Random trade speculation

[CubinNY]

7 hours ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

Yep, I willing to lose a year of baseball if it meant MLB can erase the Dodgers competitive avantage.

What is wrong with you? 
 

Their competitive advantage is they have smart people in key positions doing great work. Nothing MLB can do about that. 

Edited 5 hours ago by CubinNY

[Geographyhater8888]

26 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

If Peralta, Holmes or Mize cost Ramirez do the Cubs so it? If Detmers or Soriano cost Ramirez, Wiggins and Ayers + would that be ok? Or does Jed go bargain shopping with guys like Triantos, Alcantara and maybe Long and put a few others in and shoot for Wacha or Mahle? 

I’m a prisoner of the moment but I’m hesitant to trade Ramirez and especially for a rental. He’s helping a win now team…. win now. 

Wiggins is a 24 YO prospect who can’t stay healthy and the last thing I want is another Alcantara who you waited too long to move. As Counterproductive as it is, in addition to the other names. 

[squally1313]

29 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I read asks for quality starters (rental or with control) are ridiculous now.

Based on what? We just saw the tigers trade skubal for a package with zero major league experience like 48 hours after we all ‘read’ that they are looking for three major leaguers plus premium prospects. We have to stop letting local reporters provide coverage for hoyer/ptr

[Geographyhater8888]

18 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

And Cubs, right? 

The Dodgers have no use for prospects because none of them will see playing time in the near future anyways, they have the luxury of throwing in top 100 prospects to almost guarantee a 3 peat. 

[cl smooth]

 

[Geographyhater8888]

Was Jhomnardo Reyes an overpay for Dean Kremer?

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Based on what? We just saw the tigers trade skubal for a package with zero major league experience like 48 hours after we all ‘read’ that they are looking for three major leaguers plus premium prospects. We have to stop letting local reporters provide coverage for hoyer/ptr

Yeah, I think if there's anything Cubs-related to come out of this trade it's that the price for SP's probably isn't as insane as we think it might be. There's a possibility this is just a weird "Scott Harris super overvalues this package" type of a thing (and I think he may just overvalue River Ryan) but it makes me think the Detmers/Kirby prices have to be a bit more reasonable than maybe we thought they would be. 

Rojas/Shaw/Ramirez should be more than enough to lead a trade (I'd have all of them around the value of Zyhir Hope as a prospect) and we should have enough to pair a good secondary piece to out value Ryan/Smith. 

You should be able to grab one of them with the price on Skubal set.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Geographyhater8888 said:

Was Jhomnardo Reyes an overpay for Dean Kremer?

That's about what those types go for: unproven teenage lottery tickets. 

[Geographyhater8888]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

That's about what those types go for: unproven teenage lottery tickets. 

No wonder. I didn’t realize he’s only pitched 36 innings this year. Are you at all more hesitant to move Ramirez or is am I just a prisoner of the moment?

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Based on what? We just saw the tigers trade skubal for a package with zero major league experience like 48 hours after we all ‘read’ that they are looking for three major leaguers plus premium prospects. We have to stop letting local reporters provide coverage for hoyer/ptr

Dodgers trades the 25th ranked prospect in baseball plus a ready now starting pitcher and another pitcher, for a rental. Granted, he is a great pitcher. But why wouldn’t Mize, Peralta, or Holmes cost at least a back end of the top 100? That is what Ramirez is (who I only used as an example because with people seeing him I am sure they are overvaluing him)? As for the controlled guys, do you really think they go for less that what I suggested?

One of Ramirez/Shaw/Rojas either Ayers or Ballesteros, any pitcher in the minors (I used Wiggins) and then a lower level young guy. 4-1 deal. Do you really think Soriano or Detmers can be had for less. I think if either could the Cubs would have had one of them already. 

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

No wonder. I didn’t realize he’s only pitched 36 innings this year. Are you at all more hesitant to move Ramirez or is am I just a prisoner of the moment?

I really like Pedro. I made the allegory yesterday that you don't name the cow you're going to eat, and I think by having him on the MLB roster, there's a bit of that going on. It's a lot easier to trade "top prospect in Knoxville or Iowa I don't watch every day (possibly ever)" than "guy who I saw take a big PA yesterday in Wrigley Field" much like it's a lot harder to eat a burger if you met the cow and gave it a name. 

If I'm taking that out of it: Pedro Ramirez remains a tradeable piece. He's probably an infielder and not an OF'er, he hasn't shown a ton of power in his career outside of like 45 days in Iowa, there's enough overlap with Shaw...if he turns into a controllable SP you have to do it.

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

But why wouldn’t Mize, Peralta, or Holmes cost at least a back end of the top 100?

Let me turn this around on you, why would they?  Try to find a comparable trade deadline deal from years past.

[Backtobanks]

2 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

The Dodgers are making George Steinbrenners Yankees look like the Ricketts owned Cubs. The competitive balance is horsefeathered. Ohtani will receive $680 of his $700 million between 2034 and the 2040’s and none of it will impact their payroll or have any LT implications. It’s ridiculous. He’s $680 of their $1 billion of deferred money owed too.

It's a shame that our FO and owner can't figure out creative accounting.

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Let me turn this around on you, why would they?  Try to find a comparable trade deadline deal from years past.

And to just pile on this; Carlos Collazo just wrote an article for BA about how the return for Skubal matches up favorably with how historic prices for aces on expiring deals are traded for. Source

A lot of why it feels light is because of how good the Dodgers' system is viewed.

[Geographyhater8888]

1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

I really like Pedro. I made the allegory yesterday that you don't name the cow you're going to eat, and I think by having him on the MLB roster, there's a bit of that going on. It's a lot easier to trade "top prospect in Knoxville or Iowa I don't watch every day (possibly ever)" than "guy who I saw take a big PA yesterday in Wrigley Field" much like it's a lot harder to eat a burger if you met the cow and gave it a name. 

If I'm taking that out of it: Pedro Ramirez remains a tradeable piece. He's probably an infielder and not an OF'er, he hasn't shown a ton of power in his career outside of like 45 days in Iowa, there's enough overlap with Shaw...if he turns into a controllable SP you have to do it.

Sure, as a centerpiece in a trade for Detmers you absolutely trade him. But a 115 wRC+ bat, whether it’s from slug or simply a high batting average is still a very solid even in the outfield. Whether or not that what he’ll become he’s been a tease. 

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Let me turn this around on you, why would they?  Try to find a comparable trade deadline deal from years past.

Dodgers just traded the 25th ranked prospect in baseball for Skubal, a rental. And they added a ready now starting pitcher and another pitcher. I know that is Skubal, but still paid a lot. Bieber was traded last year for a fringe top 100 guy, similar in value at the time, to Wiggins. Bieber was injured and coming back, so similar to Holmes. Perhaps I went a little too aggressive with what it would cost. I was just trying to make a point that IMO whatever deal they do make, if it is for a sure playoff starting pitcher it is going to hurt. Maybe not Ramirez hurt. But there will be some grumbling about the deal. 
And, tbh, I asked the question to steer away from going down the road of the Dodger ruining baseball. Wanted to get back to Cubs conversation. 

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Sure, as a centerpiece in a trade for Detmers you absolutely trade him. But a 115 wRC+ bat, whether it’s from slug or simply a high batting average is still a very solid even in the outfield. Whether or not that what he’ll become he’s been a tease. 

It's a good option, sure. But it's the same general wRC+ as Ryan O'Hearn, Casey Schmidt, Taylor Ward, and Ezekial Duran none of whom are stars. And we don't even know if he's going to be a 115 wRC+ hitter. That feels like a really good outcome and would put him as a top-5 hitting 2b. Maybe we shouldn't assume that's the outcome; I think a 100-105 wRC+ is a more likely outcome and would put him as a very uninspiring COF.

[squally1313]

River Ryan is 27(!!) years old, has pitched 36 innings this year, pitched zero innings last year, and pitched 44 innings the year before. The fact that he was ranked in top 100 prospects is very dumb. What’s his innings ceiling, 100 next year, maybe, god willing, you can take off the gloves in his age 29 season?

every contending team, including the cubs, could have beaten this package. It’s an indictment on them that they didn’t. Do I think dodgers prospects are perennially overrated by major publications? Yes. Should major league front offices see past that? Also yes. 
 

we’re going to hear a whole bunch of hearsay on what certain players might cost in the next 24 hours. It’s Jed’s job to make this team better. He failed last year. Let’s see how it goes. 

[squally1313]

FG has hope as the 57th best prospect in baseball. We don’t have to discuss this based on the most favorable of the dozen major prospect rankings. He’s outfield Jefferson Rojas (who remains without a path to major league playing time)

[Bertz]

I'll say Kirby and if god willing the Reds are willing to trade Greene in division are the only guys I move Pedro for.  

He's not some uniquely amazing player but he is a uniquely good roster fit and we have enough guys of sufficient value to get a Detmers or whomever.

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I'll say Kirby and if god willing the Reds are willing to trade Greene in division are the only guys I move Pedro for.  

He's not some uniquely amazing player but he is a uniquely good roster fit and we have enough guys of sufficient value to get a Detmers or whomever.

That fair. So are you saying of Ramirez/Shaw/Rojas you clearly favor Ramirez?  I would think one of those 3 would be a centerpiece for Detmers or Soriano. 

[Geographyhater8888]

12 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Dodgers just traded the 25th ranked prospect in baseball for Skubal, a rental. And they added a ready now starting pitcher and another pitcher. I know that is Skubal, but still paid a lot. Bieber was traded last year for a fringe top 100 guy, similar in value at the time, to Wiggins. Bieber was injured and coming back, so similar to Holmes. Perhaps I went a little too aggressive with what it would cost. I was just trying to make a point that IMO whatever deal they do make, if it is for a sure playoff starting pitcher it is going to hurt. Maybe not Ramirez hurt. But there will be some grumbling about the deal. 
And, tbh, I asked the question to steer away from going down the road of the Dodger ruining baseball. Wanted to get back to Cubs conversation. 

The Dodgers can. There’s no concern whatsoever for cost controlled talent either for them. In order to land Skubal and almost guarantee a 3 peat, they offered Detroit a package that they couldn’t refuse. 
 

Take the Dodgers who are a unicorn out of the picture and the package is lighter. I don’t think Skubal will impact the market a whole lot.
 

Edited 5 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Derwood]

If the owners (outside of LA) want a salary cap, wouldn’t trading the Dodgers every superstar then saying “See! Unfair!” be a strategy?

[squally1313]

7 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

The Dodgers can. There’s no concern whatsoever for cost controlled talent either for them. In order to land Skubal and almost guarantee a 3 peat, they offered Detroit a package that they couldn’t refuse 

the cubs or brewers or rays or any other team could have topped this package. They chose not to. Not a dodgers problem. 

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

The Dodgers can. There’s no concern whatsoever for cost controlled talent either for them. In order to land Skubal and almost guarantee a 3 peat, they offered Detroit a package that they couldn’t refuse. 
 

Take the Dodgers who are a unicorn out of the picture and the package is lighter. I don’t think Skubal will impact the market a whole lot.
 

This package isn't so strong they forced the Tigers hand. It matched up pretty much with historic trades for expiring aces as explained today on BA. 

Secondly the Dodgers have the oldest position group in baseball. They will need to replace those players somehow and they won't do it all through FA. They can't just empty their system out and bottom out. They were able to move Hope, specifically, because they have two better OF prospects. They didn't get those out of thin air, either. 

The Dodgers offered a good package that they could offer and matched up with historic trends. Other teams didn't beat it. We don't need to create narratives.