Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 6-4-25

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scheduled Games (Central Time):

Iowa at Omaha (game one), 1:05 pm
Iowa at Omaha (game two), 7:05 pm
Knoxville vs. Chattanooga, 6:00 pm
South Bend vs. Great Lakes, 6:05 pm
Myrtle Beach at Kannapolis, 6:00 pm

The ACL and DSL teams have the day off

Probable Starting Pitchers:

Iowa (game one); RHP Connor Noland (49.2 IP, 4.17 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 48 K, 16 BB)
Iowa (game two): RHP Kenta Maeda (not posting the stats out of mercy)
Knoxville: RHP Grant Kipp (41.1 IP, 2.83 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 46 K, 18 BB)
South Bend: RHP Tyler Schlaffer (33.1 IP, 6.75 ERA, 5.52 FIP, 33 K, 17 BB)
Myrtle Beach: RHP Will Frisch (27.2 IP, 6.18 ERA, 4.96 FIP, 32 K, 25 BB)

[Bertz]

6 shutout innings from Connor Noland.  I really think if we needed him to he could make a couple starts and hold his own.

[Bertz]

Up to 19% CS.  Hardly a Molina out there but under the new rules that's adequate.

[allen6510w]

26 minutes ago, Bertz said:

6 shutout innings from Connor Noland.  I really think if we needed him to he could make a couple starts and hold his own.

Isn't he one of those guys that is viewed as having nothing left to work on in the minors but insufficient stuff to succeed at the next level?  I'm sure he'd love to prove that idea wrong.

 

Who knows maybe he and Jaxon could be teammates again as ML starters this time. 

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, allen6510w said:

Isn't he one of those guys that is viewed as having nothing left to work on in the minors but insufficient stuff to succeed at the next level?  I'm sure he'd love to prove that idea wrong.

 

Who knows maybe he and Jaxon could be teammates again as ML starters this time. 

He hasn't been toiling at Iowa long enough for that, but it's not way far off.  I think too the stuff get underrated because of the velocity, but he's got a Justin Steele type of deal going on where his fastball is really more of a cutter.  And 89-91 on a cutter isn't actually *that* light in the velo department.

But good command, good groundball rates, and okay swing and miss?  That'll play for a back end of the rotation arm 

[craig]

 

Quote

Up to 19% CS.  Hardly a Molina out there but under the new rules that's adequate.

Thanks for the info.  That's helpful context, and encouraging.  Reese McGuire was 4/19, 17%, so Mo is no worse.

If opponents perceive a guy as being hapless they sometimes will attempt lots more steals.  But Mo's 7CS/30SB, that's in 30 games.  So teams are only averaging 1.0 SB/per game, So the modest attempts-volume also supports the "not-that-bad" perspective, I think? 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

South Bend PPD

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Grant Kipp:

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1 hour ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Grant Kipp:

 

Final line on 82 pitches:

 

[JBears79]

21 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Final line on 82 pitches:

 

Damn. Thats insanely efficient.

[craig]

Is Kipp a big-league prospect?  Or not really?  His numbers look pretty good.    Enough fastball to use it as a offspeed pitch?  

[CaliforniaRaisin]

23 minutes ago, craig said:

Is Kipp a big-league prospect?  Or not really?  His numbers look pretty good.    Enough fastball to use it as a offspeed pitch?  

Yes, he is a big league prospect. His stuff has ticked up this year.

Bryan Smith compared his uptick this season to the uptick Javier Assad had in the upper minors that turned him into a real prospect and a big leaguer.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Suddenly we are teeming with interesting arms lol

[CubinNY]

10 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Final line on 82 pitches:

 

Hell yes. 

[Bertz]

This makes what, the 4th or 5th double digit K game on the farm this year?  I honestly think we might have had 0 last year, and the year before that a few from Brown but nobody else.

Some of it is the opportunity of working deeper into games (10 of 22 is a lot easier than 10 of 18), but also Zombro definitely seems to be the real deal.

[craig]

7 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Suddenly we are teeming with interesting arms lol

So, there's Wiggins in one class.  

Gallagher, Birdsell, Sanders.  Kipp.  Noland.  McCollough exists, too.  How would you rank those guys?  Obviously with Birdsell and McCollough, if they resume pitching, hard to guess how the injuries might impact delivery/stuff/location. 

Mule from the HS group.  Florentino from the Latin pipeline?  

 

 

[Bertz]

9 minutes ago, craig said:

So, there's Wiggins in one class.  

Gallagher, Birdsell, Sanders.  Kipp.  Noland.  McCollough exists, too.  How would you rank those guys?  Obviously with Birdsell and McCollough, if they resume pitching, hard to guess how the injuries might impact delivery/stuff/location. 

Mule from the HS group.  Florentino from the Latin pipeline?  

 

 

If we assume Birdsell/McCollough come back no worse for the wear, I think it's something like this for the upper level arms:

Wiggins

<gap>

Birdsell

<gap>

Sanders

Gallagher

McCollough 

<gap>

Kipp

Noland

Then for the further away guys the ones of note are Mule, Erian Rodriguez, and I guess Florentino.  I don't know much about him but a double digit K game is enough to throw you on the radar. They're not really apples to apples with the guys above but I'd probably squeeze them into the gap between McCollough and Kipp?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

46 minutes ago, Bertz said:

If we assume Birdsell/McCollough come back no worse for the wear, I think it's something like this for the upper level arms:

Wiggins

<gap>

Birdsell

<gap>

Sanders

Gallagher

McCollough 

<gap>

Kipp

Noland

Then for the further away guys the ones of note are Mule, Erian Rodriguez, and I guess Florentino.  I don't know much about him but a double digit K game is enough to throw you on the radar. They're not really apples to apples with the guys above but I'd probably squeeze them into the gap between McCollough and Kipp?

Wheat probably belong with Mulé and Rodríguez though all 3 probably have ceilings as big league relievers.

Gray probably belongs on the list amidst the injured group since he’s throwing and didn’t have surgery.

I still think starting pitching is one of the weaker parts of the farm (catcher is by far the weakest).

[craig]

Thanks, Cal, that's really helpful.  92-95 with a low arm slot seems fine for a guy who's going to live on his breaking pitches. 

I looked up earlier Bryan Smith note on Kipp back in April, he wrote:  "There’s a lot of Colin Rea in what Kipp is showing out there, if you want an idea of the potential we’re talking about. He can support heavy breaking ball usage, probably able to get away with only 30-40% fastballs and not have it hurt him."

[Outshined_One]

9 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Suddenly we are teeming with interesting arms lol

The problem to me is the "interesting" part of that statement.  The only healthy SP we have firing bullets at the moment is Wiggins, while it seems like the remainder of the guys who are successfully pitching are RHPs who work in the low 90s and seem to rely a lot on arm angles and deception.

Don't get me wrong, it's great that these guys are bolstering the depth in this system, but when the 90th percentile outcome for your career is Colin Rea, well, yeah.

[We Got The Whole 9]

41 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

The problem to me is the "interesting" part of that statement.  The only healthy SP we have firing bullets at the moment is Wiggins, while it seems like the remainder of the guys who are successfully pitching are RHPs who work in the low 90s and seem to rely a lot on arm angles and deception.

Don't get me wrong, it's great that these guys are bolstering the depth in this system, but when the 90th percentile outcome for your career is Colin Rea, well, yeah.

I'd be ok with kind of a future Seattle rotation. Let's see what kind of velocity gains they make over time. 

[craig]

I feel kinda conflicted.  Is it great?  Obviously no.  But my expectations were so low, that I'm pleasantly surprised.  In January, I probably saw Horton, Wiggins, and Birdsell as pretty much the only pitching-prospects of any relevance or ceiling.  And had lots of worries for Horton, and for will-he-be-wildman Wiggins.  So I think the Horton-Wiggins progress has been very nice.  

Birdsell injured, Wicks a bust, those are disappointments, yes.  But having Gallagher, Sanders, and Kipp being even interesting, those are some very pleasant unexpected surprises, for me.  

[Rcal10]

32 minutes ago, craig said:

I feel kinda conflicted.  Is it great?  Obviously no.  But my expectations were so low, that I'm pleasantly surprised.  In January, I probably saw Horton, Wiggins, and Birdsell as pretty much the only pitching-prospects of any relevance or ceiling.  And had lots of worries for Horton, and for will-he-be-wildman Wiggins.  So I think the Horton-Wiggins progress has been very nice.  

Birdsell injured, Wicks a bust, those are disappointments, yes.  But having Gallagher, Sanders, and Kipp being even interesting, those are some very pleasant unexpected surprises, for me.  

Wicks’ year has been a bust. I am not ready to call him a bust, just yet.