Murton

[YearofDaCubs]

Let's face it, Holla would not be a starting LF on any other team besides the Cubs. Murton SHOULD be playing but Dusty the moron has a different way of thinking. There's just so many things that bother me about Dusty.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm as excited as anyone about Murton, but I'd like to point out that he probably isn't a fix at this point. The knock on Murton before this year was his lack of power as a corner OF.

 

Murton's IsoP

 

2003: .111

2004: .145

2005: .156

 

He has improved each year, which is a very encouraging sign. However, it's still low enough that he's going to need to hit .300+ to crack an .800 OPS. Could he do that? Sure, but to expect that right away(if it ever happens) isn't wise, and Murton's performance shouldn't preclude us from acquiring a productive LF.

[ctcf]

What in the heck is IsoP?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

What in the heck is IsoP?

 

Isolated power: SLG-AVG

[Mark_R]

I'm as excited as anyone about Murton, but I'd like to point out that he probably isn't a fix at this point. The knock on Murton before this year was his lack of power as a corner OF.

 

Murton's IsoP

 

2003: .111

2004: .145

2005: .156

 

He has improved each year, which is a very encouraging sign. However, it's still low enough that he's going to need to hit .300+ to crack an .800 OPS. Could he do that? Sure, but to expect that right away(if it ever happens) isn't wise, and Murton's performance shouldn't preclude us from acquiring a productive LF.

 

What makes you so certain the power won't develop?

[CubsFaninPA]

Hate to ask this, but what kind of power can the Cubs expect from him? I haven't follow his stats in the minors.

[Warpticon]

To better explain what the stats mean, rather than what they are a combination of:

 

Batting average: Number of hits per at-bat

On-Base Percentage: Number of times on base per plate appearance

Slugging Percentage: Number of total bases per at-bat

Isolated Power: Number of EXTRA bases per at-bat.

 

Thusly, IsoP can be derived by either subtracting BA from SLG, or by dividing Extra Bases (TB - H) by at-bats.

[fiver]

Hate to ask this, but what kind of power can the Cubs expect from him? I haven't follow his stats in the minors.

 

Obviously, it will depend on how many PA's he gets, but I'd say we should expect less than 20 HR's per 500 PA's.

 

And...perhaps Murton can get some work against a ML right-hander when Kerry is ready for his next simulated game.

 

:roll:

 

..sorry, couldn't resist.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm as excited as anyone about Murton, but I'd like to point out that he probably isn't a fix at this point. The knock on Murton before this year was his lack of power as a corner OF.

 

Murton's IsoP

 

2003: .111

2004: .145

2005: .156

 

He has improved each year, which is a very encouraging sign. However, it's still low enough that he's going to need to hit .300+ to crack an .800 OPS. Could he do that? Sure, but to expect that right away(if it ever happens) isn't wise, and Murton's performance shouldn't preclude us from acquiring a productive LF.

 

What makes you so certain the power won't develop?

 

Maybe it will, but before this year, he didn't hit a lot of doubles, which are a good indicator of future power. This year he's hit more doubles, maybe that's an indicator that he's developing it. I really like Murton, he seems like a great guy from the chat he did, and I love what he's done at the plate so far. I'm just trying to give some perspective on the situation for when he's no longer hitting .450.

Edited July 27, 2005 by Transmogrified Tiger

[CubinNY]

I'm as excited as anyone about Murton, but I'd like to point out that he probably isn't a fix at this point. The knock on Murton before this year was his lack of power as a corner OF.

 

Murton's IsoP

 

2003: .111

2004: .145

2005: .156

 

He has improved each year, which is a very encouraging sign. However, it's still low enough that he's going to need to hit .300+ to crack an .800 OPS. Could he do that? Sure, but to expect that right away(if it ever happens) isn't wise, and Murton's performance shouldn't preclude us from acquiring a productive LF.

 

I understand what you are saying but you also have to take into account the overall team the Cubs have. All things being equal I'd like to have power at every position, but as we all know that is not what the Cubs need. We have been harping about OBP all season when we haven't been harping on taking pitches or what terrible people LaTroy and Corey are.

 

Long story short, Murton is exactly what the Cubs need right now. They need a guy to get on base infront of Lee et al. They don't need another Burnitz or similar player. Check that, a team always needs a big bopper but the issue at hand is OBP and Murton provides that.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm as excited as anyone about Murton, but I'd like to point out that he probably isn't a fix at this point. The knock on Murton before this year was his lack of power as a corner OF.

 

Murton's IsoP

 

2003: .111

2004: .145

2005: .156

 

He has improved each year, which is a very encouraging sign. However, it's still low enough that he's going to need to hit .300+ to crack an .800 OPS. Could he do that? Sure, but to expect that right away(if it ever happens) isn't wise, and Murton's performance shouldn't preclude us from acquiring a productive LF.

 

I understand what you are saying but you also have to take into account the overall team the Cubs have. All things being equal I'd like to have power at every position, but as we all know that is not what the Cubs need. We have been harping about OBP all season when we haven't been harping on taking pitches or what terrible people LaTroy and Corey are.

 

Long story short, Murton is exactly what the Cubs need right now. They need a guy to get on base infront of Lee et al. They don't need another Burnitz or similar player. Check that, a team always needs a big bopper but the issue at hand is OBP and Murton provides that.

 

I agree with what you're saying, I'm just saying that we shouldn't be so enamored with Murton that it keeps us from acquiring a bat.

[hawkeyecub]

I'm as excited as anyone about Murton, but I'd like to point out that he probably isn't a fix at this point. The knock on Murton before this year was his lack of power as a corner OF.

 

Murton's IsoP

 

2003: .111

2004: .145

2005: .156

 

He has improved each year, which is a very encouraging sign. However, it's still low enough that he's going to need to hit .300+ to crack an .800 OPS. Could he do that? Sure, but to expect that right away(if it ever happens) isn't wise, and Murton's performance shouldn't preclude us from acquiring a productive LF.

 

I agree. The power just isn't there now and he isn't going to be a savior for this team. Is he currently the best option for LF? Yes. He can still be a productive hitter with that lack of power and possibly improve this lineup slightly.

But we should still look for other options and if we can land a Kearns-type player who has room to grow and is young, we should do it.

 

If the price is too high, then let's see what Murton can do. But I think people are jumping the gun a little bit on what he can do this year. For all of his positives, he's looked overmatched in limited AB's against righties. We've discussed his lack of power, and while he runs well, he doesn't have blazing speed. Right now I don't see a great fit anywhere in the lineup for him. I suppose we could drop Hairston and go with Murton/Walker at the top.

[ZZ Thorn]

Let's look to the future: Murton could be I think a very good leadoff hitter or an excellent #2 hitter a la Todd Walker if he can hit righties well. He should get on base at a very good clip and be adept at the usual #2 hitter duties that make for consistent scoring.

 

But if our CF (Pie) and LF are our #1 and #2 hitters, our 2b and SS are going to have to have more pop than normal. I don't think it'll be a big problem tho, cuz they'll provide decent pop, and we get great pop from the corner IFs, have a very offensively productive catcher, and we could really upgrade with a power RF with the money we'll save from such cheap production at the other 2 OF spots.

 

A guy like Walker at 2b would be a spot to upgrade pop-wise, but 2b with pop are few and far between. If we don't go with Nomar next year but Cedeno, that spreads our pop even thinner.

 

There's no law that we can't not get great pop from our LF if he fills another role especially well.

'06

 

Pie

Murton

Lee

Aram

Kearns

Walker

Barrett

Cedeno (Nomar?)

 

What do y'all think of that lineup? That's a lineup with very good pop where it should be, good speed/OBP at the top and consistency throughout. Pie probably will have average OBP his rookie year, but we gotta take some lumps with him. Sure be nice if Nomar returns to form and we can bat him 5th or 6th.

[Brian]

Actually ZZ Pie is not projected to be a lead-off hitter (but neither was Corey, so...)

[Warpticon]

Hate to ask this, but what kind of power can the Cubs expect from him? I haven't follow his stats in the minors.

 

To better explain this, let's compare his current IsoP of .156 with some current major leaguers:

 

Derrek Lee: .355

Aramis Ramirez: .291

Alex Rodriguez: .277

JD Drew: .234

Bobby Abreu: .207

Melvin Mora: .194

Nick Johnson: .185

Matt Lawton: .169

Victor Martinez: .156

Aubrey Huff: .156

David DeJesus: .149

Marcus Giles: .149

Derek Jeter: .141

Jimmy Rollins: .134

Ichiro Suzuki: .130

Chone Figgins: .114

Omar Vizquel: .091

Juan Pierre: .081

Cesar Izturis: .058

Jason Kendall: .050

 

Given his potential to hit for okay power, high average, and get on base, with the addition of a little speed, he projects to be a lot like Eric Byrnes. If he can continue to hit .300+ perennially at the major league level and sustain an IsoP up into the .175 range, he could possibly be a star player in his prime.

[ZZ Thorn]

Actually ZZ Pie is not projected to be a lead-off hitter (but neither was Corey, so...)

 

I've never seen him anywhere other than 1/2. If he develops 30 HR power it's not going to be for several years IMO.

 

Dunn looks a lot better in that lineup than Kearns IMO.

[Warpticon]

Actually ZZ Pie is not projected to be a lead-off hitter (but neither was Corey, so...)

 

I've never seen him anywhere other than 1/2. If he develops 30 HR power it's not going to be for several years IMO.

 

Dunn looks a lot better in that lineup than Kearns IMO.

 

That's interesting, because before he got hurt, he was on pace for 25-30 homers this season.

[MembersOnlyJacket]

Murton reminds me a lot of Kevin Millar, but with above average footspeed. Millar was a 15-25 HR guy until this season with a lot of doubles. He walked enough to keep to keep the OBP in the .350-.370 range.

[ZZ Thorn]

Actually ZZ Pie is not projected to be a lead-off hitter (but neither was Corey, so...)

 

I've never seen him anywhere other than 1/2. If he develops 30 HR power it's not going to be for several years IMO.

 

Dunn looks a lot better in that lineup than Kearns IMO.

 

That's interesting, because before he got hurt, he was on pace for 25-30 homers this season.

 

But that's in AA - I think in the pros he's a few years away from that. If he starts next year I'd bet he hits less than 20 dingers. Long term tho, he could have Beltran like power production.

[Warpticon]

Actually ZZ Pie is not projected to be a lead-off hitter (but neither was Corey, so...)

 

I've never seen him anywhere other than 1/2. If he develops 30 HR power it's not going to be for several years IMO.

 

Dunn looks a lot better in that lineup than Kearns IMO.

 

That's interesting, because before he got hurt, he was on pace for 25-30 homers this season.

 

But that's in AA - I think in the pros he's a few years away from that. If he starts next year I'd bet he hits less than 20 dingers. Long term tho, he could have Beltran like power production.

 

Have you ever paid attention to minor-to-major power projection? There's little in Pie's profile to indicate he can't produce 20+ home runs in a full major league season. Most home run totals in the minors, even with sluggers, are considerably lower than their eventual major league production. 20 home run hitters in the minors are rare, and 30 home run hitters are extremely rare. Look up any of your favorite sluggers here and see how their minor league numbers stacked up to their major league power production.

[ZZ Thorn]

I don't doubt Pie's power potential, I just wonder how it will be for 2006. Seems like he'd be better served to be in the minors, but it also seems like the Cubs want him with the big club. And I don't think he'll hit 30 home runs next year.

 

Pie or Murton seem interchangeable to me 1/2 for 2006. You could make a case for either to leadoff.

 

One reason 30 and 40 home run hitters are rarer in the minors than one might think is cuz they get moved up before they finish the season.

[10man]

Look up any of your favorite sluggers here and see how their minor league numbers stacked up to their major league power production.

Player       Minors      Majors
Pujols      1HR/25AB     1/14
Bonds       1/20         1/13
Sosa        1/50         1/14
A-Rod       1/18         1/14
Palmeiro    1/36         1/18
M.Ramirez   1/15         1/14
Griffey     1/17         1/15

Edited July 27, 2005 by 10man

[Warpticon]

Yes, that's one reason, but it's not the biggest one. Just take a look. Pujols topped out at 19 in just under 500 ABs. Cabrera hit 22 between AA and the majors in '03. There are many other examples, but those are just a couple. It's much harder to find examples of players who were hitting homers at a greater pace than Pie has this season, other than your AAAA veteran types. Pie's future is more likely as a middle-of-the-order hitter, though he may end up as a leadoff guy in the short term.

 

And thus far it hasn't been really mentioned that the Jaxx play in a pitcher's league, which just adds more value to his production. Pie's added some weight (as is to be expected of a player his age and with his frame), gotten stronger, and a lot of his doubles/triples are going over the fence now. This is the typical development process of a power hitter, and what was expected 3-4 years ago when he was an extremely raw youngster who people kept likening to Vladimir Guerrero in terms of talent and potential. And really, I'd prefer to see him bat 6-8 in the majors until he improves his plate discipline some more (in fact, this is why I don't favor him being promoted unless he absolutely blows us away) or shows that he can consistently hit over .300 at the major league level.

[ZZ Thorn]

Yes, that's one reason, but it's not the biggest one. Just take a look. Pujols topped out at 19 in just under 500 ABs. Cabrera hit 22 between AA and the majors in '03. There are many other examples, but those are just a couple. It's much harder to find examples of players who were hitting homers at a greater pace than Pie has this season, other than your AAAA veteran types. Pie's future is more likely as a middle-of-the-order hitter, though he may end up as a leadoff guy in the short term.

 

And thus far it hasn't been really mentioned that the Jaxx play in a pitcher's league, which just adds more value to his production. Pie's added some weight (as is to be expected of a player his age and with his frame), gotten stronger, and a lot of his doubles/triples are going over the fence now. This is the typical development process of a power hitter, and what was expected 3-4 years ago when he was an extremely raw youngster who people kept likening to Vladimir Guerrero in terms of talent and potential. And really, I'd prefer to see him bat 6-8 in the majors until he improves his plate discipline some more (in fact, this is why I don't favor him being promoted unless he absolutely blows us away) or shows that he can consistently hit over .300 at the major league level.

 

I agree nearly completely. But for 2006 having him hit 1/2 would likely be a way to help teach him plate discipline and the art of hitting, as well as to optimize what he can contribute to the team.

 

I don't see Pie displacing Lee at #3, ARam at #4 or being a #5 hitter for a couple years at least tho. Let's say we get a real slugger like Dunn, which is very possible, Pie won't crack the middle of the order for several years then. He could be a #2 hitter a la Sandberg/Nomar next year and for years to come tho.

[burnt out cubbie fan]

Yes, that's one reason, but it's not the biggest one. Just take a look. Pujols topped out at 19 in just under 500 ABs. Cabrera hit 22 between AA and the majors in '03. There are many other examples, but those are just a couple. It's much harder to find examples of players who were hitting homers at a greater pace than Pie has this season, other than your AAAA veteran types. Pie's future is more likely as a middle-of-the-order hitter, though he may end up as a leadoff guy in the short term.

 

And thus far it hasn't been really mentioned that the Jaxx play in a pitcher's league, which just adds more value to his production. Pie's added some weight (as is to be expected of a player his age and with his frame), gotten stronger, and a lot of his doubles/triples are going over the fence now. This is the typical development process of a power hitter, and what was expected 3-4 years ago when he was an extremely raw youngster who people kept likening to Vladimir Guerrero in terms of talent and potential. And really, I'd prefer to see him bat 6-8 in the majors until he improves his plate discipline some more (in fact, this is why I don't favor him being promoted unless he absolutely blows us away) or shows that he can consistently hit over .300 at the major league level.

 

I agree nearly completely. But for 2006 having him hit 1/2 would likely be a way to help teach him plate discipline and the art of hitting, as well as to optimize what he can contribute to the team.

 

I don't see Pie displacing Lee at #3, ARam at #4 or being a #5 hitter for a couple years at least tho. Let's say we get a real slugger like Dunn, which is very possible, Pie won't crack the middle of the order for several years then. He could be a #2 hitter a la Sandberg/Nomar next year and for years to come tho.

A player doesn't learn "the art of hitting" from hitting in a spot in the batting order, ask Corey.