2025 MLB Draft Day 2 Thread: Chicago Cubs Draft on North Side Baseball

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, craig said:

Wow, no kidding do I like that!  A super-power guy with superb contract rates?  Boy, do I ever love that!

Dumb Q, from a non-super-saber-smart boy.  What kind of whiff-rates are typical on fastballs?  I'd have had zero context for whether that was impossible or routine.  

Looks like this year the 3 lowest whiff rates on fastballs in MLB are Luis Arraez (3.6%), Nico Hoerner (5%), and Steven Kwan (6.4%).  So 4% does seem like a tough but not impossible bar to clear.  Which is encouraging because if the best MLBer were at like 12% it would be so out of whack as to seem like a useless data point.

I don't know what data looks like for amateurs, but looks like the MLB average is 19.5%, AAA average is 21.6%, and Florida State League (the only A ball league with public Statcast) is 23%.  So a teenager being that locked in on fastballs seems especially encouraging.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

3 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

 

[craig]

Bertz, thanks much for that fastball-whiff data.  Yeah, super exciting if Hartshorn is just a gifted contacted hitter, with big power 2nd.  The "hitter" part is always the big essential for any power hitter.  Obviously contact on fastballs is one thing, contact on movement is different, so we'll see.  But fun to dream.  

Cal, thanks for note on Jerzembeck.  Yeah, who knows if he'll ever be healthy; if so when; and how much velo-improvement and pitching development relative to freshman year is possible and ahead for him.  But man, in the unlikely event that  you get the prospect he was back then, with the hypothetical that neither the surgeries nor the time lost compromise his stuff or his development, he could be a really intriguing prospect.  We shall see!

[We Got The Whole 9]

9 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

[Donzo]

On 7/14/2025 at 1:57 PM, CaliforniaRaisin said:

8th round: RHP Jake Knapp, UNC (senior)

Not ranked by Pipeline:

Ranked 328th by BA:

 

I think this guy is intriguing; interesting story. He kinda sticks out to me from the other college SRs. Six years in college.

Didn't play baseball his first year (didn't make the team), so his eligibility clock starts his 2nd year, when he played in CC for two years. 4th yr at NC, 5th yr TJS and 6th yr he's the ACC pitcher of the year hitting 97 mph. He's also the size of DE.

[CubinNY]

On 7/16/2025 at 10:11 PM, Bertz said:

Looks like this year the 3 lowest whiff rates on fastballs in MLB are Luis Arraez (3.6%), Nico Hoerner (5%), and Steven Kwan (6.4%).  So 4% does seem like a tough but not impossible bar to clear.  Which is encouraging because if the best MLBer were at like 12% it would be so out of whack as to seem like a useless data point.

I don't know what data looks like for amateurs, but looks like the MLB average is 19.5%, AAA average is 21.6%, and Florida State League (the only A ball league with public Statcast) is 23%.  So a teenager being that locked in on fastballs seems especially encouraging.

Exactly. That is the first test when they get to MLB. So many prospects never pass. He'll still have to prove he can catch up to big boy gas, but we know he can do it at the 99th percentile for his age/competition. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/unheralded-statcast-standouts-from-all-30-mlb-draft-classes-in-2025/

Quote

Chicago Cubs

Nate Williams, RHP, 13th Round

What makes him interesting: A fastball with solid ride and velocity, and a curveball with a lot of depth. Wiliams also struck out 51 batters in 27 innings this season at Mississippi State, over 45% of the batters he faced.

What he needs to improve: Williams will likely need to add more ride to his fastball, as well as a changeup, while developing the gyro slider some more. There’s potential here for a back-end starter if everything breaks right.

Noah Edders, RHP, 15th Round

What makes him interesting: A high-vert fastball averaging 19 inches of IVB. I’m leaving the arsenal chart out here as it’s a little messy and confusing.

What he needs to improve: Velocity. Edders currently sits 91-92, without any quality secondary pitches.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]