Chicago Cubs 2024 Offseason Top 20 Prospects: No. 9, Jaxon Wiggins

[Jason Ross]

When the Cubs selected Jaxon Wiggins in the second round of the 2023 MLB Draft, it raised the eyebrows of many. A year later, what has Wiggins done and where might he be headed?

Image courtesy of South Bend Cubs

We continue today looking at the Cubs' top 20 prospects (as ranked by our readers here at NSBB), by looking at Jaxon Wiggins, the ninth-ranked prospect. Before you read about Wiggins, don't miss our first three parts on the current state of the Cubs' farm system with my looks at some honorable mentions, the Cubs' Top Prospects #20-16 and the Top Prospects #15-11. 
#20 - Pedro Ramirez, INF
#19 - Luis Vazquez, INF
#18 - Michael Arias, RP
#17 - Alfonsin Rosario - OF
#16 - Drew Gray, SP
#15 - Jonathon Long, 1b
#14 - Fernando Cruz, SS
#13 - Derniche Valdez, SS
#12 - Alexander Canario, OF
#11 - Cristian Hernandez, SS
#10 - Brandon Birdsell, SP

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2024 Recap: Jaxon Wiggins
Wiggins was a bit of a divisive pick when his name was called over a year ago. On one hand, he missed the entirety of the 2023 season with Tommy John surgery and never really established himself as the weekend starter many had hoped for when he committed to Arkansas. On the other hand, Wiggins was scouted by Ty Nichols, who's also been the primary scout on other draft wins such as Jordan Wicks and Cade Horton. Without a final season in college, it was hard to tell what the Cubs really drafted. 

The former Razorback got a bit of a delayed start to 2024 due to his previous surgery, but would finally take the mound in a Cub (albeit, minor-league) uniform in early May. After making just a few tune-up starts in Arizona, Wiggins was promoted to Myrtle Beach, where he looked pretty good. In 21 innings at Low-A, the righty struck out 26 hitters to just five walks. This was a really nice development, as we already knew that the stuff Wiggins had was impressive, but his ability to limit walks was always going to be a bit of a decider for his long-term future. He quickly dusted off the rust and did what you'd hope a 23-year-old would do at Myrtle Beach: he dominated hitters.

Things got a little more challenging as he moved up a level, however, as the fireballer saw his ERA jump from the low 2s to the mid-4s. And while walks never became a massive issue, his walk rate nearly doubled from just under 7% to over 13%. I'm not concerned with these. Wiggins is working back from TJ, saw three levels of minor-league baseball, and his strikeout rate continued to look impressive. The good news is that much of his struggles came with the initial call-up, and he managed to settle in and close out the year strong, striking out 17 hitters in his final 10 innings, giving up just two runs and four hits. 

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2025 Season Outlook and Scouting Report: ETA - 2026
It's hard not to dream on what Wiggins can be. It's likely that he will at least start the season in South Bend, the High-A affiliate of the Cubs. If he can start the 2025 season the same way he closed out the 2024 season, he shouldn't be stuck in South Bend for too long and will probably see half of a season at Tennessee, as well. This would put Wiggins on a course to be ready by sometime in 2026.

The key variable in Wiggins's future value is his role. There's no denying that the fastball has the optics of one that can be dominating. Able to run his fastball to triple-digits, he does not lack velocity. While we don't have publicly available Statcast data, standing at 6-foot-6, it's likely that with his extension, his fastball is even heavier than the velocity suggests it to be. 

What's good about Wiggins is that there's more here than just a fastball. Baseball America reported at the time of his drafting that he had already displayed a feel for an advanced changeup, and he sports a slider that flashes plus and a curveball that is more than useful, giving him a solid four-pitch mix. Many times when we look at big fastballs, it's a "fastball and not much" profile, or a "fastball and one plus pitch," but Wiggins is already on the path to having a good mix. 

Mechanically, he doesn't have a wacky, wild, or funky delivery. Most of the time it's really simple and repeatable—again, not usually something that goes hand in hand with inconsistent strike throwing. Where Wiggins is probably done-in a bit, is with that frame that helps create the extension; controlling such a huge human body is not an easy thing to do time and time again. The hope is that with a consistent throwing program, continuing to define and tweak his mechanics, that he learns to do that naturally. He'll never be Greg Maddux on the mound, but he strikes out enough hitters and has shown a penchant for getting the ball on the ground that he can probably survive with a slightly elevated walk total. 

The good news for the Cubs is that even if Wiggins can never get his control to "decent", there's more than one pathway for the hurler to becoming a useful part of a future Cub pitching staff, as his stuff would make for the foundations of a dominating reliever if starting just doesn't work out. 

Overall, there's a lot to like here. For Wiggins, 2025 can be a really good launch pad for his prospect ranking. With the Cubs likely to graduate a few prospects ahead of him on the list and to trade others, Wiggins has a clear path to being a top-3 prospect in the system come year's end. However, there's enough volatility here that there's no guarantees that he's going to continue to find his mechanics repeatable or that he'll maintain his health. There's a world in the near future where it's not impossible to dream of a Horton-Wiggins 1-2 punch at the front of a rotation, but with either, enough fog that it's unlikely to happen. But that'd be a pretty fun 1-2 punch if they can make it happen.

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What do you think of Jaxon Wiggins? Have you changed your mind about the draft pick since July of 2023? Let us know in the comment section below!

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[CubinNY]

Way too high on this guy. He can't throw strikes. 

Edited November 15, 2024 by CubinNY

[Jason Ross]

25 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Way too high on this guy. He can't throw strikes. 

He's certainly "effectively wild" but the walk rate isn't horrid right now, and we're seeing someone working back from TJS. This is not only someone who is rusty, but someone developing. 

We don't have full statcast data for Wiggins because he's yet to make it to the Triple-A level, so we're at a point where it's kind of hard to completely show off his strike-throwing ability or how many non-competitive strikes he throws. But what we can do is at least look at walk rates and strike% relative to his league. 

Jaxon Wiggins (Low-A) - 62.8% strikes with a 6.3 BB% 
Jaxon Wiggins (High-A) - 58 % strikes with a 13.9 BB%

Low-A average: 61.7% strikes with a 11.4 BB%
High-A average: 62.% strikes with a 10.3% BB%

I'm not sure it's entirely fair to say he cannot throw strikes. He was an above average strike thrower and was better than average at limiting walks at Low-A and was below average at both at High-A but not egregiously so. I'd like to see improvement as well, but he's someone who gets a lot of chase and a lot of ground balls currently. You can work around some strike throwing inconsistencies with that profile. 

Furthermore, I do think he's accurately ranked by NSBB here. He's got massive stuff and while there's clearly some polish on the strike throwing ability, who exactly should be ranked much higher than him? Everyone below him has a wart of their own. Birdsell has weird mechanics and doesn't have massive stuff, Cruz and Valdez both have yet to hit well and are babies, Long is a popup prospect who plays 1b...

[CubinNY]

3 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

He's certainly "effectively wild" but the walk rate isn't horrid right now, and we're seeing someone working back from TJS. This is not only someone who is rusty, but someone developing. 

We don't have full statcast data for Wiggins because he's yet to make it to the Triple-A level, so we're at a point where it's kind of hard to completely show off his strike-throwing ability or how many non-competitive strikes he throws. But what we can do is at least look at walk rates and strike% relative to his league. 

Jaxon Wiggins (Low-A) - 62.8% strikes with a 6.3 BB% 
Jaxon Wiggins (High-A) - 58 % strikes with a 13.9 BB%

Low-A average: 61.7% strikes with a 11.4 BB%
High-A average: 62.% strikes with a 10.3% BB%

I'm not sure it's entirely fair to say he cannot throw strikes. He was an above average strike thrower and was better than average at limiting walks at Low-A and was below average at both at High-A but not egregiously so. I'd like to see improvement as well, but he's someone who gets a lot of chase and a lot of ground balls currently. You can work around some strike throwing inconsistencies with that profile. 

Furthermore, I do think he's accurately ranked by NSBB here. He's got massive stuff and while there's clearly some polish on the strike throwing ability, who exactly should be ranked much higher than him? Everyone below him has a wart of their own. Birdsell has weird mechanics and doesn't have massive stuff, Cruz and Valdez both have yet to hit well and are babies, Long is a popup prospect who plays 1b...

He. Can't. Throw. Strikes. 

[Jason Ross]

22 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

He. Can't. Throw. Strikes. 

Is there some data you would like to provide? I don't mean that in a smug way, but you're pretty convinced of this. I tried to present an evidence based response using publicly available data, but I always recognize I don't have everything at my finger tips and may have missed, or glossed over something. 

With that said, it does feel a bit like you've got a position and aren't super interested in any data moving you, which I would highly suggest being open to new ideas here. Wiggins didn't throw a ton of strikes when we last saw him in college, but we're two years away from that. The data I provided paints the picture of someone who's strong suit probably isn't filling the zone, but is a standard deviation or two away from "can't throw strikes". 

[CubinNY]

The entire time he's pitched including college he has walked 5.5 (6) per 9 innings. He's got a WHIP of 1.5. That's not good. 

[Jason Ross]

30 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

The entire time he's pitched including college he has walked 5.5 (6) per 9 innings. He's got a WHIP of 1.5. That's not good. 

That's true, but the last time he took the mound officially in college was in fall league baseball, during 2022. That's nearly two years in the past. The last time he pitched in an SEC game was in the spring of 2022, which will be over three years away from his 2025 season debut. That was as a Sophomore. We're well beyond that being a relevant data point. I think we should be using his Cub data exclusively here.

While I understand you feel as though a 1.5 WHIP is a telling statistic, I would caution us from using it as a data point to suggest he "can not throw strikes". First, WHIP just isn't a very useful statistic for our purposes. Yes, WHIP does include walks, but it also includes hits. Hits against the MiLB level are misleading - you're dealing with a lot of players learning positions, going through growing pains. You're not playing in front of an elite defense. We have better data points than WHIP today. 

But let's put that aside for a moment and let's use WHIP. How did Wiggins do comparative to his two age levels in 2024? His ACL numbers were pretty bad, but I'm not going to use them here for two reasons: first, these were clearly tune up sessions for a pitcher coming off a year and a half of being layed up. Secondly, he clearly improved later and this data set is a very heavy outlier.

Jaxon Wiggins (Low-A): .81 WHIP 
Jaxon Wiggins (High-A): 1.42 WHIP

Low-A League average: 1.38 WHIP
High - A League average: 1.32 WHIP

So even if we ant to put aside the issues we should have with WHIP in general, it's not even suggesting he's somehow bad. He was amazing at Low-A and at High-A his WHIP was .1 higher than league average. To put that in perspective, over the course of 31.2 IP. that's less than a full baserunner. If he pitched a full slate of 150 IP, that is around 15 base runners, or one extra over every 10 innings. That is an incredibly small difference and one easily made up for with strong K% and ground ball rates that will eliminate runners by the double-play.

In the end, I don't see anything to support an idea that he can't throw strikes. Again, I think it's fair to point out that his strike throwing can improve and that it's going to be something to monitor. But that is very different to how strongly you've presented his strike throwing issues.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Also, look at the names behind Wiggins on the list. This is the point in a prospect ranking where everyone has a fatal flaw that will probably tank their ability to be a productive major leaguer.  

We've known all along that control/command will be the bellwether for Wiggins, he's made some small strides and has reasons to at least hope for more(full injury recovery, limited college/pro developmental time due to the injury).  I would put Birdsell ahead of him on a list today, but it's not outrageous to shuffle a bunch of the names around at this point.  They're all likely to fail from an actuarial standpoint, shouting 'this guy isn't gonna do it' is uninteresting.

[Post Count Padder]

I like Wiggins a lot and am excited to see if he can continue to build with a strong 2025. I like all the info and thought 1908 put into this report and the follow-up comments. There's real bullpen risk, but he has a lot of the pieces in place to take the next step. And like TT said, I don't know if there's anyone behind him that's easily worthy of taking this spot in the rankings. Once you get past the top 5, it's kind of a crapshoot based on personal preference. I too like Birdsell a lot but he has warts. I like Derniche but he's so young and far away it's hard to predict what he'll be.

[CubinNY]

I get what everyone is saying but he’s done exactly nothing to support being in the top 10 other than getting drafted high. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

23 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I get what everyone is saying but he’s done exactly nothing to support being in the top 10 other than getting drafted high. 

He struck out 30% of hitters he faced, maintained a GB% over 50%, and gave up 2 HR in over 50 innings.  The walks color all of that but again that's why he's in the 'talented but flawed' echelon of prospects.  You're talking about him like he's so wild that it's all stuff no results, and that was not the case.

[Donzo]

11 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Way too high on this guy. He can't throw strikes. 

A lot of posters have commented on this already.  Good discussion, I’ll add to it. 

I see what you’re saying, but I think you’re hyper focused on one lifetime stat. You’re ignoring the big picture. He was drafted based on raw top end talent and potential over production. Having some ugly stats his first season is completely understandable. 

His prospect status is much more nuanced than his lifetime WHIP since HS. His college WHIP is pretty much irrelevant now. All of his stats, including WHIP, were much better his first year in the minors then his two years in college.

His improvement throughout the season was substantial. He had 5-6 starts in A-ball and was very good. When promoted to A+, he struggled. He got better and his last two starts were dominant: 

10IP, 4H, 5BB, 17K, 1ER, .9 ERA, .9 WHIP

This is the guy who’s the #9 prospect.

Edited November 16, 2024 by Donzo

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

He struck out 30% of hitters he faced, maintained a GB% over 50%, and gave up 2 HR in over 50 innings.  The walks color all of that but again that's why he's in the 'talented but flawed' echelon of prospects.  You're talking about him like he's so wild that it's all stuff no results, and that was not the case.

Most of the guys behind him aren't the most exciting prospects.  I agree the GB% has been really good so far.

I think arguing that he can't throw strikes is totally accurate though.  His BB/9 with the Cubs last year was the same as his seasons in college.  They went high-risk, high-reward with that draft pick, is what it is.  At least he's not Burl Carraway.

Edited November 16, 2024 by Stratos

[Post Count Padder]

Woof Burl Carraway. Now that's a guy who couldn't throw strikes. Is he still in the system or just gone forever?

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

Woof Burl Carraway. Now that's a guy who couldn't throw strikes. Is he still in the system or just gone forever?

Burl is still a member of the Chicago Cubs organization. Missed 2024 with arm injuries. I don't see anywhere that his contract has been terminated since being activated from the 60-day IL, but also wouldn't be surprised to see his name pop up as an MiLB FA at some point either. 

[Donzo]

10 hours ago, Stratos said:

I think arguing that he can't throw strikes is totally accurate though.  His BB/9 with the Cubs last year was the same as his seasons in college.

When you break down his season, his BB/9 was better with the Cubs.

As others pointed out last year was a rehab year for him. His first four starts were at the rookie complex, he was going through stuff. His IP/BB ratio was 7/12.

When the Cubs felt he was ready for MB (A ball), he was excellent the entire time. His IP/BB ratio was 21/5.

The Cubs moved him up to MB (A+) where he had eight starts. He struggled early, first two starts were tough. From reports he was overthrowing. He was up and down the next four starts and finished with two excellent games. The exact type of progress we're looking for.

All 'n all, this was a successful 60-inning first year in the minors for where he was coming from. He's there with Horton as a clear top two for best stuff in the system. That's why he's #9.

Edited November 16, 2024 by Donzo
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