Cubs Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[Stratos]

The Cubs had 95 pythag wins this season with a bad pitching staff.  If the Cubs had just average pitching this season they would ranked around 5th in runs allowed and had over 100 expected wins.

[Stratos]

On 10/26/2026 at 10:12 AM, Bertz said:

Honestly I think that rotation is probably quite good!  I'm sure people would complain about the lack of a fire breathing ace but I suspect that'd be a top 10 rotation.

I wonder how WAR changes in the playoffs.  In a 7 game series the top 2 SP will often start twice (game 7 often a bullpen game).  Leverage relievers seem to become more valuable in the 1st two rounds at least.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

This is semantics at this point, but I think you're not thinking about this right. Stratos is, I believe, saying that people generally use FIP or fWAR or whatever as a rough metric of the quality of a pitcher in terms of their ability to help their teams win, and the fact that those metrics don't consider something like the ability to hold runners would mean that the metric is an incomplete way to value a pitcher. 

Like, if you and I were pitchers and struck out the same amount of hitters, walked the same amount, gave up the same quality of contact, all the things that go into FIP, but then my stretch throwing motion was a second slower to the plate, the metric would have us as the same pitcher, but you would be better at helping your team win games.

At least, that's how I'm reading it. 

Yes that's exactly what I'm saying.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

The Cubs had 95 pythag wins this season with a bad pitching staff.  If the Cubs had just average pitching this season they would ranked around 5th in runs allowed and had over 100 expected wins.

While this is true for last year, in ‘27, most likely, they won’t have the top offense in baseball. To get to an average staff they will need to invest their money into pitching and leave outfield corners to cheap signings and/or guys like Shaw/Ramirez/ Alcantara. In all probability their offense will drop significantly. I think they still could be that 90 win team, but do it differently. But they have to be right with feee agents and they need positive answers for some of the guys we are questioning for next year. Guys like Brown, Steele and Cabrera. Maybe if everything goes well they can even get into the mid to upper 90’s in wins. But how often does everything go well for any baseball team? I don’t tbh k the team is doomed to fail. And so have some hope for next year. But, like I said, the FO needs to hit on most of what they do. 

[Bertz]

2 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

I really would like to see the team get quite creative this offseason. I'm not sure how right now, or what that looks like. It threads a really gnarly needle but the more I look at where the Cubs are as an organization, I do think they're kind of at a crossroads where they're trending more like the Phillies of recent years where I don't know where that team goes right now and how it grows. And I'd like to avoid that fate; and I think the way to get there is creativity and foresight. 

I actually think ironically trying to do too much is how you end up Dombrowski-ing this roster.

The Cubs were the top team in the league in position player WAR for players 25 and under.  And while there was one guy doing the heavy lifting there the fact is we have that guy and have him for a long time.  We're still 8th if you bump that filter up to guys under 30.  The Phillies are dead last by both measures.  

And the foot should stay on the gas.  The Cubs got 671 PAs out of Shaw, Mo, Ramirez, and Alcantara last season.  Obviously swap out Mo for Ayers, but the goal should be to double that next year even if it means the team wins 90 games instead of 92.

"Where do the gains come from?" is a really great question.  I think the answer is the kids and the farm.  Ideally it's direct: 22 year old Pedro Ramirez evolves into something more closely resembling Jose Ramirez.  But also if you don't go trading away a bunch of player assets to get a SP marginally better than what's on the FA market you're likely better equipped to make a big Kyle Tucker-esque swing next winter.

[Rcal10]

26 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I actually think ironically trying to do too much is how you end up Dombrowski-ing this roster.

The Cubs were the top team in the league in position player WAR for players 25 and under.  And while there was one guy doing the heavy lifting there the fact is we have that guy and have him for a long time.  We're still 8th if you bump that filter up to guys under 30.  The Phillies are dead last by both measures.  

And the foot should stay on the gas.  The Cubs got 671 PAs out of Shaw, Mo, Ramirez, and Alcantara last season.  Obviously swap out Mo for Ayers, but the goal should be to double that next year even if it means the team wins 90 games instead of 92.

"Where do the gains come from?" is a really great question.  I think the answer is the kids and the farm.  Ideally it's direct: 22 year old Pedro Ramirez evolves into something more closely resembling Jose Ramirez.  But also if you don't go trading away a bunch of player assets to get a SP marginally better than what's on the FA market you're likely better equipped to make a big Kyle Tucker-esque swing next winter.

You make a compelling argument and have changed my mind about trading young ML talent for a controllable starting pitcher. I am on board with buying pitching. I also like the idea of trading for the next Detmers (potentially). Someone who doesn’t cost too much farm assets. I agree they should hang onto Shaw and Ramirez. Maybe try another Garrett type of trade where you trade Triantos and someone else further down their prospect list for a pitcher who hasn’t  yet popped, but a guy they like. Fill in the corner and DH with Shaw/Ramirez/Alcantara and one or two cheaper signed platoon bats. 

[squally1313]

On the one hand, trading for 'the next Detmers' and paying for a non-elite starter or two sounds a lot like 'trading for Edward Cabrera and signing Shota Imanaga to a QO'. Definition of insanity, etc etc

On the other hand, this organization has essentially failed in any sort of approach to building a pitching staff (developing and maintaining internally, signing midrange starters, targeting tweakable guys) with the exception of actually paying for a big name, which admittedly doesn't seem likely here....so I don't really have a better answer. 

[Nolo]

Cubs have way too much money coming off the books ($100M+) to not be aggressive in the FA market. From a AAV standpoint it could break down like:

- Suzuki - $25M 

- Morejon - $20M

- Holmes - $22.5M

- Peterson $12.5M

- Skubal, King, or Peralta ($25-45M)

==============

$105M — $125M AAV

They have the money to make it happen without even increasing payroll that much year over year, relatively speaking.

Hell, even throw Conforto $7.5M a year to be DH while we are at it. 

Edited Tuesday at 11:03 PM by Nolo

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Heard some talk about trying to find "the next Detmers" Any ideas who that could be?

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Nolo said:

Cubs have way too much money coming off the books ($100M+) to not be aggressive in the FA market. From a AAV standpoint it could break down like:

- Suzuki - $25M 

- Morejon - $20M

- Holmes - $22.5M

- Peterson $12.5M

- Skubal, King, or Peralta ($25-45M)

==============

$105M — $125M AAV

They have the money to make it happen without even increasing payroll that much year over year, relatively speaking.

Hell, even throw Conforto $7.5M a year to be DH while we are at it. 

I don’t think they have as much as you say. And I don’t think they will go to the same as they spend this year. If I were guessing I would say there is little chance they go after Morejon and no chance they get Suzuki. I can see $80M to max of $90M spent. I can see Holmes and Peterson with one of those front line pitcher or Rogers or Taima. Maybe add a pen arm around $7m and fill in the bats with guys like Bell, Conforto, Ward, etc….. Maybe bring Happ back on a team friendly deal. 

[mk49]

10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t think they have as much as you say. And I don’t think they will go to the same as they spend this year. If I were guessing I would say there is little chance they go after Morejon and no chance they get Suzuki. I can see $80M to max of $90M spent. I can see Holmes and Peterson with one of those front line pitcher or Rogers or Taima. Maybe add a pen arm around $7m and fill in the bats with guys like Bell, Conforto, Ward, etc….. Maybe bring Happ back on a team friendly deal. 

Yeah, they should have a little over $85M space under CBT threshold.  

Does anybody think Peralta will need to sign a "prove it" deal?  Rays didn't really fix him.  They fixed only the four seam velo.  His K% is still low, and xFIP high.  I'm hoping we can get him with that kind of contract.  I don't think Jed will commit for 5yrs.

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, mk49 said:

Yeah, they should have a little over $85M space under CBT threshold.  

Does anybody think Peralta will need to sign a "prove it" deal?  Rays didn't really fix him.  They fixed only the four seam velo.  His K% is still low, and xFIP high.  I'm hoping we can get him with that kind of contract.  I don't think Jed will commit for 5yrs.

No. Peralta is going to get over $100m. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Who is Peralta's market going to be? Mets won't go there again, Dodgers/Yankees/Red Sox don't really need him. Orioles and Braves? Or does Reinsdorf finally open up the checkbook after the White Sox good season?

[mk49]

14 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

No. Peralta is going to get over $100m. 

If that's the case, I don't want him.

[mk49]

26 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Who is Peralta's market going to be? Mets won't go there again, Dodgers/Yankees/Red Sox don't really need him. Orioles and Braves? Or does Reinsdorf finally open up the checkbook after the White Sox good season?

My wild guess, Braves, Angels and White Sox.  I guess Padres could be it, if they can't keep King.

[Nolo]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

 I would say there is little chance they go after Morejon 

Would be a huge mistake. You need an Ashby, need a Uribe, need a Megille.

Morejon, Miller/Zeferjahn, Palencia. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Nolo said:

Would be a huge mistake. You need an Ashby, need a Uribe, need a Megille.

Morejon, Miller/Zeferjahn, Palencia. 

Mistake or not, I seriously doubt Morejon is a Cubs next season. 

[mk49]

12 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Mistake or not, I seriously doubt Morejon is a Cubs next season. 

100%.  Jed will never (maybe, not never😁) sign a RP with the high price tag.  Besides, RP isn't that high of a priority.  I have a feeling Morejon may not be that good next year, after pitching like 90 innings this year.

[Jason Ross]

10 hours ago, mk49 said:

If that's the case, I don't want him.

I also want little to do with him. Tampa made some meaningful changes, but even then the K% has not super bounced back. You can point to some things that suggest he probably was a bit better than some of the things suggested. He also got a massive boost from Tampa's defense and while the Cubs definitely can help there as well, I think there are better ways to spend this offseason. 

[Jason Ross]

9 hours ago, Nolo said:

Would be a huge mistake. You need an Ashby, need a Uribe, need a Megille.

Morejon, Miller/Zeferjahn, Palencia. 

Not really. They really help, sure. But this idea you need to chase trends or be someone else is how you end up behind. The Padres didn't win with Morejon or Miller, as an example. The Blue Jays were one out away from winning a WS last year with the 19th best BP. "But it was a reliever who gave up the home run". Yeah, off of Jeff Hoffman, who had a 2.1 fWAR season in 2024 and a 1.6 fWAR season in 2026. Hoffman was bad in 2025; because relievers are also very volatile.

I'd love Morejon because he's a good player. I also think the Cubs can be a very good team next year without him and if we're ranking needs, reliever is pretty low. Don't be a single-issue voter.

[Bertz]

12 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Heard some talk about trying to find "the next Detmers" Any ideas who that could be?

I made a post about a week ago

There's not anyone quite as obvious as Detmers, or Ben Brown for that matter, out there.  But largely you're looking for young-ish, good stuff, a good xFIP, and a horrible ERA.

A's and Twins each have a couple guys who fit this mold.  I really like Jack Perkins especially.  I suspect you put him in a legitimate MLB park in front of a legitimate MLB defense and he's a mid rotation starter tomorrow, with room for more.

[Nolo]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Don't be a single-issue voter.

I agree but I never said Morejon is the only player we need to target. I know we need at least one solid corner OF, possibly a DH bat, and sign 2-3 starting pitchers. Catching I am happy with Ayers/Amaya. But that lockdown bullpen arm is extremely important, I've watched every innings of the playoffs and all these teams have lockdown arms coming out of the pen. You need the stuff from both the right and left side, we have the right side stuff (Palencia, Zeferjahn, maybe Shelby Miller but he's aging). I don't want to take away from the season he had, but Ryan Rolison wouldn't make the roster on most of these playoffs teams.

If Cubs turn Palencia into the regular closer, then who's the guy who gets us to him? Who's the 1-2 knockout punch?  

You can say the Padres didn't win with Miller and Morejon, but they made light work of the Cubs in two and lost to the soon-to-be world champs in the NLDS. The champs that also have a lockdown pen.

Cubs have a lot of work to do this off season. We simply don't have the depth in the farm system right now in terms of pitching. Jaxon Wiggins has some work to do before he's a threat but he's the most promising to me.

Edited yesterday at 01:55 PM by Nolo
added comment about wiggins at end

[Bertz]

30 minutes ago, Nolo said:

I agree but I never said Morejon is the only player we need to target. I know we need at least one solid corner OF, possibly a DH bat, and sign 2-3 starting pitchers. Catching I am happy with Ayers/Amaya. But that lockdown bullpen arm is extremely important, I've watched every innings of the playoffs and all these teams have lockdown arms coming out of the pen. You need the stuff from both the right and left side, we have the right side stuff (Palencia, Zeferjahn, maybe Shelby Miller but he's aging). I don't want to take away from the season he had, but Ryan Rolison wouldn't make the roster on most of these playoffs teams.

If Cubs turn Palencia into the regular closer, then who's the guy who gets us to him? Who's the 1-2 knockout punch?  

You can say the Padres didn't win with Miller and Morejon, but they made light work of the Cubs in two and lost to the soon-to-be world champs in the NLDS. The champs that also have a lockdown pen.

Cubs have a lot of work to do this off season. We simply don't have the depth in the farm system right now in terms of pitching. Jaxon Wiggins has some work to do before he's a threat but he's the most promising to me.

The problem is twofold:

- Relievers are fickle and the odds that you'll get 2026 Adrian Morejon in 2027 are much lower than any of us would like

- The opportunity cost is a significantly better SP.  Basically would you rather have Morejon in the bullpen and Colin Rea in the rotation or internal options in the bullpen and someone like Clay Holmes in the rotation?  Morejon's salary is going to be right around $20M a year, it's a big commit

[Nolo]

55 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The problem is twofold:

- Relievers are fickle and the odds that you'll get 2026 Adrian Morejon in 2027 are much lower than any of us would like

- The opportunity cost is a significantly better SP.  Basically would you rather have Morejon in the bullpen and Colin Rea in the rotation or internal options in the bullpen and someone like Clay Holmes in the rotation?  Morejon's salary is going to be right around $20M a year, it's a big commit

Depends who the internal options are.

Brown I like in a 1-3 innings bridge role. I am worried his neck will keep flaring up if he starts; and even maybe in bullpen if he tries to gas it up more.

Zeferjahn historically has a high ERA for a bullpen guy but I like his stuff.

Palencia needs to embrace a closer role.

And if any of those three go down, then what?

I’d rather have a deep, lockdown bullpen and someone like Peterson starting if I wanted to find a middle ground between your options, although I don’t think it’s one or the other. $80-90M to play with in 2027 is enough to make 2-3 higher end pitchers and a solid OF bat happen. Give me that and I’ll take Shaw and/or Ramirez playing every day. Just please no BJ Murray Jr…

MLB starting pitchers averaged 5 innings pitched per game in 2026, that leaves 4 innings to shut it down.

Edited yesterday at 03:26 PM by Nolo

[Bertz]

16 minutes ago, Nolo said:

Depends who the internal options are.

Brown I like in a 1-3 innings bridge role. I am worried his neck will keep flaring up if he starts; and even maybe in bullpen if he tries to gas it up more.

Zeferjahn historically has a high ERA for a bullpen guy but I like his stuff.

Palencia needs to embrace a closer role.

And if any of those three go down, then what?

I’d rather have a deep, lockdown bullpen and someone like Peterson starting if I wanted to find a middle ground between your options, although I don’t think it’s one or the other. $80-90M to play with in 2027 is enough to make multiple big ticket players happen.

MLB starting pitchers averaged 5 innings pitched per game in 2026, that leaves 4 innings to shut it down.

The Dodgers signed Edwin Diaz, the top RP on the market last year, and he missed 2/3s of the season and had an 8.68 ERA when he did pitch

Prior to 2025, the Dodgers signed Tanner Scott, the top RP on the market that year.  He had a 4.74 ERA and 10 blown saves his first season in LA

Prior to 2024, the Houston Astros signed Josh Hader, the top RP on the market that year.  He had a 3.80 ERA his first season in Houston

Prior to 2023 the New York Mets signed Edwin Diaz, the top RP on the marmet that year.  He missed the entire season with a leg injury he sustained in the WBC

RP are super fickle, and unfortunately signing the top one in FA is not a direct path to getting a really good one.