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Posted
20 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

There are alot of utility players between 25-30 that becomes FA every year.

Again, not saying it a bad sign, we dont know, was just saying how Hoyer loves to sign older utility and bullpen guys.

 

Here is a list of current MLB free agents aged 25-30. Which one of them is a utility player the Cubs could sign?

image.png

You've got guy like Luis Urias who was worth .1 fWAR last year. Luis Rengifo who's been a classic compiler who has never gotten to 2 fWAR n any full season and last year was worth 0 fWAR. Nick Madrigal, everyone loves Nick. Willi Castro is about the only good version of this, and the Cubs traded for him and have let him go. Most of these are either: guys who are going to start somewhere or pretty limited players. 

These magical 25-30 year old free agent utility players just don't exist, man. Hoyer signs those 30+ free agents for those roles because that's who's available. If you want to build out a bench you can trade for the Vidal Brujans' of the world (he was awesome, wasn't he?) or you sign Scott Kingery or a Jon Berti, or you sign Tyler Austin. Those are your choices, generally.

And to be clear, I'm not saying anything about evaluation or you saying it's bad...but the reason Hoyer signs those types is because that's what the market has available. I don't think Hoyer is specifically jazzed about older bench hitters or anything, it's just who's there.

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Posted

Between minor league options and the fact none of these guys make significant money you shouldn't write it in pen, but presumably the bench for next year is:

- Amaya

- Austin

- Alcantara

- TBD reserve infielder

With an opportunity for a Bregman signing to push Shaw into becoming that infielder.  There's also an option to have the lesser of Mo/Caissie replace Alcantara, but that means Seiya is your backup in CF.  I do not like that option, piss or get off the pot and commit to just one of them.

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Here is a list of current MLB free agents aged 25-30. Which one of them is a utility player the Cubs could sign?

image.png

You've got guy like Luis Urias who was worth .1 fWAR last year. Luis Rengifo who's been a classic compiler who has never gotten to 2 fWAR n any full season and last year was worth 0 fWAR. Nick Madrigal, everyone loves Nick. Willi Castro is about the only good version of this, and the Cubs traded for him and have let him go. Most of these are either: guys who are going to start somewhere or pretty limited players. 

These magical 25-30 year old free agent utility players just don't exist, man. Hoyer signs those 30+ free agents for those roles because that's who's available. If you want to build out a bench you can trade for the Vidal Brujans' of the world (he was awesome, wasn't he?) or you sign Scott Kingery or a Jon Berti, or you sign Tyler Austin. Those are your choices, generally.

And to be clear, I'm not saying anything about evaluation or you saying it's bad...but the reason Hoyer signs those types is because that's what the market has available. I don't think Hoyer is specifically jazzed about older bench hitters or anything, it's just who's there.

Disclaimer: Hey, dude--just to be clear, I disagree here, but not because it's you, it's the argument, or at least what it implies in regards to the team in general. You're awesome, and I'm not just saying that to say that. 👊

Jed Hoyer has the chance to sign individuals with more lucrative prospects that aren't free agents. In the FA world, of course he has to sign people like Austin, who are older but have more reliable stats (like fWAR), but this comes at the opportunity cost of decreasing team sustainability. So he resorts to his strategy, which you might be falling for here--decontextualizing the situation to convey "I have to" rather than "these choices undermine the team."

Hoyer is underwhelming; he refuses to make a deal to secure actually sustainable players who have the mix between age and reliability. Instead, we see a lopsided team where we get individuals like Tyler Austin, who've been experienced. However, I still can't see Imai around here; I think he will be going to San Francisco. And it's pretty much inevitable. The Cubs never have liked deferred money, contracts are underwhelming, and I still don't see Cody Bellinger around (someone I enjoy a lot and who has perfect), despite his projected decline in fWAR. 

So the circular loop of logic comes: it feels inevitable to sign players like Austin. But it's not. At this point, sustainability is decreasing at an exponential rate--Jed is only signing those whose contracts are shorter and who destabilize the foundation of the team. We have PCA, whose possibilities are explosive, but we also have Turner and now this new guy... a detractor for Imai. (Just kidding.) You're making the Superposition Error--being technically correct in a microcosmic situation but failing to understand the contacts of the extremely recessive policies being enacted under the Cubs' current "administration." 

Hoyer signs those types because it is obvious, but also because he does not want to spend more money on potential sustainability-increasing players who have not reached their absolute extrema. Ultimately, these players are only going to decrease in due time, and the cycle will perpetuate itself until fiscally expansive policies are enacted that contract cash inflow and promote sustainable development.

(Honestly, and I'm not saying it just to say this, this stats stuff is pretty much my new obsession and makes my nerves go haywire because I'm super excited, neuro stuff and all, so sorry if it seems overwhelming.)

What do you think, Jason?

 

 

Edited by The Cubs Dude
Posted
1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Between minor league options and the fact none of these guys make significant money you shouldn't write it in pen, but presumably the bench for next year is:

- Amaya

- Austin

- Alcantara

- TBD reserve infielder

With an opportunity for a Bregman signing to push Shaw into becoming that infielder.  There's also an option to have the lesser of Mo/Caissie replace Alcantara, but that means Seiya is your backup in CF.  I do not like that option, piss or get off the pot and commit to just one of them.

Where do Caissie and Moises fit in here?  Does Long ever get a shot?  

Posted
12 minutes ago, thawv said:

Where do Caissie and Moises fit in here?  Does Long ever get a shot?  

One of the lefties would be starting most days somewhere in the RF/DH mix.  The other would, if I had my way, be traded for pitching.

Long would hang out at Iowa and be the first injury callup in case a corner player gets hurt.  On a lesser team Long could open next year in MLB, but here he'll have to settle for being high quality depth.

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Posted
39 minutes ago, The Cubs Dude said:

Disclaimer: Hey, dude--just to be clear, I disagree here, but not because it's you, it's the argument, or at least what it implies in regards to the team in general. You're awesome, and I'm not just saying that to say that. 👊

Jed Hoyer has the chance to sign individuals with more lucrative prospects that aren't free agents. In the FA world, of course he has to sign people like Austin, who are older but have more reliable stats (like fWAR), but this comes at the opportunity cost of decreasing team sustainability. So he resorts to his strategy, which you might be falling for here--decontextualizing the situation to convey "I have to" rather than "these choices undermine the team."

Hoyer is underwhelming; he refuses to make a deal to secure actually sustainable players who have the mix between age and reliability. Instead, we see a lopsided team where we get individuals like Tyler Austin, who've been experienced. However, I still can't see Imai around here; I think he will be going to San Francisco. And it's pretty much inevitable. The Cubs never have liked deferred money, contracts are underwhelming, and I still don't see Cody Bellinger around (someone I enjoy a lot and who has perfect), despite his projected decline in fWAR. 

So the circular loop of logic comes: it feels inevitable to sign players like Austin. But it's not. At this point, sustainability is decreasing at an exponential rate--Jed is only signing those whose contracts are shorter and who destabilize the foundation of the team. We have PCA, whose possibilities are explosive, but we also have Turner and now this new guy... a detractor for Imai. (Just kidding.) You're making the Superposition Error--being technically correct in a microcosmic situation but failing to understand the contacts of the extremely recessive policies being enacted under the Cubs' current "administration." 

Hoyer signs those types because it is obvious, but also because he does not want to spend more money on potential sustainability-increasing players who have not reached their absolute extrema. Ultimately, these players are only going to decrease in due time, and the cycle will perpetuate itself until fiscally expansive policies are enacted that contract cash inflow and promote sustainable development.

(Honestly, and I'm not saying it just to say this, this stats stuff is pretty much my new obsession and makes my nerves go haywire because I'm super excited, neuro stuff and all, so sorry if it seems overwhelming.)

What do you think, Jason?

 

 

A bench signing is not about sustainability. Bench options, especially as roster rules have changed, are players that teams need to be able to "churn and burn" in many ways (much like the bullpen). They have small sample sizes, are relatively volatile, and have to have utility. With teams down to four bench spots, one of which is a catcher who likely provides no utility outside of "catcher", finding players who do a lot of things "okay" is the name of the game. Hoyer signs players like he has for the bench (Jon Berti, for example) because Berti could kind of play a lot of positions and could be okay at a lot of things. He was also easy to move on from - as the team did at the deadline, upgrading from Berti to Willi Castro.

The Cubs made mistakes in this end by offering multiple years and phantom options to players like Trey Mancini and Tucker Barnhart prior. While that money wasn't a massive hamstring, they carried millions of dead money over because within 3-months it was obvious those were not working in their roles.

The reason the Cubs signed Tyler Austin is because:
1. Has crushed LHP in Japan for a while and the Cubs are one of the teams who are the most ingrained into NPB baseball right now league wide. We can see this with their recent signings of Imanaga and Suzuki, they were involved heavily on Foster Griffen who signed with Washington, and have also attempted to sign young Japanese outfielders out of Japanese university to MiLB deals. This will be useful as the Cubs look to have Michael Busch (LHH) and one of Owen Caissie or Moises Ballesteros in the lineup (both are LHH). You need a LHP masher. The Cubs may have found that.
2. He's the exact type of "churn and burn" you need for the bench. If Tyler Austin is doing what you hope he does; awesome! But if he isn't, then you have to be able to move on relatively easily.  At $1,250,000 the Cubs can designate him for assignment, can easily turn to an internal option like Johnathon Long, in a similar role without any dead-money into next year.

He is also easily replaced next year with another version of Tyler Austin if he works out - much like how the Cubs have essentially swapped out Drew Pomeranz for Hoby Milner. This is how a modern bench is constructed.

I'm not going to muddy this discussion jumping from topic to topic, however. Imai has little to do with this. This is just about the bench.

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, thawv said:

Where do Caissie and Moises fit in here?  Does Long ever get a shot?  

Long could get his shot when they DFA Austin 🤷‍♂️

Edited by chibears55
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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

A bench signing is not about sustainability. Bench options, especially as roster rules have changed, are players that teams need to be able to "churn and burn" in many ways (much like the bullpen). They have small sample sizes, are relatively volatile, and have to have utility. With teams down to four bench spots, one of which is a catcher who likely provides no utility outside of "catcher", finding players who do a lot of things "okay" is the name of the game. Hoyer signs players like he has for the bench (Jon Berti, for example) because Berti could kind of play a lot of positions and could be okay at a lot of things. He was also easy to move on from - as the team did at the deadline, upgrading from Berti to Willi Castro.

The Cubs made mistakes in this end by offering multiple years and phantom options to players like Trey Mancini and Tucker Barnhart prior. While that money wasn't a massive hamstring, they carried millions of dead money over because within 3-months it was obvious those were not working in their roles.

The reason the Cubs signed Tyler Austin is because he is:
1. Has crushed LHP in Japan for a while and the Cubs are one of the teams who are the most ingrained into NPB baseball right now league wide. We can see this with their recent signings of Imanaga and Suzuki, they were involved heavily on Foster Griffen who signed with Washington, and have also attempted to sign young Japanese outfielders out of Japanese university to MiLB deals. 
2. He's the exact type of "churn and burn" you need for the bench. If Tyler Austin is doing what you hope he does; awesome! But if he isn't, then you have to be able to move on relatively easily.  At $1,250,000 the Cubs can designate him for assignment, can easily turn to and internal option like Johnathon Long, in a similar role without any dead-money into next year.

He is also easily replaced next year with another version of Tyler Austin if he works out - much like how the Cubs have essentially swapped out Drew Pomeranz for Hoby Milner. This is how a modern bench is constructed.

Thanks for that detailed response. I really appreciate the length of the answer. (How fast do you type?)

Again, I think you framed your argument in a really good way--and thanks for explaining the intricacies of the modern bench. I do feel stuck in 1908, both literally and figuratively!

I think it was a lack of precision and a proliferation of flowery language that clouded my previous argument. What I was trying to convey was the sequence of time and how Hoyer manages that time in what I think is an erratic way:

Hoyer will sign these bench players first for a relatively low amount of money. This decreases sustainability due to his intense focus on the bench and not starting pitchers or other high-profile players who have higher AAVs. As we all know, the Cubs definitely do not have a proclivity towards deferred money, so they use this excuse to expand their fiscally prudent policies.

In the end, Hoyer will continue to sign the bench with Gatsby-esque throws of extravagant money. He will always champion the cheap end, indirectly destabilizing the team, as I mentioned before. But when other stable, non-bench players like Bellinger and Imai show up (I believe that Imai will not be signed by the Cubs and be signed by the Giants), Hoyer completely neglects that side. When nostalgic allies like Schwarber pop up, Hoyer is unwilling to expend more than what he and Ricketts view as prudent. Therefore, these underwhelming contracts are likely the best we see--bench players ridden with volatility--and will affect the Cubs' performance on the macro level. Without any explosive starters or agile players who can surely replace Tucker or maybe even Shaw (in my opinion, but I believe Shaw has potential), our team will be focused more on that volatility you mentioned rather than long-term stability that involves the intersection of players who are gaining efficiency and losing efficiency rather than two parallel lines who don't intersect and where sustainability decreases over time.

There's nothing wrong with the concept of the bench, but there's something wrong with Hoyer's and Ricketts's fiscally restrictive policies.

 

Edited by The Cubs Dude
North Side Contributor
Posted
17 minutes ago, The Cubs Dude said:

Thanks for that detailed response. I really appreciate the length of the answer. (How fast do you type?)

Again, I think you framed your argument in a really good way--and thanks for explaining the intricacies of the modern bench. I do feel stuck in 1908, both literally and figuratively!

I think it was a lack of precision and a proliferation of flowery language that clouded my previous argument. What I was trying to convey was the sequence of time and how Hoyer manages that time in what I think is an erratic way:

Hoyer will sign these bench players first for a relatively low amount of money. This decreases sustainability due to his intense focus on the bench and not starting pitchers or other high-profile players who have higher AAVs. As we all know, the Cubs definitely do not have a proclivity towards deferred money, so they use this excuse to expand their fiscally prudent policies.

In the end, Hoyer will continue to sign the bench with Gatsby-esque throws of extravagant money. He will always champion the cheap end, indirectly destabilizing the team, as I mentioned before. But when other stable, non-bench players like Bellinger and Imai show up (I believe that Imai will not be signed by the Cubs and be signed by the Giants), Hoyer completely neglects that side. When nostalgic allies like Schwarber pop up, Hoyer is unwilling to expend more than what he and Ricketts view as prudent. Therefore, these underwhelming contracts are likely the best we see--bench players ridden with volatility--and will affect the Cubs' performance on the macro level. Without any explosive starters or agile players who can surely replace Tucker or maybe even Shaw (in my opinion, but I believe Shaw has potential), our team will be focused more on that volatility you mentioned rather than long-term stability that involves the intersection of players who are gaining efficiency and losing efficiency rather than two parallel lines who don't intersect and where sustainability decreases over time.

There's nothing wrong with the concept of the bench, but there's something wrong with Hoyer's and Ricketts's fiscally restrictive policies.

 

The Cubs scored the 5th most runs last year, and entered the offseason with the fifth highest-fWAR projection of position players while losing Kyle Tucker. It's hard to say the Cubs are not interested in sustainability when they're clearly sustaining their production based on fWAR projection systems. As teams add players, they will drop in fWAR projections, but their current projections put them as a top-10 team almost any year without adding anything and there is a bulk of the offseason to go. The Cubs reportedly have at least $40m left to spend, and they can't and won't spend it on 15 Tyler Austins. 

Beyond that, the Cubs' position players especially, have been with the team for a while. Hoerner and Happ were drafted by the organization and signed a second contract, Seiya Suzuki is entering year-5. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Matt Shaw, Miguel Amya, Michael Busch, Owen Caissie and Moises Ballesteros are all controlled for 4+ years. Dansby Swanson is three years into a seven year contract. The Cubs are sustainable. 

Would it be nice to see the Cubs add some impact talent? Sure thing. I think that's going to happen. I don't agree with you on Imai and the Giants, there's almost no smoke out there on it. The smoke has been billowing towards two teams all week, the Cubs and the Yankees and recent reports from the Yankees owned sports network tonight suggest the Yankees don't feel confident he'll end up there. Could the Giants play possum? Sure, let's not count it out, but beyond personal opinions, there's nothing suggesting the Giants are that into him here. In fact, Ken Rosenthal just a few days ago said that the team didn't seem prepared to sign at the top-of-the-market and Imai, at this point, probably is the top-of the market (or second behind Valdez). 

So let's see where it goes. Ultimately, none of this is really why the reasons behind what I was showcasing before on free agents aged 25-30; the Cubs are not looking for big spending when they fill out a bench. Will they break the mold this offseason and add Imai, or Bregman, or something like that? We'll see. As of now, I think the winds on Tatsuya Imai are blowing towards Chicago based on all publicly held information. So while I wouldn't buy an Imai jersey if I were you, I think getting a little hopeful there feels realistic.

Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

The Cubs scored the 5th most runs last year, and entered the offseason with the fifth highest-fWAR projection of position players while losing Kyle Tucker. It's hard to say the Cubs are not interested in sustainability when they're clearly sustaining their production based on fWAR projection systems. As teams add players, they will drop in fWAR projections, but their current projections put them as a top-10 team almost any year without adding anything and there is a bulk of the offseason to go. The Cubs reportedly have at least $40m left to spend, and they can't and won't spend it on 15 Tyler Austins. 

Beyond that, the Cubs' position players especially, have been with the team for a while. Hoerner and Happ were drafted by the organization and signed a second contract, Seiya Suzuki is entering year-5. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Matt Shaw, Miguel Amya, Michael Busch, Owen Caissie and Moises Ballesteros are all controlled for 4+ years. Dansby Swanson is three years into a seven year contract. The Cubs are sustainable. 

Would it be nice to see the Cubs add some impact talent? Sure thing. I think that's going to happen. I don't agree with you on Imai and the Giants, there's almost no smoke out there on it. The smoke has been billowing towards two teams all week, the Cubs and the Yankees and recent reports from the Yankees owned sports network tonight suggest the Yankees don't feel confident he'll end up there. Could the Giants play possum? Sure, let's not count it out, but beyond personal opinions, there's nothing suggesting the Giants are that into him here. In fact, Ken Rosenthal just a few days ago said that the team didn't seem prepared to sign at the top-of-the-market and Imai, at this point, probably is the top-of the market (or second behind Valdez). 

So let's see where it goes. Ultimately, none of this is really why the reasons behind what I was showcasing before on free agents aged 25-30; the Cubs are not looking for big spending when they fill out a bench. Will they break the mold this offseason and add Imai, or Bregman, or something like that? We'll see. As of now, I think the winds on Tatsuya Imai are blowing towards Chicago based on all publicly held information. So while I wouldn't buy an Imai jersey if I were you, I think getting a little hopeful there feels realistic.

With Imai--maybe, maybe not. I hope he lands in Chicago. The post about 25-30 just reminded me of the grievances I've been having with Hoyer and how he's signing all of the bench players without thinking about spending large amounts of money towards other beneficial players. You're right--it's tangential and didn't do anything about the bench in particular, but I always find a way to hate management.

A random question: Did you major in stats? Because you're pretty horsefeathers smart. I'm planning to major in Econ/PolSci, but I'm probably going on another non-baseball tangent.

At the end of the day, we have to wait for Imai. And if he does go to the Yankees or even the Giants, I'm going to be heavily disappointed--I do think that he has a good chance of going to the Cubs, but I still think that my mind is being emotional there because of my team affiliation. 

Sorry for making you write all of that, haha. I have nothin' better to do, and I'm tired as well. But you're a cool dude. I apologize again for antagonizing you.

Have an awesome day!

Edited by The Cubs Dude
North Side Contributor
Posted
3 minutes ago, The Cubs Dude said:

With Imai--maybe, maybe not. I hope he lands in Chicago. The post about 25-30 just reminded me of the grievances I've been having with Hoyer and how he's signing all of the bench players without thinking about spending large amounts of money towards other beneficial players. You're right--it's tangential and didn't do anything about the bench in particular, but I always find a way to hate management.

A random question: Did you major in stats? Because you're pretty horsefeathers smart. I'm planning to major in Econ/PolSci, but I'm probably going on another non-baseball tangent.

At the end of the day, we have to wait for Imai. And if he does go to the Yankees or even the Giants, I'm going to be heavily disappointed--I do think that he has a good chance of going to the Cubs, but I still think that my mind is being emotional there because of my team affiliation. 

Sorry for making you write all of that, haha. I have nothin' better to do, and I'm tired as well. But you're a cool dude. I apologize again for antagonizing you.

Have an awesome day!

To be clear, I don't think the Cubs have an obsession with the bench - the bench by nature is more easily changed; bench players sign for a year, are cheaper...where as starting options cost significantly more in years and dollars. It's also sometimes easier early in the offseason to get Tyler Austin to sign than, say, Michael King or Tatsuya Imai. We'll see what happens. A good reminder; the Cubs biggest move last offseason happened December 13th and they almost signed their second biggest deal in February. So I think there's just some waiting involved. 

Not a stats major, just someone who likes baseball, so despite lacking plenty of care in math, I can find a way to force my way through it. I also have had many, many smart people teach me many, many things. I stand on the shoulder of giants, good sir. In all honesty, I often feel like a fraud - that's not me saying this for pity or anything - but because I feel that way, I force myself to learn more so that I don't feel that way. Consider it an internal push to ensure I keep learning. When you enjoy something, it's not work. 

Everything else is water under the bridge. Tomorrow matters far more than yesterday.

Posted
2 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Now we have 2 posters who writes essays on here to read 😅😅😅

I did it, do it, and will do it on every forum. And the best comment I've ever gotten from an annoyed user on a different forum was

"I mean this is some forum you don’t have to write like an essay lmao." I laugh at that comment and it's become a source of pride for me.

It's a badge of honor. But yeah, I guess Jason and I are the only ones who do it. Someone thought I was the Temu Jason earlier this week, haha. 

Writing gets my juices flowing, dude!

 

Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

To be clear, I don't think the Cubs have an obsession with the bench - the bench by nature is more easily changed; bench players sign for a year, are cheaper...where as starting options cost significantly more in years and dollars. It's also sometimes easier early in the offseason to get Tyler Austin to sign than, say, Michael King or Tatsuya Imai. We'll see what happens. A good reminder; the Cubs biggest move last offseason happened December 13th and they almost signed their second biggest deal in February. So I think there's just some waiting involved. 

Not a stats major, just someone who likes baseball, so despite lacking plenty of care in math, I can find a way to force my way through it. I also have had many, many smart people teach me many, many things. I stand on the shoulder of giants, good sir. In all honesty, I often feel like a fraud - that's not me saying this for pity or anything - but because I feel that way, I force myself to learn more so that I don't feel that way. Consider it an internal push to ensure I keep learning. When you enjoy something, it's not work. 

Everything else is water under the bridge. Tomorrow matters far more than yesterday.

I'm surprised you've learned this much without having majored in stats. It's true that when you enjoy something, it's not work. When I learned Spanish, I didn't feel like it was a chore--it was an avenue to a different world, one I could enjoy through speaking to others who were previously inaccessible.

And I have a lot to learn ahead. So many people hate me at school for being "smarter" than them, when in reality I dress things up and sound smart when I don't like myself deep down and wish I was someone different, someone more likable, someone less stupid. I think I'm a fraud as well--just another person in this world, but I'm glad I'm here. Because I want to change people's lives and let them take control. And it's something emotional for me--I was hurt a lot in my early years and was emotionally wavering because no one liked me--so sometimes I do that to other people in anger, and it's what I did to you. And I shouldn't have done that. Deep down, I just want to be liked. Just liked, wanted, loved. And I've gotten that back slowly, and I've been battling in the arena of life for a long time, thinking about my steps along the way. And I've met some awesome people in real life who helped me realize that I belong.

Dwelling on the past is my biggest mistake, but something I continue to do.

If I could teach you anything, it's that your life is yours--no one else's. But I'm just a high school student, so I know nothing yet. 

And I love learning new stuff. Again, on a lighter note, I'm both popular and nerdy (well, I hope I'm popular, anyway). So that's why I tend to listen to people who are older than me more--who know life experience, who want to hear me out, who appreciate the philosophical nature of my conversations.

Have an awesome night. 

Santa, for Christmas, I would love the Cubs to acquire Tatsuya Imai... Please, please, please......

Edited by The Cubs Dude
Posted
16 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

I mean, Austin had a 147 wRC+ in NPB. I'm not sure Austin will or won't hit at the MLB level at age-34 coming back over, but he absolutely smashed Japanese pitching for years so I don't think we know if he'll hit. 

Good news is at $1,250,000 for the year, the Cubs aren't beholden to Austin at all.

Would it be reasonable to day we marginally improved our back up first baseman at a lower cost.  We need to start filling bench spots our 40 man is still well below 40 correct?

North Side Contributor
Posted
11 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

Would it be reasonable to day we marginally improved our back up first baseman at a lower cost.  We need to start filling bench spots our 40 man is still well below 40 correct?

I think there's a real chance! It's hard to say exactly what this guy is going to be as a 34-year old who hasn't played MLB for a long time. But his profile feels like it'll play as a LHP masher. He's crunched lefties in the NPB and left handed pitchers just throw less hard league wide, so there's probably less of that "well maybe he won't hit velocity" question we have to do with NPB hitters. 

It's a pretty fun, cheap, dart throw at fixing the platoon situation, I think. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

I think there's a real chance! It's hard to say exactly what this guy is going to be as a 34-year old who hasn't played MLB for a long time. But his profile feels like it'll play as a LHP masher. He's crunched lefties in the NPB and left handed pitchers just throw less hard league wide, so there's probably less of that "well maybe he won't hit velocity" question we have to do with NPB hitters. 

It's a pretty fun, cheap, dart throw at fixing the platoon situation, I think. 

Sounds like he is more Patrick Wisdom than Justin Turner. But that would be an improvement over last year. 

North Side Contributor
Posted
11 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Sounds like he is more Patrick Wisdom than Justin Turner. But that would be an improvement over last year. 

Patrick Wisdom isn't the name I'd go with. He was under a 19% K% against LHP last year. Wisdom struck out almost 30% of the time in the KBO, and 37.9% against LHP over his career in the States. We should expect Austin to probably K more than 19% against lefties next year, but I don't expect a 20% increase in strikeouts, either. 

Austin only hit 11 home runs last year (245 PA's) so I don't think the power is going to be there like Wisdom, either. 

Ultimately, I think Austin is going to be more like what we hoped Justin Turner to be last year if you put a gun to my head - someone who's going to give you a strong AB while adding double digit home runs. 

Posted
7 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Patrick Wisdom isn't the name I'd go with. He was under a 19% K% against LHP last year. Wisdom struck out almost 30% of the time in the KBO, and 37.9% against LHP over his career in the States. We should expect Austin to probably K more than 19% against lefties next year, but I don't expect a 20% increase in strikeouts, either. 

Austin only hit 11 home runs last year (245 PA's) so I don't think the power is going to be there like Wisdom, either. 

Ultimately, I think Austin is going to be more like what we hoped Justin Turner to be last year if you put a gun to my head - someone who's going to give you a strong AB while adding double digit home runs. 

Going strictly off on ML stats he is pretty much Patrick Wisdom. Under 600 PA and 215 K’s. 33 homers in 522 AB. Low .200’s BA with high”ish” slugging. Not sure if we can use Japan numbers to suggest less K’s or less power.  Also not sure it is fair to compare state stats from 5 years ago, so who really knows🤷. I am hoping for a better Wisdom. Maybe 25% K’s and as you said, hits 10+ homers. Maybe more, depending on the amount of AB he gets. Regardless, hoping for a Turner upgrade.

North Side Contributor
Posted
3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Going strictly off on ML stats he is pretty much Patrick Wisdom. Under 600 PA and 215 K’s. 33 homers in 522 AB. Low .200’s BA with high”ish” slugging. Not sure if we can use Japan numbers to suggest less K’s or less power.  Also not sure it is fair to compare state stats from 5 years ago, so who really knows🤷. I am hoping for a better Wisdom. Maybe 25% K’s and as you said, hits 10+ homers. Maybe more, depending on the amount of AB he gets. Regardless, hoping for a Turner upgrade.

He's madeajor mechanical changes. I don't think I'd rely on MLB numbers from 2019 at this stage as any sort of basis for what he will be. 

Again, I wouldn't project over a 19% strike out rate against lefties, but what he was over half a decade ago isn't it, either. 

It's probably less strikeouts than he had in MLB in 2019 and more than in NPB. I'd guess something like 22-24%.

Posted
21 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

He's madeajor mechanical changes. I don't think I'd rely on MLB numbers from 2019 at this stage as any sort of basis for what he will be. 

Again, I wouldn't project over a 19% strike out rate against lefties, but what he was over half a decade ago isn't it, either. 

It's probably less strikeouts than he had in MLB in 2019 and more than in NPB. I'd guess something like 22-24%.

ok, that’s fair. Lets call it a combination of  2021 Wisdom and 2024 Turner.

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