Chicago Cubs 2025 Offseason Top-20 Prospects: No. 3, Owen Caissie

We had a Caissie convo as few weeks ago, but I generally think he has been around so long prospect fatigue has set in and he gets credit for less than the sum of his parts in some places.  I think the main place that manifests is that I don't think he gets proper credit for his age relative to league.  Like if he had a 25% strikeout and a .250 ISO as someone still young for AA is Caissie a consensus top 30 prospect like Shaw?

I want Caissie's focus to start the year on defensive versatility.  He should be playing 1B, he should be DHing (which will uperficially hurt his offense).  The idea should be that he is the callup and direct 1:1 replacement when any of Happ, Tucker, Suzuki, or Busch hit the IL.  And at some point mid year Caissie should probably be up and filling in across those spots even if everyone's healthy.

Fascinated to see how he does this year.  Not super confident, given the K's and the contact challenges.  

But I sometimes when guys are constantly promoted, I think repeating a level can be a really good thing.  Opportunity to step forward.  Opportunity to show he's better now than last year.  Did he learn some things and make some adjustments last year?  Perhaps they'll click and further lock in this year, and the power and pull and lift will become more consistent, and the slumps will be briefer.  

Like a lot of power guys, he needs to get to the power.  If your prospect status depends on power, you want to hit a lot of HR's.  Will he hit enough?  No idea.  But there's a chance, and *IF* he can show that he's taken another step forward, and can emerge as a probably solid starting player, or platoon guy, that would be really nice.  Tucker will probably be a one-and-done; if so, Caissie might have a window of opportunity.  And if Tucker gets extended, but Caissie does have an impressive season, his trade value might jump, and perhaps he could be the lead piece for a quality player.  

Just hoping to see the HR levels and HR/K ratio improve significantly, and have him look like he's ready to be a good starting big-leaguer.  

12 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’m going to push back some on Caissie as overwhelmingly/obviously power over hit esp at this stage. I get the mix - mostly his Ks, size, and corner position - of why he is tabbed that way, but lets not lose that he’s put up strong BAs and OBPs in the upper minor plus throughout at quality ages, takes his walks, and actually cut his Ks 3% moving from AA to AAA at 21. Keep in mind that this is a dude who was drafted out of horsefeathers Canada at 17 during the meat of the pandemic. He’s generally been a little young for the level including a full upper minors season at 20. Guy’s maybe one more MiLB breakout away from being an all arounder 

*Nowadays you probably need raw power to hit. As Longenhagen and McDaniel pointed out: the gap btw a MiLB and MLB player, maybe more than ever, is  strength. Caissie’s raw strength and physicality is prob key in why he’s come along so well 

 

I would square this by saying that Caissie's batting average is more a reflection of his contact quality when he makes contact than his ability to consistently make contact.  He ran a 70% contact rate at AAA, at the major league level that contact rate is very rare to be associated with a strong batting average.  Throw in that you would expect that to drop further at the MLB level and the optimistic version of that profile is more like Jake Burger unless there are noticeable changes.  Still a worthwhile player, but unmistakably power over hit.

15 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I would square this by saying that Caissie's batting average is more a reflection of his contact quality when he makes contact than his ability to consistently make contact.  He ran a 70% contact rate at AAA, at the major league level that contact rate is very rare to be associated with a strong batting average.  Throw in that you would expect that to drop further at the MLB level and the optimistic version of that profile is more like Jake Burger unless there are noticeable changes.  Still a worthwhile player, but unmistakably power over hit.

Burger's a good comp in most areas, I think. I'm not entirely certain you meant it as a 1:1, so this is less at you, but more of expounding - where Caissie has an advantage, it's in that Burger's never been much of a walk threat. He's run walk% in the single digits most of his minor league career. And Caissie has managed to do things at a much younger age - Burger was in Double-A at age 26. 

So with that said, if the Cubs can get Burger's power/contact rate with Caissie's walk rate...you're probably looking at like a Pete Alonso type of an outcome last season (though probably a few extra K's) of something around his slash. .240/.329/.459, an ISO of 219 and a wRC+ of 122. Still have things that need to come together there - Caissie would still need to develop and show he can hit MLB pitching, but that feels like a realistic outcome if he can keep the K's somewhat in line, use the improved power swing, and walk more than Burger.

yeah, I agree Tom.  This is always the thing with prospects.  Yes, we know what they did last year, and before.  But will they get better, and if so by how much, and how quickly?  I never know in advance.  That's why I'm so curious to see what this year will mean for Caissie.  

I often kinda like it when a guy finally repeats a level.  When it's the same level, you can easily see if he's improved or not.  Caissie's goign to have the shot to prove that 2025 Caissie is better than 2024 Caissie.  

A note on batting average:  every HR is a hit.  Caissie's had some uncommonly good BABIP's in past.  All quality of hard contract?  Or some luck?  I don't know.  One of the best ways to get around the "could be luck" factor is to just bash more HR's.  Which tends to help walk-rates, too. 

Not sure if it's possible, we'll see.  But seems to me the most straightforward way for Caissie to strengthen his average, his slugging, his walk-rate, his OBP, his prospect status, everything offense, is to be able to whack more balls over the fence.  

For a 500-PA guy, an extra 10 HR's is worth 100 OPS points.  20 points in batting average/OBP, 80 points in slugging.  Caissie hit 19 HR last year, would like him on pace to hit 30 this season.  Ideally without wrecking his K-rate or walk rate or BABIP rates.  

FWIW ZiPS sees Caissie running BABIPs in the .340s and .350s the next few years.

Low O-contact rates and plus power are generally a good combo for a sustainably high BABIP.

11 hours ago, Bertz said:

FWIW ZiPS sees Caissie running BABIPs in the .340s and .350s the next few years.

Low O-contact rates and plus power are generally a good combo for a sustainably high BABIP.

Agree.  He's .385 career BABIP in minors.  .375 and .405 these last two seasons. 

https://www.milb.com/player/owen-caissie-683357