Chicago Cubs 2024 Offseason Top Prospects: #15-11

Our exploration of the Cubs top-20 continues with prospects #15 through #11. We explored #20 through #16 previously.  Below is a quick recap of the prospects who NSBB voted in each of those slots. 

#20 - Pedro Ramirez, 2B/SS/3B
#19 - Luis Vazquez, SS/3B
#18 - Michael Arias, RP
#17 - Alfonsin Rosario, OF
#16 - Drew Gray, SP

#15 Jonathon Long, 1B/LF, Tennessee Smokies (Double-A)
Jonathon Long is one of the most interesting prospects on this list right now. Long is a former 9th-round selection in the 2022 draft out of Long Beach State University. Entering the season, Long didn't have a massive resume suggesting he belonged to the Cub's top 10. Lacking draft pedigree or the ability to play a premium position, Long faced an uphill battle. However, something changed for the slugging right-hander mid-season upon a promotion to Tennessee. While he put up a strong enough time at South Bend (.247/.346/.417 121 wRC+), the first baseman went nuclear at Double-A, posting an insane 189 wRC+. On top of that, he's had amazing exit velocity, and statcast data suggests that while he's probably not 190 wRC+ good, he's maybe being slept on.

This earned Jonathon Long a trip to Arizona in the Arizona Fall League. While the pitching at the AFL is usually on the "light" side, Long has remained red-hot, hitting six home runs (tied for second), an OPS over 1.100 (fifth best), and a .348 average (9th best). Likely, he will immediately jump to Iowa to start the 2024 season. While it remains a narrow pathway to the MLB playing first, there seems to be enough juice with Long that this isn't a nothing prospect, either. Could he be more Matt Mervis than Michael Busch? Maybe! But any time you get this kind of production from a draft position that is best described as a "lottery ticket," you're a winner regardless.

#14 Fernando Cruz, SS, DSL Cubs
If there is one word that I think applies to Fernando Cruz, it's "patience." Cruz, the prize of the 2024 International Free Agency Period for the Cubs has yet to come stateside. While playing with the Dominican Summer League Cubs, the teenager struggled a bit on raw numbers - striking out 27% of the time, hitting just two home runs, and finishing with a .655 OPS. But. It's important to remember...Cruz is a teenager. We've seen with Cristian Hernandez (who features on this list) that hype/promise/expectations for even prized IFA players need to be tempered a bit and that it can take a while for a player to break out. Cruz has a big future, and while the numbers don't jump off the page, we're talking about a big promise here. Just be patient. 

#13 Derniche Valdez, SS, ACL Cubs
Most of what was written about Fernando Cruz also applied to Derniche Valdez. Derniche Valdez was the 2023 Cubs' big IFA splash, signing for $2.8m and finding his way to the DSL Cubs. While Valdez also struggled with strikeouts, he showed off the power potential, hitting six home runs as a 17-year-old and earning his way to Arizona in 2024. Sadly for Valdez, I don't think the 2024 season went how he hoped it'd have gone. 

The shortstop started the year on the restricted list, which delayed his debut in the Arizona Complex League. When he finally got going in May, he quickly suffered an undisclosed injury, which knocked him out until July. Overall, the powerful hitter only saw action in 17 official games and had under 70 PAs, making it very difficult to evaluate the season other than to consider it a lost year and to hope for a more consistent and normal year in 2025. Valdez may still start 2025 in the ACL but could also see time in Myrtle Beach. Getting the most out of his power will be a point of emphasis for the former IFA prize. But much like with Cruz...just be patient - there's a pretty good foundation for a player here. 

#12 Alexander Canario, OF, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A)
The hard-hitting outfield prospect, Alexander Canario, is in a very weird position in the Cubs' organization. On the surface, Canario had a pretty good year in Iowa, hitting 18 home runs in under 300 plate appearances while posting an isolated slugging over .270 and an overall line good for 116 wRC+. However, a longer look at the righty gives you some pause as to what he can be moving forward. Canario's sub 63% contact rate was nearly 10% below that of the Triple-A average, and if he carried over the same contact rate to the MLB (which, considering the jump in talent, would be hard to do), would put him below every qualified hitter at the level. The results at Iowa suggest one thing, but the processes suggest another. 

In the end, I don't think Canario has much of a pathway with the Cubs. The Cubs already have four OF starters for three positions between Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, and the recently opted-in Cody Bellinger, and that doesn't factor in at least two prospects Canario is behind as well in Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara. If the Cubs opt to keep Mike Tauchman, Canario might be no better than eighth in the pecking order. While I don't think he will offer a ton of trade value, I suspect that he could be on his way out of the organization this offseason as a 2nd or 3rd piece in a smaller trade. A team that's pretty empty in the OF could give him a chance to see if the power can outpace the contact issues, and maybe he could carve out a Patrick Wisdom-esque type of career. There's a decent chance that Canario is just that of a Quadruple-A player, but I remain rooting for him to succeed somewhere.

#11 Cristian Hernandez, SS, South Bend Cubs (High-A)
The "next A-Rod," Cristian Hernandez, is a good reason to remain patient with Derniche Valdez and Fernando Cruz. Entering the season, Hernandez had struggled over his previous 800+ plate appearances in Low-A. Struggling to hit in general, Hernandez was starting to look to the outside observer as a bust. With improved mechanics and a better approach at the plate, Hernandez posted a much, much, much improved 135 wRC+ before being promoted to South Bend. Hernandez struggled a bit more upon moving up, but we can probably pass that off as new struggles at a new level.

It's hard not to be kind of excited about the progress Hernandez has shown. "The next A-Rod" was always an unfair comparison, and I think we know today that he's probably not that guy. He's not a major power bat, and he may never be one, but he's showing much better barrel control, and there's enough in the body that, with some added muscle, there's still power projection. Hernandez may never become an amazing, undeniable star prospect, but his development is fun, and there's a real chance he's definitely a top-8 or so prospect at year's end. 2024 was a big year for the former IFA prize.

Interested in learning more about the Chicago Cubs' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!