huge difference to me. Granted, I haven't taken a close look at either's career, but I think Jones ranks higher up on the list of 3B than Edmonds is on the CF.

[reggiemiller rules]

I'm going to say no on Edmonds as well. While he'll have some good numbers, considering the offensive explosion that occurred in the nineties, I think it's going to take more numbers than that to get in.

 

You were on the fence with Chipper yet you're against Edmonds? Chipper's OPS career is .938 and Edmonds is .928. Keep in mind that Chipper has been much more injury prone this season and the numbers aren't all that impressive. Moving to third does help Chipper, but what about playing CF for Edmonds? Centerfield is traditionally a more defensive position and 3B is typically viewed as a power spot, yet Edmonds has bucked that trend. If Edmonds stays healthy and puts up a 900+ OPS for another season or two, it'd be real tough to keep him out, especially if most who have responded thus far are in favor of Jones getting in.

 

Position makes a huge difference to me. Granted, I haven't taken a close look at either's career, but I think Jones ranks higher up on the list of 3B than Edmonds is on the CF.

 

I disagree with the position statement, there is a much larger of active 3B who are in the same league if not better then Jones right now then there is CF who are close to Edmonds.

 

3B- Ramirez, Rolen ( when healthy), ARod, Chavez, Ensberg is even up there. And if your talking historically Jones is nowhere near as good as Santo or Schmidt or Robinson were.

 

CF that are in Edmonds league are Jones, Griffey are the only 2 up there. Edmonds is by no means Mays or Mantle. But I think that he would come close to cracking the top 10 in CFs all time with his stats at the end of his career.

 

I dont think that Jones will be near that as far as 3B.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Whether these things matter or not, Chipper has some things in his favor that Edmonds does not.

 

Jones has an MVP award, while Edmonds does not. Jones also at this point has a WS championship.

 

Both have numbers very similar to each other.

 

Most similar hitters to Jones:

Jim Edmonds (903)

Moises Alou (887)

Tim Salmon (883)

David Justice (872)

Dick Allen (871)

Vinny Castilla (866)

Shawn Green (857)

Mo Vaughn (848)

Albert Belle (847)

Ralph Kiner (843) *

 

Only one of those are in the HOF, but considering Chipper is a thirdbaseman that could help him. Notice Edmonds at the top of the list.

 

Most similar hitters to Edmonds:

Shawn Green (908)

Chipper Jones (903)

Tim Salmon (899)

Jason Giambi (894)

Wally Berger (885)

David Justice (885)

Hack Wilson (884) *

Larry Doby (882) *

Ralph Kiner (880) *

Carlos Delgado (878)

 

There are a couple more HOFers on that list and Jones is at number two. The next few years likely determine the fate of both players. Neither are locks and both are on the bubble. I think much of Jones's fate will hinge on whether he can finish his career with a BA over .300. While that doesn't mean all that much, it would stand out to the voters.

 

Jones's MVP puts him slightly ahead of Edmonds here. But when at the top of your similar batters is Shawn Green for Edmonds and Moises Alou for Jones, I have to wonder if defensive positions of third and CF are enough to separate them from the very good player class and elevate into the HOF class. Right now, I couldn't honestly cast a vote for either, though I'd be closer to casting a vote for Jones than I would for Edmonds.

[reggiemiller rules]

Those are all very good points Vance and your right it all depends on how they do the rest of their careers. Just a question do you think that having 7 gold gloves and he has a good chance of winning a few more makes up somewhat for an MVP. I know an MVP is clearly much better but if Edmonds gets 8 or 9 gold gloves that is also very impressive especially for an outfielder.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This is simplistic, but here's a comparison of Jones and Edmonds to HOFers at their position using OPS+.

 

3rd Basemen

Player Career OPS+

Mike Schmidt 147

Eddie Mathews 143

Chipper Jones 141

Frank Baker 135

George Brett 135

Wade Boggs 130

Jimmy Collins 113

George Kell 111

Freddy Lindstrom 110

Pie Traynor 107

Brooks Robinson 104

Ray Dandridge ? Negro Lgs

Judy Johnson ? Negro Lgs

 

Center Fielders

Player Career OPS+

Mickey Mantle 172

Ty Cobb 167

Tris Speaker 158

Willie Mays 156

Joe DiMaggio 155

Hack Wilson 144

Billy Hamilton 141

Duke Snider 140

Jim Edmonds 138

Larry Doby 136

Earl Averill 133

Earle Combs 126

Edd Roush 126

Kirby Puckett 124

Hugh Duffy 122

Richie Ashburn 111

Max Carey 107

Lloyd Waner 99

Oscar Charleston ? Negro Lgs

Turkey Stearnes ? Negro Lgs

Cool Papa Bell ? Negro Lgs

 

 

From this I'd say both have a case for the Hall, and Chipper's is much stronger. Still, I'm a little hesitant with Edmonds because over his career he's never really been the best at his position.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Those are all very good points Vance and your right it all depends on how they do the rest of their careers. Just a question do you think that having 7 gold gloves and he has a good chance of winning a few more makes up somewhat for an MVP. I know an MVP is clearly much better but if Edmonds gets 8 or 9 gold gloves that is also very impressive especially for an outfielder.

 

I don't think the gold gloves really make up for the MVP in the eyes of the voters, no. An MVP to the voters signifies that the player was the best player in his league for at least one season. While that may not always be true, it gives the voters a reason to say if he were the best for a time and then has good overall numbers that is why he's a HOF. Certainly not all MVP's will be HOF, but it greatly increases the chance.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

This is simplistic, but here's a comparison of Jones and Edmonds to HOFers at their position using OPS+.

 

3rd Basemen

Player Career OPS+

Mike Schmidt 147

Eddie Mathews 143

Chipper Jones 141

Frank Baker 135

George Brett 135

Wade Boggs 130

Jimmy Collins 113

George Kell 111

Freddy Lindstrom 110

Pie Traynor 107

Brooks Robinson 104

Ray Dandridge ? Negro Lgs

Judy Johnson ? Negro Lgs

 

Center Fielders

Player Career OPS+

Mickey Mantle 172

Ty Cobb 167

Tris Speaker 158

Willie Mays 156

Joe DiMaggio 155

Hack Wilson 144

Billy Hamilton 141

Duke Snider 140

Jim Edmonds 138

Larry Doby 136

Earl Averill 133

Earle Combs 126

Edd Roush 126

Kirby Puckett 124

Hugh Duffy 122

Richie Ashburn 111

Max Carey 107

Lloyd Waner 99

Oscar Charleston ? Negro Lgs

Turkey Stearnes ? Negro Lgs

Cool Papa Bell ? Negro Lgs

 

 

From this I'd say both have a case for the Hall, and Chipper's is much stronger. Still, I'm a little hesitant with Edmonds because over his career he's never really been the best at his position.

 

Excellent analysis. Also, don't forget that both will be penalized somewhat because of the offensive explosion during this time period. I agree that Edmonds will face a tougher task because he was never viewed as the most dominant player on his team. While he's very good, I don't know that he's ever been thought of as a guy heading to Hall. Because of that, he'll need, in my opinion, one of those gateway numbers...either a career 300+ BA, 3000 hits, or 500 HRS. He may get the average, but the other numbers are out of reach.