Cubs sign Phil Maton

[Rcal10]

9 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

The Cubs really do hate velocity. Maton is a fine 7th inning guy but we're now at the point that I just don’t think it's financially possible to address SP, a bat upgrade and a premium even if 1 of the 3 is done via trade. 

I think if they get the pitcher via trade (Ryan, Cabrera or Gore, as examples) and then maybe add Refsnyder and Castro to the bench they can get pen arms by spending a bit. Maybe even extend PCA. 

[Neuby]

 I'm really curious on the contract details. 

Edited November 22, 2025 by Neuby

[Hunter]

double post

Edited November 22, 2025 by Hunter
double post

[Hunter]

2 hours ago, Neuby said:

Paying him less than Kittridge is a plus. Maton is probably a Cubs fan having grown up in KY.

While I am a Cubs fan, most of the people here in KY that watch baseball are Reds fans.

[Post Count Padder]

Cerami got the goods

 

https://x.com/Michael_Cerami/status/1992285585277383063?t=iIuSeCap16MUP7xE909N5A&s=19

[Bertz]

The team obviously needs a couple more anchor guys, I'm hoping for four guys I'd trust in leverage right from game 1 next year.  

But there's a lot of lesser names out there too, especially after last night's tender deadline.  Some names that stick out:

Mark Leiter Jr. - He had an awful 2nd half I believe tied to injury.  Bring him home

Sam Hentges - Missed all of last year and I'm sure the medicals are dicey, but he was a certified monster from '22 to '24

Caleb Ferguson - Strikeout rate backed way up last year, but the stuff models still love him.  Was still death on lefties even without the K's.  If you put a gun to my head to find 2026 Thielbar I think this is him

Taylor Rogers - He got buried after we traded for him because of a couple of bad outings and because the circle of trust was already full, but his peripherals were stellar and there's a long history of quality leverage work

[WhyCantWeWin]

8 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

Cerami got the goods

 

https://x.com/Michael_Cerami/status/1992285585277383063?t=iIuSeCap16MUP7xE909N5A&s=19

Probably Leiter jr lmao

[Jason Ross]

Per Cerami and BN: Cubs are aiming "even higher" than Phil Maton still. Article mentions by name Devin Williams, Brad Keller and Pete Fairbanks, though more speculative than definitive on those names. 

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2025/11/22/cubs-free-agent-relievers/

[WhyCantWeWin]

Didnt Fairbanks lose more ticks off his fastball? Might be their guy, they seem to covet those types. 

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Didnt Fairbanks lose more ticks off his fastball? Might be their guy, they seem to covet those types. 

His fastball dropped from averaging around 99 mph to 97mph back in 2024. He maintained that level of fastball in 2025. 

Fairbanks may be someone they are interested in, but his 97mph fastball is about where Brad Keller is as a reliever. 

Devin Williams probably fits the most in terms of "what the Cubs like". He has a shallow arm angle that we have seen the Cubs gravitate towards. 

[Dfan25]

From what I read , Devin Williams market looks pretty strong despite the high era last season .  
 

One thing that’s gives some hope there is that apparently he would prefer to sign with a mid west team ( He is from St Louis ) . Already met with the Reds  Also the connection with Counsell .

 The athletic writers sort of rule him out earlier , but if they were willing to give Scott 4 years last offseason , it doesn’t make sense to me not to pursue Williams this offseason when the team is coming  of a playoff berth .

I think  they could look at Williams , especially if they trade for someone like Cabrera and his 4 million salary 

Edited November 22, 2025 by Dfan25

[Dfan25]

Fairbanks does seem more likely to me than Williams . Cubs have been connected to him in the past , and the Athletic writers said to keep an eye on him 

Edited November 22, 2025 by Dfan25

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Fairbanks does seem more likely to me than Williams . Cubs have been connected to him in the past , and the Athletic writers said to keep an eye on him 

Yeah, and between those three, he's the least desirable. His K% has dropped with the decline in fastball. But you could probably tell yourself that a winter with Zombro and Tread Athletics that he could get some back. And at that point he's almost as good. 

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Fairbanks does seem more likely to me than Williams . Cubs have been connected to him in the past , and the Athletic writers said to keep an eye on him 

Either would work for me. But I agree with you that Fairbanks seems more in line what they appear to be willing to offer. 

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Yeah, and between those three, he's the least desirable. His K% has dropped with the decline in fastball. But you could probably tell yourself that a winter with Zombro and Tread Athletics that he could get some back. And at that point he's almost as good. 

Who is the 3rd we are talking about? I see Williams and Fairbanks. 

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Who is the 3rd we are talking about? I see Williams and Fairbanks. 

Brad Keller was the third name listed by BN and Cerami from the article I posted above. Again, none were listed as much more than speculation, but considering Cerami is both the guy who nailed the Maton signing and is the guy with the source here those names seem likely in terms of what his report was about as well 

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Brad Keller was the third name listed by BN and Cerami from the article I posted above. Again, none were listed as much more than speculation, but considering Cerami is both the guy who nailed the Maton signing and is the guy with the source here those names seem likely in terms of what his report was about as well 

Ok, cool. Thought it was him, but I also saw Leiter Jr mentioned. I like Fairbanks more than Leiter jr. I also am not sure he won’t be better than Keller. Relievers are strange. One good year like Keller had doesn’t mean he has another. Unless you are elite, you are a question mark, IMO. 

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Ok, cool. Thought it was him, but I also saw Leiter Jr mentioned. I like Fairbanks more than Leiter jr. I also am not sure he won’t be better than Keller. Relievers are strange. One good year like Keller had doesn’t mean he has another. Unless you are elite, you are a question mark, IMO. 

Everything under the hood from Keller last year has been better than Fairbanks the last two. He's younger as well. I wouldn't be "sure" of anything with a reliever, they're volatile. I also feel much more comfortable saying as of today, I expect Brad Keller is the better bet to be good. Him having only been a reliever for one year doesn't really factor much into this for me. 

[Bertz]

Keller is coming off of a better year but I'd guess there's not a ton of difference between him and Fairbanks going forward.  If the team chooses Fairbanks to save a few million or especially an extra year on a contract I'd be aligned.

Williams is in a completely different tier and will be paid as such.  Probably gets Tanner Scott money, while I'd be shocked if either of the other guys top $40M total.

[Rcal10]

3 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Everything under the hood from Keller last year has been better than Fairbanks the last two. He's younger as well. I wouldn't be "sure" of anything with a reliever, they're volatile. I also feel much more comfortable saying as of today, I expect Brad Keller is the better bet to be good. Him having only been a reliever for one year doesn't really factor much into this for me. 

While I am sure Jason is spot on with everything under the hood pointing to Keller being better than Fairbanks, I am not sure it matters for next year. With pen arms every year is a new hood. I have seen it way too often where people make a case for one pen arm and another does better. Fairbanks would be perfectly fine with me, and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he had a better year than Keller. If the option was Fairbanks on a 2/$20M deal or Keller on a 3/$38M I am happy with Fairbanks. Keller might get more because someone might see him as a starter.

[CubUgly]

18 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

While I am sure Jason is spot on with everything under the hood pointing to Keller being better than Fairbanks, I am not sure it matters for next year. With pen arms every year is a new hood. I have seen it way too often where people make a case for one pen arm and another does better. Fairbanks would be perfectly fine with me, and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he had a better year than Keller. If the option was Fairbanks on a 2/$20M deal or Keller on a 3/$38M I am happy with Fairbanks. Keller might get more because someone might see him as a starter.

Good points - soooo much volatility from year to year with relievers.  Who would not have wanted Tanner Scott and Yates last year based on their 2024 seasons - hell the Cubs wanted Scott enough to offer him a 4-year deal that when you get down to it was as good or better than what the Dodgers offered in practical terms. 

[Jason Ross]

18 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

While I am sure Jason is spot on with everything under the hood pointing to Keller being better than Fairbanks, I am not sure it matters for next year. With pen arms every year is a new hood. I have seen it way too often where people make a case for one pen arm and another does better. Fairbanks would be perfectly fine with me, and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he had a better year than Keller. If the option was Fairbanks on a 2/$20M deal or Keller on a 3/$38M I am happy with Fairbanks. Keller might get more because someone might see him as a starter.

Two things can be true simultaneously:

1. Relief arms are volatile due to sample size.
2. The under the hood stuff matters

Here is Brad Keller's statcast:

Here are Pete Fairbanks since he's lost two mph on his fastball:

So, sure, RP's can be random it feels, but Brad Keller's 2025 stands above anything the latter has done for two years and 100 IP. Unless there is something that Brad Keller is doing that we can't see in the savant data that would cause for concern, something medically we wouldn't know, than there isn't much of a reason to doubt that Brad Keller is anything but a very good reliever. Randomly, Pete Fairbanks could be better than Brad Keller; sure, because RP's do that. But by this light, we can make an argument for any mediocre RP being better than Keller or Fairbanks in any year - something I'm just not going to do. 

So while there is variance baked into RP's we can also make judgement calls on who is more likely to be good. And I think Keller is the better bet. Which isn't to say "don't sign Fairbanks" - I think he could be a good reliever still! And even better if you can squeeze a little velo juice out of him again. But it is to say that I'm not going to ignore all of this stuff just because RP's can be a little wonky, either. Nothing in the Keller profile suggest a collapse coming.

[Bertz]

 

 

[Jason Ross]

40 minutes ago, Bertz said:

 

 

Hard to be mad at that. That's a pretty solid deal. And if you assume he's the Kittredge replacement, you saved a little AAV.

[Neuby]

Was worried we overpaid early to jump the market but this looks like a bargain.