Winter Meetings Thread

[BKHoo]

Is there any type of meta analysis that’s been done on long term contracts in baseball? 

[Bertz]

8 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Is there any type of meta analysis that’s been done on long term contracts in baseball? 

I mean at this point they're pretty much optimized.  You see a long term contract for like $300M and the ZiPS projection comes out and it's a trivial difference like "the model had him worth $293M."  There are exceptions, the model HATED the Schwarber deal for example, but mostly the market is stable.

Ultimately it's just about timeliness.  When you sign a long term contract for $30M a year you're expecting to get like $50-60M worth of production each of the first few years and like replacement level production by the very end.  So it's not "is this a good idea or a bad idea" it's moreso "is *now* the right time for this sort of contract?"  For example there's this perception of like "WTF the Dodgers sign everyone!!"  And the last two offseasons that absolutely happened.  But look back the ten years prior to that and it wasn't true at all.  

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

  For example there's this perception of like "WTF the Dodgers sign everyone!!"  And the last two offseasons that absolutely happened.  But look back the ten years prior to that and it wasn't true at all.  

Dodgers since as long as i can remember, has always made up their rosters with mostly home grown talent and then added top notch veteran players where needed via trade and FA to surround them with.

It's like a revolving door of talent for them in their system and why they have always been an above 500 team just about every season 

[Bertz]

He's really good so I'm not going to say this is dumb, but man that's aggressive for a 35 year old with the slowest fastball in the league.

Also he probably doesn't make sense after adding Milner but I think Taylor Rogers is probably gonna end up being a bargain for somebody.

[thawv]

12 hours ago, Cuzi said:

You can pretty much count on every single one of these mega contracts ending under water.

However, the market is more than willing to eat the back end of these deals knowing that they are saving on the AAV up front to build a better team initially and then on the back end the contract will not be taking up as much of the tax limit because that threshold is going to continue to rise.

The Cubs are avoiding that market all together. So the best players are signing with other teams willing to pay market prices. Then the Cubs are left with paying over market prices on an annual basis to avoid the back end on lesser quality players. So they spend more of the budget on worse players. It makes no sense.

Lets avoid spending $35M on 1 player that gets us 4-5 WAR so we can turn around and spend $20-25M on 2 players each to get that 5 WAR.

This pretty much sums it up

[Rcal10]

With Jansen signing the Cubs are down to Fairbanks or bringing Keller back. Maybe Kopech. Not sure I consider him a high end pen arm. As far as starting pitchers go, has to be King or Imai. I don’t see them in on Suarez of Valdez. If not either of them are we looking at Giolito types? Most expensive bat I can see them even considering is Okamato. But it will probably be someone less expensive. This could very well turn into a very disappointing off season. The only way I see them upping the ante in the pen or with a bat is if they trade for the starting pitcher. It could still end well, but a lot of work to do and a lot of potential roadblocks. 

[Neuby]

So Phil Maton was the head addition to the bullpen this offseason? Not much left.

 

Fairbanks

Keller

Luke Weaver

Taylor Rogers

Pierce Johnson 

Ryan Stanek

Kirby Yates

Evan Phillips

Kopech

Nick Martinez

Liam Hendricks

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, Neuby said:

So Phil Maton was the head addition to the bullpen this offseason? Not much left.

 

Fairbanks

Keller

Luke Weaver

Taylor Rogers

Pierce Johnson 

Ryan Stanek

Kirby Yates

Evan Phillips

Kopech

Nick Martinez

Liam Hendricks

Weaver wouldn’t be bad….. I guess.

[Guest]

On 12/12/2025 at 2:47 PM, BKHoo said:

Is there any type of meta analysis that’s been done on long term contracts in baseball? 

No. But you just gave me my next project!

What do you want me to analyze in particular? I might have it done within a week.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Weaver wouldn’t be bad….. I guess.

True. I was thinking Hendricks would not be that bad either.

[Dfan25]

12 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Weaver wouldn’t be bad….. I guess.

I don’t think they have any money left for a significant pen add. It’s something like Stanek and a bunch of Collin Snyder ‘s from this point on , if they are willing to do one more guarantee . 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

I don’t think they have any money left for a significant pen add. It’s something like Stanek and a bunch of Collin Snyder ‘s from this point on , if they are willing to do one more guarantee . 

That is true. Jed wants to squeeze everything out of every single dollar being paid; that's the problem.

[Stratos]

23 hours ago, Bertz said:

He's really good so I'm not going to say this is dumb, but man that's aggressive for a 35 year old with the slowest fastball in the league.

Also he probably doesn't make sense after adding Milner but I think Taylor Rogers is probably gonna end up being a bargain for somebody.

Agree, that's a lot of money and years for a guy that old.  The current velo doesn't concern me like the age.  Velo and weird slots make everything else play up, so obviously the slot seems to make up for the velo.

Also wonder how the EV of batted balls from hitters is impacted by such low pitch velos.  He has 99th percentile exit velos.  Basic physics would say no way you can hit a ball as hard off 83mph as 97mph.

Anyways, the guy is an absolute freak and his sinker might be the craziest pitch i've ever seen on one of these graphs vs the league avg, and his slider also breaks UP:

Edited December 14, 2025 by Stratos

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Agree, that's a lot of money and years for a guy that old.  The current velo doesn't concern me like the age.  Velo and weird slots make everything else play up, so obviously the slot seems to make up for the velo.

Also wonder how the EV of batted balls from hitters is impacted by such low pitch velos.  He has 99th percentile exit velos.  Basic physics would say no way you can hit a ball as hard off 83mph as 97mph.

Anyways, the guy is an absolute freak and his sinker might be the craziest pitch i've ever seen on one of these graphs vs the league avg, and his slider also breaks UP:

Yeah. I would definitely argue that this compensates for the loss in velo--would even say that it provides a unique advantage.

How do I insert an image? I still don't know how to do with with a URL. 

That slider is pretty much an anomaly and a deadly pitch. Would like to see it used a little more, but the sinker is pretty awesome too.

Thinking about sustainability, though... the amount of money does exceed the potential for growth, because 35-year-old players have reached their absolute peak and are only going to theoretically descend from there... let me compute some stats for a sec and I'll come up with a conclusion about his projection. But this still diversifies the Cubs even more and makes them more challenging, farther away from the standard fastball repertoire!

 

[Guest]

On 12/11/2025 at 4:50 PM, Jason Ross said:

So the Steele thing was less about "what he's done" but that second sentence of his fastball. I don't really think we've seen that next evolution of what Zombro can do with Steele's fastball. He's been a reliable pop-up getter in bulk, but the idea was really the pitch style. Probably didn't make that clear enough - that's the real golden ticket I think.  He's done decently well on getting popups in the past, and I think the Cubs will help get some more out of him with the way he throws that pitch. 

I also do think it's repeatable with, especially, the ride of fastballs. Fastballs that ride up, ride over barrels. We can think of this way: curveballs correlate to ground balls because of their downward motion. Fastballs that ride up over a barrel corelate with balls in the air.  The Cubs had the third most ride on their fastballs last year. The Cubs definitely have a lot of cut (5th most horizontal movement on their fastball group). They also, by far and away, throw the most fastballs. So I'd say that the Cubs certainly use this to their advantage and yes, I do think it's repeatable, much like a ground ball pitcher is repeatable. 

Lastly, I don't think I've ever once said (and forgive me if I have, maybe I have and you'll show it to me) that the Cubs shouldn't get the best projected players. But if we're talking run prevention, and we're talking the Chicago Cubs, than I think we have to find ways to outkick the coverage when they can. The Cubs aren't going to put forth a budget where they're going to snap up every who's just the best - and especially this year with the rumored $50m they have. Part of that is going to be creating a symbiotic relationship to what they have; a ballpark that does not play nicely right now for hitters, a defense that deletes runs, and by finding any way to create outs that convert at a high rate; which includes that concept of popups. 

I don't think we'll waltz into the season as a team who projects as a top-5 run prevention team, but I think with a combination of everything, money spent on the right pitchers (and the bulk of that $50m or whatever), internal development on year 2 of Tyler Zombro's integration, and a symbiotic relationship between the other factors...that the Cubs can become that kind of team that prevents runs that outkick the FIP projections. I like FIP, but I think there's some real limitations within (batted balls I think matter more and more as I explore) and looking beyond FIP is the next frontier for our understanding of run prevention, specifically, in general. And to be clear, I'm not alone on the concerns with FIP based projection. I will admit I don't always agree with Jarrett Seidler, and I think he's, at his nicest "overly antagonistic"...but he also is pretty smart:

https://bsky.app/profile/seidler.bsky.social/post/3m6it26uqrc2s

I do think we are moving to a point where FIP based everything is probably getting a bit outdated. Which also goes back to my beliefs here. I'm not suggesting we entirely throw out pitcher fWAR or xFIP, it's still the best we have, but that we are probably missing swaths of understanding of pitching with FIP as our current foundation and that we should probably keep that in mind. 

Don't worry about offending me; we're talking baseball, we can disagree. I'd hate if all we did was agree - that's boring. And I think it makes both of us smarter. Iron sharpens iron, and by challenging each other, we dive deeper into the concept. Frankly, I've learned more already because of this conversation, so no offense has been taken at all, more of a "thank you for the challenge, I feel like I understand my point better now because you've forced me to dive deeper into it".

And you can't offend me, I've taught middle school children for 15 years now. "Yo, Mr. Ross, your shoes look like bowling shoes" is the meanest thing anyone has ever said to me, and you can't top that. I bought new shoes that night.

Well, you've offended me more than any middle school child. I'm actually annoyed, sad, frustrated, and angry simultaneously. I feel betrayed by you. In fact, I'm nauseous right now.

Edited December 14, 2025 by The Cubs Dude

[Hot Sauce]

On 12/11/2025 at 4:50 PM, Jason Ross said:

And you can't offend me, I've taught middle school children for 15 years now. "Yo, Mr. Ross, your shoes look like bowling shoes" is the meanest thing anyone has ever said to me, and you can't top that. I bought new shoes that night.

This got a snort laugh out of me. 😆

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Hot Sauce said:

This got a snort laugh out of me. 😆

What is disgusting is that he implicitly assumed my mental conditions and said that in a private chat.

Funny when I expressed my desires to report him--he had deleted all the messages.

Now, I'm dizzy, nauseous, and nervous. To an extreme. I gotta get this sorted out for my own sanity. And I find it sad that many here don't like me. It's getting on my nerves. This is by far the worst reception I've ever received. 😞

Anyway, what do you think about the trade-off between velos and diverse repertoires?

[Hot Sauce]

1 minute ago, The Cubs Dude said:

What is disgusting is that he implicitly assumed my mental conditions and said that in a private chat.

Funny when I expressed my desires to report him--he had deleted all the messages.

Now, I'm dizzy, nauseous, and nervous. To an extreme. I gotta get this sorted out for my own sanity. And I find it sad that many here don't like me. It's getting on my nerves. This is by far the worst reception I've ever received. 😞

Anyway, what do you think about the trade-off between velos and diverse repertoires?

I think you have him confused for someone else, mate. I am familiar with Jason back to his 1908 days on the PSD Cubs forum. I have never known him to be anything less than respectful to everyone.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Hot Sauce said:

I think you have him confused for someone else, mate. I am familiar with Jason back to his 1908 days on the PSD Cubs forum. I have never known him to be anything less than respectful to everyone.

Nope--it was Jason Ross, for sure...

What 1908 days?

Edit: In the analogy thread, he said: 

I teach 7th and 8th grade history, and I think musicals are creepy, but I'm on a Napoleon kick (ADHD and Autism are two sides of the same coin and I got the ADHD version of neurospice) so I'll allow it.

There's one phrase that doesn't fit, and he mentioned to me in a private comment that he "knew all along." I have PDD-NOS, recall, but he was insistent on knowing I had some neurodivergence. And when I mentioned I was a high school student, he never talked to me on this forum again. 

I'm offended, disgusted, appalled, and annoyed.

But whatever. He's a moderator and author, and supposedly a teacher as well, but he needs to know that those comments are hurtful.

Edited December 14, 2025 by The Cubs Dude

[Hot Sauce]

4 minutes ago, The Cubs Dude said:

Nope--it was Jason Ross, for sure...

What 1908 days?

Edit: In the analogy thread, he said: 

I teach 7th and 8th grade history, and I think musicals are creepy, but I'm on a Napoleon kick (ADHD and Autism are two sides of the same coin and I got the ADHD version of neurospice) so I'll allow it.

There's one phrase that doesn't fit, and he mentioned to me in a private comment that he "knew all along." I have PDD-NOS, recall, but he was insistent on knowing I had some neurodivergence. And when I mentioned I was a high school student, he never talked to me on this forum again. 

I'm offended, disgusted, appalled, and annoyed.

But whatever. He's a moderator and author, and supposedly a teacher as well, but he needs to know that those comments are hurtful.

"1908" was part of his previous username before he changed it to Jason Ross.

He is indeed a teacher, a genuinely good dude, and a knowledgable baseball fan. You can learn a lot from him. Heck, a lot of what he delves into is too much for my punch drunk brain to fully grasp.

I know he welcomed you to the forum when others were busting your balls a little too much, and in all the years I've read his posts, he's always been polite and respectful. Trust me on that. Perhaps there was a misunderstanding? I am confident that it was never his intention to offend you.

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, Hot Sauce said:

"1908" was part of his previous username before he changed it to Jason Ross.

He is indeed a teacher, a genuinely good dude, and a knowledgable baseball fan. You can learn a lot from him. Heck, a lot of what he delves into is too much for my punch drunk brain to fully grasp.

I know he welcomed you to the forum when others were busting your balls a little too much, and in all the years I've read his posts, he's always been polite and respectful. Trust me on that. Perhaps there was a misunderstanding? I am confident that it was never his intention to offend you.

Eh....... I really think it might be. When you've got me on the verge of vomiting, crying, and making me feel terrible about myself, I think it was intentional to get me off of here.

Then why would he delete his messages to me when it was my intention to report them?

Slight correction: sauce-drunk brain. Haha.

I love baseball. I love the Cubs so much. And I want to talk so much baseball. But I don't know at this point what I should do.

Edited December 14, 2025 by The Cubs Dude

[Hot Sauce]

12 minutes ago, The Cubs Dude said:

Eh....... I really think it might be. When you've got me on the verge of vomiting, crying, and making me feel terrible about myself, I think it was intentional to get me off of here.

Then why would he delete his messages to me when it was my intention to report them?

Slight correction: sauce-drunk brain. Haha.

I love baseball. I love the Cubs so much. And I want to talk so much baseball. But I don't know at this point what I should do.

Sauce-drunk indeed! I had wings for dinner tonight! 😄

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Hot Sauce said:

Sauce-drunk indeed! I had wings for dinner tonight! 😄

That sounds rather delicious, dude! 👊

I'm going to start another thread soon about Edward Cabrera...

And it's midnight but I cannot find a way to sleep. Shame on Jed for not announcing anything exciting.

Edited December 14, 2025 by The Cubs Dude

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Hot Sauce said:

This got a snort laugh out of me. 😆

I also literally laughed out loud.

[Stratos]

On 12/11/2025 at 5:50 PM, Jason Ross said:

I like FIP, but I think there's some real limitations within (batted balls I think matter more and more as I explore) and looking beyond FIP is the next frontier for our understanding of run prevention, specifically, in general. And to be clear, I'm not alone on the concerns with FIP based projection. I will admit I don't always agree with Jarrett Seidler, and I think he's, at his nicest "overly antagonistic"...but he also is pretty smart:

https://bsky.app/profile/seidler.bsky.social/post/3m6it26uqrc2s

...

I do think we are moving to a point where FIP based everything is probably getting a bit outdated. Which also goes back to my beliefs here. I'm not suggesting we entirely throw out pitcher fWAR or xFIP, it's still the best we have, but that we are probably missing swaths of understanding of pitching with FIP as our current foundation and that we should probably keep that in mind. 

Totally agree.  Lots of things FIP doesn't factor, including quality of contact as you mention.  E.g. it also wouldn't factor a guy like Matthew Boyd's ability to hold and pick off runners.  I'd imagine the Cubs and other orgs have long had their own internal stats created by their own stat geeks that go well beyond FIP/xFIP and fWAR.  Too bad us fans have to settle for some of the older/simpler stats.