Levine: Cubs and Mariners Chatting

[Bertz]

 

 

Quote

In addition to free agency, the trade market is the other route for the Cubs to acquire a starting pitcher this offseason. The pitching-rich Mariners may be a trade match and could be interested in the talented young infielders coming through the Cubs’ system such as Matt Shaw and James Triantos. Hoyer was seen talking with Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry DiPoto on Wednesday after the sessions at the GM Meetings had broken off for the morning.

 

[Bertz]

With the way that it's so easy to fit Shaw onto the roster in addition to his actual resume, he's pretty close to untouchable for me.

But for any of the Mariners young guys?  For them we can talk.

[Rex Buckingham]

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

With the way that it's so easy to fit Shaw onto the roster in addition to his actual resume, he's pretty close to untouchable for me.

But for any of the Mariners young guys?  For them we can talk.

I think I'd only include Shaw if either Gilbert or Kirby is coming back. Feels like Miller and Woo aren't on that level, and the Cubs have enough other good prospects (like Triantos) that they could make those deals happen

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Shaw is the most untradeable prospect in the system by a decent length for me, but for a shot at Gilbert or especially Kirby I'd have to put that conviction to the test.  The extent of the '+' in 'Shaw +' probably would make me (and Jed) blink, but fun to think about.

EDIT:  I'll also come back to the idea that if the Mariners are serious about trading a SP, Luis Castillo feels the most likely to be a Cub.  The money he's owed feels like the sweet spot of not being too rich for Jed if they're interested but more of a primary motivation for DiPoto which would keep the trade cost to a minimum(further interesting Jed).

[muntjack]

These teams are such an obvious fit for each other.   

[Post Count Padder]

Like I said in another thread, I really don't want to part with Shaw because he fills a need for us soon too. And we have OF prospects for days. The Mariners are constantly in need of power and Haniger was not it, nor was it Arozarena after the deadline. I think Caissie and Triantos and BJ Murray could be part of a deal there, with other pieces involved obviously. 

[Bertz]

I'm going to stump for Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo a bit.  I do not at all consider them consolation prizes

Bryce Miller:

- Is one of only 21 pitchers to top 180 innings last year.  He started 29 games last year (major plus minors) and 26 the year before that.  It is about as clean of an arm as you'll find, and at 26 should be past the first "injury nexus"

- Among pitchers with at least 100 innings last year, Miller is 14th in Stuff+ overall, and 4th on his fastball specifically.  If you don't like the pitch models, he's 33rd in just pure fastball velo, two spots behind Zack Wheeler

- Throws a lot of strikes (75th percentile) and yet still gets a ton of swing and miss within the strike zone (74th percentile)

- The one singular negative I can find on him is some pretty stark home/road splits this year.  Given part of Safeco's deal is a wonky batters eye it's worth looking into more

Bryan Woo:

- Throws even more strikes than Miller, in fact is second in the league behind only Justin Steele.  His in zone swing and miss is pretty average (52nd percentile) but you could potentially juice that by simply not throwing such an overwhelming number of pitches in the zone and fishing for chase a bit more

- Seriously, he throws so many strikes.  His walk rate was the lowest in baseball this year

- Woo is 30th in Stuff+, and 39th in raw fastball velo

- You need more innings to be sure this is skill, but he to this point has generated a lot of soft contact

- Like Miller, there are some notable home/road splits.  It's not necessarily a problem, some people just find more comfort at home, but with Seattle being involved it raises an eyebrow

I would probably widen the ring of guys I'd move Shaw for to include Miller.  Woo, being a half step behind Miller pretty much all around, I think would be just outside.

But broadly Jed should absolutely look into all of these guys.  Getting one AND making a big FA splash would give you a rotation with a very good chance for being the best in the league while still leaving resources for the other items on the offseason to-do list.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think the risk with Miller is there's a little less track record, he was middling in 2023.  So you're definitely taking the chance on a guy a year early vs at peak value.  That could pay off, because the cost for Kirby/Gilbert is probably one significant piece more than Miller(maybe 2 for Kirby), and you'd hope that any pitch dev ideas you have for Miller hedge that risk, but you would have more confidence in Gilbert/Kirby's baseline.

[KCCub]

What's the chances the Cubs sign a higher end SP (Fried) and also trade for a Woo/Miller? I'm on the Gilbert/Kirby train, but if a Woo/Miller is our secondary SP add this off-season I would absolutely be on board with that. 

[Post Count Padder]

12 minutes ago, KCCub said:

What's the chances the Cubs sign a higher end SP (Fried) and also trade for a Woo/Miller? I'm on the Gilbert/Kirby train, but if a Woo/Miller is our secondary SP add this off-season I would absolutely be on board with that. 

Feels unlikely to me. You get Fried or one of the Mariners guys then you have:

Shota, Steele, Taillon, Acquisition, Assad or one of Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Wesneski, Killian, Cade Horton (?). That's solid depth that I'm comfortable with. It's possible they add another swing guy like Smyly who can be a depth starter but I don't think two big starters is a priority given needs elsewhere.

[We Got The Whole 9]

2 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

Feels unlikely to me. You get Fried or one of the Mariners guys then you have:

Shota, Steele, Taillon, Acquisition, Assad or one of Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Wesneski, Killian, Cade Horton (?). That's solid depth that I'm comfortable with. It's possible they add another swing guy like Smyly who can be a depth starter but I don't think two big starters is a priority given needs elsewhere.

How are you at all comfortable with that depth aside from Assad? They don't even know or won't say what's going on with Brown's neck, Horton was ineffective and unavailable. I mean really, we don't want Wes or Killian to make any starts. Assad and Wicks are a good piggy back for certain situations, would be quite excellent to have as the 6th and 7th guys in the staff. If he can trade for Crochet or someone with a minuscule salary I can see it. 

[Post Count Padder]

1 minute ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

How are you at all comfortable with that depth aside from Assad? They don't even know or won't say what's going on with Brown's neck, Horton was ineffective and unavailable. I mean really, we don't want Wes or Killian to make any starts. Assad and Wicks are a good piggy back for certain situations, would be quite excellent to have as the 6th and 7th guys in the staff. If he can trade for Crochet or someone with a minuscule salary I can see it. 

It's a fair point (and I'd also toss in Birdsell as someone I've got my eye on for a MLB debut in 2025). I guess I'm saying I'm comfortable if that's all we do and two No. 2 or 3 starters isn't a necessity, unless later in the offseason other pieces have fallen into place and the prices drop.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Signing a QO FA SP and trading significant assets for another is a lot of player capital used when you do have decent depth.  Assad, Wicks, Brown, Wesneski, Horton, Birdsell as options 5-10 is not a problem, especially if you fortify the pen that you don't have to use those folks there outside of long relief if desired.

There's 2 situations where I could see them adding 2 SP.  One is if Sasaki is posted and they win the race for him, since he's functionally free in both player and financial terms.  The other is if they like a SP and he carries a similar cost as one of the RP they would be adding anyway.  Beefing the rotation and leaning on Brown and Wesneski in particular out of the pen as needed is fine, it's just not very certain you can find that SP target/RP target equivalency.

[Bertz]

8 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

Feels unlikely to me. You get Fried or one of the Mariners guys then you have:

Shota, Steele, Taillon, Acquisition, Assad or one of Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Wesneski, Killian, Cade Horton (?). That's solid depth that I'm comfortable with. It's possible they add another swing guy like Smyly who can be a depth starter but I don't think two big starters is a priority given needs elsewhere.

I'd presume at least one of those SPs would go back to Seattle in a deal, so it'd be sort of depth-neutral.  What you'd be doing is adding talent (or at minimum certainty) to that 5th starter spot.

Given how settled things are on the position player side, I tend to think it's actually one of the most effective ways to bulk add wins to this roster.

[KCCub]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I'd presume at least one of those SPs would go back to Seattle in a deal, so it'd be sort of depth-neutral.  What you'd be doing is adding talent (or at minimum certainty) to that 5th starter spot.

Given how settled things are on the position player side, I tend to think it's actually one of the most effective ways to bulk add wins to this roster.

This is where I’m at. They’re adding a veteran catcher, a bench bat, and a leverage BP piece. Outside of just loading up the bullpen, I don’t see any other gains to be made. 

[harmony]

On 11/6/2024 at 4:07 PM, Rex Buckingham said:

I think I'd only include Shaw if either Gilbert or Kirby is coming back. Feels like Miller and Woo aren't on that level, and the Cubs have enough other good prospects (like Triantos) that they could make those deals happen

FWIW Baseball Trade Values assigns Matt Shaw a surplus value of $23.9 million and Nico Hoerner a surplus value of $19.4 million while assigning four Seattle starters the following surplus values: George Kirby ($111.4 million), Logan Gilbert ($65.6 million), Bryce Miller ($50.8 million) and Bryan Woo ($50.5 million).

After averaging 88+ wins over the past four seasons Seattle is unlikely to trade an established cost-controlled starter for a package of lesser assets.

[Bertz]

9 hours ago, harmony said:

FWIW Baseball Trade Values assigns Matt Shaw a surplus value of $23.9 million and Nico Hoerner a surplus value of $19.4 million while assigning four Seattle starters the following surplus values: George Kirby ($111.4 million), Logan Gilbert ($65.6 million), Bryce Miller ($50.8 million) and Bryan Woo ($50.5 million).

After averaging 88+ wins over the past four seasons Seattle is unlikely to trade an established cost-controlled starter for a package of lesser assets.

Yeah Jerry HATES making trades

[LBiittner]

I'm wondering why Seattle mariner pundits are suggesting Hoerner + Neely is equal to emmerson hancock?

Perhaps somebody who follows minor league players can offer scouting reports on hancock?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I'm wondering why Seattle mariner pundits are suggesting Hoerner + Neely is equal to emmerson hancock?

Perhaps somebody who follows minor league players can offer scouting reports on hancock?

The source for that is a random Fansided post, which is basically as high quality or plugged into the team as you or I going 'what about this trade'?

[LBiittner]

8 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The source for that is a random Fansided post, which is basically as high quality or plugged into the team as you or I going 'what about this trade'?

Got it, thanks. So someday I might read a "according to insiders, cubs want to offload belli for yankee has been" 

[Tryptamine]

3 hours ago, LBiittner said:

I'm wondering why Seattle mariner pundits are suggesting Hoerner + Neely is equal to emmerson hancock?

Perhaps somebody who follows minor league players can offer scouting reports on hancock?

Hancock wouldn't even make the Cub rotation if the season started today. His names carries value based on his draft position, but he's been disappointing since then and especially hot garbage the last season and a half. 

[LBiittner]

5 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Hancock wouldn't even make the Cub rotation if the season started today. His names carries value based on his draft position, but he's been disappointing since then and especially hot garbage the last season and a half. 

I wondered why I'd never read his name here as speculation 

[Backtobanks]

Since the Mariners are really interested in Hoerner, I wonder if they would do Hoerner + Alcantara + Palencia for their closer Munoz.  Baseballtradevalue.com shows us overpaying, but it might be worth it to get a young, cheap, and proven closer.

[Cuzi]

3 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Since the Mariners are really interested in Hoerner, I wonder if they would do Hoerner + Alcantara + Palencia for their closer Munoz.  Baseballtradevalue.com shows us overpaying, but it might be worth it to get a young, cheap, and proven closer.

No shot the Cubs are trading a 4 fWAR 2B, one of their best prospects, and a dude with a 98 mph fastball for 60 innings of a closer.

[Backtobanks]

How about Hoerner + Alcantara +Wesneski + Thaiss for Miller + Garver.