The Crazy PCA Stats and Tidbits Thread

[Javy Is Still a Cub 2]

17 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

 

PCA has more career fWAR as a Cub than the following players:

Alfonso Soriano
Ryan Dempster
Mark Prior
Andre Dawson
Jon Lester
Rogers Hornsby
Willson Contreras
Bruce Sutter
Lee Smith
Leon Durham
Randy Hundley
Starlin Castro

Up next: Hank Sauer, Ken Holtzman, Jake Arrieta, Javier Baez

 

 

This is why WAR is obviously such a failed stat:

Andre Dawson won the MVP in 1987, bashing the most home runs in the NL in 20 years, leading the league in total bases and RBI (even though he was on a last-place team), and game-winning RBI (a stat they don't seem to care about anymore but which used to be on baseball cards and, again, on a last-place team. Hey, what's clutch? Ah, that's a phony, outdated concept, right...).

He won the gold glove (one of his eight) yet Fangraphs and Baseball Reference both have him as a negative defender that year (FG for his entire career, BR has him almost neutral for his career...). LOL, the idea that Dawson was a negative or neutral defender 1987 is simply absurd - nobody ran on him, as he had one of the truly best arms of his era, even if his mobility wasn't what it used to be, thanks to Montreal's turf; he threw out lazy batters at first that year.

But what's even more absurd? Telling me that PCA's 2026 season is worth 3x of Dawson's 1987 season. FG has Dawson's '87 campaign as worth 3.5 wins, Pete is at 10.4 fwar. 

Don't get me started on Bruce Sutter. You're saying that PCA 2026 is better than the two years Sutter finished in the top 7 in voting... MVP voting?! (He did win a mere Cy Young with the Cubs.)

Ok, you'll say relief pitchers aren't as important as everyday players. Fine. PCA's 2026 campaign is worth more than Sutter's whole Cub career, even if we add in his other two all-star campaigns, one of which garnered top-20 MPV votes?

Negatory. Mucho negatory. 

Obviously, a big part for those who say that WAR is so solid is that people didn't know how to value players back in the day. But if you're saying PCA is worth 3.5 Dawson 1987s... you weren't watching in 1987, for sure. Dawson dominated the game day in and day out - this was a terrible team and you only had to stop Dawson, but they couldn't. Or you're also saying that Sutter's '79 Cy and Dawson's '87 MVP should have gone elsewhere but... that wasn't the consensus then. Or you're saying that 1987 was just a bad year for baseball... so bad that its MVP had 1/3rd the impact of 2026's.

Or you're saying something that is... I dunno, but 3x the season as Dawson's 1987 can't be right. 

And yet baseball's stat nerds - so uniquely nerdy and as fundamentalist as has ever existed - will believe that it is... because the stat says so. 

Great thread, great PCA campaign - but the WAR-love is clearly out of control. 

[Jason Ross]

37 minutes ago, Javy Is Still a Cub 2 said:

This is why WAR is obviously such a failed stat:

Andre Dawson won the MVP in 1987, bashing the most home runs in the NL in 20 years, leading the league in total bases and RBI (even though he was on a last-place team), and game-winning RBI (a stat they don't seem to care about anymore but which used to be on baseball cards and, again, on a last-place team. Hey, what's clutch? Ah, that's a phony, outdated concept, right...).

He won the gold glove (one of his eight) yet Fangraphs and Baseball Reference both have him as a negative defender that year (FG for his entire career, BR has him almost neutral for his career...). LOL, the idea that Dawson was a negative or neutral defender 1987 is simply absurd - nobody ran on him, as he had one of the truly best arms of his era, even if his mobility wasn't what it used to be, thanks to Montreal's turf; he threw out lazy batters at first that year.

But what's even more absurd? Telling me that PCA's 2026 season is worth 3x of Dawson's 1987 season. FG has Dawson's '87 campaign as worth 3.5 wins, Pete is at 10.4 fwar. 

Don't get me started on Bruce Sutter. You're saying that PCA 2026 is better than the two years Sutter finished in the top 7 in voting... MVP voting?! (He did win a mere Cy Young with the Cubs.)

Ok, you'll say relief pitchers aren't as important as everyday players. Fine. PCA's 2026 campaign is worth more than Sutter's whole Cub career, even if we add in his other two all-star campaigns, one of which garnered top-20 MPV votes?

Negatory. Mucho negatory. 

Obviously, a big part for those who say that WAR is so solid is that people didn't know how to value players back in the day. But if you're saying PCA is worth 3.5 Dawson 1987s... you weren't watching in 1987, for sure. Dawson dominated the game day in and day out - this was a terrible team and you only had to stop Dawson, but they couldn't. Or you're also saying that Sutter's '79 Cy and Dawson's '87 MVP should have gone elsewhere but... that wasn't the consensus then. Or you're saying that 1987 was just a bad year for baseball... so bad that its MVP had 1/3rd the impact of 2026's.

Or you're saying something that is... I dunno, but 3x the season as Dawson's 1987 can't be right. 

And yet baseball's stat nerds - so uniquely nerdy and as fundamentalist as has ever existed - will believe that it is... because the stat says so. 

Great thread, great PCA campaign - but the WAR-love is clearly out of control. 

Honestly, this just reads as "I don't really understand WAR because it goes against my world view".  

We can find some flaws within WAR, we can find different ways to calculate it (bWAR and fWAR for example). Nothing is perfect, there is no silver bullet. But I think it's probably best to start from an understanding of fWAR and what it does before we start throwing anecdotal "what aboutisms" around.

[Banedon]

Would we rather he have him overtake Schwarber in HR's, or get those extra 3 steals?

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Banedon said:

Would we rather he have him overtake Schwarber in HR's, or get those extra 3 steals?

Easy answer for me. 3 steals. 

[mul21]

30 minutes ago, Banedon said:

Would we rather he have him overtake Schwarber in HR's, or get those extra 3 steals?

[bukie]

37 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Honestly, this just reads as "I don't really understand WAR because it goes against my world view".  

We can find some flaws within WAR, we can find different ways to calculate it (bWAR and fWAR for example). Nothing is perfect, there is no silver bullet. But I think it's probably best to start from an understanding of fWAR and what it does before we start throwing anecdotal "what aboutisms" around.

"WAR is a failed stat, it can't compare to GWRBI, Gold Gloves, and MVP voting numbers" feels like such an obvious troll bait post I refuse to believe that is real. Especially from "Javy is still a Cub 2".

[Geographyhater8888]

1 hour ago, Javy Is Still a Cub 2 said:

Hey, what's clutch? Ah, that's a phony, outdated concept, right...).

Paul Skenes won the Cy young a war with a 10-10 record. 6.5 war my ass, it should be 0.

Edited 7 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

33 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Easy answer for me. 3 steals. 

Home runs if you value the 4th seed. 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Home runs if you value the 4th seed. 

That is true. I was answering strictly on PCA achievements. Not the team achievements. From an individual standpoint, 40/40 is a greater accomplishment than leading the league in homers. Someone does that every year. 
But, obviously when he comes up I like homers more than singles or walks and then a SB. 

[Javy Is Still a Cub 2]

14 minutes ago, bukie said:

"WAR is a failed stat, it can't compare to GWRBI, Gold Gloves, and MVP voting numbers" feels like such an obvious troll bait post I refuse to believe that is real. Especially from "Javy is still a Cub 2".

It's not troll bait? It's a statistical analysis of a statistic: WAR is saying that PCA's 2026 season is 3x better than Dawson's 1987 MVP season.

I mean... that's just absurd, right? Dawson's couple dozen less SBs, 50 or so less walks, 5 more homers and gold glove D is worth just 33% of PCA's season?

Ergo, and e pluribus unum: the problem is the statistic itself.

So I really don't think the problem with is my "worldview", either? Not trolling, not my worldview. Bottom line: if anyone can explain how Dawson needs 3 1987s to match 1 PCA 2026... I mean... if Dawson did that he would be in the HOF (oh wait he is).

This isn't taking away from PCA at all - it's taking away from WAR. 

[Geographyhater8888]

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

That is true. I was answering strictly on PCA achievements. Not the team achievements. From an individual standpoint, 40/40 is a greater accomplishment than leading the league in homers. Someone does that every year. 
But, obviously when he comes up I like homers more than singles or walks and then a SB. 

One will help him accrue 11 war and break the Cubs single season record more than stolen bases. 11 war is rarer than 40-40 seasons. Acuna went 40/70 and Ohtani went 50/60? It’s an opinion so there’s no wrong answer.

Edited 7 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[javy knows my name]

The proud ignorance vibe here lately is very weird

[javy knows my name]

And the answer is, always and forever, more dongs.

[bukie]

Real answer, HR and a SB in the same AB. Just keep going to first base after crossing home plate, see what the umps do. 

[bukie]

3 minutes ago, javy knows my name said:

The proud ignorance vibe here lately is very weird

23 years ago this place was started as an escape from the ignorant ranting forums at more popular places like ESPN or Cubs.com.

Now those forums are long gone and this is the only real game in town for forum discussion, and the game threads and discussions reflect it.

[ILMindState]

19 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

PCA is just one home run off the lead league. Who had "PCA HR Champion" on their bingo card?

Can he just stop at 1st next time he hits a HR so he can steal?

[Jason Ross]

32 minutes ago, Javy Is Still a Cub 2 said:

It's not troll bait? It's a statistical analysis of a statistic: WAR is saying that PCA's 2026 season is 3x better than Dawson's 1987 MVP season.

I mean... that's just absurd, right? Dawson's couple dozen less SBs, 50 or so less walks, 5 more homers and gold glove D is worth just 33% of PCA's season?

Ergo, and e pluribus unum: the problem is the statistic itself.

So I really don't think the problem with is my "worldview", either? Not trolling, not my worldview. Bottom line: if anyone can explain how Dawson needs 3 1987s to match 1 PCA 2026... I mean... if Dawson did that he would be in the HOF (oh wait he is).

This isn't taking away from PCA at all - it's taking away from WAR. 

Your worldview is simple "There is no way Pete Crow-Armstrong could being having a season that is statistically three times more valuable than Andre Dawson" and you're having. hard time squaring how that could be possible. But notice; you've provided nothing outside of your world view, your opinion as to why it's flawed. If you have an argument about the actual statistic (like the inputs, or whatever), then maybe you'll find an audience for that argument. But just flailing against the statistic with nothing but anecdote and conjecture won't get you far. 

Let me try to explain to what fWAR is trying to say, and what you're simply missing.
1. In 1987, league offense was much better across the board. League average OPS was .747 and in 2026 league average is .719. What Pete is doing is much more impressive when we consider the scoring environment. Dawson was 24% better than average and PCA is 59% better than average. It's not even close. Put another way: Dawson was the 41st best offensive player in 1987 in MLB. Pete is the second. (Pete would have been the fourth best player offensive in '87)
2. Andre Dawson was a RF, and Pete Crow-Armstrong was a CF. CF is just a vastly more valuable position; it requires skills and tools that RF does not. fWAR gives proper boost for positions. RF is one of the most readily found positions and CF one of the hardest.
3. Dawson was an okay runner. Pete Crow-Armstrong is an elite one. 
4. PCA is a generational fielder. The type of defensive player we see pop up at his position maybe every 20 years. Dawson in 1987 was, with the tools we have merely "okay" defensively. When you factor in the positional aspect, it skews it greatly. And once again, it's not even close.

fWAR is trying to tell you "Dude, you're missing the point". Pete Crow-Armstrong is another layer of the atmosphere in terms of what he's doing when you take into the big picture. Instead of fighting back against fWAR, maybe try to understand why PCA is that much better. It'll give you a greater appreciation for the history you're currently witnessing and help put into perspective what you thought you once knew.

[ILMindState]

2 hours ago, Javy Is Still a Cub 2 said:

This is why WAR is obviously such a failed stat:

Andre Dawson won the MVP in 1987, bashing the most home runs in the NL in 20 years, leading the league in total bases and RBI (even though he was on a last-place team), and game-winning RBI (a stat they don't seem to care about anymore but which used to be on baseball cards and, again, on a last-place team. Hey, what's clutch? Ah, that's a phony, outdated concept, right...).

He won the gold glove (one of his eight) yet Fangraphs and Baseball Reference both have him as a negative defender that year (FG for his entire career, BR has him almost neutral for his career...). LOL, the idea that Dawson was a negative or neutral defender 1987 is simply absurd - nobody ran on him, as he had one of the truly best arms of his era, even if his mobility wasn't what it used to be, thanks to Montreal's turf; he threw out lazy batters at first that year.

But what's even more absurd? Telling me that PCA's 2026 season is worth 3x of Dawson's 1987 season. FG has Dawson's '87 campaign as worth 3.5 wins, Pete is at 10.4 fwar. 

Don't get me started on Bruce Sutter. You're saying that PCA 2026 is better than the two years Sutter finished in the top 7 in voting... MVP voting?! (He did win a mere Cy Young with the Cubs.)

Ok, you'll say relief pitchers aren't as important as everyday players. Fine. PCA's 2026 campaign is worth more than Sutter's whole Cub career, even if we add in his other two all-star campaigns, one of which garnered top-20 MPV votes?

Negatory. Mucho negatory. 

Obviously, a big part for those who say that WAR is so solid is that people didn't know how to value players back in the day. But if you're saying PCA is worth 3.5 Dawson 1987s... you weren't watching in 1987, for sure. Dawson dominated the game day in and day out - this was a terrible team and you only had to stop Dawson, but they couldn't. Or you're also saying that Sutter's '79 Cy and Dawson's '87 MVP should have gone elsewhere but... that wasn't the consensus then. Or you're saying that 1987 was just a bad year for baseball... so bad that its MVP had 1/3rd the impact of 2026's.

Or you're saying something that is... I dunno, but 3x the season as Dawson's 1987 can't be right. 

And yet baseball's stat nerds - so uniquely nerdy and as fundamentalist as has ever existed - will believe that it is... because the stat says so. 

Great thread, great PCA campaign - but the WAR-love is clearly out of control. 

Was Javy Is Still a Cub 1 already taken or did you forget your password?  You know you can just reset your password right? Or did you forget the password to your email? You can reset that one too. 

[Geographyhater8888]

6 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Your worldview is simple "There is no way Pete Crow-Armstrong could being having a season that is statistically three times more valuable than Andre Dawson" and you're having. hard time squaring how that could be possible. But notice; you've provided nothing outside of your world view, your opinion as to why it's flawed. 

Let me try to explain to what fWAR is trying to say, and what you're simply missing.
1. In 1987, league offense was much better across the board. League average OPS was .747 and in 2016 league average is .719. What Pete is doing is much more impressive when we consider the scoring environment
2. Andre Dawson was a RF, and Pete Crow-Armstrong was a CF. CF is just a vastly more valuable position; it requires skills and tools that RF does not. fWAR gives proper boost for positions
3. Dawson was an okay runner. Pete Crow-Armstrong is an elite one. 
4. PCA is a generational fielder. The type of defensive player we see pop up at his position maybe every 20 years. Dawson in 1987 was, with the tools we have merely "okay" defensively. When you factor in the positional aspect, it skews it greatly.

fWAR is trying to tell you "Dude, you're missing the point". Instead of fighting back against fWAR, maybe try to understand why PCA is that much better. It'll give you a greater appreciation for the history you're currently witnessing and help put into perspective what you thought you once knew.

It’s like saying that Eli Manning was a better quarterback than John Elway. They have the same number of rings and Eli blows him away in all passing metrics. It’s not a 1:1 comparison either because Pete is having a better season statistically independent of era. 

Edited 6 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

Has anyone ever won the SS, platinum glove and MVP in a season? Also be the top guy offensively and defensively all while having a 40/40 season? I think what we are seeing this year has never been done before. But maybe Mays would have done this if they had all those awards when he played. 

[Javy Is Still a Cub 2]

I appreciate the reply - although nobody appreciates having their worldview called "simple" in a pejorative sense - but you're asking me to disprove a claim WAR when WAR is the one making the claim.

Can anyone justify how PCA's 2016 season is 3x more valuable than Dawson's 1987? This is neither anecdote nor conjecture - WAR is making THIS SPECIFIC claim that Dawson '87 was a third as productive as PCA '26. 

PCA 2026 is an incredibly well-rounded player - but that makes him 3x more productive than the awesome, dominant, a-last-place-team-can't-stop-me-from-winning-the-MVP Dawson 1987? Reminder: Dawson was the first player to win MVP EVER on a last place team. Only ARod has done it since.

This is WAR making the claim - not me. Can anyone justify it - 3x more productive? 

Again, using other, non-WAR stats: couple dozen less SBs, 50 or so less walks, 5 more homers, slightly worse D (I mean, Dawson was an elite fielder or near-elite fielder, too, so let's certainly give PCA the nod but it's not like Dawson was Adam Dunn out there, LOL), and all while hitting on the best-hitting Cubs team in 150 years, LOL... 1/3 rd as productive?

WAR is making the claim - they're the ones who have to justify it. It sure doesn't seem like it holds water....

 

[Javy Is Still a Cub 2]

19 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

Was Javy Is Still a Cub 1 already taken or did you forget your password?  You know you can just reset your password right? Or did you forget the password to your email? You can reset that one too. 

Thank you for your help. I was the original Javy Is Still a Cub. Starting a new one seemed easier, LOL. 

Believing that Javy is ALWAYS a Cubs is not the sign of a distorted worldview - it is a sign of the magic of El Mago! 

[Javy Is Still a Cub 2]

15 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Has anyone ever won the SS, platinum glove and MVP in a season? Also be the top guy offensively and defensively all while having a 40/40 season? I think what we are seeing this year has never been done before. But maybe Mays would have done this if they had all those awards when he played. 

You think he's going to beat out Pages of LA for the GG? Pages has some better stats (because they ran on him way more than they ran on Pete), including defensive WAR. Can you win the Platinum Glove and not the GG, LOL? 

Pete's had a handful of misplays this year, unfortunately. Might cost him both awards. 

Edited 6 hours ago by Javy Is Still a Cub 2

[JBears79]

1 hour ago, Banedon said:

Would we rather he have him overtake Schwarber in HR's, or get those extra 3 steals?

both sounds good to me

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Javy Is Still a Cub 2 said:

You think he's going to beat out Pages of LA for the GG? Pages has some better stats (because they ran on him way more than they ran on Pete), including defensive WAR. Can you win the Platinum Glove and not the GG, LOL? 

Pete's had a handful of misplays this year, unfortunately. Might cost him both awards. 

Better stats, how? Yes PCA has made a few errors. But he gets to balls Pages wouldn’t come close to. You are really showing an outdated view on the game. Even this Dawson argument is stupid. TBH, he didn’t deserve the MVP that year. There were several players in the league that had a better year than him AND they were on winning teams. Dawson has a very good year. He didn’t  blow everyone away in several categories. And he didn’t field his position nearly as well as PCA does.