NSBB 2005 Top 50 Prospects

[Tim]

I just answered these questions in the other thread. :D

 

Thanks for the answers Tim. Could you explain a little more what happened to Nic Johnson, and if there seems to be any hope of him making a ML impact at any time?

Nic Jackson has had several different injuries plague him the past few years. The big one was when he splintered his shin bone when he fouled a ball off of it just a bit into the 2003 AA season. Then he missed most of last year with shoulder problems stemming from a head first slide into third base in the first game of the AAA season.

 

Nick Johnson is a first baseman for Washington, btw.

[MattyJLCC]

I just answered these questions in the other thread. :D

 

Thanks for the answers Tim. Could you explain a little more what happened to Nic Johnson, and if there seems to be any hope of him making a ML impact at any time?

Nic Jackson has had several different injuries plague him the past few years. The big one was when he splintered his shin bone when he fouled a ball off of it just a bit into the 2003 AA season. Then he missed most of last year with shoulder problems stemming from a head first slide into third base in the first game of the AAA season.

 

Nick Johnson is a first baseman for Washington, btw.

 

yeah, I was asking about Jackson...sorry for the name mixup. I do like Nick Johnson too though now that you mention him.

[goonys evil twin]

How long before we start getting worried about Dopirak?

 

Can you really be a top prospect while hitting .278 .305 .456 in high A ball? 19 K's, 3 BB. Add to that his 5 errors already this month.

 

Does anybody disagree that those are disappointing numbers? I hope he shoots up the leaderboard this month.

[rawaction]

How long before we start getting worried about Dopirak?

 

Can you really be a top prospect while hitting .278 .305 .456 in high A ball? 19 K's, 3 BB. Add to that his 5 errors already this month.

 

Does anybody disagree that those are disappointing numbers? I hope he shoots up the leaderboard this month.

 

Well, maybe we can start getting worried tomorrow. 2-3 today with his 5th Dope slap and maybe most importantly, 2 walks.

[Tim]

How long before we start getting worried about Dopirak?

 

Can you really be a top prospect while hitting .278 .305 .456 in high A ball? 19 K's, 3 BB. Add to that his 5 errors already this month.

 

Does anybody disagree that those are disappointing numbers? I hope he shoots up the leaderboard this month.

 

Well, maybe we can start getting worried tomorrow. 2-3 today with his 5th Dope slap and maybe most importantly, 2 walks.

Moore is tied for third with six home runs. Dope really isn't far off the pace of the league leaders (other than Harper).

[rawaction]

I love the early season. After his day today, Dopirak is at:

 

.290, .327, .495

 

A 61 point jump in OPS. K/BB ratio gone from over 6:1 to under 4:1.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I really don't worry about Dope's power, but especially not this early in the season. The walks are good to see. :)

[goonys evil twin]

How long before we start getting worried about Dopirak?

 

Can you really be a top prospect while hitting .278 .305 .456 in high A ball? 19 K's, 3 BB. Add to that his 5 errors already this month.

 

Does anybody disagree that those are disappointing numbers? I hope he shoots up the leaderboard this month.

 

Well, maybe we can start getting worried tomorrow. 2-3 today with his 5th Dope slap and maybe most importantly, 2 walks.

Moore is tied for third with six home runs. Dope really isn't far off the pace of the league leaders (other than Harper).

 

They already played today? Nice turn of events.

 

I'm not really interested in his place on the HR leaderboard. Totals don't really tell you much. I'm much more interested in the AVG/OBP/SLG line, and even with today's numbers he's nowhere near the top of the league.

[Tim]

How long before we start getting worried about Dopirak?

 

Can you really be a top prospect while hitting .278 .305 .456 in high A ball? 19 K's, 3 BB. Add to that his 5 errors already this month.

 

Does anybody disagree that those are disappointing numbers? I hope he shoots up the leaderboard this month.

 

Well, maybe we can start getting worried tomorrow. 2-3 today with his 5th Dope slap and maybe most importantly, 2 walks.

Moore is tied for third with six home runs. Dope really isn't far off the pace of the league leaders (other than Harper).

 

They already played today? Nice turn of events.

 

I'm not really interested in his place on the HR leaderboard. Totals don't really tell you much. I'm much more interested in the AVG/OBP/SLG line, and even with today's numbers he's nowhere near the top of the league.

Check what Marte is doing so far this year: .253/.317/.453. I doubt he's going to lose his top-prospect status over a couple of cold weeks. Players go through adjustments at new levels.

 

If it's June and Dope's still got a similar line, then I'll start to worry.

[CoolHandLuke]

What is everyones thoughts about JR Mathes? I really like his K/BB, his BB/9 and his HR/9. He pitched pretty well at Boise last year after being drafted and he seems to be continuing where he left off this year with Daytona. I can't really find much information on him and if someone here can fill me in I would appreciate it.

[Outshined_One]

What is everyones thoughts about JR Mathes? I really like his K/BB, his BB/9 and his HR/9. He pitched pretty well at Boise last year after being drafted and he seems to be continuing where he left off this year with Daytona. I can't really find much information on him and if someone here can fill me in I would appreciate it.

 

Soft tossing lefty who was drafted as a senior out of college left year. He doesn't throw very hard, but considering he throws with his left hand, he could find himself as a journeyman reliever down the line.

[T2E]

What is everyones thoughts about JR Mathes? I really like his K/BB, his BB/9 and his HR/9. He pitched pretty well at Boise last year after being drafted and he seems to be continuing where he left off this year with Daytona. I can't really find much information on him and if someone here can fill me in I would appreciate it.

 

Here's what I wrote about him after the draft:

 

Round 16: J.R. Mathes Western Michigan University LHP

Scouting Report: Senior lefty listed at 6’3” 205, which for a lefty is certainly good size. He works with a sinking fastball that touches 89 and due to his age is unlikely to improve. But even with a fastball that only reaches the high-80’s, he was successful last year nonetheless. He went 6-4 last season as the Western Michigan ace while posting a 3.64 ERA, three complete games and 94 innings pitched. His peripheral numbers were good as well: he whiffed 87 batter while only walking 19 and his sinker worked as evidence by his 4 HR’s allowed. He tossed a shutout and an eight inning 2 run effort against Purdue. Because he doesn’t blow batters away, he’ll need to rely on keeping the ball in the park and making the opposition put the ball in play. As a senior, he should be an easy sign.

Personal Analysis: Low-risk, low-reward. Mathes isn’t a guy you project for a frontline starter and as a senior he’ll need to move fast. Due to the cubs outstanding core of arms he may find himself in the bullpen. Making the majors would be an overcoming of odds, and he might find himself as a journeyman in a few years.

 

Mathes was excellent facing younger hitters in Boise last year, so it's good to see him pitch well against a more age appropriate hitters. I think his future is probably in the bullpen. He's still fairly old, but he's a lefty, so he'll get his chance.

[CoolHandLuke]

Thanks. It seems like he is the type of guy the cubs don't like (lack of stuff) but I really like guys who can throw strikes.

[goonys evil twin]

How long before we start getting worried about Dopirak?

 

Can you really be a top prospect while hitting .278 .305 .456 in high A ball? 19 K's, 3 BB. Add to that his 5 errors already this month.

 

Does anybody disagree that those are disappointing numbers? I hope he shoots up the leaderboard this month.

 

Well, maybe we can start getting worried tomorrow. 2-3 today with his 5th Dope slap and maybe most importantly, 2 walks.

Moore is tied for third with six home runs. Dope really isn't far off the pace of the league leaders (other than Harper).

 

They already played today? Nice turn of events.

 

I'm not really interested in his place on the HR leaderboard. Totals don't really tell you much. I'm much more interested in the AVG/OBP/SLG line, and even with today's numbers he's nowhere near the top of the league.

Check what Marte is doing so far this year: .253/.317/.453. I doubt he's going to lose his top-prospect status over a couple of cold weeks. Players go through adjustments at new levels.

 

If it's June and Dope's still got a similar line, then I'll start to worry.

 

It is July 5 and Dope's line is ugly: .247/.294/.360

 

Brian went from 23 to 1 on NSBB's top prospect list between 2004 and 2005. If he fails to improve his numbers this year, will he fall back as far? How about his reputation among the rest of the league, will he hold any value as trade bait? With guys like Cedeno, Murton, Pie and Sing producing solid numbers, it makes it easier to deal with Dopirak's struggles, but given this team's extremely poor history of developing hitters, and their lack of top notch offensive prospects in the pipeline, it's still tough to watch a guy we had such highs hopes for fail like he has this season.

 

Add in the fact that soon to be 21 year old Ryan Harvey isn't exactly threatening to challenge Dopirak's numbers from the Midwest League last year, and the concerns about this organization's ability to draft and develop competent hitters aren't going away.

[Tedward]

It is July 5 and Dope's line is ugly: .247/.294/.360

 

Brian went from 23 to 1 on NSBB's top prospect list between 2004 and 2005. If he fails to improve his numbers this year, will he fall back as far? How about his reputation among the rest of the league, will he hold any value as trade bait? With guys like Cedeno, Murton, Pie and Sing producing solid numbers, it makes it easier to deal with Dopirak's struggles, but given this team's extremely poor history of developing hitters, and their lack of top notch offensive prospects in the pipeline, it's still tough to watch a guy we had such highs hopes for fail like he has this season.

 

Add in the fact that soon to be 21 year old Ryan Harvey isn't exactly threatening to challenge Dopirak's numbers from the Midwest League last year, and the concerns about this organization's ability to draft and develop competent hitters aren't going away.

 

Here's the scouting report on Brian when he was drafted in 2002 from BA..

 

Dopirak can launch balls better than anyone in the draft, though he's still viewed as a hit-or-miss player who could hit 50 homers in the majors or wash out in Double-A. He's more of a free swinger than Fielder and his ability to make contact is uncertain. He's also less polished defensively than Fielder, and his body isn't particularly toned. He likes to show off his tattoos, which doesn't always endear him to scouts, but there's no denying his bat speed. A potential supplemental first-rounder, Dopirak almost certainly will sign rather than attend St. Petersburg JC.

 

I really hope it's just taking him a little longer to get adjusted to High A, but I'm starting to get concerned. Perhaps he'll need another year of High A and rebound next year, similar to what Scott Moore has been able to do thus far this season. That scouting report is making me a bit nervous though.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

While Harvey's line is a bit better, it's at a lower level and at a level Dope tore up:

 

.263/.316/.458, 66/16 SO-BB ratio.

 

Hopefully Dope and Harvey finish up the final two months of the season strong, but it's been a disappointing season thus far for those two. :(

[Outshined_One]

I wouldn't completely spaz out about Dopirak's and Harvey's numbers yet.

 

The thing about Dopirak right now is that his plate discipline has improved somewhat between this season and last. His K numbers are down, as are his BB numbers. Now, given that he hasn't been a major power threat this season, I'd expect the lower BB numbers as a by-product of pitchers giving him less free passes.

 

I don't have the dimensions of Daytona's home field nor do I have Dopirak's BABIP numbers offhand. However, from what I've seen, Dopirak's making plenty of contact this season. I wouldn't be surprised if he's just been the victim of bad luck the first half of the season. Conditions have been favorable for him to go on a hot streak and get his numbers up. We'll see if that happens this season.

 

Of course, the other possibility is that he's been battling injuries. That would help explain why his power numbers have gone down the tubes. His IsoP is sitting at .113. Last season is was at .286. You can speculate all you want as to why. However, I'm reserving judgment until after the season is over and we have a clearer picture of what happened to him.

 

Ryan Harvey, on the other hand, has 10 more ABs this season than he did last season as of July 4th. His lines:

 

2004 (AZL & NWL): 241 ABs, 43 R, 66 H, 11 2B, 0 3B, 14 HR, 48 RBI, 81 K, 20 BB, 2 SB

2005 (MWL): 251 ABs, 39 R, 66 H, 14 2B, 1 3B, 11 HR, 47 RBI, 16 BB, 66 K, 5 SB

 

So...I'm seeing fairly similar lines here, although 66 Ks is a pretty nice number compared to where they were last year. His slightly lower HR numbers are likely a by-product of seeing better pitching. Add in the fact that his 2Bs and 3Bs are up and his power numbers seem to be as expected.

 

Look, what Dopirak did last season was nothing short of phenomenal and should allow him to get a free pass for a season if he struggles. And to expect Ryan Harvey to basically replicate Dopirak's numbers in the MWL was putting way, way, way too much of a burden on him. Some people around here were doing that (myself included to an extent).

 

The bottom line is that both of these guys are raw power prospects. Brian's 21 and Ryan's 20 right now; meaning both are still pretty young. The Cubs have a surplus of guys ahead of them who can play OF and 1B. The last thing the Cubs want to do with these guys is to rush them through the system.

 

They can afford to be patient with them. If either has to repeat a season, oh well, it's not the end of the world.

 

There's still plenty of baseball left to be played. My advice is not to get antsy about either yet.

[Shawon12]

I wouldn't completely spaz out about Dopirak's and Harvey's numbers yet.

 

The thing about Dopirak right now is that his plate discipline has improved somewhat between this season and last. His K numbers are down, as are his BB numbers. Now, given that he hasn't been a major power threat this season, I'd expect the lower BB numbers as a by-product of pitchers giving him less free passes.

 

I don't have the dimensions of Daytona's home field nor do I have Dopirak's BABIP numbers offhand. However, from what I've seen, Dopirak's making plenty of contact this season. I wouldn't be surprised if he's just been the victim of bad luck the first half of the season. Conditions have been favorable for him to go on a hot streak and get his numbers up. We'll see if that happens this season.

 

Of course, the other possibility is that he's been battling injuries. That would help explain why his power numbers have gone down the tubes. His IsoP is sitting at .113. Last season is was at .286. You can speculate all you want as to why. However, I'm reserving judgment until after the season is over and we have a clearer picture of what happened to him.

 

Ryan Harvey, on the other hand, has 10 more ABs this season than he did last season as of July 4th. His lines:

 

2004 (AZL & NWL): 241 ABs, 43 R, 66 H, 11 2B, 0 3B, 14 HR, 48 RBI, 81 K, 20 BB, 2 SB

2005 (MWL): 251 ABs, 39 R, 66 H, 14 2B, 1 3B, 11 HR, 47 RBI, 16 BB, 66 K, 5 SB

 

So...I'm seeing fairly similar lines here, although 66 Ks is a pretty nice number compared to where they were last year. His slightly lower HR numbers are likely a by-product of seeing better pitching. Add in the fact that his 2Bs and 3Bs are up and his power numbers seem to be as expected.

 

Look, what Dopirak did last season was nothing short of phenomenal and should allow him to get a free pass for a season if he struggles. And to expect Ryan Harvey to basically replicate Dopirak's numbers in the MWL was putting way, way, way too much of a burden on him. Some people around here were doing that (myself included to an extent).

 

The bottom line is that both of these guys are raw power prospects. Brian's 21 and Ryan's 20 right now; meaning both are still pretty young. The Cubs have a surplus of guys ahead of them who can play OF and 1B. The last thing the Cubs want to do with these guys is to rush them through the system.

 

They can afford to be patient with them. If either has to repeat a season, oh well, it's not the end of the world.

 

There's still plenty of baseball left to be played. My advice is not to get antsy about either yet.

 

Dope...you don't think he...no, he wouldn't have been on...no,he seems too honest of a person.

Sorry, but my sources have made me very jaded. Let's hope he adjusts.

[burnt out cubbie fan]

Dope...you don't think he...no, he wouldn't have been on...no,he seems too honest of a person.

Sorry, but my sources have made me very jaded. Let's hope he adjusts.

What sources?

[Chris]

Dope...you don't think he...no, he wouldn't have been on...no,he seems too honest of a person.

Sorry, but my sources have made me very jaded. Let's hope he adjusts.

What sources?

 

Due to the fact that this site is in pursuit of landing prospects for Q & A sessions I personally feel that if a comment like that is going to be made then a source should be listed.

[Tim]

Dope...you don't think he...no, he wouldn't have been on...no,he seems too honest of a person.

Sorry, but my sources have made me very jaded. Let's hope he adjusts.

Oh, please. What is this, the McCarthy trials? The inquisition? Salem witch-hunt? I can't stand the wanton and unsupported accusations made against every baseball player having a down year.

 

Be prepared to back it up or don't say it at all.

[Shawon12]

Dope...you don't think he...no, he wouldn't have been on...no,he seems too honest of a person.

Sorry, but my sources have made me very jaded. Let's hope he adjusts.

What sources?

 

Due to the fact that this site is in pursuit of landing prospects for Q & A sessions I personally feel that if a comment like that is going to be made then a source should be listed.

 

I should have been more clear, I have no knowledge or source of Dope or any Cub farmhand taking Steriods. It was a general statement based on info from a family friend who is in the Yankees system who told me about 50% of the players he came to camp with in 2003 had or do use them. (I also have a friend in the Twins system who concurs) I'm speculating that this may be the same in other systems. I guess I'm guilty of having my doubts without having evidence. But, in my opinion, to rule out Steriods would be nuts. I hope he finishes strong and becomes the top prospect we believe he is.

[Shawon12]

Dope...you don't think he...no, he wouldn't have been on...no,he seems too honest of a person.

Sorry, but my sources have made me very jaded. Let's hope he adjusts.

Oh, please. What is this, the McCarthy trials? The inquisition? Salem witch-hunt? I can't stand the wanton and unsupported accusations made against every baseball player having a down year.

 

Be prepared to back it up or don't say it at all.

 

Tim, feel free to delete my post, if possible. I do not want to cause trouble.

[Chris]

Dope...you don't think he...no, he wouldn't have been on...no,he seems too honest of a person.

Sorry, but my sources have made me very jaded. Let's hope he adjusts.

What sources?

 

Due to the fact that this site is in pursuit of landing prospects for Q & A sessions I personally feel that if a comment like that is going to be made then a source should be listed.

 

I should have been more clear, I have no knowledge or source of Dope or any Cub farmhand taking Steriods. It was a general statement based on info from a family friend who is in the Yankees system who told me about 50% of the players he came to camp with in 2003 had or do use them. (I also have a friend in the Twins system who concurs) I'm speculating that this may be the same in other systems. I guess I'm guilty of having my doubts without having evidence. But, in my opinion, to rule out Steriods would be nuts. I hope he finishes strong and becomes the top prospect we believe he is.

 

I personally prefer to give a guy the benefit of the doubt rather than concluding or speculating steroids as the reason. Yes the numbers may have been high in the past, but MLB is really cracking down on players using performance enhancing substances, especially the Minor League guys.

 

My only issue is that we are trying very hard to bring prospect interviews to NSBB. With that being said, it is very possible that players and personnel within the organization are looking at the site before making decisions on contributing. I would not like for a player to be turned off from the site.

[Tim]

Dope...you don't think he...no, he wouldn't have been on...no,he seems too honest of a person.

Sorry, but my sources have made me very jaded. Let's hope he adjusts.

What sources?

 

Due to the fact that this site is in pursuit of landing prospects for Q & A sessions I personally feel that if a comment like that is going to be made then a source should be listed.

 

I should have been more clear, I have no knowledge or source of Dope or any Cub farmhand taking Steriods. It was a general statement based on info from a family friend who is in the Yankees system who told me about 50% of the players he came to camp with in 2003 had or do use them. (I also have a friend in the Twins system who concurs) I'm speculating that this may be the same in other systems. I guess I'm guilty of having my doubts without having evidence. But, in my opinion, to rule out Steriods would be nuts. I hope he finishes strong and becomes the top prospect we believe he is.

 

I personally prefer to give a guy the benefit of the doubt rather than concluding or speculating steroids as the reason. Yes the numbers may have been high in the past, but MLB is really cracking down on players using performance enhancing substances, especially the Minor League guys.

 

My only issue is that we are trying very hard to bring prospect interviews to NSBB. With that being said, it is very possible that players and personnel within the organization are looking at the site before making decisions on contributing. I would not like for a player to be turned off from the site.

I think players understand that many fans are jaded right now because of the steroid issue and that it is something that will hang over the sport for a while. Players like Dopirak that are astonishingly strong are going to naturally attract more of the focus than someone like Theriot.

 

What I think people need to understand is that it isn't okay to accuse a particular player of steroid use simply because his power stats fall. There are a number of perfectly legitimate reasons that Brian's numbers could be falling off this season (difficulties with better breaking balls, league park factors, minor injuries, etc.). Just because there are known to be steroid users in the sport does not mean that we should single out individuals without more cause than a lack of power numbers. To suspect every power hitter in baseball of illicit drug use is nothing more than profiling.