Mooney/Sharma: Cubs Wont Target Top FAs - Trades Instead

[Jason Ross]

New article in the Athletic today from Sharma and Mooney. Important notes:

Quote

Any talk about the hot seat, though, has to acknowledge that Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and general manager Carter Hawkins have consistently followed the long-term plan authorized by the Ricketts family, and worked within ownership’s budgetary parameters, trying to deliver sustained success instead of a one-year fluke.

The Cubs do not intend to deviate from this course, multiple sources told The Athletic

Quote

ruling out a pursuit of Juan Soto or Corbin Burnes even before all the baseball executives and agents checked out of the JW Marriott San Antonio Hill Country Resort and Spa. Rather than pursuing talent at the top of the free agent market, the Cubs appear positioned to make noise in the trade market.

Quote

And though the likes of Soto and Burnes are likely out of reach, more modest free-agent options could align with the Cubs. Travis d’Arnaud, the veteran catcher with 14 rounds of playoff experience, is on their radar. So is Roki Sasaki, the dynamic Japanese pitcher who might become available to MLB clubs this winter.

While I think some/most of this was expected, it's important to note a few things. First, that the Cubs plan is unlikely to change, and maybe ever. If Hoyer's one year remaining isn't an catalyst for change in terms of how he views roster building...this is probably the Jed Hoyer we're going to always see. For better or worse. 

A few name drops, neither are surprising, in Sasaki and d'Arnaud. Interesting to note Jed was talking up the Cubs' appeal to the Japanese market the other day and then this. It feels like some internal optimism on the Roki Sasaki front is occurring. Why that is, it's up to you. 

Does sound like the Cubs are looking more at the SP market via trade than in FA. So while we've been connected a handful of times by others (I think, speculatively) to Max Fried, it may just end up that the Cubs stray away from those types more so than we think.

[CubinNY]

I've said this multiple times and it's nice to have confirmation from the media. 

Jed is Tommy Boy's Tommy Boy. He is an extension of ownership. 

They have Wrigley and that's all they need to print money. 

[LBiittner]

34 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

New article in the Athletic today from Sharma and Mooney. Important notes:

While I think some/most of this was expected, it's important to note a few things. First, that the Cubs plan is unlikely to change, and maybe ever. If Hoyer's one year remaining isn't an catalyst for change in terms of how he views roster building...this is probably the Jed Hoyer we're going to always see. For better or worse. 

A few name drops, neither are surprising, in Sasaki and d'Arnaud. Interesting to note Jed was talking up the Cubs' appeal to the Japanese market the other day and then this. It feels like some internal optimism on the Roki Sasaki front is occurring. Why that is, it's up to you. 

Does sound like the Cubs are looking more at the SP market via trade than in FA. So while we've been connected a handful of times by others (I think, speculatively) to Max Fried, it may just end up that the Cubs stray away from those types more so than we think.

Thanks for our daily overdose of salt peter. (Not shooting the messenger)

[Rcal10]

28 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I've said this multiple times and it's nice to have confirmation from the media. 

Jed is Tommy Boy's Tommy Boy. He is an extension of ownership. 

They have Wrigley and that's all they need to print money. 

Him doing what ownership wants him to do is no different than any employee doing what his boss wants him to do. Deviating from what your boss wants you to do gets you fired in all types of work. No different in baseball. In fact, the reason Jed has the job is because he agreed to do what ownership wants him to do to build a team. 

[CubinNY]

Just now, Rcal10 said:

Him doing what ownership wants him to do is no different than any employee doing what his boss wants him to do. Deviating from what your boss wants you to do gets you fired in all types of work. No different in baseball. In fact, the reason Jed has the job is because he agreed to do what ownership wants him to do to build a team. 

what is the point of this post?

 

[17 Seconds]

31 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

what is the point of this post?

 

to lick boots, of course

[jersey cubs fan]

35 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Him doing what ownership wants him to do is no different than any employee doing what his boss wants him to do. Deviating from what your boss wants you to do gets you fired in all types of work. No different in baseball. In fact, the reason Jed has the job is because he agreed to do what ownership wants him to do to build a team. 

Quality management goes against ownership’s wishes constantly in the world of business and sports because owners by and large are oblivious to operational needs. And the good ones know that fact. 

[Bertz]

The Athletic Guys have been putting out a lot this week.  If you add it all up, I think this is the takeaway in terms of offseason plan/direction

- Starting pitcher is the top item on the to-do list and where the team plans to invest the most resources.  That probably means someone pretty top of market, but the team does trust their pitching development so it may end up someone mid market who they just really like (such as Imanaga).

- Pitching depth has been mentioned A LOT.  This certainty applies to the bullpen, where Jed said something to the extent of "we should just assume 3 relievers will get hurt in April again" but I wouldn't be surprised if it applies to SP as well.  I wonder if the big SP comes via trade if they do someone like Shane Bieber on top of that

- The team is looking to do some heavy lifting in trades.  That said if you circle back to Jed's end of season press conference, plus his last two big trades, he's mentioned that he prefers getting team control when giving up major talent 

- Catcher is a certainty to be addressed.  After Amaya's strong second half though it will no longer be someone like O'Hoppe, instead expect one of the veteran FAs like d'Arnaud, Jansen, or Kelly

- The team is not worried about Hoerner, so don't expect a starting caliber 2B addition.  They do want a LHH infielder for the bench though

- Nothing else about the offense has really been brought up.  So either the team is being tight lipped or it's low priority.  I would assume at minimum someone in the Patrick Wisdom mold is on the way?

 

[Jason Ross]

15 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The Athletic Guys have been putting out a lot this week.  If you add it all up, I think this is the takeaway in terms of offseason plan/direction

- Starting pitcher is the top item on the to-do list and where the team plans to invest the most resources.  That probably means someone pretty top of market, but the team does trust their pitching development so it may end up someone mid market who they just really like (such as Imanaga).

- Pitching depth has been mentioned A LOT.  This certainty applies to the bullpen, where Jed said something to the extent of "we should just assume 3 relievers will get hurt in April again" but I wouldn't be surprised if it applies to SP as well.  I wonder if the big SP comes via trade if they do someone like Shane Bieber on top of that

- The team is looking to do some heavy lifting in trades.  That said if you circle back to Jed's end of season press conference, plus his last two big trades, he's mentioned that he prefers getting team control when giving up major talent 

- Catcher is a certainty to be addressed.  After Amaya's strong second half though it will no longer be someone like O'Hoppe, instead expect one of the veteran FAs like d'Arnaud, Jansen, or Kelly

- The team is not worried about Hoerner, so don't expect a starting caliber 2B addition.  They do want a LHH infielder for the bench though

- Nothing else about the offense has really been brought up.  So either the team is being tight lipped or it's low priority.  I would assume at minimum someone in the Patrick Wisdom mold is on the way?

 

Just to clarify, when you say top of the market, are you including FA? Especially this article, it feels very much that we should not expect the Cubs to be in the upper tier in that aspect: no Burnes, and I'm pretty confident no Fried. I suspect, especially with the other article (and this one) where they're talking about their scouting and analytics that if they go FA for a pitcher that the pitcher is going to be someone they can work with and build up. Unless that top of the market is Sasaki, but he's only top of the market talent wise. In terms of cost, he's basically free.

I do think they'll go after almost every and all of the best SP's who are available via trade. "Aggressively pursuit" was used by the Athletic boys, and while they rarely let their guard down in terms of very specifics, their veil can be more transparent, IMO, on wording and phrasing. Usually when they say things, it's good stuff to tuck away. 

So while I think they'll pass on being aggressive on Fried or Burnes, I could see Crotchet or a Mariners SP, or even a SP we don't super expect on the market to be guys they target. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If I'm reading between the lines, I think the Cubs probably like Burnes but they do not hold out any hope they will like the contract he gets enough to pursue him.  I think they have greater optimism about Fried(there's a lot of independent connections between the Cubs and Fried for early November), but they're not gonna go beyond the pale to get him specifically, and that's where the trade market and possibly any next step down guys they especially like come in.

 

I am just so curious what they manage to do from a trade perspective.  I feel like I've canvassed nearly every team's roster resource page already this offseason, but the last 2 big trades were not a surprise in the way they helped the roster, but were very much surprises in how(Busch was a production gamble, Paredes I did not think would be available).  And given the weight given to trade mentions and the near universal sentiment that we should see a hotter trade market in general, I'm wondering if multiple trades or a single trade for multiple roles is the most likely path this offseason.

[We Got The Whole 9]

FA only really excites me if we grab Sasaki. I'm really excited to see what trades he has in mind.

[Jason Ross]

21 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

If I'm reading between the lines, I think the Cubs probably like Burnes but they do not hold out any hope they will like the contract he gets enough to pursue him.  I think they have greater optimism about Fried(there's a lot of independent connections between the Cubs and Fried for early November), but they're not gonna go beyond the pale to get him specifically, and that's where the trade market and possibly any next step down guys they especially like come in.

 

I am just so curious what they manage to do from a trade perspective.  I feel like I've canvassed nearly every team's roster resource page already this offseason, but the last 2 big trades were not a surprise in the way they helped the roster, but were very much surprises in how(Busch was a production gamble, Paredes I did not think would be available).  And given the weight given to trade mentions and the near universal sentiment that we should see a hotter trade market in general, I'm wondering if multiple trades or a single trade for multiple roles is the most likely path this offseason.

Based on the usage of "aggressively pursuit" a trade, I like the idea that the Cubs will be on the front foot, and not the back. For the gripes I have with Hoyer, one thing I think he's gotten a pretty clean record on, is when it comes to trades. I'm interested to see what he cooks up when he's truly aggressive on the trade front, and in a situation where we have to assume his job is a bit on the line here. Trading for a controllable player, with $45m or so in the war chest will allow him to basically go in any direction he sees fit. And it won't be really a place where you can hide behind a fear of the future contract (which is where I think a lot of the hesitancy in FA comes from) dragging into a player's twilight years. 

This kind of feels like "the world is your oyster, Jed" and it'll be interesting to see what a motivated, and well stocked Jed Hoyer does. 

[Bertz]

I'm becoming pretty adamantly two starters pilled.  One via trade one via FA.

- It makes settling in FA less problematic.  For instance Nate Eovaldi as a big fish is a very disappointing offseason.  Nate Eovaldi paired with any the Mariners is one hell of a rotation upgrade

- Similarly, you can feel empowered to be a bit more creative in the trade.  For instance, I love Trueblood's Griffin Jax idea.  But you simply cannot do that and then consider the rotation finished.  You can't really even just pair him with a boring innings eater.  As tantalizing as the upside is, it's a move where you have to insulate yourself both on innings and performance

- Aside from catcher, where the market sucks, and some bench/bullpen spots (where playing time make racking up WAR tough) Assad as a definite SP is pretty clearly the weakest link on the roster

- It's a way to use some of the asset depth at Iowa while still adding a longer term asset

- It can be done somewhat independently of anything else, it's not something that e.g. only works if you can sign Alex Bregman first

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

8 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I'm becoming pretty adamantly two starters pilled.  One via trade one via FA.

- It makes settling in FA less problematic.  For instance Nate Eovaldi as a big fish is a very disappointing offseason.  Nate Eovaldi paired with any the Mariners is one hell of a rotation upgrade

- Similarly, you can feel empowered to be a bit more creative in the trade.  For instance, I love Trueblood's Griffin Jax idea.  But you simply cannot do that and then consider the rotation finished.  You can't really even just pair him with a boring innings eater.  As tantalizing as the upside is, it's a move where you have to insulate yourself both on innings and performance

- Aside from catcher, where the market sucks, and some bench/bullpen spots (where playing time make racking up WAR tough) Assad as a definite SP is pretty clearly the weakest link on the roster

- It's a way to use some of the asset depth at Iowa while still adding a longer term asset

- It can be done somewhat independently of anything else, it's not something that e.g. only works if you can sign Alex Bregman first

 

I'm coming around on that too, though I think the path may be something like a trade for an SP that isn't making 15+ million paired with Bieber.