Cubs Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

I've got one in the can. Website will post it when we get more into FA mode. 

I'm not Lance but it should give a fairly comprehensive breakdown. I spent hours digging on research, videos, data, etc. I believe it's over 2,000 words. 

There are good things. There are some flaws. Ultimately I think the two sides have a ton of common ground and expect there to be mutual interest. 

We should trust NPB statistics. We just need context. 

Besides waiting for your article, do you know why his HR/FB has been so ridiculously low?  Is it his ballpark, or the league in general?

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, mk49 said:

Because of the poor performance by Imai?  

Personally I'm not shocked by Imai's stats this year.   He had walk issues earlier in his career, and BB/9 often goes up when coming here   They have the bigger east-west zone over there.  Could need an adjustment period, or just usually stays a high walk guy.

I think he's probably about an average or maybe slightly above average SP.

[Geographyhater8888]

Adolis Garcia or Randel Grichuk as a cheap DH to start versus lefties?  
Not sure if Conforto was anything beyond a flash in the pan, but both had great platoon splits to split time at DH last season. 

Edited 18 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Jason Ross]

6 hours ago, Stratos said:

Besides waiting for your article, do you know why his HR/FB has been so ridiculously low?  Is it his ballpark, or the league in general?

Lots of reasons. A mix of what he does well, what the NPB isn't (a league with velocity), and the NPB ball being pretty dead right now in general. 

I'd expect he continues to limit home runs in the MLB pretty well, but not nearly as well in NPB for all of the reasons above. 

[Geographyhater8888]

Is a Suzuki extention a pipe dream? 4/$100 is beyond reasonable for his production. 
 

Edited 18 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Jason Ross]

19 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Is a Suzuki extention a pipe dream? 4/$100 is beyond reasonable for his production. 
 

Suzuki resigning is highly unlikely. The market will push his contract closer to Kyle Schwarber's from last year than I think people realize. There just aren't many good bats. And the Cubs have too much to do with their pitching staff. Sharma and Mooney have said as much, they are not winning a bidding war for him. 

I'd come to terms with the idea he won't be back. I think he might be the most unlikely pending FA to be back. 

[Geographyhater8888]

11 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Suzuki resigning is highly unlikely. The market will push his contract closer to Kyle Schwarber's from last year than I think people realize. There just aren't many good bats. And the Cubs have too much to do with their pitching staff. Sharma and Mooney have said as much, they are not winning a bidding war for him. 

I'd come to terms with the idea he won't be back. I think he might be the most unlikely pending FA to be back. 

Yeah, I’m thinking it’s closer to 5/$150. It’ll be tough losing a 130 wRC+ bat. Did Sharma and Mooney allude to their plan for the outfield? 

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Yeah, I’m thinking it’s closer to 5/$150. It’ll be tough losing a 130 wRC+ bat. Did Sharma and Mooney allude to their plan for the outfield? 

Nope. Just that they were unlikely to win a bidding war there. 

I would expect them to throw numbers at the situation more than anything. But it'll depend on the budget. It's a lot easier to justify bringing in an OF at $15-$18m if you have $100m to spend this off-season versus $70m. 

I'll be keeping an eye on what they do with Rea and Steele as some early signs. Like if they non-tender Steele and his (maybe) $7m it could be to clear extra space under that first LT ($70m budget) as a bad sign. Could also be they just think he's toasted, too, so it's not a fool proof sign. It's hard to know what Rickets is going to do here. A lot of us assumed he would stick under the LT last year and he went over. Could be he goes back under. Could be he gets a bug in his ass to get more of that playoff exposure and gives them a boost. 

[Geographyhater8888]

10 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Nope. Just that they were unlikely to win a bidding war there. 

I would expect them to throw numbers at the situation more than anything. But it'll depend on the budget. It's a lot easier to justify bringing in an OF at $15-$18m if you have $100m to spend this off-season versus $70m. 

I'll be keeping an eye on what they do with Rea and Steele as some early signs. Like if they non-tender Steele and his (maybe) $7m it could be to clear extra space under that first LT ($70m budget) as a bad sign. Could also be they just think he's toasted, too, so it's not a fool proof sign. It's hard to know what Rickets is going to do here. A lot of us assumed he would stick under the LT last year and he went over. Could be he goes back under. Could be he gets a bug in his ass to get more of that playoff exposure and gives them a boost. 

The Brewers are going to win the World Series this year, so I’d hope he’s fed up enough to open his wallet for Skubal. Their farm system is too depleted to trade for anyone that matters. 
Assuming it’s the same old Cubs then bringing back Happ and signing Ward is an option or they’ll sign a combination of cheaper position players with good platoon splits. Taylor, Conforto, Adolis Garcia, Randel Grichuk (DH/1st base options), plus Happ seems like the path they’d take to split time with Shaw. Not many lefty bats available.

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

The Brewers are going to win the World Series this year, so I’d hope he’s fed up enough to open his wallet for Skubal. Their farm system is too depleted to trade for anyone that matters. 
Assuming it’s the same old Cubs then bringing back Happ and signing Ward is an option or they’ll sign a combination of cheaper position players with good platoon splits. Taylor, Conforto, Adolis Garcia, Randel Grichuk (DH/1st base options), plus Happ seems like the path they’d take to split time with Shaw. Not many lefty bats available.

I don't think Ricketts cares the Brewers are winning. Fans do. He cares about profits. If winning more playoff games makes the Cubs more profitable that's what matters. Who is winning is likely immaterial to someone like Tom. This is a business to him. 

But I don't think "same old Cubs" means much. We probably don't give Hoyer enough credit here. He traded for one year of Tucker two years ago; no one had that on the bingo card. He signed Bregman to the biggest deal in a half decade, using deferred money; no one had that on the bingo card. He traded prospects for rentals at the deadline. 

Hoyer has flaws. He's probably in a "proof of concept" off-season where 89 wins and a NL Wild Card Round exit isn't good enough for 2027. But I don't really understand the "same old Cubs" stuff, either. We gotta stop being so defeatest. 

Hoyer has a lot to do this off-season and has to do it fast with the CBA knocking time off. I'm not sure he's going to get it all done with what needs to happen. But I don't think "same old Cubs" is either rooter in reality or fair. If there's one thing, we can usually expect one unexpected thing out of Hoyer an off-season. 

[Geographyhater8888]

20 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I don't think Ricketts cares the Brewers are winning. Fans do. He cares about profits. If winning more playoff games makes the Cubs more profitable that's what matters. Who is winning is likely immaterial to someone like Tom. This is a business to him. 

But I don't think "same old Cubs" means much. We probably don't give Hoyer enough credit here. He traded for one year of Tucker two years ago; no one had that on the bingo card. He signed Bregman to the biggest deal in a half decade, using deferred money; no one had that on the bingo card. He traded prospects for rentals at the deadline. 

Hoyer has flaws. He's probably in a "proof of concept" off-season where 89 wins and a NL Wild Card Round exit isn't good enough for 2027. But I don't really understand the "same old Cubs" stuff, either. We gotta stop being so defeatest. 

Hoyer has a lot to do this off-season and has to do it fast with the CBA knocking time off. I'm not sure he's going to get it all done with what needs to happen. But I don't think "same old Cubs" is either rooter in reality or fair. If there's one thing, we can usually expect one unexpected thing out of Hoyer an off-season. 

Same old Cubs wasn’t pejoratively directed at Jed. We know he has financial constraints. Neither is calling an 890 BABIP of whatever the Same old Brewers. The Cubs probably won’t go over the first threshold and that means Suzuki won’t be a Cub. That’s what’s we all expect.

 

Edited 16 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Same old Cubs wasn’t meant pejoratively. Neither is calling an 890 BABIP of whatever the Same old Brewers. The Cubs probably won’t go over the first threshold and that means Suzuki won’t be a Cub. That’s what’s we all expect.

 

Well, if they aren't going over the LT at all next year, than they have less than $70m to spend in total. They need at least two hitters and 3 SP and probably some version of a catcher. They wouldn't be really able to spend money on Happ either if they're going to seriously attempt to address the SP issue. 

[Geographyhater8888]

10 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Well, if they aren't going over the LT at all next year, than they have less than $70m to spend in total. They need at least two hitters and 3 SP. They wouldn't be really able to spend money on Happ either. 

The second threshold, you’re right. They’ll need to go over the second threshold so that extending Seiya is more than a pipe dream, either way. 

Edited 16 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Jason Ross]

24 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

The second threshold, you’re right. They’ll need to go over the second threshold so that extending Seiya is more than a pipe dream, either way. 

Yeah, I think they almost do have to go over the LT and then close to the second. Once you go over it, you might as well go to the second because there's nothing but taxes on your overages. If you have $70m to grab what you need, it's going to be tricky without having a farm system that you feel very confident about trading from. I thought there was overlap between some prospects but they cleared that out with Rojas and Ballesteros being traded. So you're probably at a place where you're not really going to make a prospect for player trade right now. I also don't know if Shaw or Ramriez is getting you the kind of SP you want for either right now. So your money is going to have to do the talking. Either because you're in FA or taking salary dumps. 

Like imagine you QO (and he accepts Boyd) at $23m, sign another SP for $18m (like Taira) and then Peterson at $14m). Backfill with Cabrera, Rea, Assad. And then you hope Justin Steele is like, Justin Steele? And maybe you get Brown or Horton in the rotation? But that's three guys you cannot count on and I think you have to plan to get nothing from. That's $55m gone and you still don't have any additions to the LF/RF/DH mix or C. And I'm not sure I really like that rotation very much!

[Geographyhater8888]

18 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Yeah, I think they almost do have to go over the LT and then close to the second. If you have $70m to grab what you need, it's going to be tricky without having a farm system that you feel very confident about trading from. I thought there was overlap between some prospects but they cleared that out with Rojas and Ballesteros being traded. So you're probably at a place where you're not really going to make a prospect for player trade right now. I also don't know if Shaw or Ramriez is getting you the kind of SP you want for either right now. So your money is going to have to do the talking. Either because you're in FA or taking salary dumps. 

Like imagine you QO (and he accepts Boyd) at $23m, sign another SP for $18m (like Taira) and then Peterson at $14m). Backfill with Cabrera, Rea, Assad. That's $55m gone and you still don't have any additions to the LF/RF/DH mix or C. 

You can navigate this by giving Seiya extra years to lower his AAV, which comes with its own risks, or deferred money, and we don’t know how the new CBA will impact deferrals, or whether or not Tom would even green light that. You’d hope that Braxton Garrett can replace Rea or any veteran innings eater, but that’s assuming a lot.

Chances are, none of the above happen. 

Edited 15 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

You can navigate this by giving Seiya extra years to lower his AAV, which comes with its own risks, or deferred money, and we don’t know how the new CBA will impact deferrals, or whether or not Tom would even green light that. You’d hope that Braxton Garrett can replace Rea or any veteran innings eater, but that’s assuming a lot.

Chances are, none of the above happen. 

Deferred money doesn't affect the LT. It's why Ohtani isn't $1m against the LT. And it's probably not a smart idea to add more than five years to a contract for an OF'er like Suzuki. He had a great year defensively but wasn't always seen as a top-MLB defender even by the Cubs. He's had a few knee issues. And bats don't hold up much past 35 or 36 right now. 

I just don't see it happening. 

[Bertz]

The old adage of "it's better to get rid of a guy a year too early rather than a year too late" feels pretty apt for the Suzuki situation 

[Rcal10]

33 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The old adage of "it's better to get rid of a guy a year too early rather than a year too late" feels pretty apt for the Suzuki situation 

How about if they let him go 3 years too early? Is that better than one year too late? 
I know they aren’t going to sign him and they need to spend money on pitching. I am ok with that. But I don’t agree that he only has one good year left. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Deferred money doesn't affect the LT. It's why Ohtani isn't $1m against the LT. And it's probably not a smart idea to add more than five years to a contract for an OF'er like Suzuki. He had a great year defensively but wasn't always seen as a top-MLB defender even by the Cubs. He's had a few knee issues. And bats don't hold up much past 35 or 36 right now. 

I just don't see it happening. 

But what is Ohtani against the LT? He for $700M/10 years. He isn’t $70M against the LT. I seem to remember he was being counted at around $46M. Am I wrong about this? If not, deferrals can matter. His is ridiculously extreme and I am not advocating something like that for Suzuki (who I agree, they won’t sign) or anyone. But they can move the needle a few million if a team is trying to stay under a certain threshold. 
I can see the Cubs doing it with a top end starting pitcher, as an example. Skubal, please……🤞

 

[Bertz]

15 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

How about if they let him go 3 years too early? Is that better than one year too late? 
I know they aren’t going to sign him and they need to spend money on pitching. I am ok with that. But I don’t agree that he only has one good year left. 

No I'm not particularly worried about missing 35 year old Seiya Suzuki

[mul21]

2 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Deferred money doesn't affect the LT. It's why Ohtani isn't $1m against the LT. And it's probably not a smart idea to add more than five years to a contract for an OF'er like Suzuki. He had a great year defensively but wasn't always seen as a top-MLB defender even by the Cubs. He's had a few knee issues. And bats don't hold up much past 35 or 36 right now. 

I just don't see it happening. 

That's just not accurate.  They use the current day value of those dollars to do the LT calculation, which is why Ohtani counts for like $38 million against the cap instead of the annual average of $70 million the contract comes out to before factoring in deferrals.

[macarthur31]

15 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

I've got one in the can. Website will post it when we get more into FA mode. 

I'm not Lance but it should give a fairly comprehensive breakdown. I spent hours digging on research, videos, data, etc. I believe it's over 2,000 words. 

There are good things. There are some flaws. Ultimately I think the two sides have a ton of common ground and expect there to be mutual interest. 

We should trust NPB statistics. We just need context. 

I had shared this on another thread (or this one?) - but bringing it back up.  Note:  I know it's just one guy, but Shota's last 3 years in NPB compared to his 3 years with the Cubs are pretty comparable.  (Though, of course, the HR Rate was doubled over here.)

 

 

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Is a Suzuki extention a pipe dream? 4/$100 is beyond reasonable for his production. 
 

He gone!

[Jason Ross]

19 minutes ago, macarthur31 said:

I had shared this on another thread (or this one?) - but bringing it back up.  Note:  I know it's just one guy, but Shota's last 3 years in NPB compared to his 3 years with the Cubs are pretty comparable.  (Though, of course, the HR Rate was doubled over here.)

 

 

Yeah there are a lot of ways we can look at NPB numbers. It's hard to always get a 1:1 on things but things such as groundball rate and fly ball rate, for one, are super consistent. Hell, they're consistent from Triple-A to the MLB too because they deal with a lot of pitch type, mix and shape and those don't really change much (they will as they go from NPB ball to MLB, but outside of that it shouldn't change much). 

There are others that we should be more wary of. Like, I'll let the cat out of the bag, I like Kaima Taira a good bit after a few hours of video and research but his fastball whiff% isn't going to stick at the MLB level. A 95mph heater in Japan is top of the chart. At the MLB level it's average. There are aspects of it that make it better than average, I think, but I'd be a bit worried about it. 

[Rcal10]

31 minutes ago, Bertz said:

No I'm not particularly worried about missing 35 year old Seiya Suzuki

Me neither. But Seiya at 32,33, and 34 can still be a very productive player. He turns 33 in late August. So, that is 3 years before he is 35. Again, I understand not signing him. I just don’t think the “old adage” applies here. They aren’t letting him go one year too early. More likely it is 3 years early.
He is still very good and IMO will be very good for a few more years. They just need to allocate money differently. Which I am fine with. Doesn’t rally matter. As Statos said “He gone!”