Bruce Levine Thinks NL Wild Card May Turn on Dunn Deal

[AAApittsburgh]

Burke is 25. Corey is 25. Who has had more success? You have prospect fever.

 

We don't need a guy who walks 100 times or hits 40 jacks, we need a guy that can get hit by a pitch, beat out an infield single, steal some bases, get dirty. Wood to Texas wasnt the purpose of my post, the purpose is that Dunn won't help anything and Murton may be more beneficial - plus we wouldn't have to trade anyone.

Umm, didn't Burke go to college? Corey didn't and he was brought up early. Burke spent one year in A, two in AA, and one in AAA. So I don't see your point. With that logic, you could say Todd Helton sucked at about the same age because he didn't prove anything at the major league level. If you took two different lineups, one with Dunn and one with Podsednik, the one with Dunn would score more runs over the course of a season. Dunn=more runs.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Even if Murton reproduces his AA numbers(very unlikely given his unsustainable BABIP), he still won't be as productive as Dunn. There's very few players in the league that produce more offensively than Dunn.

 

He doesnt have to repeat his AA numbers and hit 340. But if he can get on base, move runners over, hit to all fields - thats what we really need, and he can do it.

 

Having Dunn in the lineup would create more runs than any leadoff hitter in baseball. A guy like Podsednik or Pierre is not more valuable than Dunn. Hairtston is doing fine right now anyway. I wouldn't change the top of the order right now.

 

I disagree. Someone has to be on base for Dunn to drive in, haven't we gone over this ad-nauseum with Lee? Podsednik or Pierre - I would take them in a heartbeat over Dunn. It's not even close.

 

You realize Dunn has a higher OBP than both those guys? Right now Walker and Hairston are doing great at the top of the order, better than Pierre and likely Podsednik. Having Dunn over Pierre/Podsednik/leadoff guy will create more runs, it's basically a statistical certainty.

[JeffH]

On the off chance that the Cubs were to acquire Dunn, I would love to see him hitting second. I fear, however, that they would hit him fourth.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Does having a higher OBP mean you will score more? Not necessarily. It means you have the chance to score more runs. Running the bases, speed, and stealing all factor into it.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Does having a higher OBP mean you will score more? Not necessarily. It means you have the chance to score more runs. Running the bases, speed, and stealing all factor into it.

 

Baserunning has very little to do with it compared to how often you get on base and how good the guys behind you are at getting on base.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Does having a higher OBP mean you will score more? Not necessarily. It means you have the chance to score more runs. Running the bases, speed, and stealing all factor into it.

 

Baserunning has very little to do with it compared to how often you get on base and how good the guys behind you are at getting on base.

 

why do you put speedier guys on base in front of your 3-4-5 hitters? If you are on first and someone doubles, you may or may not score depending on how well you run the bases.

 

you know what the odds on getting back to back hits from your 3-4 hitters is? it's 9%, assuming both are hitting .300.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Does having a higher OBP mean you will score more? Not necessarily. It means you have the chance to score more runs. Running the bases, speed, and stealing all factor into it.

 

Baserunning has very little to do with it compared to how often you get on base and how good the guys behind you are at getting on base.

 

why do you put speedier guys on base in front of your 3-4-5 hitters? If you are on first and someone doubles, you may or may not score depending on how well you run the bases.

 

you know what the odds on getting back to back hits from your 3-4 hitters is? it's 9%, assuming both are hitting .300.

 

You don't put speedier guys in front of your 3-4-5, you put your high OBP guys in front of the 3-4-5. If they happen to be fast, it's a bonus.

[jtownie]

Does having a higher OBP mean you will score more? Not necessarily. It means you have the chance to score more runs. Running the bases, speed, and stealing all factor into it.

 

Baserunning has very little to do with it compared to how often you get on base and how good the guys behind you are at getting on base.

 

why do you put speedier guys on base in front of your 3-4-5 hitters? If you are on first and someone doubles, you may or may not score depending on how well you run the bases.

 

you know what the odds on getting back to back hits from your 3-4 hitters is? it's 9%, assuming both are hitting .300.

 

You don't put speedier guys in front of your 3-4-5, you put your high OBP guys in front of the 3-4-5. If they happen to be fast, it's a bonus.

 

Dusty is proving this....patterson is fast but can't get on base, thus we don't score runs. But he sure can get back to the dugout faster than anyone.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Does having a higher OBP mean you will score more? Not necessarily. It means you have the chance to score more runs. Running the bases, speed, and stealing all factor into it.

 

Baserunning has very little to do with it compared to how often you get on base and how good the guys behind you are at getting on base.

 

why do you put speedier guys on base in front of your 3-4-5 hitters? If you are on first and someone doubles, you may or may not score depending on how well you run the bases.

 

you know what the odds on getting back to back hits from your 3-4 hitters is? it's 9%, assuming both are hitting .300.

 

You don't put speedier guys in front of your 3-4-5, you put your high OBP guys in front of the 3-4-5. If they happen to be fast, it's a bonus.

 

 

i was assuming OBP was equal and we were debating baserunning/speed. having Dunn bat leadoff wouldn't be a good idea, agree? it would be wasted power yes, but you wouldn't put someone that slow in as leadoff (or as #2).

[AAApittsburgh]

i was assuming OBP was equal and we were debating baserunning/speed. having Dunn bat leadoff wouldn't be a good idea, agree? it would be wasted power yes, but you wouldn't put someone that slow in as leadoff (or as #2).

I wouldn't bat Dunn leadoff simply because his production is wasted there. Nothing to really do with his speed. He's not as slow as most think he is actually.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Does having a higher OBP mean you will score more? Not necessarily. It means you have the chance to score more runs. Running the bases, speed, and stealing all factor into it.

 

Baserunning has very little to do with it compared to how often you get on base and how good the guys behind you are at getting on base.

 

why do you put speedier guys on base in front of your 3-4-5 hitters? If you are on first and someone doubles, you may or may not score depending on how well you run the bases.

 

you know what the odds on getting back to back hits from your 3-4 hitters is? it's 9%, assuming both are hitting .300.

 

You don't put speedier guys in front of your 3-4-5, you put your high OBP guys in front of the 3-4-5. If they happen to be fast, it's a bonus.

 

 

i was assuming OBP was equal and we were debating baserunning/speed. having Dunn bat leadoff wouldn't be a good idea, agree? it would be wasted power yes, but you wouldn't put someone that slow in as leadoff (or as #2).

 

The speed doesn't really matter to me. I like Walker in the leadoff role, and he's probably no faster than Dunn(who apparently isn't completely lead footed). Obviously if OBP and other production was equal you want the speed near the top, but speed/baserunning is down the list compared to those other factors.

[ltb]

He's not as slow as most think he is actually.

 

correct.

dunn has surprised me with how fast he is for a guy that size.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

It's good to see that Dunn has a sac fly this year. Last year he didn't have any. :?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It's good to see that Dunn has a sac fly this year. Last year he didn't have any. :?

 

I don't mean this to be condescending, but many of these topics have been debated at length, particularly in the Adam Dunn thread in Rivalries. Perhaps reading them might help you out with the opposing opinion. I don't care one bit whether Dunn hits another sacrifice fly for the rest of his playing career.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

The speed doesn't really matter to me. I like Walker in the leadoff role, and he's probably no faster than Dunn(who apparently isn't completely lead footed). Obviously if OBP and other production was equal you want the speed near the top, but speed/baserunning is down the list compared to those other factors.

 

true. look at CPat this year before he was sent down. you have to get on base before you can use speed.

[Halman]

 

You realize Dunn has a higher OBP than both those guys? Right now Walker and Hairston are doing great at the top of the order, better than Pierre and likely Podsednik. Having Dunn over Pierre/Podsednik/leadoff guy will create more runs, it's basically a statistical certainty.

 

Agreed, let's not forget Pierre also runs out of alot of runs with bad alou like baserunning.

[burnt out cubbie fan]

Dunn is a really good number 3 hitter. He gets on base a ton and also slugs a bunch. I would gladly take him over Pods/Pierre in a second. Edited July 14, 2005 by burnt out cubbie fan

[fearthecubs]

It's good to see that Dunn has a sac fly this year. Last year he didn't have any. :?

 

I don't mean this to be condescending, but many of these topics have been debated at length, particularly in the Adam Dunn thread in Rivalries. Perhaps reading them might help you out with the opposing opinion. I don't care one bit whether Dunn hits another sacrifice fly for the rest of his playing career.

 

You can't be serious. Do you even notice that the Nationals are in first place by doing the EXACT OPPOSITE of what you just said? I guess a K is better than a sac fly, or moving runners over.

[burnt out cubbie fan]

It's good to see that Dunn has a sac fly this year. Last year he didn't have any. :?

 

I don't mean this to be condescending, but many of these topics have been debated at length, particularly in the Adam Dunn thread in Rivalries. Perhaps reading them might help you out with the opposing opinion. I don't care one bit whether Dunn hits another sacrifice fly for the rest of his playing career.

 

You can't be serious. Do you even notice that the Nationals are in first place by doing the EXACT OPPOSITE of what you just said? I guess a K is better than a sac fly, or moving runners over.

It is better than a double play. Also, let's see how long the Nationals stay in first place in that division. I think they are in 3rd or 4th by mid August.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It's good to see that Dunn has a sac fly this year. Last year he didn't have any. :?

 

I don't mean this to be condescending, but many of these topics have been debated at length, particularly in the Adam Dunn thread in Rivalries. Perhaps reading them might help you out with the opposing opinion. I don't care one bit whether Dunn hits another sacrifice fly for the rest of his playing career.

 

You can't be serious. Do you even notice that the Nationals are in first place by doing the EXACT OPPOSITE of what you just said? I guess a K is better than a sac fly, or moving runners over.

 

I'm not kidding, and I never said that. The Nationals are 16 games over .500 despite giving up 4 more runs than they've scored, that will likely correct itself over the course of the season. The fact is, if Sac flies happen, then fine, it's better than a K or another out. However, I'm not going to think less of any player who doesn't make a particular type of out.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Let someone else overpay for Dunn, and give me Kearns instead. I'll sign Giles as a FA in the offseason, and take my chances with a 2006 outfield of Matt Murton, Brian Giles and Austin Kearns. There's a TON of OBP in that group. Absent further trades, I'll use Dubois and Greenberg as my reserve outfielders, and let Pie play a full year at AAA before I make a decision on him.

 

I like Dunn's power and lefty bat, but with all those strikeouts and a poor batting average, plus his lousy defense and lack of speed, what is there to get all THAT excited about if he ever stops getting 100 BBs/season??

 

Suddenly, an Adam Dunn that gives you 40+ HRs and 100 RBI, but hits just .250 and has an OBP closer to .340 let's say (an entirely reasonable scenario)...well, that's a nice player I wouldn't refuse on my team, but I wouldn't pay the king's ransom the Reds will want for him.

 

Patterson for Kearns, we'll throw in a mid-level prospect like Pignatiello too. That's the trade I want to make, Kearns is cheap and he'll be valuable long-term.

[burnt out cubbie fan]

what is there to get all THAT excited about if he ever stops getting 100 BBs/season??

What makes you think that would happen?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Let someone else overpay for Dunn, and give me Kearns instead. I'll sign Giles as a FA in the offseason, and take my chances with a 2006 outfield of Matt Murton, Brian Giles and Austin Kearns. There's a TON of OBP in that group. Absent further trades, I'll use Dubois and Greenberg as my reserve outfielders, and let Pie play a full year at AAA before I make a decision on him.

 

I like Dunn's power and lefty bat, but with all those strikeouts and a poor batting average, plus his lousy defense and lack of speed, what is there to get all THAT excited about if he ever stops getting 100 BBs/season??

 

Suddenly, an Adam Dunn that gives you 40+ HRs and 100 RBI, but hits just .250 and has an OBP closer to .340 let's say (an entirely reasonable scenario)...well, that's a nice player I wouldn't refuse on my team, but I wouldn't pay the king's ransom the Reds will want for him.

 

Patterson for Kearns, we'll throw in a mid-level prospect like Pignatiello too. That's the trade I want to make, Kearns is cheap and he'll be valuable long-term.

 

Kearns has only produced one year of his major league career, and he did it at a completely unsustainable BABIP(.370s I believe). I find it very very unlikely that Dunn all of a sudden stops walking. Walk rate is one of the most constant and predictable statistics. As has been said before, Dunn is not "slow", although he's not going to break any land speed records. Despite his low batting average, he's one of the most productive players in baseball, and he's only 25, so there's a likelihood that he can/will improve that BA. Dunn's defense I don't really care about, his bat more than makes up for the marginal defensive downgrade he likely is.

[AAApittsburgh]

Dunn might not walk as much if he had Aram or Lee hitting behind him, but he'd see better pitches so his BA would probably rise. I think his OBP would stay about the same.

[abuck1220]

 

I like Dunn's power and lefty bat, but with all those strikeouts and a poor batting average, plus his lousy defense and lack of speed, what is there to get all THAT excited about if he ever stops getting 100 BBs/season??

 

 

dunn's not slow. 6, 8, 19 sb's over the past three full seasons.

 

and why would he all the sudden wake up with no plate discipline?