Offseason Top Prospect Lists

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA’s Cubs top 10 is out: https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/2005-chicago-cubs/prospects/?season=2025&ranking=preseason

1. Matt Shaw
2. Moisés Ballesteros
3. Cade Horton
4. Owen Caissie
5. Kevin Alcántara
6, Cam Smith
7, James Triantos
8, Jefferson Rojas
9. Brandon Birdsell
10. Jaxon Wiggins

[Outshined_One]

Not too far off from my own list, but their placement of Ballesteros is definitely an eyebrow raiser.

I mean, I get it if you think he can be a passable catcher in the majors next season, but it sounds like he's got a ways to go on that front.

[Bertz]

This is suspiciously normal.  Where's the signature BA nonsense?  Is Brailyn Marquez #11 or something.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

This is suspiciously normal.  Where's the signature BA nonsense?  Is Brailyn Marquez #11 or something.

They named Triantos the best defensive infielder in the system.

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

They named Triantos the best defensive infielder in the system.

I honest to god have no idea if this is a great joke or if you're being serious

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I honest to god have no idea if this is a great joke or if you're being serious

Serious, I am not a BA subscriber so possible I've been duped but saw a cropped screenshot of those superlatives and Triantos was the pick.

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Serious, I am not a BA subscriber so possible I've been duped but saw a cropped screenshot of those superlatives and Triantos was the pick.

You know what, kudos to them for keeping me on my toes.  They knew I was braced for something like Chase Strumpf at #14 but they had another trick up their sleeve.

[Donzo]

2 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Serious, I am not a BA subscriber so possible I've been duped but saw a cropped screenshot of those superlatives and Triantos was the pick.

That would be an amzing defensive improvement.

Triantos breaks his scouting report more than anyone else. Per his previous reports, he was a slow fringy 2B. Now he's stealing 47 bases and is the top defensive prospect in the system.

Frankly, I don't know what to make of him?!? 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

5 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Serious, I am not a BA subscriber so possible I've been duped but saw a cropped screenshot of those superlatives and Triantos was the pick.

They did. The correct answer is probably Ed Howard but they did make note that Triantos’ defense improved tremendously this season, especially because of mechanics and footwork. I wouldn’t be shocked if it also helped that he’s another season removed from knee surgery and his SB numbers back up his athleticism.

(Also the Cubs upgraded BA writers, going from Glaser who *hated* Triantos - to Geoff Pontes.)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Other notes from Pontes’ chat:

• Long is likely the Cubs #11 prospect
• Will Sanders and Erian Rodríguez are the next two pitching prospects on the list.
• Drew Gray and Brody McCullough have great FB shape but are lacking in velocity
• Cristian Hernández’ reports and data are trending up  while the Fernando Cruz reports are trending down
• Added screenshots of questions and answers about Ty Southisene/Eli Lovich and Pedro Ramírez  

[Bertz]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting-the-players-added-to-40-man-rosters/

It's not a full team re-rank but Longenhagen dropped Caissie down to a 45 FV.

[muntjack]

Gtfo

[Post Count Padder]

I know Caissie didn't put up the HR numbers this year some may have expected but that seems a bit reactionary given he still held his own fairly well as a 21 YO in AAA for the first time. 

[Jason Ross]

2 hours ago, Post Count Padder said:

I know Caissie didn't put up the HR numbers this year some may have expected but that seems a bit reactionary given he still held his own fairly well as a 21 YO in AAA for the first time. 

There's some really good things he did in the second half. Like, good things. Massively increased the LA, massively increased the ISO. Like, career best ISO over his 2nd half. He dropped some contact%, but I think it's part of the process change. 

I'm a Caissie stan, but dropping him to a 45 FV...I'll let Eric stay on an island there. I don't see a power decrease.

[Stratos]

On 11/21/2024 at 4:05 PM, Bertz said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting-the-players-added-to-40-man-rosters/

It's not a full team re-rank but Longenhagen dropped Caissie down to a 45 FV.

If you're 21 and hit like he did including the power #s as his first season in AAA i think that's an achievement for him.  Much more experienced and craftier league with pitchers who have competed in the MLB.  I can't see how opinions about him would change much if at all based on 2024.

With his power, nice swing & approach, and selectivity i think he has a solid chance to hit with success in the MLB even with the Ks, which often just comes with power guys.

The fielding, Ks, and gangly running are what may hold back his upside potential, not the power.

[Bertz]

 

I need to read the writeups still but Longenhagen gave the system a pretty noticeable bump down from mid-season.

[Outshined_One]

Quote

Shaw sometimes struggles with throwing accuracy and he lacks laser-like arm strength from deep in the hole, but he is otherwise growing into a tremendous third base defender. His lightning-quick exchange helps him shamelessly throw two- and three-hoppers to first base on those deeper throws, his range is exceptional, and he’s capable of some very acrobatic stuff. Especially if his feel for throwing from third continues to improve, his ceiling as a defender there is very high.

[Bertz]

I think for me the thing this reinforces is how soft the middle third of the pipeline is.  And losing Cam Smith certainly doesn't help that.

Iowa is stacked.  You've got the meat of this list, plus young talent that doesn't technically qualify for the list like Wicks and Brown.

Myrtle Beach and the Complex Leagues are a lot of fun.  You have a solid wave of LatAm hitters plus the trio of fun high schoolers from last year's draft.  Pitching looks a a bit weak on account of last year's draft being all bats, but there's some guys like Mule worth paying attention to.

South Bend and Tenn though are real light though.  Jefferson Rojas and YMMV on Jaxon Wiggins are the only top 10 guys in the system across those two levels.  You've got some 10-20 guys in Mathis, Cristian Hernandez, and maybe a brief cameo from Jonny Long.  But mostly the rosters are filled with non prospects or low ceiling tweeners like Brett Bateman.

So to me I think one of two things probably needs to happen.  Probably both actually, and I think Michael Busch is a good example to hold up.

One is that I think we need to get comfortable with some guys just keeping warm at Iowa.  Someone like Moises Ballesteros might just need to rack up ~1000 PAs at AAA before he gets a permanent spot in MLB.  The big league team needs to maximize wins in the short term, but also needs some optionable depth down at Iowa.  Even if he's running a 150 wRC+ "call him up" and "trade him" are not the only two options.

The other is to explore a Michael Busch style trade from the other direction.  Let's imagine a dream scenario where a Kyle Tucker extension gets done,  PCA's bat proves legit, and every cup of coffee Caissie and Alcantara get over the next year goes well.  Next winter really sets up for us to "trade back" with one of them and fill someone's near term outfield hole and pick up some impact talent further down the development ladder.

[We Got The Whole 9]

It feels like we have really good prospects ready to fill any spot as the contracts run out. Let's just say Triantos is not going anywhere.

 

Happ - Caissie

Seiya - Alcantara

Nico - Triantos

Amaya - Mo (If Amaya turns out to be middling)

 

 

 

That's beautifully set up to extend Tucker and see how well the rest of your guys compliment him. Your entire offense would cost like 70-80M. Those players should bring comp picks or high trade return if it comes down to it. I really don't think the position player side should be much of any kind of issue. They will probably just draft a bunch of seniors then. 

 

For the pitching, they need to go hard over these next couple drafts on HS arms and they love the seniors and Friday Night pitchers, we know they will take those. 

 

I would be like 65/35 pitching to offense and then just keep pushing hard for IFAs. 

[UMFan83]

This read up was a little sobering at least.  Horton was 3rd on their list but mentioned being in the back end of the top 100 so I'm guessing at most the Cubs would have 4 prospects in their top 100?

Pretty low of Caissie too who I've been excited about.

I don't follow the prospects nearly as much as many of you do so just one somewhat uninformed person's reaction

[Bertz]

10 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

This read up was a little sobering at least.  Horton was 3rd on their list but mentioned being in the back end of the top 100 so I'm guessing at most the Cubs would have 4 prospects in their top 100?

Pretty low of Caissie too who I've been excited about.

I don't follow the prospects nearly as much as many of you do so just one somewhat uninformed person's reaction

Some of it is that Longenhagen just tends to have more of a glass-half-empty writing style ("here's what could go wrong" as opposed to "here's what could go right"), some of it is that yeah he just seems straight up lower on the group than over the summer.  TBD if it's just him or if it's industry-wide.

[CubinNY]

40 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

This read up was a little sobering at least.  Horton was 3rd on their list but mentioned being in the back end of the top 100 so I'm guessing at most the Cubs would have 4 prospects in their top 100?

Pretty low of Caissie too who I've been excited about.

I don't follow the prospects nearly as much as many of you do so just one somewhat uninformed person's reaction

Horton's lowest end projection is MLB pitcher. Unless injuries completely derail his career, he's going to be a major league pitcher for years. I don't know (and doubt) if he's ever really going to be a starting pitcher, but he can strike guys out. 

[muntjack]

This is quite the pumping of the brakes. Horton losing a grade makes sense.  Rojas, perhaps.  Caissie and Ballesteros at 45 is a bit much.   

[Jason Ross]

I know this is going to sound like "I don't like it so I'm ignoring it" but I just don't really understand Logenhagen's rankings, and I haven't really been a fan of them for a bit. Many times they fly in the face of what many others think. 

It's nice to have a contrasting view at times, so I don't wan to dismiss them...needless to say, I'm not sure I share the same view.

[We Got The Whole 9]

3 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I know this is going to sound like "I don't like it so I'm ignoring it" but I just don't really understand Logenhagen's rankings, and I haven't really been a fan of them for a bit. Many times they fly in the face of what many others think. 

It's nice to have a contrasting view at times, so I don't wan to dismiss them...needless to say, I'm not sure I share the same view.

Really didn't change my opinion on them or their standing at all. We all know that none of them were ever put in elite prospect tiers. They all have very noticeable aspects to their game that make ya go hmm. But they will be MLBers and likely very supplemental to the new squad. They will fit seamlessly. It's up to the Cubs to help develop their games to the MLB.