Chicago Cubs 2025 Offseason Top-20 Prospects: No. 3, Owen Caissie

[Jason Ross]

The Cubs acquired Owen Caissie a main piece in the Yu Darvish trade in what feels like ages ago. In reality, the big-bodied outfielder still hasn't seen his 23rd birthday and has rocketed through the system. On the doorstep of making his MLB debut, what will 2025 bring for the Canadian?

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Today we continue our review of the Top 20 Chicago Cubs prospects (as voted on by the readers of NSBB). At number 3 we find a powerful Canadian outfielder who is on the cusp of the big leagues.

Before you read about Owen Caissie, don't miss our previous Top 20 Cubs Prospect articles including our look at some honorable mentions, the Cubs' Top Prospects #20-16 and the Top Prospects #15-11. 
#20 - Pedro Ramirez, INF
#19 - Luis Vazquez, INF
#18 - Michael Arias, RP
#17 - Alfonsin Rosario - OF
#16 - Drew Gray, SP
#15 - Jonathon Long, 1B
#14 - Fernando Cruz, SS
#13 - Derniche Valdez, SS
#12 - Alexander Canario, OF
#11 - Cristian Hernandez, SS
#10 - Brandon Birdsell, SP
#9 - Jaxon Wiggins, SP
#8 - Jefferson Rojas
#7 - James Triantos 
#6 - Cam Smith
#5 - Kevin Alcantara, OF
#4 - Moises Ballesteros, C/1B/DH
#3 - Owen Caissie, OF

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2024 Season Review - Owen Caissie - RF/1B/DH
Owen Caissie had a season that we can effectively split in two, and both showed some positives and some negatives. Caissie, who earned a promotion to Triple-A Iowa at the start of the 2024 season, had displayed improved contact rates Double-A by the end of the 2023 season. That trend seemingly continued at the start of his new campaign, While not an eye-popping number, the slugger hovered around the 27% K% range for much of the first half of the 2024 season. For someone who will walk a lot, and should provide power, these numbers fall into the "not great, but passable" range. At the same time, his contact rates were in the low 70's, which were slightly below league average, but fit into that same "passable" category. 

However, when looking at his power numbers, both the raw counting numbers and rate stats, they fell short of expectations. As always, it is important to put things into some context. Caissie was much younger than the International League's average, starting his season at the ripe age of 21. Regardless, fans expected more than a .443 Slugging Percentage and an Isolated Power of .164. He hit just eight home runs through his first 76 games. One thing Caissie has always needed to work more on was pulling the ball more, and gaining more lift. But remember, this is a tale of two seasons...

After the MiLB all-star break, a new Owen Caissie came to play, this time, he showed off a much improved power approach. Over his last 51 games, Caissie managed to hit 11 home runs, increased his ISO to .240, and his SLG ballooned to .516. He accomplished this in two ways - first, he greatly improved his pull rate, and secondly, greatly improved his lift - two things we've really been waiting for him to do. This is a clear approach and swing difference and it paid off in the power department.

Sure, we wish it was all roses and peaches, but that isn't realistic. Player development is rarely linear. Caissie struggled a bit more in the second half of the season. First, he had an increase in strike outs. Over the last 51 games his K% crept over the 29% range and was over 30% his final 33 games. Those rates are similar to what we saw in his younger days. Secondly, his contact rate dropped into the mid 60's, which is a 4% reduction. Clearly his new damage approach came coupled with an addition of the strikeouts and less contact. The hope is that as the approach matures further that these lesson again, but it is also probably noteworthy that when you sell out for power and damage, these are usually apart of the territory. 

Defensively, there was more real progress made in his ability in the outfield. Reports on his routes and athleticism in RF make it more and more likely that in the interim, he's a capable outfield he can limit advancing runners even though he's never going to be the most fleet-of-foot. 

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Season Outlook and Scouting Report - ETA: Summer 2025
If you've been paying attention to prospect rankings, you'd be remiss if you didn't notice his name sliding down them a bit. There has been more and one evaluator who has pointed out that the power production hasn't matched the body type yet, and the hit-tool is never going to wow anyone from a contact point of view., I'd caution you to pause on worrying about them, because I think there's equal parts prospect fatigue and underlying things that make these a bit unfair. 

The big-bodied outfielder has been around a handful of years and has always remained very underage for his level, being among the absolute youngest hitters wherever he's gone. This will obviously add context at times to his numbers; being as large as Caissie makes you forget that he's so young for his level and learning how to harness that can take time. It creates a bit of a fatigue as his time in the minors wears on a bit - he's no longer new and shiny and especially being so young, it means he's needed more time than say, Matt Shaw. But that doesn't mean progress isn't evident and we saw that with his approach and swing changes in the second half.

In a vacuum, Owen Caissie represents a different breed of prospect than the Cubs have had in a while - someone who falls more into the "masher" mold than the others. He's power over hit, and with that strikeouts will happen. Despite those things, the left handed hitter has not shown concerns in being a platoon-type, and has made progress defensively.

I don't see a simple DH or first base only type here (at least in the interim, let's call it, the next two to five years). I'd like to (and expect him) to see some time at 1b with the loss of Matt Mervis, as any Busch injury will almost require either one of Caissie or Ballesteros to be called up and thrust into duty. With the additional pull rates, and added power, I'd be careful if I was sitting under the screen in right field...and watch out for ricochets ser. His legitimate 60 grade arm will help there as well, a sometime this summer.

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[Bertz]

We had a Caissie convo as few weeks ago, but I generally think he has been around so long prospect fatigue has set in and he gets credit for less than the sum of his parts in some places.  I think the main place that manifests is that I don't think he gets proper credit for his age relative to league.  Like if he had a 25% strikeout and a .250 ISO as someone still young for AA is Caissie a consensus top 30 prospect like Shaw?

I want Caissie's focus to start the year on defensive versatility.  He should be playing 1B, he should be DHing (which will uperficially hurt his offense).  The idea should be that he is the callup and direct 1:1 replacement when any of Happ, Tucker, Suzuki, or Busch hit the IL.  And at some point mid year Caissie should probably be up and filling in across those spots even if everyone's healthy.

[craig]

Fascinated to see how he does this year.  Not super confident, given the K's and the contact challenges.  

But I sometimes when guys are constantly promoted, I think repeating a level can be a really good thing.  Opportunity to step forward.  Opportunity to show he's better now than last year.  Did he learn some things and make some adjustments last year?  Perhaps they'll click and further lock in this year, and the power and pull and lift will become more consistent, and the slumps will be briefer.  

Like a lot of power guys, he needs to get to the power.  If your prospect status depends on power, you want to hit a lot of HR's.  Will he hit enough?  No idea.  But there's a chance, and *IF* he can show that he's taken another step forward, and can emerge as a probably solid starting player, or platoon guy, that would be really nice.  Tucker will probably be a one-and-done; if so, Caissie might have a window of opportunity.  And if Tucker gets extended, but Caissie does have an impressive season, his trade value might jump, and perhaps he could be the lead piece for a quality player.  

Just hoping to see the HR levels and HR/K ratio improve significantly, and have him look like he's ready to be a good starting big-leaguer.  

[Transmogrified Tiger]

12 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’m going to push back some on Caissie as overwhelmingly/obviously power over hit esp at this stage. I get the mix - mostly his Ks, size, and corner position - of why he is tabbed that way, but lets not lose that he’s put up strong BAs and OBPs in the upper minor plus throughout at quality ages, takes his walks, and actually cut his Ks 3% moving from AA to AAA at 21. Keep in mind that this is a dude who was drafted out of horsefeathers Canada at 17 during the meat of the pandemic. He’s generally been a little young for the level including a full upper minors season at 20. Guy’s maybe one more MiLB breakout away from being an all arounder 

*Nowadays you probably need raw power to hit. As Longenhagen and McDaniel pointed out: the gap btw a MiLB and MLB player, maybe more than ever, is  strength. Caissie’s raw strength and physicality is prob key in why he’s come along so well 

 

I would square this by saying that Caissie's batting average is more a reflection of his contact quality when he makes contact than his ability to consistently make contact.  He ran a 70% contact rate at AAA, at the major league level that contact rate is very rare to be associated with a strong batting average.  Throw in that you would expect that to drop further at the MLB level and the optimistic version of that profile is more like Jake Burger unless there are noticeable changes.  Still a worthwhile player, but unmistakably power over hit.

[Jason Ross]

15 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I would square this by saying that Caissie's batting average is more a reflection of his contact quality when he makes contact than his ability to consistently make contact.  He ran a 70% contact rate at AAA, at the major league level that contact rate is very rare to be associated with a strong batting average.  Throw in that you would expect that to drop further at the MLB level and the optimistic version of that profile is more like Jake Burger unless there are noticeable changes.  Still a worthwhile player, but unmistakably power over hit.

Burger's a good comp in most areas, I think. I'm not entirely certain you meant it as a 1:1, so this is less at you, but more of expounding - where Caissie has an advantage, it's in that Burger's never been much of a walk threat. He's run walk% in the single digits most of his minor league career. And Caissie has managed to do things at a much younger age - Burger was in Double-A at age 26. 

So with that said, if the Cubs can get Burger's power/contact rate with Caissie's walk rate...you're probably looking at like a Pete Alonso type of an outcome last season (though probably a few extra K's) of something around his slash. .240/.329/.459, an ISO of 219 and a wRC+ of 122. Still have things that need to come together there - Caissie would still need to develop and show he can hit MLB pitching, but that feels like a realistic outcome if he can keep the K's somewhat in line, use the improved power swing, and walk more than Burger.

[craig]

yeah, I agree Tom.  This is always the thing with prospects.  Yes, we know what they did last year, and before.  But will they get better, and if so by how much, and how quickly?  I never know in advance.  That's why I'm so curious to see what this year will mean for Caissie.  

I often kinda like it when a guy finally repeats a level.  When it's the same level, you can easily see if he's improved or not.  Caissie's goign to have the shot to prove that 2025 Caissie is better than 2024 Caissie.  

A note on batting average:  every HR is a hit.  Caissie's had some uncommonly good BABIP's in past.  All quality of hard contract?  Or some luck?  I don't know.  One of the best ways to get around the "could be luck" factor is to just bash more HR's.  Which tends to help walk-rates, too. 

Not sure if it's possible, we'll see.  But seems to me the most straightforward way for Caissie to strengthen his average, his slugging, his walk-rate, his OBP, his prospect status, everything offense, is to be able to whack more balls over the fence.  

For a 500-PA guy, an extra 10 HR's is worth 100 OPS points.  20 points in batting average/OBP, 80 points in slugging.  Caissie hit 19 HR last year, would like him on pace to hit 30 this season.  Ideally without wrecking his K-rate or walk rate or BABIP rates.  

[Bertz]

FWIW ZiPS sees Caissie running BABIPs in the .340s and .350s the next few years.

Low O-contact rates and plus power are generally a good combo for a sustainably high BABIP.

[craig]

11 hours ago, Bertz said:

FWIW ZiPS sees Caissie running BABIPs in the .340s and .350s the next few years.

Low O-contact rates and plus power are generally a good combo for a sustainably high BABIP.

Agree.  He's .385 career BABIP in minors.  .375 and .405 these last two seasons. 

https://www.milb.com/player/owen-caissie-683357