Cubs Offseason Mega Thread

[Jason Ross]

21 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

Has anyone seen any articles about other teams looking to make a splash or spend big in FA?

I know we've previously discussed the Padres and Dodgers as being candidates for tightening their belts, but it also seems we might be in for one of those one of those unofficially collusive offseasons in the leadup to the lockout where teams flat-out refuse to sign guys to big money deals and/or long-term deals.

I've thought about that. But we have seen a handful of articles that suggest teams will be aggressive before the lockout too. 

My hope is that we're seeing Ricketts play poor here pre-lockout in the thought of "we are going to be ownership-strong" and that is why we're hearing all of the "we are out" stuff. But I also know that's kind of the rosy-way to look at this. The Cubs deciding to get back under the LT, whatever the LT is, feels like it's equally a possibility. As does the Cubs thinking a bit that their model is right and they're going to outsmart everyone to a degree.

Brendan Miller mentioned the other day elsewhere that he had a fear that the Cubs' internal model is what keeps the ceiling a bit low and that they sometimes underestimate what bigger additions can do (re; Skubal) and I can see that playing a factor here.

[mul21]

24 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Jed has a 250m budget and a 10 war player and will struggle to put together a 90 win team. 

 

I'm a little surprised they're ready to throw Ayers into the fire, but im here for it. The slug disappeared at Iowa but the walk rate was still there, OBP was great. Hope he can quickly develop rapport with the staff, the defense is supposed to be really sound. 

I think we've heard the arm is good and the rest of the defensive profile is a work in progress. 

[Outshined_One]

5 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

My hope is that we're seeing Ricketts play poor here pre-lockout in the thought of "we are going to be ownership-strong" and that is why we're hearing all of the "we are out" stuff. But I also know that's kind of the rosy-way to look at this. The Cubs deciding to get back under the LT, whatever the LT is, feels like it's equally a possibility. As does the Cubs thinking a bit that their model is right and they're going to outsmart everyone to a degree.

My concern is this does not seem like a good offseason for them to follow their usual model of "wait out the market and sign/trade for a big name guy at the last minute" that's netted them Bellinger, Bregman, Swanson, and Tucker over the last few years.  It's one thing if you have an offseason with a handful of big name guys where there will inevitably be a straggler or two out there come February/March, but this offseason, it's basically Skubal, Seiya, Arozarena, and Good Luck.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Outshined_One said:

My concern is this does not seem like a good offseason for them to follow their usual model of "wait out the market and sign/trade for a big name guy at the last minute" that's netted them Bellinger, Bregman, Swanson, and Tucker over the last few years.  It's one thing if you have an offseason with a handful of big name guys where there will inevitably be a straggler or two out there come February/March, but this offseason, it's basically Skubal, Seiya, Arozarena, and Good Luck.

Yeah, I don't think it's a great market to do that, either. My hope was that where Jed really excels is with "deadlines" and that with multiple deadlines (CBA and whatever "Spring Training" will be) would give him multiple times to flex his muscles there. Initial reports don't make me feel comfortable with what the team feels like they're going to do in November, though, because it's been almost "we're out" talk and nothing that would even indicate the Cubs "in" on anything. And it'd be one thing if they were just out on a few guys, but it seems like every player they're out on right now and I'm not sure where that leads me to think they'll get much done in November.

Hope it's posturing but they rarely posture in the media.

[Bertz]

This market is deep and flat.  I don't think you can wait til post lockout to do all your shopping, but I do think you can hunt for deals and lean pretty heavily on your model.

Get 2 good SPs and your starting caliber OF pre lockout and then hunt for deals coming out of the break feels like a good strategy IMO.

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

The Athletic ran another article today. Source, For those who don't have access, a few hitters:

- The Cubs are highly unlikely to resign Suzuki
- Reunion with Happ possible on short term deal if his market is light
- The Cubs will check in on Sato but that will get too high for their comfort
- They won't involve themselves on Arozarena
- A "veteran" in the OF who will take 1 or 2 years is possible
- Team likes Shaw and Ramirez in the COF
- Bullpen is not a priority - but maybe another Maton level deal. 
- Catcher is not a priority - team likes Ayers "at the start of the season" 
- Maybe "budget will be there" for Kelly or another veteran

So far the reporting has been mostly "Debbie Downer" stuff, to be honest. I can't tell if the Cubs are playing a game where they are going to cry poor until a new CBA is in place as a negotiation tactic or the budget just really isn't there. But I'm not overly jazzed with what we're hearing so far. 

Sounds like theyre going to use 2027 as a bridge year for whatever the CBA outcome is.

Theyre not going to tie themselves into long term high salaries now, until they know if theres a floor/ceiling or Threshold they need to abide by.

Theyre either going to look for guys willing to sign for 1-3 yrs and or low salary, or trade for someone that still under team control(Arbs).

Look for the available players that would fit in the tier 3-5 level, and that likely where Hoyer will be looking for his new additions. 

 

[Rcal10]

21 minutes ago, Bertz said:

This market is deep and flat.  I don't think you can wait til post lockout to do all your shopping, but I do think you can hunt for deals and lean pretty heavily on your model.

Get 2 good SPs and your starting caliber OF pre lockout and then hunt for deals coming out of the break feels like a good strategy IMO.

I’m with you. Nothing said so far hinders the thought that they can have a good off season. There are just so many pitchers available, I don’t see a reason they can’t get 3 of them and spend $60M to do so. Skubal was a reach from the start. Don’t like that they already said they won’t look at him, but it is what it is. I would like Seiya, but if the plan is spending $60M on 3 pitchers it makes sense he isn’t likely. I have no problem with them not being interested in King or even Peralta(if they pass on him). Still good values on the pitching side. Gray, Rogers, Holmes, Soroka, Peterson, Flaherty, Pivetta, Mahle, May, Burbic, Mize, Taira, Griffin, Gausman, Imanaga, Boyd to name a few. There are probably a few more as well. Some people might not like. I get that. But there is a path to get 3 of these guys for $60M and have a decent staff. And if the budget is $90M there is enough money to add a few decent bats. 

[Nolo]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Gray, Rogers, Holmes, Soroka, Peterson, Flaherty, Pivetta, Mahle, May, Burbic, Mize, Taira, Griffin, Gausman, Imanaga, Boyd

There are 7 options you listed which would be fine/good options. Mostly middle or backend rotation guys. Still no true ace or even ace caliber, and sounds like they’re set on Shaw and Ramirez coming back which unless they’re going to give up a top prospect, a trade for an ace type pitcher is unlikely (not that Shaw/Ramirez could land an ace). They could still probably figure out a package for another #4 or #5 type…

But if they can sign 3 of those pitchers you mentioned, a couple of solid bats, and maybe a veteran catcher… Cubs could make another wild card push if there is a season. 

Edited 10 hours ago by Nolo

[Nolo]

Expected. Probably will bring his contract predictions back down to reality as I feel many of the projections have been made with “what if he starts”. He’s going to make a great Dodger or Yankee.

Edit: MLBTR projects $16M AAV (5 years 80 millions) sounds about right actually.

Edited 11 hours ago by Nolo

[Bertz]

FWIW, if we assume there's $100M to play with and the MLBTR contract estimates are gospel, this is what I'd do this winter:

Trevor Rogers - 5 yr / $115M

Kevin Gausman - 2 yr / $44M

Kaima Taira - 4 yr / $72M

Trent Grisham - 1 yr / $13M

Kris Bubic - 1 yr / $12.5M

Gary Sanchez - 1 yr / $5M

George Springer - 1 yr / $5M

And then maybe squeeze in someone like Pete Fairbanks or AJ Puk on a rehab deal if $$$ permits.

If money's a little tighter, say closer to $80M to spend, swap Bubic for someone more like Aaron Civale (1 / $4M?) and swap Rogers for someone like Holmes (3 / $45M) or Foster Griffin (3 / $39M).

But ultimately IMO it's a spread the money kind of winter both because of roster need and also because that’s what the market lends itself to.

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

FWIW, if we assume there's $100M to play with and the MLBTR contract estimates are gospel, this is what I'd do this winter:

Trevor Rogers - 5 yr / $115M

Kevin Gausman - 2 yr / $44M

Kaima Taira - 4 yr / $72M

Trent Grisham - 1 yr / $13M

Kris Bubic - 1 yr / $12.5M

Gary Sanchez - 1 yr / $5M

George Springer - 1 yr / $5M

And then maybe squeeze in someone like Pete Fairbanks or AJ Puk on a rehab deal if $$$ permits.

If money's a little tighter, say closer to $80M to spend, swap Bubic for someone more like Aaron Civale (1 / $4M?) and swap Rogers for someone like Holmes (3 / $45M) or Foster Griffin (3 / $39M).

But ultimately IMO it's a spread the money kind of winter both because of roster need and also because that’s what the market lends itself to.

That would be a fine off season for me. It would also put the Cubs as one of the top teams in the NL. And the best part is, there are so many other options to get them there as well. I know early reports are looking like the Cubs won’t do much. But nothing in those reports dispells this sort of activity. 

[Nolo]

Neck surgery is now looking “likely”

 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

2 minutes ago, Nolo said:

Neck surgery is now looking “likely”

 

I'm taking this as good news. It seemed like they had no idea what was the actual issue before, but now they've identified the cause and can fix it. Breathing in the hopium.

[chibears55]

8 minutes ago, Nolo said:

Neck surgery is now looking “likely”

 

Cubs news: Ben Brown underwent cervical spine surgery yesterday in New York to address his lingering neck issue. He is expected to start throwing early in the new year and should be game ready in the first half of the season.

[Nolo]

13 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I'm taking this as good news. It seemed like they had no idea what was the actual issue before, but now they've identified the cause and can fix it. Breathing in the hopium.

For sure, but depending on the type of surgery (decompression, fusion, etc) he may not even pitch next year. Opening day is for sure out if he goes under the knife.

Edit: just saw the comment from chibears about cervical spine surgery. Didn't realize he actually had the surgery yesterday. Assuming the report is correct, realistic math is:

• Throwing - early January
• Bullpens - February
• Live hitters - March
• Rehab stints - April/May
• Back on the MLB team - May/June

Could be worse. Cubs need to plan as if he's not coming back though. 

Edited 8 hours ago by Nolo

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

https://www.cubshq.com/cubs-baseball/news/ben-brown-undergoes-neck-surgery-timetable-for-return-revealed-34357

Not sure how reliable the source is but this guy says it's already happened.

[Nolo]

3 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

https://www.cubshq.com/cubs-baseball/news/ben-brown-undergoes-neck-surgery-timetable-for-return-revealed-34357

Not sure how reliable the source is but this guy says it's already happened.

Jesse Rogers reported it on X. See my edited comment above about expected recovery timeline.

Edited 8 hours ago by Nolo

[We Got The Whole 9]

23 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Cubs news: Ben Brown underwent cervical spine surgery yesterday in New York to address his lingering neck issue. He is expected to start throwing early in the new year and should be game ready in the first half of the season.

It's crazy how much differently I would have felt about this 12 months ago 🤞 

[Bertz]

50 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I'm taking this as good news. It seemed like they had no idea what was the actual issue before, but now they've identified the cause and can fix it. Breathing in the hopium.

Yeah.  Neck surgery in a vacuum is obviously not good news, but if my options are surgery recurring mystery injury I'm taking the former.

It also gives team building clarity.  Like with Horton you cannot count on him for next year, full stop.  You probably will get some innings and they're probably going to be good but it's essentially a hypothetical trade deadline addition.

[chibears55]

53 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

It's crazy how much differently I would have felt about this 12 months ago 🤞 

Right, hopefully this will solve the issue and he can be a reliable starter for the next 3-4 years or more with the cubs

Edited 7 hours ago by chibears55

[Stratos]

I think this is good news.  A surgeon found a problem with the neck and has hopefully fixed it.   Fingers crossed!  He wasn't going to pitch 160 innings anyways.

 

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

Yeah.  Neck surgery in a vacuum is obviously not good news, but if my options are surgery recurring mystery injury I'm taking the former.

It also gives team building clarity.  Like with Horton you cannot count on him for next year, full stop.  You probably will get some innings and they're probably going to be good but it's essentially a hypothetical trade deadline addition.

If Hoyer does use 2027 as a bridge year and doesn't go out and bring someone in long term, they could go with a probable Horton Brown and Wiggins as likely 3 starters that could be in rotation, along with possibly Townsend for 2028

Edited 5 hours ago by chibears55

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Found Sharma's source:

 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

If Hoyer does use 2027 as a bridge year and doesn't go out and bring someone in long term, they could go with a probable Higgins Brown and Wiggins as likely 3 starters that could be in rotation, along with possibly Townsend for 2028

Who is Higgins? 

[chibears55]

19 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Who is Higgins? 

Hes the pitching lab Frankenstein version of Horton and Wiggins 😅😂