Chicago Cubs 2024 Offseason Top 20 Prospects: No. 9, Jaxon Wiggins

Way too high on this guy. He can't throw strikes. 

25 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Way too high on this guy. He can't throw strikes. 

He's certainly "effectively wild" but the walk rate isn't horrid right now, and we're seeing someone working back from TJS. This is not only someone who is rusty, but someone developing. 

We don't have full statcast data for Wiggins because he's yet to make it to the Triple-A level, so we're at a point where it's kind of hard to completely show off his strike-throwing ability or how many non-competitive strikes he throws. But what we can do is at least look at walk rates and strike% relative to his league. 

Jaxon Wiggins (Low-A) - 62.8% strikes with a 6.3 BB% 
Jaxon Wiggins (High-A) - 58 % strikes with a 13.9 BB%

Low-A average: 61.7% strikes with a 11.4 BB%
High-A average: 62.% strikes with a 10.3% BB%

I'm not sure it's entirely fair to say he cannot throw strikes. He was an above average strike thrower and was better than average at limiting walks at Low-A and was below average at both at High-A but not egregiously so. I'd like to see improvement as well, but he's someone who gets a lot of chase and a lot of ground balls currently. You can work around some strike throwing inconsistencies with that profile. 

Furthermore, I do think he's accurately ranked by NSBB here. He's got massive stuff and while there's clearly some polish on the strike throwing ability, who exactly should be ranked much higher than him? Everyone below him has a wart of their own. Birdsell has weird mechanics and doesn't have massive stuff, Cruz and Valdez both have yet to hit well and are babies, Long is a popup prospect who plays 1b...

3 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

He's certainly "effectively wild" but the walk rate isn't horrid right now, and we're seeing someone working back from TJS. This is not only someone who is rusty, but someone developing. 

We don't have full statcast data for Wiggins because he's yet to make it to the Triple-A level, so we're at a point where it's kind of hard to completely show off his strike-throwing ability or how many non-competitive strikes he throws. But what we can do is at least look at walk rates and strike% relative to his league. 

Jaxon Wiggins (Low-A) - 62.8% strikes with a 6.3 BB% 
Jaxon Wiggins (High-A) - 58 % strikes with a 13.9 BB%

Low-A average: 61.7% strikes with a 11.4 BB%
High-A average: 62.% strikes with a 10.3% BB%

I'm not sure it's entirely fair to say he cannot throw strikes. He was an above average strike thrower and was better than average at limiting walks at Low-A and was below average at both at High-A but not egregiously so. I'd like to see improvement as well, but he's someone who gets a lot of chase and a lot of ground balls currently. You can work around some strike throwing inconsistencies with that profile. 

Furthermore, I do think he's accurately ranked by NSBB here. He's got massive stuff and while there's clearly some polish on the strike throwing ability, who exactly should be ranked much higher than him? Everyone below him has a wart of their own. Birdsell has weird mechanics and doesn't have massive stuff, Cruz and Valdez both have yet to hit well and are babies, Long is a popup prospect who plays 1b...

He. Can't. Throw. Strikes. 

22 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

He. Can't. Throw. Strikes. 

Is there some data you would like to provide? I don't mean that in a smug way, but you're pretty convinced of this. I tried to present an evidence based response using publicly available data, but I always recognize I don't have everything at my finger tips and may have missed, or glossed over something. 

With that said, it does feel a bit like you've got a position and aren't super interested in any data moving you, which I would highly suggest being open to new ideas here. Wiggins didn't throw a ton of strikes when we last saw him in college, but we're two years away from that. The data I provided paints the picture of someone who's strong suit probably isn't filling the zone, but is a standard deviation or two away from "can't throw strikes". 

The entire time he's pitched including college he has walked 5.5 (6) per 9 innings. He's got a WHIP of 1.5. That's not good. 

30 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

The entire time he's pitched including college he has walked 5.5 (6) per 9 innings. He's got a WHIP of 1.5. That's not good. 

That's true, but the last time he took the mound officially in college was in fall league baseball, during 2022. That's nearly two years in the past. The last time he pitched in an SEC game was in the spring of 2022, which will be over three years away from his 2025 season debut. That was as a Sophomore. We're well beyond that being a relevant data point. I think we should be using his Cub data exclusively here.

While I understand you feel as though a 1.5 WHIP is a telling statistic, I would caution us from using it as a data point to suggest he "can not throw strikes". First, WHIP just isn't a very useful statistic for our purposes. Yes, WHIP does include walks, but it also includes hits. Hits against the MiLB level are misleading - you're dealing with a lot of players learning positions, going through growing pains. You're not playing in front of an elite defense. We have better data points than WHIP today. 

But let's put that aside for a moment and let's use WHIP. How did Wiggins do comparative to his two age levels in 2024? His ACL numbers were pretty bad, but I'm not going to use them here for two reasons: first, these were clearly tune up sessions for a pitcher coming off a year and a half of being layed up. Secondly, he clearly improved later and this data set is a very heavy outlier.

Jaxon Wiggins (Low-A): .81 WHIP 
Jaxon Wiggins (High-A): 1.42 WHIP

Low-A League average: 1.38 WHIP
High - A League average: 1.32 WHIP

So even if we ant to put aside the issues we should have with WHIP in general, it's not even suggesting he's somehow bad. He was amazing at Low-A and at High-A his WHIP was .1 higher than league average. To put that in perspective, over the course of 31.2 IP. that's less than a full baserunner. If he pitched a full slate of 150 IP, that is around 15 base runners, or one extra over every 10 innings. That is an incredibly small difference and one easily made up for with strong K% and ground ball rates that will eliminate runners by the double-play.

In the end, I don't see anything to support an idea that he can't throw strikes. Again, I think it's fair to point out that his strike throwing can improve and that it's going to be something to monitor. But that is very different to how strongly you've presented his strike throwing issues.

Also, look at the names behind Wiggins on the list. This is the point in a prospect ranking where everyone has a fatal flaw that will probably tank their ability to be a productive major leaguer.  

We've known all along that control/command will be the bellwether for Wiggins, he's made some small strides and has reasons to at least hope for more(full injury recovery, limited college/pro developmental time due to the injury).  I would put Birdsell ahead of him on a list today, but it's not outrageous to shuffle a bunch of the names around at this point.  They're all likely to fail from an actuarial standpoint, shouting 'this guy isn't gonna do it' is uninteresting.

I like Wiggins a lot and am excited to see if he can continue to build with a strong 2025. I like all the info and thought 1908 put into this report and the follow-up comments. There's real bullpen risk, but he has a lot of the pieces in place to take the next step. And like TT said, I don't know if there's anyone behind him that's easily worthy of taking this spot in the rankings. Once you get past the top 5, it's kind of a crapshoot based on personal preference. I too like Birdsell a lot but he has warts. I like Derniche but he's so young and far away it's hard to predict what he'll be.

I get what everyone is saying but he’s done exactly nothing to support being in the top 10 other than getting drafted high. 

23 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I get what everyone is saying but he’s done exactly nothing to support being in the top 10 other than getting drafted high. 

He struck out 30% of hitters he faced, maintained a GB% over 50%, and gave up 2 HR in over 50 innings.  The walks color all of that but again that's why he's in the 'talented but flawed' echelon of prospects.  You're talking about him like he's so wild that it's all stuff no results, and that was not the case.

11 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Way too high on this guy. He can't throw strikes. 

A lot of posters have commented on this already.  Good discussion, I’ll add to it. 

I see what you’re saying, but I think you’re hyper focused on one lifetime stat. You’re ignoring the big picture. He was drafted based on raw top end talent and potential over production. Having some ugly stats his first season is completely understandable. 

His prospect status is much more nuanced than his lifetime WHIP since HS. His college WHIP is pretty much irrelevant now. All of his stats, including WHIP, were much better his first year in the minors then his two years in college.

His improvement throughout the season was substantial. He had 5-6 starts in A-ball and was very good. When promoted to A+, he struggled. He got better and his last two starts were dominant: 

10IP, 4H, 5BB, 17K, 1ER, .9 ERA, .9 WHIP

This is the guy who’s the #9 prospect.

5 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

He struck out 30% of hitters he faced, maintained a GB% over 50%, and gave up 2 HR in over 50 innings.  The walks color all of that but again that's why he's in the 'talented but flawed' echelon of prospects.  You're talking about him like he's so wild that it's all stuff no results, and that was not the case.

Most of the guys behind him aren't the most exciting prospects.  I agree the GB% has been really good so far.

I think arguing that he can't throw strikes is totally accurate though.  His BB/9 with the Cubs last year was the same as his seasons in college.  They went high-risk, high-reward with that draft pick, is what it is.  At least he's not Burl Carraway.

Woof Burl Carraway. Now that's a guy who couldn't throw strikes. Is he still in the system or just gone forever?

12 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

Woof Burl Carraway. Now that's a guy who couldn't throw strikes. Is he still in the system or just gone forever?

Burl is still a member of the Chicago Cubs organization. Missed 2024 with arm injuries. I don't see anywhere that his contract has been terminated since being activated from the 60-day IL, but also wouldn't be surprised to see his name pop up as an MiLB FA at some point either. 

10 hours ago, Stratos said:

I think arguing that he can't throw strikes is totally accurate though.  His BB/9 with the Cubs last year was the same as his seasons in college.

When you break down his season, his BB/9 was better with the Cubs.

As others pointed out last year was a rehab year for him. His first four starts were at the rookie complex, he was going through stuff. His IP/BB ratio was 7/12.

When the Cubs felt he was ready for MB (A ball), he was excellent the entire time. His IP/BB ratio was 21/5.

The Cubs moved him up to MB (A+) where he had eight starts. He struggled early, first two starts were tough. From reports he was overthrowing. He was up and down the next four starts and finished with two excellent games. The exact type of progress we're looking for.

All 'n all, this was a successful 60-inning first year in the minors for where he was coming from. He's there with Horton as a clear top two for best stuff in the system. That's why he's #9.