Chicago Cubs 2024 Offseason Top 20 Prospects: No. 6, Cam Smith

[Jason Ross]

The Cubs selected the Florida State third baseman early in the 2024 draft. After an eye-opening debut with the Cubs, what should we expect from the slugging right-handed hitter as we move forward? 

We continue today looking at the Cubs' top 20 prospects (as ranked by our readers here at NSBB), with Smith, who comes in at No. 6 on that countdown. Before you read about him, though, don't miss our previous posts on the current state of the Cubs' farm system, with my looks at some honorable mentions, the Cubs' Top Prospects #20-16 and the Top Prospects #15-11. 
#20 - Pedro Ramirez, INF
#19 - Luis Vazquez, INF
#18 - Michael Arias, RP
#17 - Alfonsin Rosario - OF
#16 - Drew Gray, SP
#15 - Jonathon Long, 1B
#14 - Fernando Cruz, SS
#13 - Derniche Valdez, SS
#12 - Alexander Canario, OF
#11 - Cristian Hernandez, SS
#10 - Brandon Birdsell, SP
#9 - Jaxon Wiggins, SP
#8 - Jefferson Rojas
#7 - James Triantos 

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2024 Season Recap: Cam Smith, 3B
Cam Smith started his year with the Florida State Seminoles and finished it with the Tennessee Smokies, jumping multiple levels over a short amount of time. Entering the draft, Smith had an interesting profile. Models loved his improved contact ability and exit velocity in college. Moreover, he was a darling of the Cape Cod League (a common theme among recent Cub draftees), showing skill with wood bats. If there was a knock on him, however, it's that his swing had undergone a change from 2023 to 2024: it got much, much flatter. This helped him lower his overall strikeout rate from 28% to a paltry 14% and helped increase his batting average by .150, but it also caused some concern about whether or not Smith (a third baseman who may eventually need to move to left field) would be capable of hitting for enough power. Clearly, the Cubs were either unfazed by this change, or felt as though they could work through it, because they selected him 14th overall. 

Upon being drafted, all the former Seminole did was crush baseballs, helping to dispel any notion that his swing would be a problem. Smith went nuts at Myrtle Beach, posting a wRC+ well north of 200 in his first 57 plate appearances, slashing .313/.400/.771. He followed this with 57 more plate appearances at South Bend with a 160 wRC+, which earned him a short-term promotion to finish out the year in Tennessee with 20 plate appearances in the Smokies' playoff run. It was a pretty successful year, all told, and while none of the samples are large, the early returns on their pick were tremendously encouraging.

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2025 Season Outlook and Scouting Report: ETA - Mid-to-Late 2026
Smith had a really great 2024, and it's likely that he will start with the Tennessee Smokies in 2025. With a background playing at a good baseball school and seeing College World Series action. Smith will be turning 22 fairly early next year, so his age suggests that Double-A is a good home for him, too. Chicago's 2023 first-round selection, Matt Shaw, saw a similar boost to Double-A in his drafted year and spent most of 2024 in Tennessee, before moving to Iowa at the end of the year. I think a similar path for Smith makes sense. Delaying his ETA a little is the fact that he's got a little less versatility than Shaw (who could play second or third and, in a pinch, might moonlight a few games at shortstop if the team were desperate), so projecting a mid-2026 ETA is being conservative but fair.

I'm curious to see how Smith's bat path and launch angle change throughout his time in the minors. The Cubs are on record that they try not to mess with swings as long as they're successful, and Smith's slash lines suggest that he's being successful. If we want to nitpick his data a bit, he hit a lot of ground balls in his 70 times up between High-A South Bend and Double-A Tennessee, finishing at 50% and 43.8%, respectively. If you're envisioning Smith as a power-hitting third baseman who slugs 30 home runs, that's not a great trait to have. I would imagine the Cubs will look to maximize Smith's size (listed at 6'3", 224 lbs) and generate some more loft. Trading a few strikeouts for some home runs is probably okay here.

Defensively, he's been considered an average or so fielder with a strong arm at third. Concerns about him stem from the size and the future athleticism in his profile. It's not hard to see where Smith might just be a bit cumbersome at the hot corner long-term if he were to fill out any more, but that could also just be one of those draft-day fears that never materialize. As of now, it's probably fair to consider him a third baseman until we need to worry about it, with the understanding maybe third won't be his final destination.

When speaking of his upside, Smith offers one of the highest ceilings in the system. You wouldn't be alone if you envisioned a third baseman who could meld a better-than-average contact skill with plus power and a solid glove. Based on his size and skill level, there's probably a Manny Machado comp to be made on his highest-end outcome—size-wise, position-wise and skills-wise. Alas, he probably doesn't have the defensive skill of prime, young Machado. Think more Padres Machado, where he's hitting 25-30 home runs with a 130 wRC+, though with maybe a little less defense. That would be a really fun player to have.

The slightly pessimistic side on Smith has you looking at the ground ball rate and wondering why someone who has the size of Cam Smith can't seem to find a way to hit the ball in the air more often. It could also mean that his size would push him to a position where the bat is more important, and hitting that many ground balls is even less okay. I'm not trying to throw cold water on anyone, but we have to recognize where pitfalls exist; there isn't such thing as a "perfect prospect". 

Regardless, I'll be dreaming on the upside and quite excited for this guy next year. Getting to see a full season of Smith as he adjusts and pitchers adjust back will be good. The sky is the limit here, and it really wouldn't be shocking to see him as a universal top-25 type by the end of the year if he takes off. 

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What do you think of Cam Smith today? Has your opinion of him changed since draft day? Let us know in the comments below!

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[Outshined_One]

I remember discussion about his swings going into and coming out of the Draft, where his 2023 swing was more of a sell-out for power stroke and his 2024 swing was more of a controlled line drive approach.  I can't find the posts off-hand, but the hope for Smith in the Cubs' system was basically that he'd find a way to incorporate both swings into an A and B hack approach, depending on the pitcher/count/etc.

He's clearly got the goods to be a 25-30 HR hitter with respectable contact rates, it's just a matter of growth and development.

[Tryptamine]

Very excited for Cam's 2025. His bat has the highest upside in the system, a true franchise bat. 

[Donzo]

Damn...

Heck of a prospect. Gotta give somethin' to get somethin'.

[chopsx9]

D'Oh.  

[Outshined_One]

He has the potential to rake at Minute Maid Park.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Oh please oh please sign Tucker