Random trade speculation

[Dfan25]

1 minute ago, Post Count Padder said:

Is there any interest in a package of Gausman and Hoffman with the Blues Jays paying some of Hoffman's salary? 

For me absolutely . I have even thought about Springer to DH ( if he is a pending FA ) not sure . I dont think they would do it however for money reasons 

[Bertz]

56 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I'm not sure I agree. It depends on how you're valuing a lot of things here:
1. What is Owen Ayers' value? I think he's very hard to pinpoint on what the Cubs should value him as and how another team should value him. The numbers are great. The age is a bit of a concern as is the lack of track record. 
2. What is Kaleb Wing's value? What kind of injury are we talking? 

Ryan Helsey went for Joshua Baez (40+ on FG) and Nate Dohm (35+) last year at the deadline. He was having a worse year than Weaver, but was also better than Weaver before. He also had no control. Ayers is a 40+ on FG right now as is Wing. Tyler Rogers went for a 45+ and a 45 as well as Jose Butto. 

I think you can say that maybe Ayers is low on Eric's list. But even if you bump him to a 45, I think it's in line with how relievers were bought last year.

The only way this holds up is if you think Weaver is pitching like a guy deserving a 2ish ERA, and I would hard disagree with that

Edited 4 hours ago by Bertz

[Bertz]

13 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The only way this holds up is if you think Weaver is pitching like a guy deserving a 2ish ERA, and I would hard disagree with that

I guess to put a finer point on this, we gave up a (very good) kid in the DSL for Andrew Kittredge with a team option last year. 

[Jason Ross]

24 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The only way this holds up is if you think Weaver is pitching like a guy deserving a 2ish ERA, and I would hard disagree with that

I'm not sure I agree with that, either. I don't think he has to pitch to a sub 2.00 ERA to be worth two 40+ prospects. Gregory Soto picked up Wellington Aracena (45) and Cameron Foster (35+). At the time of the trade Soto was pitching to the tune of a 3.96 ERA, a 3.89 xFIP and was a free agent at the end of the year. 

To map that out using the updated FV chart, a 45 pitcher is valued at $9.5m and a 35+ pitcher is valued at $1.5m. So that's $11m value back. Using Logenhagen's valuation a 40+ hitter is worth $8m and a 40+ P is valued at $7m. So you're at $15m.

I totally understand if you're on the fence of thinking Ayers is a 45 hitter. That adds a lot of value. It takes the total from $15m over $20m because it effectively doubles the value of Owen Ayers. But if we're just sticking within the entire FanGraphs ecosystem, the price of Ayers and Wing is valued at slightly higher than Gregory Soto's expiring contract, and I think Weaver, especially with control, is worth $4m more than Soto.

EDIT: I read a 45+ pitcher initially and noticed that with all of my charts. that I erroneously added a + to his rating in my brain, throwing off my numbers initially. I have updated my math and post, but there's a real chance you saw the original. I don't think it changes my premise, but I did want to be accurate.

[Rcal10]

I will go on record of saying any deal made by the Cubs this trade deadline will come with most people saying the Cubs overpaid. But on the flip side if they do little people will complain that Jed didn’t do enough. Too many fans think the Cubs should get people without a realistic expectation of the cost to get who they think the Cubs should get. 

[Bertz]

5 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I'm not sure I agree with that, either. I don't think he has to pitch to a sub 2.00 ERA to be worth two 40+ prospects. Gregory Soto picked up Wellington Aracena (45) and Cameron Foster (35+). At the time of the trade Soto was pitching to the tune of a 3.96 ERA, a 3.89 xFIP and was a free agent at the end of the year. 

To map that out using the updated FV chart, a 45+ pitcher is valued at $15m and a 35+ pitcher is valued at $1.5m. So that's $16.5m value back. Using Logenhagen's valuation a 40+ hitter is worth $8m and a 40+ P is valued at $7m. So you're at $15m.

I totally understand if you're on the fence of thinking Ayers is a 45 hitter. That adds a lot of value. It takes the total from $15m over $20m because it effectively doubles the value of Owen Ayers. But if we're just sticking within the entire FanGraphs ecosystem, the price of Ayers and Wing is valued at lower than Gregory Soto's expiring contract, and I think Weaver, especially with control, is worth more than Gregory Soto.

Feels like the common denominator to all these deals you keep bringing up is just the Mets being willing to overpay

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Feels like the common denominator to all these deals you keep bringing up is just the Mets being willing to overpay

I'm just using the relievers who are in the ballpark of Weaver. Sadly, it was seemingly the Mets who made all of those deals last year which makes my point a little more foggy...thanks David Stearn for that. But mostly my methodology was that I felt Miller and Duran feel like a tier well above Luke Weaver, where as Caleb Ferguson feels like he was less. Soto, Helsey and Rogers feels more in line with Luke Weaver, from my stand point so I went with them.

If we want to look at Caleb Ferguson, on an expiring deal, the Pirates acquired him for a single 40+ FV pitcher in Jeter Martinez. But he was signed to a 1/$4.5m deal in the offseason where as Luke Weaver was signed for 2/$22m. So I think it's fair to assume that Weaver would go for much more than Ferguson at the deadline simply based on how the league handled the two in the offseason. 

I don't know. In the end, I don't think the Mets would do an Ayers/Wing swap from their end. I also understand anyone higher on Ayers than Eric (and it's an argument I think you could passionately argue and I'd probably come away thinking it was a good one). But I do think if we're using the FG ecosystem in total that the deal makes sense. Ultimately, no team is doing that, so there's plenty of nuance that we just can't know.

[Post Count Padder]

Shane Bieber has 6 walks and counting and it's still the 1st inning. I know one start a season does not make, but maybe let's skip this one.

Edited 3 hours ago by Post Count Padder

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

Shane Bieber has 6 walks and counting and it's still the 1st inning. I know one start a season does not make, but maybe let's skip this one.

He looked like maybe he turned a corner. Yeesh.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Bieber is probably a step away from being Taillon 

[Post Count Padder]

13 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

He looked like maybe he turned a corner. Yeesh.

Didn't even finish the inning. Pulled for old pal Brendon Little to get the last out.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Post Count Padder said:

Didn't even finish the inning. Pulled for old pal Brendon Little to get the last out.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Sandy was very good against the Phillies tonight 

[mk49]

49 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Bieber is probably a step away from being Taillon 

Wow, he allowed only one hit, but 6 walks.  Pretty wild.  Jamo didn't do that.😄

[Dfan25]

Remember what I said about Bieber ? Forget it . How about Fister Griffin as the 2nd SP add . He should come cheap 

[Dfan25]

I have a feeling Pedro won’t be with the Cubs on Tuesday unfortunately . I like him so much more than Shaw 

Edited 2 hours ago by Dfan25

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

I have a feeling Pedro won’t be with the Cubs on Tuesday unfortunately . I like him so much more than Shaw 

What is there that you like about him better than Shaw? I mean he has had a lot of soft contact hits. Today he has 2. As a human, I like him better than Shaw. But I am not ready to say he is a better ballplayer than Shaw. I think the angst about the Cubs possibly trading him is overstated. As long as they get a good pitcher and one with some control left beyond this year, I have no issue with moving him and the other shiny new toy everyone worries about them trading , Ayers. 

[Dfan25]

11 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

What is there that you like about him better than Shaw? I mean he has had a lot of soft contact hits. Today he has 2. As a human, I like him better than Shaw. But I am not ready to say he is a better ballplayer than Shaw. I think the angst about the Cubs possibly trading him is overstated. As long as they get a good pitcher and one with some control left beyond this year, I have no issue with moving him and the other shiny new toy everyone worries about them trading , Ayers. 

I think he will hit better than Shaw againts righties . My thing with Shaw is his ability to hit RHP . If he can’t up his production againts them , it will be difficult for him to be an everyday player . 
 

I just like Pedro’s swing better . His at bats look more competitive againts righties IMO than Shaw . It has nothing to do with Oedro getting a couple of soft hits tonight .

 

And to be clear because I don’t want him traded , doesn’t mean I wouldn’t trade him for a SP with control . I understand that Pedro really doesn’t have a long term spot other than utility with this team 

 

I have no concerns trading Ayers , but not for Luke Weaver

Edited 1 hour ago by Dfan25

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Pedro has also shown a ton of impressive bat speed and exit velo, something Shaw never has. And he's 2 and a half years younger 

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

I think he will hit better than Shaw againts righties . My thing with Shaw is his ability to hit RHP . If he can’t up his production againts them , it will be difficult for him to be an everyday player . 
 

I just like Pedro’s swing better . His at bats look more competitive againts righties IMO than Shaw . It has nothing to do with Oedro getting a couple of soft hits tonight .

 

And to be clear because I don’t want him traded , doesn’t mean I wouldn’t trade him for a SP with control . I understand that Pedro really doesn’t have a long term spot other than utility with this team 

 

I have no concerns trading Ayers , but not for Luke Weaver

That’s fair. But I still think whatever moves Jed makes people are going to call it an overpay. An example is Ayers for Weaver. For me, Ayers is strictly found money. He was a 19th round draft choice just a short time ago. And this year he showed something. If they can trade a 19th round draft choice for a pen arm that helps this year and can help next year I have no issues trading him. Yet many feel he is too valuable for that sort of deal. Last year the Cubs could have cut him and no one would have even noticed. Now people would rather trade Mo than Ayers. 

[mk49]

And, Pedro just hit a 104mph double.😄

[Dfan25]

11 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

That’s fair. But I still think whatever moves Jed makes people are going to call it an overpay. An example is Ayers for Weaver. For me, Ayers is strictly found money. He was a 19th round draft choice just a short time ago. And this year he showed something. If they can trade a 19th round draft choice for a pen arm that helps this year and can help next year I have no issues trading him. Yet many feel he is too valuable for that sort of deal. Last year the Cubs could have cut him and no one would have even noticed. Now people would rather trade Mo than Ayers. 

I really don’t care if Ayer’s is found money . I am not trading him with the season he is having for a reliever , and I really like Luke Weaver . There will be plenty of relievers that can do the job available.

 

Sure Ayer’s could start sucking next year , but he could also continue to be good . You never know 

 

In a deal for a SP with control ? Sure sign me up 

 

You get too worked up about what posters say of Jed. It’s an internet board cal . enjoy it

Edited 1 hour ago by Dfan25

[Dfan25]

Detmers so far tonight 3 IP / 1 ER /,6 K s 

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

What is there that you like about him better than Shaw? I mean he has had a lot of soft contact hits. Today he has 2. As a human, I like him better than Shaw. But I am not ready to say he is a better ballplayer than Shaw. I think the angst about the Cubs possibly trading him is overstated. As long as they get a good pitcher and one with some control left beyond this year, I have no issue with moving him and the other shiny new toy everyone worries about them trading , Ayers. 

The combination of his plate discipline, contact rates, and contact quality. Remember those first 2-3 months this season there were a lot of posts showing the total package was quite rare. He cooled off a little bit but those traits are still there. 

 

Shaw's contact quality plainly makes me nervous. Yes, Pedro has had some fortuitous soft contact lately but its the first 100 PA of his career. I think he has a higher floor and ceiling.

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

I'd probably do that. I like Ayers but he's truly a 25 year old pop up prospect; catcher be damned.

That's my take on Ayers too.  He's a 19th rounder and 25 y/o.  Prospects like him pop up every year.  More likely he's Matt Mervis than something worth worrying much about losing.  The only thing that really makes you want him is he's a catcher, but a late convert so he's probably not that great defensively besides the arm.

Catchers with some power but meh hit tools seem to flame out a lot too, even the top prospects.  Hitters in general with that profile flame out a lot.