Cubs sign Thielbar

[thawv]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'm not going on anything other than people who have reported what the Cubs can spend. That's not a thought or an assumption - that's real reporting from people who have real connections to the team. Nothing should have changed that math. The debt structure wasn't some new wrinkle or anything. 

So it doesn't make sense to doom boner and worry about some random idea that all of a sudden the math has changed because they signed Caleb Thielbar. Instead, it's probably the best to just...not even worry about their spending. They will probably still bring in those players, and spend around $30m or so more. 

Yes but that money they "can" spend is the same amount under their budget.  Can being able to spend, and actually be allowed to spend, or actually spending is not the same.

Signing Caleb never even crossed my mind about them spending.  If they are tucking away 10 for in season money, they still have 38 million to spend.  I personally don't think they'll come close to spending that money.  As disappointed as I'd be if they left that much money on the table, I'll take 30 million is spending from here on out. .  

[Bertz]

There are three times where the team has not spent up to the LT:

1. Circa ~2015 when Bryant et al were so cheap the team more or less couldn't spend up to the line without getting worse

2. When the team was really bad in 2012/2013/2022

3. In 2021 coming off of COVID with in person attendance plans being very tenuous

Ive yet to hear anything of substance about why this year would be a new 4th category.  It's mainly just specious "it hasn't happened yet so it won't happen" ninniness.

[Rcal10]

29 minutes ago, thawv said:

Yes but that money they "can" spend is the same amount under their budget.  Can being able to spend, and actually be allowed to spend, or actually spending is not the same.

Signing Caleb never even crossed my mind about them spending.  If they are tucking away 10 for in season money, they still have 38 million to spend.  I personally don't think they'll come close to spending that money.  As disappointed as I'd be if they left that much money on the table, I'll take 30 million is spending from here on out. .  

But why? What changed? You said you thought they would spend at least $40M once they dealt Bellinger? Why has that opinion changed? Even the story in the private equity investors did not suggest they won’t spend to close to the line this year. That was more about signing a guy to a mega deal. So why won’t they spend $40M+ now? Something like Yates for $14M, Joe for $3M, Thielbar for $3M, Rojas for $6M gives the gives them $14M to maybe $18M to add add starting pitcher. Maybe Jed likes Lopez. He cost a bit more. So he isn’t making a move elsewhere until he sees if he can get Lopez. Maybe he likes Jax too. So again, not going to sign Yates if he thinks he has a chance at Jax and Lopez. Maybe he has had talks with SD about Cesse. But SD is waiting on Sasaki.
No action up until now doesn’t mean they changed their plan. It could very well mean they have a lot of balls in the air and don’t want to eliminate a possibility by signing someone before exploring all options. Why does lack of action now, still very early, turn into gloom and doom? 

[thawv]

14 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

But why? What changed? You said you thought they would spend at least $40M once they dealt Bellinger? Why has that opinion changed? Even the story in the private equity investors did not suggest they won’t spend to close to the line this year. That was more about signing a guy to a mega deal. So why won’t they spend $40M+ now? Something like Yates for $14M, Joe for $3M, Thielbar for $3M, Rojas for $6M gives the gives them $14M to maybe $18M to add add starting pitcher. Maybe Jed likes Lopez. He cost a bit more. So he isn’t making a move elsewhere until he sees if he can get Lopez. Maybe he likes Jax too. So again, not going to sign Yates if he thinks he has a chance at Jax and Lopez. Maybe he has had talks with SD about Cesse. But SD is waiting on Sasaki.
No action up until now doesn’t mean they changed their plan. It could very well mean they have a lot of balls in the air and don’t want to eliminate a possibility by signing someone before exploring all options. Why does lack of action now, still very early, turn into gloom and doom? 

Because every big FA is off the board.  I wish I can find what I read about the PE telling Tom, he can't give out a long term deal until the next CBA is complete.  I'm paraphrasing of course.  Right now, I'd be very, very surprised if the spent that 40 million off season money. 

I don't think it's early in the FA market.  The best ones are gone.  So it's going to be lower priced guys.  MAYBE Flaherty.  I'm just not confident they will spend to win.  Barring a trade, the offense is set.  They can use one or two pen guys, and one or two SP's.  We'll wait to see it this happens. 

[Rcal10]

32 minutes ago, thawv said:

Because every big FA is off the board.  I wish I can find what I read about the PE telling Tom, he can't give out a long term deal until the next CBA is complete.  I'm paraphrasing of course.  Right now, I'd be very, very surprised if the spent that 40 million off season money. 

I don't think it's early in the FA market.  The best ones are gone.  So it's going to be lower priced guys.  MAYBE Flaherty.  I'm just not confident they will spend to win.  Barring a trade, the offense is set.  They can use one or two pen guys, and one or two SP's.  We'll wait to see it this happens. 

I guess my plan to spend the $40M never had signing a top FA pitcher anyway. So that could be why I don’t see any change. But, exactly who is gone that you really, honestly thought they would sign? Beside Flaherty isn’t Pivetta available? I don’t expect either, but to your way of thinking, there are still a few. If you really thought they would sign Burnes that’s on you. That is you not being realistic from the start. It is very easy to spend $40M and not have to sign a top FA pitcher. At the very least they can use one more pen arm, 1 bench bat and one starting pitcher. $40M is enough for all, but not if you are going to spend $35M Burnes.

[We Got The Whole 9]

2 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'm not going on anything other than people who have reported what the Cubs can spend. That's not a thought or an assumption - that's real reporting from people who have real connections to the team. Nothing should have changed that math. The debt structure wasn't some new wrinkle or anything. 

So it doesn't make sense to doom boner and worry about some random idea that all of a sudden the math has changed because they signed Caleb Thielbar. Instead, it's probably the best to just...not even worry about their spending. They will probably still bring in those players, and spend around $30m or so more. 

Well the options are pretty friggin slim to spend that money on. Flaherty is the last SPFA of interest who would command 20+, theyve shown no interest in Scott. Theres maybe a few trades that can be made but the smoke is thin as incense. Ive laid out a blueprint to bring in some real quality pitching and they are seemingly showing no interest in most of those guys.

 

Where the horsefeathers are they gonna spend this money realistically? Every article is also pessimistic on making an effort on Tucker.

 

Im feeling really uneasy. The Thielbar move is actually a good one and I see the logic and the upside. But it sure feels like Jed is not interested in the guys who would take up that money.

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Well the options are pretty friggin slim to spend that money on. Flaherty is the last SPFA of interest who would command 20+, theyve shown no interest in Scott. Theres maybe a few trades that can be made but the smoke is thin as incense. Ive laid out a blueprint to bring in some real quality pitching and they are seemingly showing no interest in most of those guys.

 

Where the horsefeathers are they gonna spend this money realistically? Every article is also pessimistic on making an effort on Tucker.

 

Im feeling really uneasy. The Thielbar move is actually a good one and I see the logic and the upside. But it sure feels like Jed is not interested in the guys who would take up that money.

It'd be weird if articles were optimistic on Tucker. Tucker is going to be a tough sign - he's a very good player, who's never played in Chicago and the Cubs dont generally give out 7+ year deals. That doesn't mean it won't happen, but the odds are against it. The odds were against them trading for him, as well. Much of it is a self fulfilling prophecy though. He's going to sign a contract that's among the 5 or 10 largest so there's really no precedenct for almost any team here. I think the Cubs will engage him earnestly, however. And while it's hard to be *optimistic* about it, I feel there's a real chance. 

 

Secondly, I think its far more likely a trade happens for a SP. They didn't make a move for Luzardo but they were in heavily on him. It's unlikely they just give up there. But there's options so let's wait and see. There's plenty of time. This is an incomplete roster. 

People got worried when they didn't even bother engaging with Soto but they went and got Tucker. I wouldn't be worried that the team just said "well Luzardo or bust!" at SP. They'll have another. I feel pretty confident about that. As have Mooney and Sharma, the most connected of the bunch.

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'm not going on anything other than people who have reported what the Cubs can spend. That's not a thought or an assumption - that's real reporting from people who have real connections to the team. Nothing should have changed that math. The debt structure wasn't some new wrinkle or anything. 

So it doesn't make sense to doom boner and worry about some random idea that all of a sudden the math has changed because they signed Caleb Thielbar. Instead, it's probably the best to just...not even worry about their spending. They will probably still bring in those players, and spend around $30m or so more. 

Maybe on a SP if they don't get Sasaki but other then that, I don't see them adding anyone that would cost over 10 mil per.

Any additional bullpen arms they might add will likely be like the ones they have added, low cost 1-2 yr deals or minor league deal.

Same with any additional bench players they might add for depth.

I wouldn't be surprise if they don't spend any more then an additional 20-25 mil and that only if they add another SP outside of Sasaki. 

Personally for the bench if he becomes available,  I wouldn’t mind adding Justin Turner on a 1 yr deal. I know he 40 but he'd be perfect for what they need , a solid veteran who can play both corner infield positions, and he can DH some . 

[Bertz]

10 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Well the options are pretty friggin slim to spend that money on.

This isn't really true at all.  23 of MLBTR's top 50 free agents are still on the board.  Options are slim if you want one guy to give ~$25M per year on sure.  But there's still plenty of talent available and even with the $35-40M we think Jed still has to play with there's still some tough decisions to make to fill out the roster.

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Maybe on a SP if they don't get Sasaki but other then that, I don't see them adding anyone that would cost over 10 mil per.

Any additional bullpen arms they might add will likely be like the ones they have added, low cost 1-2 yr deals or minor league deal.

Same with any additional bench players they might add for depth.

I wouldn't be surprise if they don't spend any more then an additional 20-25 mil and that only if they add another SP outside of Sasaki. 

Personally for the bench if he becomes available,  I wouldn’t mind adding Justin Turner on a 1 yr deal. I know he 40 but he'd be perfect for what they need , a solid veteran who can play both corner infield positions, and he can DH some . 

I will only respond on the one thing I agree with you on. I wouldn’t mind Turner. But I think he will want to go somewhere he can get 400+ AB and probably cost too much if the Xubs do plan on adding a decent starting pitcher. And I think they do. 

[thawv]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

I guess my plan to spend the $40M never had signing a top FA pitcher anyway. So that could be why I don’t see any change. But, exactly who is gone that you really, honestly thought they would sign? Beside Flaherty isn’t Pivetta available? I don’t expect either, but to your way of thinking, there are still a few. If you really thought they would sign Burnes that’s on you. That is you not being realistic from the start. It is very easy to spend $40M and not have to sign a top FA pitcher. At the very least they can use one more pen arm, 1 bench bat and one starting pitcher. $40M is enough for all, but not if you are going to spend $35M Burnes.

I had myself duped in to think they were going to sign Burnes.  That's on me.  

[Transmogrified Tiger]

As an example, Rojas (5), Canha (8), Yates (10), Heaney(12) gets you to 37 pretty quickly as a middle of the road outcome. Depending on how Sasaki pans out and some of the quieter teams that have money to move, you could see money shift among those roster spots for other options in FA(Flaherty? Hoffman? Scott?) or trade(Minnesota, Seattle, etc).

[Rcal10]

19 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

It'd be weird if articles were optimistic on Tucker. Tucker is going to be a tough sign - he's a very good player, who's never played in Chicago and the Cubs dont generally give out 7+ year deals. That doesn't mean it won't happen, but the odds are against it. The odds were against them trading for him, as well. Much of it is a self fulfilling prophecy though. He's going to sign a contract that's among the 5 or 10 largest so there's really no precedenct for almost any team here. I think the Cubs will engage him earnestly, however. And while it's hard to be *optimistic* about it, I feel there's a real chance. 

 

Secondly, I think its far more likely a trade happens for a SP. They didn't make a move for Luzardo but they were in heavily on him. It's unlikely they just give up there. But there's options so let's wait and see. There's plenty of time. This is an incomplete roster. 

People got worried when they didn't even bother engaging with Soto but they went and got Tucker. I wouldn't be worried that the team just said "well Luzardo or bust!" at SP. They'll have another. I feel pretty confident about that. As have Mooney and Sharma, the most connected of the bunch.

Well said. Seems the negative posters love to point to an article that suggest they might not spend. Or point to not many FA available. But how about Jed saying, at the beginning of the off season, that he expects most of the big moves to come from trades, not FA. Why isn’t that discussed. Who cares what FA pitchers are left? IMO the Cubs never considered the big 3, and then after Eovaldi got what he got and even Buehler got what he got, that pretty much took them out of Pivetta and Flaherty(if they were actually considering them anyway-which I doubt they were). I expect any larger contract ($15M to $22M) for a pitcher will be on a pitcher they traded for. Then add a pen and in the $10M-$13M range, and a bench bat or two. 

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

As an example, Rojas (5), Canha (8), Yates (10), Heaney(12) gets you to 37 pretty quickly as a middle of the road outcome. Depending on how Sasaki pans out and some of the quieter teams that have money to move, you could see money shift among those roster spots for other options in FA(Flaherty? Hoffman? Scott?) or trade(Minnesota, Seattle, etc).

This is one example with all FA. Personally I don’t think it will be all FA from here on out. But, to your point, this is a good example of how they can spend it and not get a high priced guy. 

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, thawv said:

I had myself duped in to think they were going to sign Burnes.  That's on me.  

So now that they didn’t can you accept it and realize they still can spend $40M pretty easily on 3 or 4 players? Might have to get 1 or 2 in a trade. But it can be done.

[chibears55]

13 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I will only respond on the one thing I agree with you on. I wouldn’t mind Turner. But I think he will want to go somewhere he can get 400+ AB and probably cost too much if the Xubs do plan on adding a decent starting pitcher. And I think they do. 

Yeah, he'd likely want the guarenteed ABs and have a legit Shot at the postseason.

 

[Rcal10]

16 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Yeah, he'd likely want the guarenteed ABs and have a legit Shot at the postseason.

 

There are not that many teams who have a more legit shot at the post season than the Cubs, and need a guy who can play 1st and 3rd AND where he will get 400AB.  

[chibears55]

41 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

There are not that many teams who have a more legit shot at the post season than the Cubs, and need a guy who can play 1st and 3rd AND where he will get 400AB.  

You just quoted me above that he would want a team that could guarentee him 400 AB as tge Cubs couldn't 

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

You just quoted me above that he would want a team that could guarentee him 400 AB as tge Cubs couldn't 

The point I was making by my post is the cubs do have a legit chance at the playoffs. You suggested, along with AB, he would probably want to sign with a team with a legit chance. I think the only reason he wouldn’t sign here is the AB, Oh, and of course the Cubs aren’t going to pay him what he needs. 😬 I don’t think that is where they want to put money. 

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, thawv said:

When they traded for Tucker, and moved Belli is the exact moment that I thought they would spend about 40 million this off season.  Not I'm not so confident about that.  Once they traded for Tucker and dumped Belli's money, I convinced myself that they are going big on SP.  I was quite wrong again. 

I think Jed may have a purposeful strategy not to spend big on SP.   There's a lot of variance with pitchers including getting hurt frequently.  They may not want to risk a season on a 30 million AAV man getting hurt, even needing TJS etc.  A 4 WAR pitcher goes down with TJS and a team on the playoff fringes like the Cubs have been are basically out of the playoffs for sure. 

Theo did similar with draft picks.  Pitching prospects flame out at a higher rate so he drafted position guys and used FA and trades to grab SP.

 

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, thawv said:

Because every big FA is off the board.  I wish I can find what I read about the PE telling Tom, he can't give out a long term deal until the next CBA is complete.  I'm paraphrasing of course.  Right now, I'd be very, very surprised if the spent that 40 million off season money. 

I don't think it's early in the FA market.  The best ones are gone.  So it's going to be lower priced guys.  MAYBE Flaherty.  I'm just not confident they will spend to win.  Barring a trade, the offense is set.  They can use one or two pen guys, and one or two SP's.  We'll wait to see it this happens. 

They can easily spend 40m even if they don't sign a big name player.  1 SP for 15-20m AAV, 1 closer-type reliever, and one solid corner INF bench bat has them there.  They go low on the SP around 15m and they could add maybe a 2nd reliever and/or 2nd bench bat.

[Rcal10]

14 minutes ago, Stratos said:

They can easily spend 40m even if they don't sign a big name player.  1 SP for 15-20m AAV, 1 closer-type reliever, and one solid corner INF bench bat has them there.  They go low on the SP around 15m and they could add maybe a 2nd reliever and/or 2nd bench bat.

Absolutely. Might have to acquire guys through trades. Which, if anyone remembers, Jed said he expected more activity via trades than FA. 

[Michael Busch Light]

Kind of wish we would aim higher but Thielbar somehow has always been able to get guys out.  Still pretty meh. 

[Development DL]

More moves coming . Build in the aggregate , especially the pen .  I enjoy the articles and the comments as it plays out .  
The process is what I enjoy most , in following the team that spawned , Hack , Caveretta and Hartnett . 

[Rcal10]

Cubs are mentioned with 5 other teams as a possible landing spot for Scherzer. It is also mentioned he would probably want around $20M on a 1 year deal and he expects to pitch in 25’. This was in mlb trade rumors. Probably nothing, and just speculation.  But I guess it is possible.