Cubs (Imanaga) vs Cardinals (Pallante): 5/29/26, 6:15pm

[Brandon Glick]

Salvaging that Pirates series was huge. Now, the Cubs need to fend off the Redbirds to maintain a grip of 2nd place in the Central.

	SUN	MON	TUE	WED	THU	TOT
Trent Thornton	0	21	0	0	22	43
Ryan Rolison	0	0	32	0	0	32
Phil Maton	13	0	0	22	0	35
Jacob Webb	0	23	0	17	0	40
Hoby Milner	0	0	20	0	21	41
Ethan Roberts	16	0	0	15	0	31
Daniel Palencia	0	0	14	0	0	14
Caleb Thielbar	13	0	0	17	27	57

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

none of the Cardinals starters are particularly good, so it's going to be pretty frustrating if they can't put up some good offensive games.

[Derwood]

The entire Cardinals starting lineup is 27 years old or younger. The oldest member of the rotation is 29. 

I hate the Cardinals, but props to them for blowing it up and building young

[mk49]

If Amaya starts today, most likely, they would win.  I think it'll be Kelly today, and I just hope Shota pitches well.  Then, tomorrow, Amaya will be the catcher, and Ben will pitch well.

[Derwood]

I find the recent lack of day games disturbing

[mul21]

22 minutes ago, mk49 said:

If Amaya starts today, most likely, they would win.  I think it'll be Kelly today, and I just hope Shota pitches well.  Then, tomorrow, Amaya will be the catcher, and Ben will pitch well.

If you're going to keep saying this, I'd suggest you provide some evidence to support it (there's isn't any).

[mk49]

13 minutes ago, mul21 said:

If you're going to keep saying this, I'd suggest you provide some evidence to support it (there's isn't any).

Check the splits.  Shota's ERA is 0.95 (Amaya) and 5.32 (Kelly).  With Amaya, Shota gives up less HR's (HR/9: 0.94 vs 1.58) and more strikeouts (K/9: 12.32 vs 8.08).  The opponent's OPS are very different, too (.533 vs .720).  

For Brown, ERA 1.19 (Amaya) and 4.38 (Kelly).

I'm not saying they don't pitch well with Kelly catching.  Sometimes, they do.  But, Amaya will give them better chance.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=imanash01&year=2026&t=p#all_catch

Edited yesterday at 04:14 PM by mk49

[mul21]

3 minutes ago, mk49 said:

Check the splits.  Shota's ERA is 0.95 (Amaya) and 5.32 (Kelly).  With Amaya, Shota gives up less HR's (HR/9: 0.94 vs 1.58) and more strikeouts (K/9: 12.32 vs 8.08).  The opponent's OPS are very different, too (.533 vs .720).  

For Brown, ERA 1.19 (Amaya) and 4.38 (Kelly).

I'm not saying they don't pitch well with Kelly catching.  Sometimes, they do.  But, Amaya will give them better chance.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=imanash01&year=2026&t=p#all_catch

Is that just this season?

[mk49]

4 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Is that just this season?

Yes, these numbers are from this season, but Shota did pitch better with Amaya last year.  The difference wasn't as big, though.  Also, I don't think it's fair to compare those two catchers last year, because Amaya missed pretty much all the 2nd half, when Shota was bad.

Edited yesterday at 04:20 PM by mk49

[Derwood]

Somehow we've rounded back to "Catcher ERA". 

What a world

[Neuby]

I love that Mk49 provided the data and you guys are still it doesn't make a difference who catches who.

 

Must have missed David Ross, Eddie Perez, and Henry Blanco careers. 

 

[Neuby]

1 hour ago, mk49 said:

Check the splits.  Shota's ERA is 0.95 (Amaya) and 5.32 (Kelly).  With Amaya, Shota gives up less HR's (HR/9: 0.94 vs 1.58) and more strikeouts (K/9: 12.32 vs 8.08).  The opponent's OPS are very different, too (.533 vs .720).  

For Brown, ERA 1.19 (Amaya) and 4.38 (Kelly).

I'm not saying they don't pitch well with Kelly catching.  Sometimes, they do.  But, Amaya will give them better chance.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=imanash01&year=2026&t=p#all_catch

thanks for sharing the data. 

[Derwood]

4 minutes ago, Neuby said:

I love that Mk49 provided the data and you guys are still it doesn't make a difference who catches who.

 

Must have missed David Ross, Eddie Perez, and Henry Blanco careers. 

 

In his career, Shota's opponent OPS is only ~30 pts higher with Kelly than it is with Amaya

[Neuby]

Just now, Derwood said:

In his career, Shota's opponent OPS is only ~30 pts higher with Kelly than it is with Amaya

 Thanks for acknowledging he was correct.

[Derwood]

3 minutes ago, Neuby said:

 Thanks for acknowledging he was correct.

Not to the extreme he pointed out. He's using small sample sizes to make a point that doesn't need to be made

[Neuby]

2 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Not to the extreme he pointed out. He's using small sample sizes to make a point that doesn't need to be made

 point that doesn't need to be made? 

[Derwood]

1 minute ago, Neuby said:

 point that doesn't need to be made? 

"We'll lose if Kelly starts" is not a point that needs to be made, no

[Bertz]

I'm fairly open to catcher soft skills being a thing but when you're cherrypicking to the extent that flipping one outing would completely change the calculus I think it's probably best to just touch grass.

[Neuby]

1 minute ago, Derwood said:

"We'll lose if Kelly starts" is not a point that needs to be made, no

Cherry picking. He provided the data and brought up pitchers throwing better to certain catchers.  A guy with 87,000 maybe shouldn't be telling posters when a point needs to be made. This a board for discussing baseball. 

[mk49]

3 minutes ago, Derwood said:

"We'll lose if Kelly starts" is not a point that needs to be made, no

I don't think I said that.  I just said Amaya gives them better chance.  There's nothing 100%  in baseball.

[mul21]

5 minutes ago, Neuby said:

 point that doesn't need to be made? 

Yes, using his starts just from this year is such a miniscule sample size that it's truly pointless.  Catcher ERA is also generally pointless outside of factors like we saw when Ross caught Lester because he was so atrocious at throwing to first that having a guy who could control the running game well was an actual difference maker.  Or guys we know are bad at calling a game like Wilson Contreras, but we can be fairly certain that's not a factor here based on how the Cubs select their catchers.

[Derwood]

3 minutes ago, mk49 said:

I don't think I said that.  I just said Amaya gives them better chance.  There's nothing 100%  in baseball.

You implied it with: "If Amaya starts today, most likely, they would win."

[mul21]

2 minutes ago, mk49 said:

I don't think I said that.  I just said Amaya gives them better chance.  There's nothing 100%  in baseball.

 

2 hours ago, mk49 said:

If Amaya starts today, most likely, they would win.  I think it'll be Kelly today, and I just hope Shota pitches well.  Then, tomorrow, Amaya will be the catcher, and Ben will pitch well.

You did say that Ben will pitch well because Amaya is behind the plate and if he's behind the plate today they would most likely win.  There are so many other variables that boiling the game down to who is catching being the major determinant of who wins the game makes you sound absolutely silly.

[mk49]

3 minutes ago, mul21 said:

 

You did say that Ben will pitch well because Amaya is behind the plate and if he's behind the plate today they would most likely win.  There are so many other variables that boiling the game down to who is catching being the major determinant of who wins the game makes you sound absolutely silly.

Yes, I agree with you.  That's why I said "most likely" and "Ben will pitch well" Those don't mean the Cubs will win.  We'll see how it goes.  We all want to see them win.

And, I'd be super happy, if I'm wrong, and Shota pitches great today.

Edited yesterday at 06:15 PM by mk49

[Neuby]

8 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Yes, using his starts just from this year is such a miniscule sample size that it's truly pointless.  Catcher ERA is also generally pointless outside of factors like we saw when Ross caught Lester because he was so atrocious at throwing to first that having a guy who could control the running game well was an actual difference maker.  Or guys we know are bad at calling a game like Wilson Contreras, but we can be fairly certain that's not a factor here based on how the Cubs select their catchers.

Saying catcher ERA is pointless is comical.  Make sure to watch the 2016 stuff Theo and Jed talk about how they saw surplus value in Ross because of catcher ERA, while others teams saw an overpay.