Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-24-25

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

Agreed, but I wonder how seriously they pursue one. They have a $6 million option on Rea. Would it be too surprising if their April/May plan was the quintet they’re currently sending out there with Wiggins and Steele as midseason reinforcements?
 

I don’t love how quickly they’d need to dip into Wicks/Assad/Brown territory (depending on which of them is still in the org) if there’s an early season injury, but come June/July, that’s a strong group.

I would be shocked if they don't bring in at least one SP. I think one of two things will happen this offseason:

1. They will resign Kyle Tucker and then they're going to kind of have too many prospects who will be blocked, they will almost assuredly be forced into making a trade and SP is the one thing they really need. So I would expect a trade for a controlled SP.

2. They don't resign Tucker. At this point the Cubs would have a ton of money to spend - even if the Cubs don't go over the LT, just to get back to 2025 spending they'll have tons of money. They'll sign a Michael King + someone. Or maybe it's a Dylan Cease. They'll get one. They almost would have to. 

I don't know who it'll be, but I think either way the Cubs will get a MORP or better.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Decent AA debut for Erian Rodríguez. Gave up 2 solo HRs.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I would be shocked if they don't bring in at least one SP. I think one of two things will happen this offseason:

1. They will resign Kyle Tucker and then they're going to kind of have too many prospects who will be blocked, they will almost assuredly be forced into making a trade and SP is the one thing they really need. So I would expect a trade for a controlled SP.

2. They don't resign Tucker. At this point the Cubs would have a ton of money to spend - even if the Cubs don't go over the LT, just to get back to 2025 spending they'll have tons of money. They'll sign a Michael King + someone. Or maybe it's a Dylan Cease. They'll get one. They almost would have to. 

I don't know who it'll be, but I think either way the Cubs will get a MORP or better.

I think the play if they re-sign Tucker is to go after a guy like Bieber or King, who are a more expensive versions of Boyd last offseason, with similar TOR potential but cheaper than a TOR would normally get on the open market due to the downside injury risk.

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

I think the play if they re-sign Tucker is to go after a guy like Bieber or King, who are a more expensive versions of Boyd last offseason, with similar TOR potential but cheaper than a TOR would normally get on the open market due to the downside injury risk.

I could see that too. But I do think at some point the team will have to look at the crew of Alcantara, Long, Caissie, Ballesteros and say "We have too many". Maybe I'm wrong, but it feels like a decision will have to be made at some point (and I think this offseason is kind of the last moment before they begin to have diminishing value returns on trades) and trading some of those prospects while also banking the money with a pre-FA SP feels a very "Cub" way to handle spending. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

18 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I could see that too. But I do think at some point the team will have to look at the crew of Alcantara, Long, Caissie, Ballesteros and say "We have too many". Maybe I'm wrong, but it feels like a decision will have to be made at some point (and I think this offseason is kind of the last moment before they begin to have diminishing value returns on trades) and trading some of those prospects while also banking the money with a pre-FA SP feels a very "Cub" way to handle spending. 

Agreed. Would love to re-sign Tucker and turn some of the AAA prospect glut into a controllable SP. This was just my thoughts on SP in free agency. I’d still go after a guy like King even if they acquire, say, Edward Cabrera.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Ángel Cepeda triple.

[Neuby]

Kepley on base 5 times tonight with another two steals.  Skip high A send him straight to Tennessee. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

14 minutes ago, Neuby said:

Kepley on base 5 times tonight with another two steals.  Skip high A send him straight to Tennessee. 

Got to think moving day is tomorrow.

Kepley and Southisene at the top of the MB lineup has to be so annoying for other A-ball pitchers. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Bertz]

43 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

Got to think moving day is tomorrow.

Kepley and Southisene at the top of the MB lineup has to be so annoying for other A-ball pitchers. 

Southisene has a .461 OBP the last two months and is somehow the less annoying of those two

[craig]

6 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Mike Soroka was an awesome reliever last year and way under played his xData this year in Washington likely due to their pathetic defense. Do you think the Chicago Cubs gave up an interesting pair of prospects for a player they don't expect on the MLB playoff roster? C'mon. Also that's a very weird list. Soroka was acquired for real capital, Eli Morgan is on the IL-60 and has been hurt all year, Nate Pearson has been awful and barely been on the MLB roster since April and Ryan Braiser is a perfectly fine, if unexceptional RH reliever. Two of those guys have 0-shot, and the other two are very likely.

The time table on Soroka sounds like it will happen sometime in September. He was out playing catch on the field a week ago and I suspect we're closer to a rehab assignment than we realize. 

thanks, Donzo and Jason!  Yeah, I hadn't been up on the news that he might be semi-close.  I admit my mental association with bad-shoulder is long-term out.  So hadn't realized he might be back already fairly soon.  In my head, I just hear "bad shoulder" and assume months plural.  Glad that may be faulty.  

We'll see!  Hope he comes back and contributes well.  That would be fun.  Any effective pitcher can make a big difference. 

Obviously coming off a bad shoulder and getting sharp quickly, that doesn't always go together.  Perhaps he'll be back and be a stud reliever, that would be fun.  But also possible that it might take a while.  There isn't a lot of time left.  

[craig]

September only adds one extra pitcher, it's not like the old days.  Barring injury, I see two spots available between Assad, Hodge, Soroka, Brasier, Wicks, etc.   

I guess in my ideal world, Assad and Hodge at their best would be my preferred two, with ideally all the existing guys staying healthy.  

But yeah, there's plenty of time for injuries to come.  And if Soroka looks good, Brown could always get optioned to open a 3rd spot, if they think Brasier or Soroka is more useful.  Also possible that Taylor Rogers could get replaced, beats me.  

 

[Donzo]

12 hours ago, craig said:

Thanks, Donzo and Jason!  Yeah, I hadn't been up on the news that he might be semi-close.  I admit my mental association with bad-shoulder is long-term out.  So hadn't realized he might be back already fairly soon.  In my head, I just hear "bad shoulder" and assume months plural.  Glad that may be faulty.  

Tomorrow he pitches off a mound. We should get an idea of his return after that.

Edited August 25, 2025 by Donzo

[craig]

18 hours ago, Bertz said:

Southisene has a .461 OBP the last two months and is somehow the less annoying of those two

Kinda crazy to have two short OBP-guys like that stacking 1-2.  We'll see as they progress, guys can get better at base-stealing.  But while Kepley has a bunch of steals, his success ratio doesn't seem that great for Myrtle-level.  May not be a prolific base-stealer in the majors?  (If he hypothetically gets there.).  southisene also seems to be cutting back on his volume of SB-attempts, guessing he's not going to be a SB-league-leader or anything in the majors.  

But yeah, I can't remember the Cubs having OBP-oriented guys like these two,  Really fun for their level.  Will be fun to see how they progress.  Seems like the Cubs haven't truly had a stereotypical leadoff guy for a while.  Would be fun if one of these guys became huge-OBP leadoff guys for the big-league team down the road. 

[craig]

23 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

I would be shocked if they don't bring in at least one SP. I think one of two things will happen this offseason:

1. They will resign Kyle Tucker and then they're going to kind of have too many prospects who will be blocked, they will almost assuredly be forced into making a trade and SP is the one thing they really need. So I would expect a trade for a controlled SP.

2. They don't resign Tucker. At this point the Cubs would have a ton of money to spend - even if the Cubs don't go over the LT, just to get back to 2025 spending they'll have tons of money. They'll sign a Michael King + someone. Or maybe it's a Dylan Cease. They'll get one. They almost would have to. 

I don't know who it'll be, but I think either way the Cubs will get a MORP or better.

Interesting thoughts, Jason.  Not sure I track them well.  Hard to guess how far over lux they're willing to go. 

1. My best guess is that they'll jump lux, but stay under first surcharge.  That might allow maybe $30-40 bump in payroll?  
2. My guess is that they WILL extend Tucker.  Tucker, Keller, Thielbar; maybe Castro; I'm thinking that would shoot well beyond lux, and might not leave space for a pitcher in the Thielbar/Imanaga/Boyd price range or above?? 
3. Cubs have little built-in programmed lux raises for next year.  Steele and Shota, that's basically it.  Coming off will be Turner/Pressly/Brasier/Bellinger money, more than enough to cover the programmed raises, but not that hugely much free space left over?  Will be in good shape, but not that little.
4. *IF* you don't re-sign Tucker, I'm guessing they'd still spend much of the Tucker money towards some short-term vet or other to replace him.  Bellinger?  castro?  Don't think they'd just commit all-in to Caissie/Kevin/Triantos as OFers.  

[Rcal10]

49 minutes ago, craig said:

Interesting thoughts, Jason.  Not sure I track them well.  Hard to guess how far over lux they're willing to go. 

1. My best guess is that they'll jump lux, but stay under first surcharge.  That might allow maybe $30-40 bump in payroll?  
2. My guess is that they WILL extend Tucker.  Tucker, Keller, Thielbar; maybe Castro; I'm thinking that would shoot well beyond lux, and might not leave space for a pitcher in the Thielbar/Imanaga/Boyd price range or above?? 
3. Cubs have little built-in programmed lux raises for next year.  Steele and Shota, that's basically it.  Coming off will be Turner/Pressly/Brasier/Bellinger money, more than enough to cover the programmed raises, but not that hugely much free space left over?  Will be in good shape, but not that little.
4. *IF* you don't re-sign Tucker, I'm guessing they'd still spend much of the Tucker money towards some short-term vet or other to replace him.  Bellinger?  castro?  Don't think they'd just commit all-in to Caissie/Kevin/Triantos as OFers.  

I think if they sign Tucker someone who makes some money will go. I know Happ and Suzuki have NTC, so might be tough. But beteeen them and maybe Taillon someone will go. Then I think they will trade for a controlled pitcher using some of the blocked minor league talent. That pitcher might still be arbitration eligible and not cost that much. I don’t think it is a reach to think they can sign Tucker and still make a trade for at least a MOR arm. Low end for that, to me would be Keller. (Personally I think it will be Cabrera) He would basically replace Taillon. I think the trade for a pitcher is way more likely than signing one. It is also the easier part of the plan to sign Tucker and trade for a pitcher. 

[craig]

23 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

I could see that too. But I do think at some point the team will have to look at the crew of Alcantara, Long, Caissie, Ballesteros and say "We have too many". Maybe I'm wrong, but it feels like a decision will have to be made at some point (and I think this offseason is kind of the last moment before they begin to have diminishing value returns on trades) and trading some of those prospects while also banking the money with a pre-FA SP feels a very "Cub" way to handle spending. 

This will be super interesting for sure.  I think they've got a chance to augment the roster via trade.  Maybe yes.  Flip is that this was kinda the trade-deadline logic and it didn't happen then.  The logic last winter, and it didn't happen then either.  Maybe it won't winter either?  Various thoughts:

1. Every trade is case-by-case. How much does Hoyer value the guys he's trading; how much the guy he's acquiring.  Last winter, he explored a lot, but ended up NOT finding a deal where the value worked.  This summer he explored a LOT, but other than small-level deals, the case-by-case values never quite worked.  Who knows this winter?  
2. Caissie is not blocked.  Happ and Suzuki will be expiring.  Hoyer believes it takes time for a hitter to kinda figure things out.  Might make ideal sense to keep Caissie, use 2026 as a depth-year, figure-it-out year?  Then let Happ or Suzuki (or both) walk after 26 to create a bunch of budget space for whatever is needed then?  (Part of Theo's problem was that Almora and Underwood etc. never really filled in cheap; suddenly all of the young guys were arbing up but there were no good cheap young guys to replace expiring vets as Fowler, Zobrist, Arrieta were leaving.  Caissie might not really be blocked at all.  Having him ready to be a primary starter by 2027 might be very ideal, perfect.  
3. Ditto Moises.  Maybe hints his defense has been progressing?  *IF* they believe he can be a share-time guy, having Kelly expiring isn't really blocking him.  At all.  Timing might be perfect.
4. This winter will be closer to lockout.  Might not make great sense to burn Caissie or Moises for a pre-FA SP who might lose a hunk of their limited Cub-controlled time to the lockout?  
5. Alcantara, not sure on "diminishing returns" bit.  Very possible; if he doesn't progress this last month, and doesn't hit better next year, that will be variably true.  But, his trade value hasn't really seemed that great yet last winter or this summer.  It might get even worse, but has it ever really been that large?  Kevin-for-Cabrera, Kevin-for-Gore, Kevin-for-Suarez, Kevin-for-Keller, teams haven't liked him enough to do 1-for-1's thus far.  Will they this winter?  Hopefully yes, that would be great.  But *IF* you hypothetically don't get a serious buyer offering serious value for him, perhaps keep him again? In post-Happ world he might be a good depth/platoon outfielder for us?  Pltoon for Caissie some?  Maybe platoon some for PCA if PCA's issues with certain lefties get more established as hopeless?  Or perhaps if Kevin does have a breakout next summer, and has 25 HR and OPS'ing .920 next July, then by next July he'll look like a really good ready-now starter; rather than value-diminished, it will be value-enhanced, and next year you'd be able to get Cabrera/Gore/Keller/Suarez type guys, maybe better, with Kevin as the primary ready-now piece?  
6. Long:  Hard to guess.  Don't imagine even this winter that he's going to be the primary guy in Cabrera/Gore/Keller/Suarez type trades.  Maybe if you keep him, and by next July he's matching and further improving this year's numbers, but with 25 HR's, and his value will continue to escalate?  at that point, he'll look established as a ready-right-now starter?  Or, maybe he'll improve his platoon splits, and look better as a depth/Busch-platoon guy, basically take Turner's role plus much more?  
7. Depth:  Last year, Dansby and Hoerner played with fairly limiting injures, with the option being Miles Mastrubuoni.  Counsell figuress those guys at 80% were still better than Mastrobuoni.  This year Happ got hurt and came back kinda fast; tucker got injured and played through it, and ended up struggling for some length.  The options were Berti and Brujan, playing vets at 70% still better than going with Brujan every day, right?  But what if you've got a stock of Caissie/Kevin/Triantos/Long/Moises guys available?  Maybe you establish a new team culture:  don't play hurt, that hurts the team.  We've got some talented, energetic young depth guys, take your IL, get healthy, and come back healthy.  Don't 70%-your-way through and stay 70% for months.  
8. Rotation:  Horton-Boyd-Imanaga-Taillon-Rea-Assad-Brown-Steele-Wiggins.  Hoyer may not see the rotation as being that shallow entering next year?  If he's spending hard on Tucker, and Keller, and spreading some around on Thielbar and maybe Castro, he may not be committing all that heavily to rotation?  Either in FA or in trade?  May want to hold his trade cards for unpredictable situations yet to come?  Maybe spending no higher than the Boyd-type range, perhaps not even much higher than Rea?  
9. I wonder, if Soroka does come back and seems healthy and like a hard-worker good-chemistry guy, whether Soroka himself might still end up getting extended on a low-commitment depth contract?  

 

[CubinNY]

On 8/24/2025 at 4:11 PM, Tryptamine said:

I'm really stuck on how I fee about Balleteros right now. I have very little doubt that he wont be an above average MLB hitters, but he's much more likely to be a DH than a catcher at this point and while I think he'll hit for good average, have a good obp, I don't know if there's enough power currently to say he's more than a 20-25 HR bat. I kind of see his 90th percentile outcome as like a .275/.360/.450 guy which is really nice and all, but it's not special enough that I hesitate to give him up for a Ryan or a Gore. 

I'd love if they could keep him in the states and put him on a Schwaber nutrition program with a trainer all offseason. He has a rare talent that bodes well for his success in MLB.  He could be a batting champion with an .800ish SLG .400+ OBP in a good year. The picture is from Schwaber's rookie season. The body is similar. The 2nd is just for comparison sake. 

Edited August 26, 2025 by CubinNY

[Bertz]

14 hours ago, craig said:

• Rotation:  Horton-Boyd-Imanaga-Taillon-Rea-Assad-Brown-Steele-Wiggins.  Hoyer may not see the rotation as being that shallow entering next year?  If he's spending hard on Tucker, and Keller, and spreading some around on Thielbar and maybe Castro, he may not be committing all that heavily to rotation?  Either in FA or in trade?  May want to hold his trade cards for unpredictable situations yet to come?  Maybe spending no higher than the Boyd-type range, perhaps not even much higher than Rea?  
• I wonder, if Soroka does come back and seems healthy and like a hard-worker good-chemistry guy, whether Soroka himself might still end up getting extended on a low-commitment depth contract?  

I tend to think like Jason that a SP of substance is coming this winter, via FA if we lose Tucker or via trade if we hold onto him.

That said I do wonder if you're right about Soroka sticking around as a second signing.  As much as Rea has exceeded my expectations this year, I'd still love to swap in Soroka in place of him over the winter.  With Steele due back, a big fish presumably also coming in the door, and the IP concerns around Boyd/Horton/Brown much less acute, there's hopefully less of a need for bulk innings next year.  I certainly don't think the rotation is in a place where we can jettison a bunch of depth, but I'd happily swap Rea's rubber arm for a different swing pitcher that I feel better about on a per inning basis.

[craig]

Yeah, will be interesting.  My guess is that they do what it takes to extend Tucker, and that's the main thing.  Run it back.  If there's a good opportunity at value they like, perhaps tinker with rotation.  But not guessing they're going to spend big on a rotation pitcher.  *IF* Tucker leaves, obviously they're going to want to do something of substance either in RF or pitcher or both.