Miguel Amaya Needs to Start Feasting on Meatballs

[Jeremy Tecktiel]

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

With an expected batting average under .200 and an xwOBA under .300, one would think Miguel Amaya is in danger of losing his roster spot, especially with slightly below-average defense at a premium position. While he probably won’t push Carson Kelly to reclaim equal playing time any time soon, though, Amaya is holding his own. He has been 14% better than league average at the plate, despite his underlying metrics. Is it a mirage?

Although he only came to the plate 103 times, Amaya was 31% better than league average last season despite walking only 4 times. He had never had a walk rate that low before, but because he combined that with successfully pulling the ball in the air, his numbers didn’t take a hit. In 2026, he has a career-high walk rate (12%), but he's back to pulling the ball in the air less. Is it either/or, or can he do both?

In what appears to be a response to the loss of bat speed he's suffered, Amaya has swung a lot less frequently this year than he did in 2025. While cutting his chase rate from 36.8% to 27% is great, it has also come with cutting his swing rate at pitches in the zone by a similar percentage. Well, maybe that means he is taking more pitches around the edges, right? Here's his swing rate by pitch location for 2025:

And here's the same image for 2026:

            

As you can see, Amaya stopped swinging at pitches right down the middle, or “meatballs” as Statcast classifies them. In short, this is likely why his expected numbers are as low as they are. Those are pitches in the highest run value location, and Amaya is only swinging at 54% of them. Out of 337 hitters that have at least 75 plate appearances this year, that is good for 330th.

Another factor that is causing the difference in his underlying statistics is his contact quality. That's not surprising, once you consider that he's swinging in areas of the zone where one is less likely to barrel it up. There was ways to find hits with swings at pitches on the edges, but the damage comes mostly when you pounce on a mistake. Not quite organized in his understanding of the zone this year, Amaya isn't doing that.

Put it all together and it looks like he is struggling to adapt to this new, more passive approach. To be clear, sporting a .728 OPS as a backup catcher is a good thing. But his underlying metrics portend a regression to the mean is coming for Amaya. Correcting his contact quality and getting back to pulling the ball in the air depends on attacking pitches that permit those results, so if Amaya wants to fight off regression, the easiest path is to start swinging at those meatballs.

View full article